Captain Kangaroo

For the record...I agree with the guy. Our RPI seems too high for our record and caliber of opponents. ************************************************************************ Fuzzy math shrouds NCAA hoops By JOHN KNOX Published , March 09, 2005, 06:00:01 AM EDT It's that time of year, when a sports fan's fancy turns to ... math. Mathematics helps determine which teams get invited to the Big Dance, the NCAA men's basketball tournament. Here's how it works: Unless your team gets an automatic slot (generally by winning a conference tournament), you need an at-large bid. The NCAA handles at-large bids the way colleges do admissions -- the insiders repeatedly reassure applicants that they aren't reduced to a number. But in the end, it's all about the numbers. With college admissions, the all-important number is the SAT. The NCAA selection committee uses the Ratings Percentage Index, or RPI. A low RPI, and you're in the tournament as an at-large team. A high RPI, and you're not. Like the SAT, the calculation of the RPI is a very ad-hoc, unjustified and unjustifiable process. The RPI formula is, according to the Web site (www.collegerpi.com): -- 25 percent team winning percentage -- 50 percent opponents' average winning percentage -- 25 percent opponents' opponents' average winning percentage. For the 2004-05 season, the formula was changed to give more weight to road wins vs. home wins. I'm blowing the whistle on this silly RPI formula. First of all, the RPI decouples a team's record from its performance in a game and from its opponent. If your team wins by 30 points on the road at Duke, it has the same impact in terms of winning percentage as a 1-point win at lowly Savannah State. Second, who decided that a road win is worth 40 percent more than a neutral-court win and should count 133 percent more than a road loss? That's excessive, given that statistics from other more sophisticated ratings schemes (see below) indicate that home court advantage is about four points. In effect, the RPI paradoxically rewards losing on the road and winning at home. Proof from Tuesday's computer polls: Pittsburgh is 20-7 in the powerful Big East Conference and is a Top 25 team according to the human polls. But the Panthers are only No. 41 in the RPI. Why? Pittsburgh played only nine road games (but went 6-3) and earned one neutral-court win. Their actual winning percentage is .740, but by the RPI formula it's reduced to .699. The Panthers' home losses to probable Big Dancers such as UConn, West Virginia and Georgetown are killing them in the RPI. One spot ahead of Pittsburgh in the RPI at No. 40 is Akron. The Akron Zips? They're 17-9 and they play in the solid Mid-America Conference. But how is that better than 20-7 in the Big East? Easy, if you're the RPI: Akron played 13 road games (they went 5-8), half of their schedule. The road losses are minimized by the RPI. Meanwhile, the Zips' road wins are magnified even when they're against dogs like Marshall and Duquesne. And so Akron's actual winning percentage of .667 is boosted to .705 by the RPI formula, just ahead of Pittsburgh's. Winning percentage is only 25 percent of the overall RPI formula, true. But because the other 75 percent is based on other teams' winning percentages calculated by the same lousy formula, even a few fouled-up ratings contaminate the whole scheme from top to bottom. There should be a better way to quantify the quality of a basketball team. There is. More sophisticated algorithms have been devised that know when you beat a tough team on the road or lose to a crummy opponent at home, and which use advanced statistical methods to estimate a team's quality. One of the pioneers of this approach is Jeff Sagarin, an MIT graduate whose ratings are found in USA Today. In Sagarin's latest ratings, Pittsburgh is No. 27, Akron is No. 74. That makes a lot more sense to me. But on Selection Sunday, remember that dumb math may be behind some of the poor decisions of the NCAA selection committee

I don't have a problem with Coles. He had the Xavier and Purdue OOC wins AND he won the league title, leading essentially wire-to-wire. Good cases could be made for Dambrot, O'Shea, Witherspoon and Christian too.

Bob Pruett retires Saying "it's time" Bob Pruett retires from the head coaching position with the Marshall University Thundering Herd By: WSAZ NewsChannel 3 WSAZ-TV CHARLESTONWVUSA - At a news conference Thursday morning Marshall University head football coach Bob Pruett announced his retirement after nine years leading the Thundering Herd.A tearful Bob Pruett announced today that friends told him that only he would know when it was time to retire.Thursday, Coach Pruett said, "It's time, it's just time." Saying that his health or his relationship with the administration of the university had nothing to do with his decision, Coach Pruett said that he was looking forward to changing his role with the university."I'm not going anywhere; I'm just changing roles from coach to supporter and fan." After taking questions he introduced interim head coach Larry Kueck.Coach Kueck said that he and Coach Pruett have known each other for many years.Kueck was a member of Pruett's staff in 1996 when Marshall won the 1-AA National Championship and had returned to the Herd as the quarterback coach. Kueck said that it was a "bittersweet" moment."There is not an assistant coach alive who does not want to become the head coach.""We plan to start spring practice as we have planned." Kueck responded when asked what his plans were.

I agree with King Zip regarding the Dambrot poster. Posters go on the walls of students and kids. I hung one in my kid's room. I think he'd rather have a big pic of Travis tearing down the rim than a 43 year old guy in a business suit.

Click Me

* OK...how can the Fredrick's Catering commercial that boasts about being the "exclusive caterer for <Rot-ZELL> and <An-DRAY-is>" run all season long? ! It's <RET-Zul> and <AN-dris>!!!! It's the biggest law firm in Akron!!! Gheezus.... * I thought the big ex-cheerleader that exorted the "Give me an 'A'...give me a 'K'...give me an 'R'...etc. cheer was horrible. His substitute last night sounded like he was on quaaludes. Least enthusiastic cheerleader ever. * Peterson in the dog house? Minutes seem pretty limited? * Cedrick in the dog house? I don't get why he played so little? Joyce struggled pretty hard on both ends of the court last night. You'd think Ced would have merited a few more minutes? * Travis still rules. * Great game by Preston. * Good game for McFadden to have an off shooting night. It can't happen again on Thursday, though. We will need 80+ to win. * Myers gave some nice minutes. * I don't care what anyone says about EMU being "a talented team with a bad record." They're a bad team with a bad record. They have maybe 2 players that I wouldn't mind seeing in a Zips uniform. They could keep the other 13.

NIT "at-large" maybe...but forget the NCAA's. Beating Buffalo @ Buffalo, or Can't @ Can't would have given us an outside shot, but we failed. We need to win the MAC tourney if we want the Big Dance.

I would assume that any Zips fan watching the 12:00pm Game #1 will not be able to attend the pe-game function at the Hard Rock (No Re-admittance Policy @ The Gund)? Too bad...if the Zips played at 12:00pm, or 6:00pm, there wouldn't have been a conflict. On a side note: Wonder if The Winking Lizard (Zips' sponsor, with a location in downtown Cleveland) is pissed that the Zips are convening at the Hard Rock (competitor)?

1,500 for a tourney game is pathetic. No mincing words. Absolutely pathetic. Editor's note: I was there.

Dwight will never have to worry whether or not he has enough money for gun pellets: Mar 7 Jay Glazer, of FOX Sports, reports the New Orleans Saints have agreed to terms with free agent S Dwight Smith (Buccaneers) on a five-year deal believed to be worth $15 million, including a signing bonus in the $3.5 million range.

We can't lose tonight...we simply can't.

To say he never produced is pretty unfair. He's something like the #9 rusher in U of A history and had some very nice 100+ games (Wisconsin is just one that comes to mind). Marcus Sanders....there's your poster child for "never produced."

I disagree. We had "Biggs" in 2003. It was Bobby Hendry. The 2004 difference wasn't Biggs, it was the fact that the new staff wasn't Frye-centric. While Lee Owens chose to run the ball 5 times vs. Miami in 2003, JD knew he had to rush 15+ times in ANY game if only to keep the 2004 opponents honest. Lee Owens' favorite running play was the maddening "delayed draw", usually on 3rd and 8. Saw it a hundred times. JD ran that play once. Biggs caught screen passes. How many times did Owens call a screen pass for Hendry? I can't recall one. JD found ways to give Frye time to pass without keeping the RB in to pass block every down. Owens always defaulted to simply keeping Hendry in the backfield. Yes the seniors "came together" when they seemingly could have given up. However, I give credit to the new staff for instilling the fight in those guys. The coaching staff can't go on the field and tackle or catch the passes, they can only teach and motivate. I think the 2004 seniors responded to the coaching as much as they did their own competitiveness. I summary: If JD would have had Hendry in the backfield instead of Biggs, our 2004 record wouldn't have been any different. The difference wasn't Biggs, it was the fact that JD knew how to use a running back, even though he had an NFL-caliber QB under center. Owens didn't. And on a slight tangent, I'll say the Owens DID know how to run the ball. The McCray, Culler, Payne, Gray, early-Hendry era teams could pile up some decent running yardage. But as the Frye era evolved (under Owens), the running game became a forgotten game. My 2 cents.

My screen saver at work for the past 20 or so months has been a photo of my son, me, Dwight Smith and his son from the 2003 Spring Blue/Gold game. I got to meet his dad, who seemed to be a super-nice person. It really bugs me to see him in the news again for a gun-related offense. I spoke out on his behalf after the first offense, and I will take a wait-and-see on this one. As the facts unravel, it seems there may be more to the story. Regardless...very disappointed. Click: "Victims" ain't no Angels

Happy to see the Zippers finish off Marshall! Buffalo will be VERY tough...hope for a win, but I can't say it is expected. Looking forward to the tourney next week, hopefully with a bye! Thusfar, no Klaas Zollner sightings. CU next week.

Not ENOUGH Warsteiner.

Unfortunately no one wanted to step up and be the man. A number of guys had looks and decided to pass and work for a better shot. KD beens pretty good off of timeouts - this is one he'd probably like to forget but there were some shots in the set -- nobody took them. I'd say we showed our youth on the road here. Anyone takes it to the rack and it's a foul. Found a computer in the hotel. Sucks that the Zips blew it. However, I racall a few years back when the Zips beat the flushes twice in the regular season, then Jose Davis went nuts in the JAR and beat the Zips, starting the flushes impressive 6 year run. Looking forward to next week!!!

Hey, "King Zip." The people on this board have been here for YEARS, not just a few posts. How dare you knock the guys on this board as "fair weather." If that's all you bring to the board, then go the F away.

The Zips will win by as many points as Bubba scores. If Bubba pours in 12, that means Can't's playing crappy D and we win by 12. If they're defending the 3-line well, and Bubba only musters 1 point, we'll still win by 1. Auf Wiederzein (my best guess at the spelling.)

Wonder if any of the "undecideds" are on the Zips radar? Specifically: Nate Hartung 6.04 410 C NT Butler Area SHS Since we "lost" that 5' 6", 165 lb RB to Can't, could we give a schollie or greyshirt to Nate? Since Nate is 410 lb...and the Can't kid is 165 lb...it would be like getting an extra 1.48 kids for the same price! (410/165=2.48) That's as close as I've come to using my Engineering Calculus since I graduated, by the way.

Off to Germany for a week. Strictly work, with some beers in the evenings mixed in. Sucks...but at least the trip isn't the following week. If I missed the MAC tourney, it would kill me.

18 tics I'll be about 35,000 feet over Nova Scotia at tip off. All of you able to attend this game suck. I hate you all.

This thread kind of morphed into a fairly negative one...certainly not fitting of a ZipsNation post-game thread after such a huge, hard-fought win. This thread will be destroyed in T minus 1 hour.

I would hope DP looks at the scoreboard after tonight's game...looks at the MAC standings...and says "This is where I want to be, whether I get 35 minutes, or 15 minutes." We got rid of the guys that were concerned more with PT and their scoring lines than wins (last year), and we've been semi-unstoppable ever since. Hang a banner in the JAR, DP. That's what it's all about.

I look at the end of regulation and I say "Damn, why was Collins guarding their 3-point shooter at game's end? Didn't Dambrot learn anything from the Toledo game? 5' 5' guys can't guard the "3" in that situation!" That's the only thing I could complain about the entire game. That was a great 45 minutes of college basketball. Offensively it was ugly, but that was due to the excellent defense. Until the end of the overtime, was any lead ever greater than 3 or 4 points? Do the Zips EVER take a defensive possession off? Do they EVER get rattled? Zips play gritty...aggressive...smart. They don't play flushy...out-of-control...selfish. And that is night-in-night-out. <Insert any Zips Player's Name Here> had a nice game. Wonder how Coles is going to replace Horace and Mason next season? They should both be 1st team All MAC.