Offense wins regular season titles.

[meatwad]

I've read the above [wasting my time]and have concluded that some people have their mind made up that offense wins games and no fact is going to change their mind.

With the logic and stats and facts that he employed, no I will not change my mind. Because the facts did not warrant me changing my mind. I will if there are different/more useful/better stats and facts that can be used to back up his assertion.

[OZoner]

It doesn't matter how good your offense is if your defense sucks. It doesn't matter how good your defense is if your offense sucks. This is not an either/or proposition. You need both.

Duke: #6 nationally in offensive points per possession, #7 in defensive points per possession.

WVU: #22 in O-PPP, #67 in D-PPP.

Butler: #56 in O-PPP, #24 in D-PPP.

MSU: #36 in O-PPP, #69 in D-PPP

By the way, nobody in the last decade or so has won a title giving up .9 or more points per defensive possession. Duke, at .89 D-PPP, is the only team that meets that standard.

[zippy5]

I've read the above [wasting my time]and have concluded that some people have their mind made up that offense wins games and no fact is going to change their mind.

With the logic and stats and facts that he employed, no I will not change my mind. Because the facts did not warrant me changing my mind. I will if there are different/more useful/better stats and facts that can be used to back up his assertion.

Using the almighty KENPOM stats, here are the defensive ranks of the four teams. With offensive ranks in parenthesis.

DUKE 3 (1)

BUTLER 6 (46)

WVU 10 (12)

MSU 33 (25)

three of the top 10 defenses make the final four, with one top 10 offense, albeit, it is the number one offense. Obviously no one will win if either facet of their game flat out sucks, but I think it's a little easier to cover up a lacking offense with a good defense than vice versa.

edit: the real test will be Butler's performance. Their 46th ranked offense has somehow made it to the final 4, lets see how much further it gets.

[Dave in Green]

Offensive and defensive efficiency are both good stats to consider, because they give a reasonable picture of how the teams have performed on average over the course of the season. But no statistic tells the whole story.

For example, MSU has the worst combined offensive and defensive efficiency season average of the 4 teams left standing. But Tom Izzo's MSU teams are notorious for underperforming at times during the season, which lowers their average efficiency ratings, and then peaking at NCAA tournament time.

This is MSU's 6th final 4 in the last 12 years, more than any other team. I've seen no reliable stat to measure the ability of some coaches and teams to peak at the right time and perform at a level beyond their season offensive and defensive efficiency averages once the NCAA tournament begins.

[zippy5]

Offensive and defensive efficiency are both good stats to consider, because they give a reasonable picture of how the teams have performed on average over the course of the season. But no statistic tells the whole story.

For example, MSU has the worst combined offensive and defensive efficiency season average of the 4 teams left standing. But Tom Izzo's MSU teams are notorious for underperforming at times during the season, which lowers their average efficiency ratings, and then peaking at NCAA tournament time.

This is MSU's 6th final 4 in the last 12 years, more than any other team. I've seen no reliable stat to measure the ability of some coaches and teams to peak at the right time and perform at a level beyond their season offensive and defensive efficiency averages once the NCAA tournament begins.

Did you know every player that has ever played for Tom Izzo has been to a final four? That's pretty neat.

[Dr Z]

Did you know every player that has ever played for Tom Izzo has been to a final four? That's pretty neat.

What a great recruiting tool.

[meatwad]

Offensive and defensive efficiency are both good stats to consider, because they give a reasonable picture of how the teams have performed on average over the course of the season. But no statistic tells the whole story.

For example, MSU has the worst combined offensive and defensive efficiency season average of the 4 teams left standing. But Tom Izzo's MSU teams are notorious for underperforming at times during the season, which lowers their average efficiency ratings, and then peaking at NCAA tournament time.

This is MSU's 6th final 4 in the last 12 years, more than any other team. I've seen no reliable stat to measure the ability of some coaches and teams to peak at the right time and perform at a level beyond their season offensive and defensive efficiency averages once the NCAA tournament begins.

Did you know every player that has ever played for Tom Izzo has been to a final four? That's pretty neat.

That is pretty cool. Somehow that guy sneaks into the Final Four or Elite Eight every year it seems. Crazy.

[zippy5]

Did you know every player that has ever played for Tom Izzo has been to a final four? That's pretty neat.

What a great recruiting tool.

Yeah really. "Hey wanna go to the final 4? Come to msu."

[Zippysgotagun]

I'm laughing at the beatdown being given to the OP here, but can't really help but think...

Perhaps it takes both a good offense and a good defense. All 4 teams left in the tournament have scored more than their opponent every game thus far.

[OZoner]

Offensive and defensive efficiency are both good stats to consider, because they give a reasonable picture of how the teams have performed on average over the course of the season. But no statistic tells the whole story.

For example, MSU has the worst combined offensive and defensive efficiency season average of the 4 teams left standing. But Tom Izzo's MSU teams are notorious for underperforming at times during the season, which lowers their average efficiency ratings, and then peaking at NCAA tournament time.

Don't know how they're doing it this year. Combination of rebounding and great fortune.

[Dr Z]

Don't know how they're (MSU) doing it this year. Combination of rebounding and great fortune.

Good coaching (game planning & preparation). Good coaches win important games.

Note: Please spare me a long statistical response to this post.

[OZoner]

Well... yes and no. Good luck looks like good coaching, and the Spartans have had both this tournament. I think Izzo's giddiness suggests even he didn't expect them to still be standing at this point.

[akzips10]

Well... yes and no. Good luck looks like good coaching, and the Spartans have had both this tournament. I think Izzo's giddiness suggests even he didn't expect them to still be standing at this point.

They have had some pretty bad luck as well, anytime a teams loses one of their leaders and best players to injury during the tourney its difficult to bounce back, they needed some good luck to combat that....

[Dave in Green]

Luck is only a minor component of Tom Izzo's remarkable success, according to political statistics guru Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com.

CAUTION: Anyone who is allergic to statistics should not go to the following link. It is filled with statistical data of the most intense kind. If the only numbers that interest you are final scores, do yourself a favor and avoid reading this.

FiveThirtyEight.com Link

[Dave in Green]

The statistics in the following story are somewhat less intense than in the one above, so those with only a mild allergy to numbers might be able to handle this:

ESPN Link

[Dr Z]

Nice spot on Izzo's offense on ESPN at lunchtime today. I'm assuming they will be playing it all day. MSU is another offense that I can understand.

[OZoner]

Luck is only a minor component of Tom Izzo's remarkable success, according to political statistics guru Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com.

CAUTION: Anyone who is allergic to statistics should not go to the following link. It is filled with statistical data of the most intense kind. If the only numbers that interest you are final scores, do yourself a favor and avoid reading this.

FiveThirtyEight.com Link

I'll note I was speaking specifically about this year only. Dude straight gets it done.

[Blue & Gold]

I'm on my BlackBerry & thus cannot copy & paste links here. But the ABJ has a very pertinent AP article today concerning defense and how all 4 Final Four teams are built around a "defense first" philosophy. Frankly, it sounds like a collection of KD quotes.

I still say, "Please KD! Don't play Miami-style-bore-the-hell-outta-me ball!"

But tough nosed Big East-style ball is cool. And I hope that's what KD is shooting for.

Anyway, can someone paste the link to the Ohio.com story? it's a good and pertinent read.

[zippy5]

I'm on my BlackBerry & thus cannot copy & paste links here. But the ABJ has a very pertinent AP article today concerning defense and how all 4 Final Four teams are built around a "defense first" philosophy. Frankly, it sounds like a collection of KD quotes.

I still say, "Please KD! Don't play Miami-style-bore-the-hell-outta-me ball!"

But tough nosed Big East-style ball is cool. And I hope that's what KD is shooting for.

Anyway, can someone paste the link to the Ohio.com story? it's a good and pertinent read.

no it's wrong, you must not have read this thread. offense is carrying these teams.

[GP1]

But tough nosed Big East-style ball is cool. And I hope that's what KD is shooting for.

Unquestionably, UCONN has been the best Big East team in recent years. They are a fast paced, offensive orriented team.

Defense is fine if you can score once you get the ball.

[Dave in Green]

Not that it will change anyone's opinion, but here's a link to the story that confirms what everyone already knows.

ABJ Link

[GP1]

Interesting read. Did Kentucky lose because WVU played great defense, or did they lose because they had an off shoting night? When a team misses their first 20 three point shots, I'd be more likely to say they lost because of an off shooting night and not because the other team played great defense. Maybe if the stat was 4 of 20 three point shots, I might agree defense did it, but 0-20? That's terrible shooting because not EVERY shot could have been contested. Kentucky lost because their offense didn't show up. WVU won because they got an early lead with offense, pressured Kentucky to take low percentage shots and held on to a big lead at the end of the game with a good coach who can manage a lead. A combination of WVU's good offense and Kentucky's bad shooting won the game for WVU.

Early success on offense will always make a team's defense look better than it really is because the team behind is forced to scramble and play out of their game plan. This happens in every sport.

[Blue & Gold]

<br />

But tough nosed Big East-style ball is cool. And I hope that's what KD is shooting for.

<br />Unquestionably, UCONN has been the best Big East team in recent years. They are a fast paced, offensive orriented team.

Defense is fine if you can score once you get the ball.

And I think the last time UConn won the national title they had khalid El-Amin running the point & Rip Hamilton filling it up @ the 2G.

Definitely have to be able to put the rock in the hole. That's why I can get excited about & appreciate Big East ball, but Miami-style ball makes me vomit & then fall asleep. When Tom Gaffney suggested KD was hinting @ becoming the next Miami of the MAC, I about had a stroke. That's why I'm hoping KD is hoping to emulate tough-nosed, east coast ball; not trying to be the next Charlie Coles.

[zippy5]

But tough nosed Big East-style ball is cool. And I hope that's what KD is shooting for.

Unquestionably, UCONN has been the best Big East team in recent years. They are a fast paced, offensive orriented team.

Defense is fine if you can score once you get the ball.

I don't know about unquestionably. Maybe 5 years ago... Pitt and Nova have to be up there now, too. Pitt, more of a defensive squad, has had the better regular season success, and Nova with their guards, the tournament success. This year it's all about the Mountaineers (unfortunately; I'm a Pitt fan outside of the Zips) and their 1-3-1 zone. Every game I've seen them play, it seems like no one can hit their outside shots. Must be that every team has a off night against them, I suppose. Big East basketball is exciting, it's not all defense, Miami-style ball like the Big 10. Man that is a boring conference to watch. And the refs let them play.

[Dave in Green]

Poor Jim Calhoun. He just can't give away those $39.99 instructional DVDs on the 2-2-1 pressure defense "which has led the Huskies to national prominence and an NCAA Championship!"

basketballcoach.com link