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Zeke's #1


Dave in Green

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We all know that Zeke came to UA as a shot-blocking defensive specialist with virtually no offensive game. In other threads, some have taken note that Zeke's offense is better this year, while a few claim he hasn't improved much and the coaching staff has let him down. But the stats don't lie. Zeke has been steadily climbing up the charts in several important offensive categories, and is now among the national leaders. In fact, Zeke is the nation's new #1 in one offensive category:

#1: Zeke is now the nation's leader in free throw rate (number of free throw attempts per field goal attempt). For every field goal Zeke attempts, he's getting 1.178 free throw attempts for a free throw rate of 117.8. The second best player in the country is way behind at 106.06 and 3rd place is 101.02. No other player in the country earns more than 1 free throw attempt per field goal attempt. In other words, when Zeke takes the ball to the bucket, he gets fouled more than any other player. His free throw shooting percentage has improved to 73.3%, which is a little above average for all players and very good for a 7-foot center.

#4: Zeke is now 4th best in floor percentage (an individual's scoring possessions divided by his total possessions). Zeke currently scores on 69.18% of his possessions. Only 3 players in the country score more often than Zeke when they try to score. The Zips now have the go-to scorer that so many fans have been wishing for.

#9: Zeke is now 9th best in true shooting percentage (summary of 2-point, 3-point and free throw shooting percentages) at 70.2%.

#13: Zeke is now 13th best in field goal percentage at 65.8%.

#41: Zeke is now 41st best in offensive rating (a player's efficiency at producing points for the offense based on field goals, free throws, assists, offensive rebounds and turnovers).

Along with the vast improvement in offense, Zeke continues to excel at the defensive end, ranking #4 in both blocks and blocks per game and #8 in blocking percentage. His weakest area continues to be rebounding. But even there he's improving. His current rate of 6.417 rpg ranks him only #289 in the country. But last season he was #441 and in his sophomore season only #661 in rpg. So he continues to improve in all aspects of the game.

There is no longer any doubt that Zeke is developing into a great all-around player and team leader. With Pat Forsythe backing him up, the Zips are among the elite of D1 basketball at the center position. If the Zips come together as a team around Zeke, the potential is there for a great finish to this season. And with an offense that's finally catching up with his defense, the likelihood of a successful NBA career is growing ever greater.

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Since Dec. 16, Zeke has shot 24-33 from the field (73%), including 7-7 against Princeton, and 21-26 (81%) from the free throw line. Most of his offensive numbers have been good from the start of the season, and slowly trending upward as he asserts himself more at the offensive end.

Upward trends in offensive statistics are good. The explanation of the variance is the calling of a true Jedi.

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It's way too early to predict if Zeke might be able to maintain an 80%+ free throw shooting percentage as he has over the past four games. But if he can, his potential NBA value goes up another notch. Most 7-foot defensive specialists are terrible free throw shooters who are often deliberately hacked by defenders when they have the ball to send them to the free throw line, making them a big liability on the offensive end. It appears right now that hack-a-Zeke is a really poor strategy for opposing defenses.

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Zeke's performance has risen to the level of catching the attention of Ken Pomeroy, who writes in his Jan. 1 blog item on conference title predictions as his one and only comment about an individual player from any conference:

Akron seven-footer Zeke Marshall has been pretty absurd so far in his senior season. 66% on twos and he’s fifth in the nation in drawing fouls where he’s made an outstanding (for a big) 73% of his tries. Not to mention fifth in block rate to go with career-best rebound numbers at both ends.

Pomeroy has had his computers busy running 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season for each conference. In 10,000 simulations of the MAC conference season, here's what his computers have to say about the odds for each MAC team winning:

Akron .... 5988

Ohio ...... 3148

Can't ....... 296

WMU ...... 217

Toledo .... 180

Buffalo .... 115

BGSU ....... 28

CMU ......... 17

BSU ............ 5

Miami ......... 4

EMU ........... 2

Pomeroy Blog

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  • 2 weeks later...

Sports Illustrated has noticed Zeke:

Unknown Player Poised for a Breakout

Zeke Marshall, Akron: The senior 7-footer is having a Jeff Withey-like season (blocking 15.6 percent of opponents' shots and scoring efficiently) without getting much attention for it. If the Zips reach the NCAA tournament -- and they've been the best team in the MAC thus far -- Marshall could have an Omar Samhan-like swan song.

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Quick update after today's Can't game on where Zeke stands in various national offensive statistical rankings:

#1: Zeke remains the nation's leader in free throw rate (number of free throw attempts per field goal attempt, i.e. they have to foul him to stop him from scoring).

#2: Zeke has moved up from 4th to 2nd best in floor percentage (an individual's scoring possessions divided by his total possessions).

#5: Zeke has moved up from 13th to 5th best in field goal percentage at 67.3%.

#8: Zeke has moved up from 9th to 8th best in true shooting percentage (summary of 2-point, 3-point and free throw shooting percentages) at 69.1%.

#9: Zeke is currently #9 in effective field goal percentage at 69.8% (not sure why I didn't include this category in the original post).

#23: Zeke has moved up from 41st to 23rd best in offensive rating (a player's efficiency at producing points for the offense based on field goals, free throws, assists, offensive rebounds and turnovers).

Of course, Zeke is still well in the top 10 in all shot block categories. But that's old news. Everyone knew Zeke could block shots. It's the extreme improvement in offensive categories that's going to register with the NBA scouts come NBA draft time. As the season goes on, his offensive numbers are going up, not down.

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Quick update after today's Can't game on where Zeke stands in various national offensive statistical rankings:

#1: Zeke remains the nation's leader in free throw rate (number of free throw attempts per field goal attempt, i.e. they have to foul him to stop him from scoring).

#2: Zeke has moved up from 4th to 2nd best in floor percentage (an individual's scoring possessions divided by his total possessions).

#5: Zeke has moved up from 13th to 5th best in field goal percentage at 67.3%.

#8: Zeke has moved up from 9th to 8th best in true shooting percentage (summary of 2-point, 3-point and free throw shooting percentages) at 69.1%.

#9: Zeke is currently #9 in effective field goal percentage at 69.8% (not sure why I didn't include this category in the original post).

#23: Zeke has moved up from 41st to 23rd best in offensive rating (a player's efficiency at producing points for the offense based on field goals, free throws, assists, offensive rebounds and turnovers).

Of course, Zeke is still well in the top 10 in all shot block categories. But that's old news. Everyone knew Zeke could block shots. It's the extreme improvement in offensive categories that's going to register with the NBA scouts come NBA draft time. As the season goes on, his offensive numbers are going up, not down.

Thanks Dave. Those are impressive numbers and could tip the scales if we are on the cusp of getting an at large. When the Zips are on TV on ESPN they seem to take great notice of Zeke.

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I'll preface this by fully admitting that I have had some doubt over the last few years regarding Zeke's core motivation on the basketball court. It was never completely obvious to me whether he was playing the game for himself or for others. I once characterized former Buffalo Bull Mitchell Watt as a 6'10" basketball player and Zeke as a 7'1" guy who plays basketball. Now it's time for me to publicly retract my misperceptions.

It is clear to me that Zeke has turned a corner as a basketball player. If anyone questions his dedication as it pertains to physical conditioning, just take a look at today's ABJ sports cover photo (photo #2) of him blocking Kris Brewer's shot yesterday. It's ample evidence that KD is not blowing smoke up anyone's ass when he says Zeke is "the strongest player on the team".

But I see an even bigger, and far more significant, change in Zeke this year. His body language tells me this: he has fallen in love with the game. I guess, in retrospect, it's not too suprising that it took a little while for this to occur given his relatively late introduction to the sport. I think it explains his composure on the court this year. I am really excited to see how the rest of the year plays out for him. Go Zeke and Go Zips!!!

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