Chasing the #1 Seed

[UAZip0510]

Current Standings

1. Akron (12-2); Remaining: UB, @Can't State

2. Ohio U (10-4); Remaining: @Can't State, @MIA

3. Buffalo (10-4); Remaining: @UA, BG

4. Can't State (9-5); Remaining: OU, UA

5. Bowling Green (8-6); Remaining: MIA, @UB

6. Eastern Michigan (8-6); Remaining: @WMU, @TOL

[UAZip0510]

Are we better off with Buffalo or Can't winning tomorrow? I'm thinking Buffalo. Assuming Akron beats Miami, a Bulls win would put Akron 3 games ahead of Can't, Ohio, and Bowling Green with 4 MAC games left. This would give Akron an incredible advantage in grabbing a #1 or #2 seed, either of which would earn them a bye to the MAC Semi-Finals.

[OZoner]

I don't think it will matter.

[skip-zip]

Are we better off with Buffalo or Can't winning tomorrow? I'm thinking Buffalo. Assuming Akron beats Miami, a Bulls win would put Akron 3 games ahead of Can't, Ohio, and Bowling Green with 4 MAC games left. This would give Akron an incredible advantage in grabbing a #1 or #2 seed, either of which would earn them a bye to the MAC Semi-Finals.

It's usually always best to have the team that you have to play AWAY lose an additional game. That being Ken+. We already have our opportunity to tack another loss on Buffalo since we have them at HOME.

It's even better knowing that, as you state, another Ken+ loss pretty much guarantees Akron a #1 or #2 seed (no automatic #2 seed for the MAC West this year).

Here's another factor: When looking at the trio of Akron/Buffalo/Ken+, the only one who has the other two at home is Ken+. That gives them a little advantage in the final stretch.

Plus, who is going to root for Ken+ under any circumstances ??

[MDZip]

Flashes take out the Bulls 76-71. Still not sure if that's good or bad. Buffalo is 0-15 all-time in Can't State's gym.

[Quickzips]

Flashes take out the Bulls 76-71. Still not sure if that's good or bad. Buffalo is 0-15 all-time in Can't State's gym.

Had a difficult time figuring out who too root for in that one. As a Zips fan I cannot in good conscience root for Can't. On the other hand, a Buffalo loss coupled with a Zips win tomorrow night gives us a 2 game lead on the conference with 4 contests remaining. In the end I just tried to enjoy a hard fought basketball game without caring who won. We are in the drivers seat. Can't worry too much about what is behind us.

[akronzips71]

Had a difficult time figuring out who too root for in that one. As a Zips fan I cannot in good conscience root for Can't. On the other hand, a Buffalo loss coupled with a Zips win tomorrow night gives us a 2 game lead on the conference with 4 contests remaining. In the end I just tried to enjoy a hard fought basketball game without caring who won. We are in the drivers seat. Can't worry too much about what is behind us.

Oh no, that is excellent news. With a win tomorrow, we have a two game lead on everyone with only a few to go. Even if we lost to UB at home we could still be #1, as Can't already has three losses, and that would only be our second.

Remember, #1 = AUTOMATIC NIT BID.

[skip-zip]

It does increase our chances of winning the regular season title, but it failed to solidify our chances of finishing no worse than the #2 seed. It was a tough call, but I still would have rather seen Ken+ take the loss since we still have our own chance to beat Buffalo again oursleves, since we have them at home.

[Dave in Green]

It's official now that the Zips can clinch the MAC regular season championship by winning 4 of their last 5 conference games. It wouldn't even matter which team beat them as long as there is only 1 loss.

[akronzips71]

It's official now that the Zips can clinch the MAC regular season championship by winning 4 of their last 5 conference games. It wouldn't even matter which team beat them as long as there is only 1 loss.

EXACTLY

And even if we lost two, it depends on the tie breakers and that is only if BU and Can't both win out. We are in the drivers seat, and a win tomorrow is close to sealing the deal.

[Let'sGoZips94]

Had a difficult time figuring out who too root for in that one. As a Zips fan I cannot in good conscience root for Can't. On the other hand, a Buffalo loss coupled with a Zips win tomorrow night gives us a 2 game lead on the conference with 4 contests remaining. In the end I just tried to enjoy a hard fought basketball game without caring who won. We are in the drivers seat. Can't worry too much about what is behind us.

In past years I would agree, but with the new format, you kind of have to. With the top 2 seeds automatically going to the semis, as a Zips fan you don't want Can't or OU up there with you. Buffalo is the more dangerous team, but Can't and OU travel better. Best case scenario would be if Eastern somehow took a 3 or 4 seed and BG took the other, giving Akron and Buffalo the auto semi 1 and 2 seeds, while leaving Can't and OU having to win 2 games to get to Cleveland, and 2 more to get to the finals.

[MDZip]

Best case scenario would be if Eastern somehow took a 3 or 4 seed

Eastern lost to Central tonight, putting the MAC West "leader" at 6-6. I think there is almost no chance of a Western team getting a top four seed with five East teams standing at 7-4 or better right now.

[akronzips71]

People people people.

We already beat Can't

A loss to UB would have been our nightmare scenario.

Not any more.

Even with two losses to UB we are still a game up on them, all else being equal.

The best drama is NO drama.

[The Hip Zip]

People people people.

We already beat Can't

A loss to UB would have been our nightmare scenario.

Not any more.

Even with two losses to UB we are still a game up on them, all else being equal.

The best drama is NO drama.

Put me down as saying the Buffalo loss was a good thing. They have 3 of their last 4 at home and frankly they scare me. I think that we match up better with K ent and the Flushes still have to travel to Mia and BG which can be tricky. I still believe that Buffalo is a better team than K ent.

[CincyZip]

In all honesty, there was no bad result for Akron last night. The Can't win puts the ball completely in Akron's court. The door is now open, we just have to walk through it.

A win tonight puts AK two games up with four to go. No one should be unhappy with that.

[Dr Z]

We (the fans & coach) are expecting to win an NCAA tournament game, and I read some are afraid of Ken† & Buffalo???

[johnnyzip84]

We (the fans & coach) are expecting to win an NCAA tournament game, and I read some are afraid of Ken† & Buffalo???

I believe this is because, while the MAC East has been consistently good over the last few years, it probably has reached an all-time peak this season in terms of overall strength.

I also think that just because you might like to avoid facing a particular MAC East team in the MAC tourney, it doesn’t mean you don’t think the Zips have a good chance of winning a 1st round NCAA tourney game. IMO, there is more pressure on the Zips to win the MAC tourney than there is for them to win an NCAA game, if and when they get there. And I don’t think the team they’d likely face in the 1st round of the NCAAs will be significantly better than Buffalo or K.E.N.T.

[Dr Z]

IMO, there is more pressure on the Zips to win the MAC tourney than there is for them to win an NCAA game, if and when they get there.

In this case, I think that talent trumps pressure. There is always pressure as a MAC team in the tourney, but I think this is the most talented team we have had and they will play loose because of it.

[skip-zip]

And I don’t think the team they’d likely face in the 1st round of the NCAAs will be significantly better than Buffalo or K.E.N.T.

Whoa!!

Since we'd likely face someone seeded around #2 to #4, meaning that they are somewhere between the 5th to 16th best team in the country, I would say that they would be quite a bit better than Ken+ or Buffalo

Actually, our kind of seeding would tend to get a more winnable matchup in the 2nd round. Because, we'd then be facing the 5,6 or 7 seed that the 2,3, or 4 would have played, if we had not upset them.

[johnnyzip84]

Whoa!!

Since we'd likely face someone seeded around #2 to #4, meaning that they are somewhere between the 5th to 16th best team in the country, I would say that they would be quite a bit better than Ken+ or Buffalo

Actually, our kind of seeding would tend to get a more winnable matchup in the 2nd round. Because, we'd then be facing the 5,6 or 7 seed that the 2,3, or 4 would have played, if we had not upset them.

Let's just say our definitions of significant may be significantly different.

[akronzips71]

In all honesty, there was no bad result for Akron last night. The Can't win puts the ball completely in Akron's court. The door is now open, we just have to walk through it.

A win tonight puts AK two games up with four to go. No one should be unhappy with that.

At this moment we are doing almost as well as is possible. We could only have one more win, no matter what. That is pretty impressive.

[UAZip0510]

We (the fans & coach) are expecting to win an NCAA tournament game, and I read some are afraid of Ken† & Buffalo???

I don't think anyone is afraid of Can't, Buffalo, or anyone else. Do I think Akron is the best team in the MAC and can beat anyone? Of course. Do I think they'll win the Tourney? Definitely. Would I want to get a bye to the semis and have weaker MAC teams on our side of the bracket? Absolutely.

[skip-zip]

Let's just say our definitions of significant may be significantly different.

Believe me. I wish the 100th best team in the country was not much different than the 10th best team in the country.

[MDZip]

Best case scenario: Zips win out and go storming into the MAC tournament. I don't think it's going to be that easy.

Worst case scenario: The three seed is the worst case (OU and Can't still have to play so one of them will finish lower than the Zips). But if the worst happens and the Zips lose all three games (and Buffalo, OU and Can't dont lose any more other that the loser of Can't-OU), I believe the tiebreakers would favor Buffalo and the winner of Can't-OU.

What the Zips really need is to beat Buffalo. That obviously clinches the top seed no matter what. The OU and Can't games are going to be tough ones but I still expect the Zips to win at least one. Among the other three top seeds, I don't have much of a preference who we'd play at the Q. All of them bring something to worry about.

I'd also like to see Miami and BGSU on opposite sides in the lower bracket just to see the final six teams all be from the MAC East (though I believe both Toldeo and WMU have a reasonable shot at being in the final 6).

[MDZip]

Just did some quick checking to see what would happen if we did end up tied with anyone. We would not get the number 1 seed no matter what.

UA ties only Buffalo: Buffalo the 1 seed based on a 2-0 record against the Zips.

UA ties only OU: OU the one seed based on a better record against whomever comes in third (OU is 2-0 vs Buffalo, and would be 2-0 vs Can't, Akron would be 1-1 against Can't and 0-2 against Buffalo)

UA ties only Can't: Can't would get the #1 seed and UA the #2. They would be 1-1 against each other so it would drop back to the best record against the next best seed. Can't would be 1-1 against Buffalo and UA would be 0-2. Can't would be 1-1 against OU and UA would also be 1-1, so it would revert to the best record against Buffalo.

UA ties Buffalo and OU: OU would be the one seed, Buffalo the two and Akron the 3 (Against each other, OU would be 3-1, Buffalo would be 2-2 and Akron would be 1-3).

UA ties Buffalo and Cant: Buffalo would be the one seed, Can't the two and Akron the three: Record against each other. Buffalo would be 3-1, Can't 2-2 and Akron 1-3.

The Zips must win one of the last three games to get the one seed. There is some outside chance that BGSU or EMU (or even WMU) could factor in to all of this but I considered those chances to be small enough not to consider.