Looking ahead

[Quickzips]

The Zips are now 13-4, 4-0 in the MAC. We've now won 9 in a row, and haven't lost a game in over a month.

The Zips next three games are at Toledo, home for Buffalo and then back to NW Ohio for a matchup vs. Bowling Green. Of those squads Toledo is probably playing the best right now, but they are not very deep, and I expect the Zips to be able to take care of them. There is a strong possibility that we could go into the OU home game on February 2nd at 16-4, 7-0 in conference and riding a 12 game winning streak.

So here is the question, IF the Zips are able to take these next 3, do we start receiving a couple of top 25 votes? I would have to think so, particularly given that there aren't a whole lot of truly elite teams in the country this year. It would sure make for an interesting game on February 2nd if the Zips and Bobcats were both sitting at 7-0 in conference and receiving top 25 consideration.

[bigzipguy]

I doubt if we would get any top 25 votes. A win against Okla St would have helped. Not to put down Detroit, but loss there hurt us.

[akronzips71]

In your scenario I think we make top 50 in RPI. But no Top 25 votes. It just isn't there.

[Dave in Green]

So far today, the Zips win plus other results have pushed them up to #69 in RPI, and they're currently #49 in Pomeroy, which should go up a little when Pomeroy is updated overnight. Even big wins in the next three games would not push the Zips up too much, as the opponents are considered too weak. The Zips will have to put together one heck of a winning streak, including a decisive win over OU, to get any top 25 attention. Any stumble along the way would cause the voters to quickly recoil from any respect that might be slowly building for the Zips. Toledo did lead OU at halftime today in Athens, which is fairly impressive. But OU took them out in the second half.

[akronzips71]

My scenario is this:

Lets say we almost run the table, maybe lose only two more games. Then lose the championship game at the tournament.

Does winning out almost every game get us up into the Top 50 and possibly get us at large consideration?

[UAZipster0305]

My scenario is this:

Lets say we almost run the table, maybe lose only two more games. Then lose the championship game at the tournament.

Does winning out almost every game get us up into the Top 50 and possibly get us at large consideration?

No. Wins against Coastal Carolina and Detroit along with the above description would have. Because of our OOC results, "Thinking Bigger" has to involve a MACC this year. End of story.

[RowdyZip]

www.rpiforecast.com has us at about 32 if we win out the regular season. They however can't take into account our bracketbuster draw. A decent draw would put our rpi in the 20s, which is at-large range for power conferences, just not the MAC.

[originalrowdy]

This subject comes up every year, and we know the result will be that only one in the MAC will get in to the tourney, BUT...

As I see it, the only way for us to get an at-large is to literally win out, get into the MAC finals, and lose to OUt. I don't see any other way for it to happen. And even then it depends on seeding and how OUt does the rest of its season. But a loss in the finals to any other team would dash any at-large chance. We have too many bad losses.

Either way, let's just win this thang and get the automatic!!! Oh, and Can't still sucks!

[zippy5]

I could guarantee that an RPI in the 20's is an at-large bid.

[RowdyZip]

I could guarantee that an RPI in the 20's is an at-large bid.

I guess you're probably right. After compiling the list below, you can see how things have shifted to favor "power" conferences. In the last 4 tournaments, there have been 16 top 50 teams that have been left out. Every last one is a basketball only and/or non-power conference team. I'd say top 35 would be about 50/50, top 30 about 80-20. We would also potentially have to fight the notion that the MAC hasn't sent two teams in, well, forever.

Top 50 RPI teams not selected:

2011-2012

44. Marshall (CUSA) 20-13

48. Oral Roberts (Summit) 27-6

2010-2011

35. Harvard (Ivy) 21-6

42. CSU (Horizon) 24-8

43. Missouri State (MVC) 25-8

46. St. Mary's (WCC) 23-8

2009-2010

40. Rhode Island (A10) 23-9

43. Wichita State (MVC) 24-9

45. UAB (CUSA) 23-8

47. Can't (MAC) 22-9

2008-2009

34. San Diego State (MWC) 21-9

40. Creighton (MVC) 26-7

46. UAB (CUSA) 22-11

47. Illinois State (MVC) 24-9

48. St. Mary's (WCC) 24-6

49. Niagara (MAAC) 26-8

2007-2008

30. Dayton (A10) 23-11

37. Illinois State (MVC) 24-10

39. Mississippi (SEC) 24-10

41. UMass (A10) 22-10

46. Ohio State (B10) 21-13

48. Creighton (MVC) 20-10

2006-2007

29. Air Force (MWC) 22-8

36. Missouri State (MVC) 21-10

39. Bradley (MVC) 20-12

41. Florida State (ACC) 20-12

43. Drexel (Col) 22-8

45. Utah State (WAC) 22-11

46. Clemson (ACC) 21-10

48. Alabama (SEC) 20-11

50. Syracuse (BE) 22-10

2005-2006

22. Hofstra (Col) 24-6

24. Missouri State (MVC) 20-8

39. St. Joseph's (A10) 18-13

40. Cincinnati (BE) 18-12

41. Creighton (MVC) 19-9

47. Michigan (B10) 18-10

RPI rankings via www.realtimerpi.com

[Dave in Green]

The following is totally speculative. RPI Forecast currently projects the Zips going 14-2 in the regular MAC season and having a 22-6 record with a 52.6 RPI going into the MAC tournament. They apparently do not include a projection for the BracketBuster game until the pairings are announced. They further project that if the Zips win all their conference games and finish the regular season at 24-4 (again excluding the BracketBuster game), they'd have an RPI of 35.1. Add to that a good BracketBuster win and a win in the MAC tournament semifinal, and the Zips would have a record of 26-4, a 23-game winning streak and an RPI close to 30 entering the MAC championship game. If they lost there to OU by 1 point, they'd be 26-5 with an RPI probably somewhere between 30 and 40, but would have an undefeated conference season and 23-game win streak on their resume. I'm guessing they'd be on the bubble for an at-large bid depending on what happens with other teams.

[GoZips]

I would put more stock in these RPI analysis/forecasts IF they had WMU and CMU down in the high one hundreds AND Ohio and Cant between eighty and one hundred. Other wise, it is all fool's gold.

[Zipmeister]

If we can win out the regular season we will only be a few dozen tragic bus accidents from a top 25 ranking.

[ZipGB8]

The Zips are now 13-4, 4-0 in the MAC. We've now won 9 in a row, and haven't lost a game in over a month.

The Zips next three games are at Toledo, home for Buffalo and then back to NW Ohio for a matchup vs. Bowling Green. Of those squads Toledo is probably playing the best right now, but they are not very deep, and I expect the Zips to be able to take care of them. There is a strong possibility that we could go into the OU home game on February 2nd at 16-4, 7-0 in conference and riding a 12 game winning streak.

So here is the question, IF the Zips are able to take these next 3, do we start receiving a couple of top 25 votes? I would have to think so, particularly given that there aren't a whole lot of truly elite teams in the country this year. It would sure make for an interesting game on February 2nd if the Zips and Bobcats were both sitting at 7-0 in conference and receiving top 25 consideration.

I'll tell you what man. If other schools in conferences such as Horizon League or Colonial Athletic or Northeast Conference can get top 25 votes just for being the best in their conference then the Zips should. The Horizon League at least is ranked around where the MAC is and whenever Valpo or Butler (previous years) reel off 8-10 straight wins and separate from other teams in their conference, they get a few votes. There are even Atlantic 10 teams who are like 4th or 5th in the conference that will get Top 25 votes even when their RPI is outside the Top 50 or when they have weak non-conference schedules. It's the ranking of the conferences that count more than strength of schedule when it comes post-season time.

Sometimes it takes other schools from the conference to have consistent 20-25 win programs to bring the conference rank up. We all know about the George Mason Final Four run in 2006 that earned the Colonial Athletic at extra at large bid to the tournament and then when the conference played roulette in recent years, their ranking dropped. Or the Atlantic 10 for example, when they had more than 2 teams show that they could beat ranked opponents consistently each year, they became a high-major when they were mid-major for years. But the one thing that I gripe at when it comes to the tournament selections, is the quality wins vs. key losses list.

Not every mid-major school can play the higher ranked teams they want too each year. Few schools get lucky with that. And the ones that do usually are the ones that kiss up to ESPN and ESPN2 and will play a Duke, North Carolina, or Florida every year, and boom, they get more sympathy. That's why I blame that conference shifting stuff on why mid major conferences can never get their rank up. Like this year, Butler decided they're too good for the Horizon League, well they just allowed the HL to drop back to 17th when they were 14th.

[FromdaBurgh]

I have a question....what will happen if we and OU have the same record (though it's not going to happen..but one must ask anyway)...how will they determine the Reg Season Champion??

[ZachTheZip]

I have a question....what will happen if we and OU have the same record (though it's not going to happen..but one must ask anyway)...how will they determine the Reg Season Champion??

The MAC has developed a convoluted tie-breaker system.

[zippy5]

Fight to the death

[MDZip]

I have a question....what will happen if we and OU have the same record (though it's not going to happen..but one must ask anyway)...how will they determine the Reg Season Champion??

This is from the Mens Basketball Championship page that was updated Feb 2012, so assuming they use the same procedures this year the tie is first resolved head to head and then by going down the standings with the next highest rated team so for example say Akron and Ohio finish 14-2 with one loss againt each other and Akron loses to Toledo and OU to Can't. If Can't Finishes third at 11-5 and Toledo fourth at 10-6 Akron would get the higher seed based on the better record against the higher finisher (Akron 2-0 against Can't with OU being 1-1). If Akron and OU both finished 15-1 with the loss against each other it would come down to a coin flip for the tournament seeding but I suspect they would just issue a co-championship for the regular season. Long way to go before we start worrying about that.

Men’s Basketball Tie-Breaker & Tournament Seeding Procedures

TIE-BREAKER PROCEDURE

A. Head-to-head competition

B. Division Record (10 games) (For the purpose of determining the Divisional Champion ONLY)

C. Winning percentage* vs. ranked conference teams

(top to bottom, regardless of division, vs. common opponents regardless of the number of times played)

D. Coin flip

*Winning percentage is used instead of record because of situations where teams do not play each other the same number of times. Therefore, a team that is 1-0 (1.000) would win the tiebreaker over a team that is 1-1 (.500).

For multiple team ties:

1. Total won-lost record of games played among the tied teams

2. Two-team tie-breaker procedure goes into effect (refer to A).

NOTE: Once a three-team tie has been reduced to two teams, the two-team tiebreaker will go into effect.

TOURNAMENT SEEDING – MEN

Seeding for the men’s tournament will be based on overall conference record. Teams will be seeding 1 through 12. Teams seeded 1 and 2, shall earn preliminary (first and second round) and quarterfinal round byes and advance to the semi-final round; teams seeded 3 and 4, shall earn first and second round byes and advance to the quarterfinal round. Teams seeded 5-12 will participate in the first round games on their respective campuses.

[ZachTheZip]

The problem with tie-breakers this year stems from how post-season ineligible Toledo is treated.

[MDZip]

The problem with tie-breakers this year stems from how post-season ineligible Toledo is treated.

My understanding is they will be accounted for in the tiebreaker evaluation (like in the case I stated above) but will not be included in the seeding which means for this year, the #5 seed will get a bye into the second round against the winner of #8 and #9. Wherever Toledo would fall, everyone else will just move up one seed line.

[zippy5]

So if they each lose one game, to each other, the tiebreaker is a coin flip. Nice.

[MDZip]

So if they each lose one game, to each other, the tiebreaker is a coin flip. Nice.

I can see the logic in it, but if the MAC wants to encourage better OOC schedules maybe RPI or Kenpom rankings could be the final tiebreaker instead of a coin flip since everything else would be even. Since you are trying to pick the best team maybe use that since it takes into account both record and SOS. The in conference games will come out to be almost exactly even so that might be a small way to encourage better scheduling.

[Dave in Green]

There are plenty of different MAC stats that could be used to break a tie, starting with margin of victory in the case that the Zips and OU split their two games.

[jeaglet1]

I say they go with the Baseketball tie breaker and just have two-man sack races...

Dan Patrick: With the first nine months of the Baseketball postseason out of the way, the playoff picture is starting to emerge.

Kenny Mayne: So, with last night's victory over Boston, next week the Milwaukee Beers must beat Indianapolis in order to advance to Charlotte. That's in an effort to reduce their magic number to three.

Dan Patrick: Right, and then the Beers can advance to the National Eastern Division North to play Tampa.

Kenny Mayne: So, if the Beers beat Detroit and Denver beats Atlanta in the American Southwestern Division East Northern, then Milwaukee goes to the Denslow Cup, unless Baltimore can upset Buffalo and Charlotte ties Toronto, then Oakland would play LA and Pittsburgh in a blind choice round robin. And if no clear winner emerges from all of this, a two-man sack race will be held on consecutive Sundays until a champion can be crowned.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0131857/quotes

[originalrowdy]

It'll be difficult to have an RPI low enough for at-large consideration when Creighton continues to lose.