Season Expectations

[Dr Z]

With all the excitement & optimism throughout the forum after ZN members have got to evaluate the new team at some recent practices, I thought a poll/thread was in order. Fell free to post your predictions or explain your poll choice.

[Dr Z]

I put Blake down for NCAA tournament vote.

[Zipmeister]

I voted multiple NCAA wins (which is required to make the final four).

I am, of course, relying on tremendous improvement by the Zips and numerous tragic bus accidents involving other teams.

[Captain Kangaroo]

Great interview with Blake! Nice, nice job, UA.

[Z.I.P.]

Great interview with Blake! Nice, nice job, UA.

Thanks for the view Doc. Who's in the travel party -- the whole returning squad? Is Zeke with the team?

--edit -- Nevah mind! Got d'utha thread!

[Derrt]

[johnnyzip84]

Thanks for the highlights ist!

[GP1]

Win the mac and no ncaa tournament win.

I also have an expectation this team comes out of the gate in a good way. Lots of early season wins.

[Dr Z]

I also have an expectation this team comes out of the gate in a good way. Lots of early season wins.

There was one option I thought of putting in and didn't. Get an at large bid. Hasn't happened for the mac in a long time, but early occ wins are a must in order for this to happen. Is there a 5 percent chance of that happening for them?

[GP1]

Is there a 5 percent chance of that happening for them?

Let's ask our resident numbers man. Dave in Green, what say you?

[Dave in Green]

Since the Zips don't have a very tough schedule, they'd have to win a really large percentage of their regular season games to be considered for an at-large bid. Let's say that have a 30-game regular season schedule. I think they'd have to win 90% of those games (27-3 record) and go at least a couple of rounds in the MAC tournament. That would give them a 29-4 record. That might do it if some of the regular season wins were over the top OOC teams on their schedule.

However, I think the likelihood is small because the Zips have too many new parts to integrate into the team, and they'll probably lose a number of early season games.

So, my totally unscientific, Kentucky windage estimate is that 5% is a little high. I'd put it in the 2% range -- possible but highly unlikely.

Then again, what were the odds of VCU being selected as an at-large team last season, let alone making it to the Final Four?

Stuff happens.

[Captain Kangaroo]

I also have an expectation this team comes out of the gate in a good way. Lots of early season wins.

There was one option I thought of putting in and didn't. Get an at large bid. Hasn't happened for the mac in a long time, but early occ wins are a must in order for this to happen. Is there a 5 percent chance of that happening for them?

I think if a MAC program merits an at-large, a MAC team can earn an at-large.

The MAC has be down for so long, people forget what a good league it was 10+ years ago. Lottery NBA draft picks. At large bids. It all really happend in the MAC.

I think the Zips are approaching the caliber of some of those late-90's/early 2000's MAC programs. It's taken 8 seasons, but the insane "Gonzaga of the East" comment may just take a step towards sanity this year? I sense a degree of separation from the MAC pack in 2011-12.

LOVED Gilliam on the alley-oops!

[ZachTheZip]

Since the Zips don't have a very tough schedule

So you know what our schedule is now? Would you please share it with us?

Akron had the #4 non-conference SOS in the MAC last season, and a top-50% non-conference SOS overall. This year our schedule is tougher than that. We should be top-4 in the MAC once again and move up to around the 60th percentile nationally. It should be the toughest schedule Dambrot has ever coached against.

[ZachTheZip]

I also have an expectation this team comes out of the gate in a good way. Lots of early season wins.

There was one option I thought of putting in and didn't. Get an at large bid. Hasn't happened for the mac in a long time, but early occ wins are a must in order for this to happen. Is there a 5 percent chance of that happening for them?

The Canada trip should help tremendously to avoid the slow start that has plagued the Zips the past few seasons. We always took time to gel as a team before putting things together late. Dambrot always tinkers with the depth chart early and that instability makes it hard to beat the toughest teams on the schedule. Now he can do that with no consequences.

[Dave in Green]

Since the Zips don't have a very tough schedule

So you know what our schedule is now? Would you please share it with us?

Akron had the #4 non-conference SOS in the MAC last season, and a top-50% non-conference SOS overall. This year our schedule is tougher than that. We should be top-4 in the MAC once again and move up to around the 60th percentile nationally. It should be the toughest schedule Dambrot has ever coached against.

First, I appreciate your enthusiasm as a Zips fan. Never lose that.

Now, we're pretty sure of most of this season's schedule, aren't we? Maybe we're going to add Duke and Kentucky. That would change things a little.

Last year's SOS was #170 out of 345 DI schools, so the Zips were just slightly above the 50th percentile for all DI schools, and only about 20% make the NCAA tournament.

What would your definition be of a "very tough schedule?"

My definition would be somewhere in the top 25%, which would be an SOS of about #85 or better.

I don't think the Zips are going to make that cut, which is why I said their schedule is not that tough. Of course, it's a relative term. The final Zips schedule could be fairly tough by Zips or MAC standards but not very tough by NCAA tournament standards.

I don't say this to downgrade the Zips. I believe that KD is trying to elevate the program at a realistic and sustainable pace, and I totally support that. It's just that we aren't suddenly going to be there from one season to the next. It's a process that takes time to do right, as opposed to taking the cheater shortcuts.

[ZachTheZip]

Since the Zips don't have a very tough schedule

So you know what our schedule is now? Would you please share it with us?

Akron had the #4 non-conference SOS in the MAC last season, and a top-50% non-conference SOS overall. This year our schedule is tougher than that. We should be top-4 in the MAC once again and move up to around the 60th percentile nationally. It should be the toughest schedule Dambrot has ever coached against.

First, I appreciate your enthusiasm as a Zips fan. Never lose that.

Now, we're pretty sure of most of this season's schedule, aren't we? Maybe we're going to add Duke and Kentucky. That would change things a little.

Last year's SOS was #170 out of 345 DI schools, so the Zips were just slightly above the 50th percentile for all DI schools, and only about 20% make the NCAA tournament.

What would your definition be of a "very tough schedule?"

My definition would be somewhere in the top 25%, which would be an SOS of about #85 or better.

I don't think the Zips are going to make that cut, which is why I said their schedule is not that tough. Of course, it's a relative term. The final Zips schedule could be fairly tough by Zips or MAC standards but not very tough by NCAA tournament standards.

I don't say this to downgrade the Zips. I believe that KD is trying to elevate the program at a realistic and sustainable pace, and I totally support that. It's just that we aren't suddenly going to be there from one season to the next. It's a process that takes time to do right, as opposed to taking the cheater shortcuts.

What do you think our SOS would have been last year if Michigan State didn't back out on us, which forced us to schedule Millikin at the last second?

[Dave in Green]

..... What do you think our SOS would have been last year if Michigan State didn't back out on us, which forced us to schedule Millikin at the last second?

I don't happen to have the SOS formula in front of me right now. But since MSU had an off year, it wouldn't have been as big a bump as usual. Doing some rough math here, Millikin had no effect on the Zips SOS because they're a DIII team, which I believe does not count on a DI team's SOS. So the bump would all come from MSU. But it would have only represented one game out of about 30 regular season games, or a little over 3% of the schedule. So it would have probably given the Zips an SOS somewhere in the lower-mid 100s as opposed to the higher-mid 100s (#170). Still a fair way off from the sub-85 SOS that I believe represents a really tough schedule.

But I give a lot of credit to KD for even trying to schedule MSU. The Zips are reaching the point where they should be able to handle at least one really tough game like that every season along with a generally stronger OOC schedule..

[Dr Z]

But I give a lot of credit to KD for even trying to schedule MSU. The Zips are reaching the point where they should be able to handle at least one really tough game like that every season along with a generally stronger OOC schedule..

I remember KD saying for the last couple of years that we are not ready to play a tough schedule. When the schedule comes out I hope he comments if we are ready for that this year. From the sound of some, it sounds as though KD is ready to start scheduling "better" opponents.