Bold Prediction

[UAZipster0305]

This raises the RPI of every MAC team because they played a ranked opponent

I don't think this is true. DiG?

[Dave in Green]

I don't think this is true. DiG?

There's nothing in the RPI formula that accounts for top 25 ranking.

[bUAkronG]

Anyone who doesn't think the rest of the games aren't going to be getting tougher and tougher is just fooling themselves. Many times in history a team has finally pulled itself up to a top 25 ranking only to lose soon thereafter. What the Zips have already accomplished and what they're still in the process of accomplishing is darned difficult. There are 347 D-I teams fighting for 25 elite positions in the poll. At this level, it's no longer a game. It's cutthroat competition. It takes tremendous talent, toughness and tenacity to prevail. What's happened in the past is history. What may happen in the future is speculation. Past Zips teams have no bearing on what this team can accomplish. Either you believe that this team has more talent, toughness and tenacity than any previous Zips team or you don't. It's as simple as that.

Well said, Dave. I understand that the future is uncertain still but to say that I the past is applicable to the present would be foolish. No Zips team has ever broken the top 25. I believe this team has what it takes to keep winning.

[LZIp]

#24 in the Coaches Poll!!!!!!!

Now ANOTHER bold prediction:

We win two this week and break into the AP Top 25

And

Wait for it.....

A TOP 25 TEAM IN BOTH POLLS AT THE END OF THE SEASON WILL GET AN AT LARGE (IF NEEDED).

link?

[skip-zip]

This prediction (above) has one problem:

For us to get at-large, we'd have to lose one more game. And that would knock us out of Top-25 chances in both polls for the remainder of the year.

[akzipper]

Anyone who doesn't think the rest of the games aren't going to be getting tougher and tougher is just fooling themselves. Many times in history a team has finally pulled itself up to a top 25 ranking only to lose soon thereafter. What the Zips have already accomplished and what they're still in the process of accomplishing is darned difficult. There are 347 D-I teams fighting for 25 elite positions in the poll. At this level, it's no longer a game. It's cutthroat competition. It takes tremendous talent, toughness and tenacity to prevail. What's happened in the past is history. What may happen in the future is speculation. Past Zips teams have no bearing on what this team can accomplish. Either you believe that this team has more talent, toughness and tenacity than any previous Zips team or you don't. It's as simple as that.

I honestly don't think this team has done anything to prove they are different than any previous Zips teams. Winning 12 MAC games? Beating a school from a major conference? Beat OhioU in Akron? Beat Can't? All Happened last year. We have 4 games left and can still finish with the same record in conference as last year. Yes 1-3 would be an awful finish, but it's happened before.

[akronzips71]

This prediction (above) has one problem:

For us to get at-large, we'd have to lose one more game. And that would knock us out of Top-25 chances in both polls for the remainder of the year.

I disagree. If our only loss is the championship game and we are #22, I don't think there will be a top 25 impact at that point. Every team loses one sooner or later, and at that point there might not even be another poll before selection Sunday.

[Dave in Green]

If the Zips win out but lose the MAC tournament championship game, it would be extremely iffy whether they'd hold on to the bottom of the top 25 or not. There are a lot of good teams hanging around the fringes, and it would come down to how a lot of other teams fared. I don't think it's a predictable outcome.

[zippy5]

I disagree. If our only loss is the championship game and we are #22, I don't think there will be a top 25 impact at that point. Every team loses one sooner or later, and at that point there might not even be another poll before selection Sunday.

No way that we win 5 more games and only move up two spots. I'd expect around a #17 ranking or higher by that point. Teams in front of us losing, plus us adding more wins is good for a couple spots each week. Just win, baby!

[akronzips71]

Here is what I am taking about:

The MAC championship is March 16

Selection Sunday is March 17. Since there is no poll in between, whatever we go into Cleveland ranked at is what we are ranked at on Selection Sunday.

Therefore, if we go in #20, no matter what happens in Cleveland we go to Sunday #20

So the question for DIG is:

Has a Top 25 team EVER been denied a ticket to the dance?

[K92]

I honestly don't think this team has done anything to prove they are different than any previous Zips teams. Winning 12 MAC games? Beating a school from a major conference? Beat OhioU in Akron? Beat Can't? All Happened last year. We have 4 games left and can still finish with the same record in conference as last year. Yes 1-3 would be an awful finish, but it's happened before.

I bet you hate beer, steak & titties.

[Dave in Green]

@akronzips71, you may be on to something there. Don't have time to work on it this minute, but will try later this evening. Being ranked around #20 in both polls prior to MAC tournament championship Saturday and selection Sunday might put some added pressure on the selection committee.

[Zipgrad01]

I bet you hate beer, steak & titties.

And oxygen

[LZIp]

Here is what I am taking about:

The MAC championship is March 16

Selection Sunday is March 17. Since there is no poll in between, whatever we go into Cleveland ranked at is what we are ranked at on Selection Sunday.

Therefore, if we go in #20, no matter what happens in Cleveland we go to Sunday #20

So the question for DIG is:

Has a Top 25 team EVER been denied a ticket to the dance?

in 2004, #25 Utah State was left out.

I believe #25 UNLV was left out sometime in the 90s.

[Dave in Green]

Finally had a chance to check, and @LZip is correct. Utah State was 25-2 in the 2003-2004 season before they lost their conference championship game. They were ranked in the low-20s of the top 25 in both the AP and Coaches polls, and had been for weeks. Despite finishing with a 25-3 record and being ranked in the top 25 in both polls, they were passed over by the selection committee. It caused quite a stir at the time as it was said to be the first time a top 25 team in both polls had ever been excluded. So I'm not sure that there was also a similar UNLV exclusion in the 90s. Bottom line for any team without a blue-blood pedigree is either win your conference's automatic bid or prepare to be subjected to the whims of the selection committee. It's a long shot.

[zippy5]

Finally had a chance to check, and @LZip is correct. Utah State was 25-2 in the 2003-2004 season before they lost their conference championship game. They were ranked in the low-20s of the top 25 in both the AP and Coaches polls, and had been for weeks. Despite finishing with a 25-3 record and being ranked in the top 25 in both polls, they were passed over by the selection committee. It caused quite a stir at the time as it was said to be the first time a top 25 team in both polls had ever been excluded. So I'm not sure that there was also a similar UNLV exclusion in the 90s. Bottom line for any team without a blue-blood pedigree is either win your conference's automatic bid or prepare to be subjected to the whims of the selection committee. It's a long shot.

By long shot, you mean once ever? say teams ranked 20-25, so 6 teams per year, times how many years were at large picks selected? Wikipedia says 26 years of 64 teams, 10 with 65, and 2 with 68. So in the 38 years of 64+ team tournaments, one time has a ranked team been left out. That's 1 out of (38*6) 228 teams ranked 20-25 during those years. If we make it to the MAC title game still ranked (probably in the high teens by that point), we're in. No ifs ands or buts about it. Assuming of course we don't get our butts handed to us.

With that said, let's not dwell on plan B. Win em all and get a 7 or 8 seed

[Dave in Green]

@zippy5, you are making the assumption that all teams in the top 25s are created equal, as opposed to the assumption that the selection committee reserves the right to reject teams that inadvertently slip into the top 25 but have no history of deserving to belong there. Math alone is not applicable when it comes to the selection committee. You do know about the "eye test," right?

[zippy5]

@zippy5, you are making the assumption that all teams in the top 25s are created equal, as opposed to the assumption that the selection committee reserves the right to reject teams that inadvertently slip into the top 25 but have no history of deserving to belong there. Math alone is not applicable when it comes to the selection committee. You do know about the "eye test," right?

Well then my friend, you are assuming that all top 25 teams are from the big conferences with that statement, since only one was left out. But yes, I hate their selective use of stats more than anyone. RPI, top 50 wins, away wins.. They'll pull out any of these stats if a mid major is lacking in one. I can't argue with that.

[Dave in Green]

I'm saying that I am personally uncomfortable putting the Zips' fate in the hands of the selection committee no matter how many stats anyone puts forward.

[bUAkronG]

For what it's worth, that 2003-04 Utah State team lost in the first round of the NIT to Hawaii, so perhaps the selection committee might have been onto something there.

[zippy5]

I'm saying that I am personally uncomfortable putting the Zips' fate in the hands of the selection committee no matter how many stats anyone puts forward.

Fair enough

[akronzips71]

Memphis loses

#1 Indiana loses.

Win the next two and we should break #20 in the polls.

Golden opportunity time.

[MDZip]

This should make Gonzaga #1. Happy for them. It will be good to see a (very) strong mid-major up there and hopefully another one a bit lower down.

[akronzips71]

WHEN we win Saturday we will jump to at least #19.

The interesting scenario is this:

What if we win out, and lose the championship game at the Q to someone like Buffalo or WMU?

I think we still get the at large.

[zippy5]

WHEN we win Saturday we will jump to at least #19.

The interesting scenario is this:

What if we win out, and lose the championship game at the Q to someone like Buffalo or WMU?

I think we still get the at large.

I think it's a lock. But like I said, if we're #19 next week, let's keep winning and take it all. Don't worry about plan B, let's get our 7 seed.