Schedule

[MaxZIP]

If you're right (and I hope you are) I will happily take the tougher schedule in a year when we're not as good and take a little easier schedule in a year where we should be better.

I would settle for the pro Akron refs. The Ball State crew was awful with spotting the ball evenly.

[GP1]

Zips opponents this season are a combined 49-21 (70%)

Subtract the Miami 0-8 record and the remainder is 49-13 (79%)

Every team with the exception of Miami has a winning record with the lowest winning percentage being 62% credited to JMU and Bowling Green.

JMU 5-3 Borderline playoff team. Another loss would keep them out for sure.

La Laf 5-2 first place in their division in the Sun Belt

OU 6-2 Tied for second in MAC East

UCF 6-1 Contender for whatever league they are in now.

Michigan 6-1 Contender for Big Ten Championship and second place in their division

Ball State 8-1 Tied for first in MAC West

Bowling Green 5-3 Tied for second in MAC East

NIU 8-0 Tied for first in MAC West

Miami 0-8 Yikes! Better them than us.

Other than Miami, there isn't a D-1A team on our schedule sitting lower than second place in their respective division.

87.5% of our games are against teams with winning records. That number will at worst go down to 83.3% by the end of the year.

Here is my question. Is there a service out there that ranks strength of schedule for only MAC schools? I have to believe our SOS would be the most difficult in the MAC.

There is no quit in this team. They continue to compete against very difficult odds.

[Dave in Green]

@GP1, nice work on compiling some interesting stats. Sagarin's ratings are not sortable by SOS. But scrolling down through the SCHEDL(RANK) column, I come up with UA having the third toughest schedule among MAC teams at #57 in the country. Only Toledo (#46) and UMass (#56) are ranked with tougher schedules. By comparison, mighty NIU has the #127 toughest schedule and Ball State is down at #133.

[johnnyzip84]

We (rightfully IMO) complained about the MAC West schedule that was handed to us in 2013. But as the season progresses, it's evident that avoiding these guys has been a break. Even though I don't mind seeing U@B have some success, I'm sure glad Mack and Oliver are gone after this season.

[Zipmeister]

Another scheduling quirk that could help turn around a program like Akron is happening in Buffalo right now - they are leading the East and probably gaining confidence despite the fact they have played absolutely no one of consequence in the MAC. They are 4-0 in conference and have played the murderers row of EMU, WMU, UMass and Can't State who are a combined 3-15 and the only game that group has won that was not against each other was Miami. My point is schedule matters a lot, I believe that the Zips could be in the exact same spot given that schedule. We better not get NIU, Ball St and Toledo again next year (and either kick UMass out or get another football only school, this unbalanced thing sucks, the East champion should be the best team in the East not just the one who drew the most favorable West teams) but I believe Buffalo is in for a hard fall soon. I know complaining about the schedule isn't viewed well in some circles but the Zips could have used a break this year. Zips to beat Can't State and UMass and end the season with 4 well deserved wins. I hope next year treats us a little better.

After the pasting the Buffs put on Ohio this week, maybe they are better than you think.

[MDZip]

After the pasting the Buffs put on Ohio this week, maybe they are better than you think.

I'll wait until BGSU and Toledo for the final verdict. Still not convinced. Refs really screwed Ohio a couple times though its likely wouldn't have made a difference in the final outcome.

[MDZip]

Buffalo put a heck of a run at Toldeo after going down by 38 but still gave up 51 points in the loss. Now it gives them and BGSU one loss apiece to the thrid best team in the West so it looks like the MAC East Champion rightfully comes down to them and BGSU on Black Friday. I stil think BGSU is the better of the two but the game is at Buffalo. Buffalo does look better than I thought.

[legendofzippy]

Last year I wrote down every conference game over the past ten years, and by trends that appeared ins scheduling, was able to predict our schedule with 100% accuracy. I was actually shocked how good my prediction was.

Going by that same method our opponents next year should be: OOC; Penn State, Marshall, Pitt, (?). Conference; Ohio, Can't, UMass, Buffalo, Miami, EMU, WMU, CMU. Which by all accounts this should be a 7-5 (or better) season.

We play Can't, Ohio, Miami every year, as well as Temple every year (UMass takes Temple's scheduling spot), Buffalo and BGSU alternate every couple of years on our schedule (usually 1v1 than two years off). And west teams are usually not faced 3x years in a row. Of course this is just based upon the trend I've seen.

Interesting. I'm holding to the Steve French theory that the MAC purposely gives good teams a soft schedule to maximize bowl teams, so I doubt we get this. But, I really hope you're right.

[GP1]

I'm holding to the Steve French theory that the MAC purposely gives good teams a soft schedule to maximize bowl teams, so I doubt we get this.

French is absolutely right. Many conferences screw with teams for any number of reasons.

[LZIp]

I am pretty sure conferences have some sort of rotation set up.

[GP1]

I am pretty sure conferences have some sort of rotation set up.

We have played NIU in 2009, 2010, 2012 and 2013. Two of those seasons were bowl seasons. One of those seasons included a BCS bowl. This year looks to perhaps be a BCS bowl team. I'd sure like to get out of this rotation.

The MAC absolutely knows how down the program was and fed us NIU in 2012 and 2013...actually, I might also say we were fed to NIU. In any event, the MAC sees us as a weak program that will give NIU easy wins and a better chance for a BCS game. The MAC is making it easy for NIU to stay at the top and hard for schools like Akron to get out of the basement.

Nobody in the mac knew Ball State was going to be good this year? I find that impossible to believe.

The NFL was made great partly through easy schedules for bad teams and difficult schedules for good teams based upon previous season results. The mac should take previous seasons results in schedule design.

[LZIp]

The NFL was made great partly through easy schedules for bad teams and difficult schedules for good teams based upon previous season results. The mac should take previous seasons results in schedule design.

Sorry, but the exception of 2 games. NFL doesn't do that. They play their inter-division games every year and then match up divisions with divisions.

Someone earlier in the thread claimed to have figured out the rotation for MAC scheduling. I suppose next season we will see if your conspiracy theory is true or not.

[ZachTheZip]

Most conferences do have a rotation set up. The MAC does not, thanks to uneven divisions, and schedules teams however they feel like it. That has been to the detriment to Akron and to the great benefit of teams like Ohio (avoided playing NIU and Toledo for the 4th straight year) and NIU.

[GJGood]

Even if the MAC sets up the scheduling to maximize bowl teams at least we have already beaten two teams in our division and have a great shot at a third. A win this weekend and that bowl maximizing theory actually lightens our schedule next year significantly as the three MAC teams we defeated would all be in our own division and likely finish behind the Zips in the standings.

[Dr Z]

The NFL was made great partly through easy schedules for bad teams and difficult schedules for good teams based upon previous season results. The mac should take previous seasons results in schedule design.

Explaination of the NFL scheduling.

- Six games in division (two against each opponent)

- Four games against another division in conference (on a three-year rotation)

- Four games against a division out of conference (on a four-year rotation)

- Two games against the other teams who had the corresponding divisional finish in conference (these are the "parity" games)

[Dave in Green]

There's no issue too big or too small for conspiracy theories. The conspiracy theory that the MAC deliberately screws UA with tough football schedules is pretty simple to resolve. Simply Ask The A.D. if he's satisfied that the MAC gives UA a fair break on football scheduling and if he can share with fans how the MAC determines UA's schedule every season. I'm pretty sure the answer will be that the MAC has a similar system to other college conferences and the NFL.

[GP1]

Explaination of the NFL scheduling.

- Six games in division (two against each opponent)

- Four games against another division in conference (on a three-year rotation)

- Four games against a division out of conference (on a four-year rotation)

- Two games against the other teams who had the corresponding divisional finish in conference (these are the "parity" games)

Please note the word "was".

[GP1]

I'm pretty sure the answer will be that the MAC has a similar system to other college conferences and the NFL.

I'm pretty sure the answer will be that as well. It's the answer a weakling like our AD would give. Is it that though?

[Dave in Green]

It's standard procedure for those who promote conspiracy theories to always say that you can't get an honest answer from anyone. Therefore, the conspiracy theories can live on forever and the pushers of the conspiracy theories can suck in new believers. So the question to those who would honestly like a definitive answer on this one is, what exactly would it take to make you satisfied that you'd found the truth about whether or not the MAC deliberately tries to screw UA in football scheduling?

[Zipmeister]

Please note the word "was".

So noted.

The word "was" shows up twice in the link, not including the first three letters in the word "Washington."

And your point is......................

[GP1]

It's standard procedure for those who promote conspiracy theories to always say that you can't get an honest answer from anyone. Therefore, the conspiracy theories can live on forever and the pushers of the conspiracy theories can suck in new believers. So the question to those who would honestly like a definitive answer on this one is, what exactly would it take to make you satisfied that you'd found the truth about whether or not the MAC deliberately tries to screw UA in football scheduling?

I think I know the truth (see post above in regards to the amount of times UofA has had to play one of the best teams in the league in recent years when we were down). I'd like the pattern of behavior on the part of the league as directed towards UofA to change. Actually, it isn't to screw with Akron as much as it is to put what has become a league darling in a favorable position.

Is the pattern of behavior deliberate on the part of the mac? Yes, see post above.

It shouldn't be shocking when a league does this. They do it all the time. Prior to having so many injuries, it was assumed that Georgia would be the class of the sec east. If one looks at the Georgia schedule, it is difficult, but it never puts them in a position where they have to play two road games in a row (the Florida game is neutral in Jacksonville). The amount of road games in a row is a key indicator when betting on games so there is substance to screwing teams with road games. The schedule sets up real nice for them just in case they have an early season loss to South Carolina, which they didn't. All of the sudden they get injuries and things fall apart. The people who run the sec have to be having fits that Missouri is atop the sec east. They don't like anyone other than the old guard teams having success.

Case in point, South Carolina. USC is the red headed stepchild of the sec. They like having them around, but they don't like them having any real success as they aren't part of the old guard. If one looks at the South Carolina schedule one sees three freaking road games in a row. It guarantees at least one loss just in case they accidentally beat Georgia early in the season. They lost one of the games and should have lost to Missouri had they not crapped their pants. USC was put in a position to fail by the league. Three road games in a row is not an accident.

So, this isn't really about Akron. It is about how leagues make favorable schedules for darlings. NIU is the darling of the league right now and the league is taking care of them. We shouldn't pretend these things don't happen. They happen repeatedly every year in a number of leagues because leagues have an interest in presenting their league in a favorable way.

[Dave in Green]

@GP1, so let me get this straight. This is a grander conspiracy than just the MAC and UA. This conspiracy spreads across the country through multiple conferences. Every year shadowy figures gather in darkened rooms and deliberately rig schedules to favor some teams and screw others. So the concept of conferences being run by member schools is a sham. The member schools have no say in the scheduling process even though the schools pay the salaries of the shadowy figures making up the schedules. But no one close to the process from any of the schools will publicly admit what's going on. Even the schools that get screwed the most never openly complain about it, and the media pretends like it doesn't exist. Only a few anonymous posters on internet forums have figured it out, and the rest of us are asked to trust that the conspiracy is proven by a few random examples. Have I got that all right?

[GP1]

@GP1, so let me get this straight. This is a grander conspiracy than just the MAC and UA. This conspiracy spreads across the country through multiple conferences. Every year shadowy figures gather in darkened rooms and deliberately rig schedules to favor some teams and screw others. So the concept of conferences being run by member schools is a sham. The member schools have no say in the scheduling process even though the schools pay the salaries of the shadowy figures making up the schedules. But no one close to the process from any of the schools will publicly admit what's going on. Even the schools that get screwed the most never openly complain about it, and the media pretends like it doesn't exist. Only a few anonymous posters on internet forums have figured it out, and the rest of us are asked to trust that the conspiracy is proven by a few random examples. Have I got that all right?

I wouldn't use the word conspiracy. It is a pattern of behavior that has been more revealed recently as conference have grown into multiple divisions and a small number of games between divisions have to be played annually.

Do they meet in darkened rooms? No, they do it completely in the open and few question it. The strong schools pick on the weak and the weak can't effectively fight back for a number of reasons. One is ADs who aren't effective at their jobs and not taken seriously by their peers in the conference. Do you think a guy like Tom Wistrcill is going to complain? The guy is probably a laughing stock among mac ADs because he ran an entire football program into the ground in less than 12 months hiring an unqualified buddy at a point when the school had just built a $65 million stadium. You guys have to understand what a horrible position we are in with TW as AD. There is no way he can effectively lobby for the interests of UofA. One day the guy is no longer going to be working at Akron and the best he will be able to do is work for a minor league baseball team.

Member institutions? The assumption is every school is equal in the membership. Every institution is not equal. We are not on the same footing as an Alabama so let's not pretend they are all the same. In the world of college athletics, there are two types of people running athletic departments. Queen Bees and Wanna Bees. The people who work in athletics at UofA are Wanna Bees so they aren't going to do too much to upset the Queen Bees and that is how we get screwed. Since the Wanna Bees want to work for the Queen Bees, or at least the Queen Bee schools one day, they don't like to upset them or they never make it to the top of their profession. The first concern of athletic directors is their career. Somewhere down the list from there is the school they are working for.

Article The media doesn't pretend it doesn't exist. They just don't report on it enough. Actually, there are ways to manipulate schedules to make seasons more interesting. More interesting seasons make for more compelling articles about the season. More compelling articles and seasons make for more readers. More readers make for more money.

Steve French has been talking about it. The media isn't ignorant to what is going on. The time to complain about scheduling isn't when the team is 3-7. We need an AD who can complain about it effectively while scheduling meetings are taking place.

Manipulating schedules to make it favorable for one team to do well could also make good business sense and should not be looked at as a total negative. I think the treatment we are getting from the MAC is bad for UofA, but it could be good for the league to take a crap on us. It could also be good for us to get crapped on if one looks at it from another angle. It is good business for the MAC to make NIU a team that can make a BCS game. In the end, there is more money for everyone. Again, this isn't about conspiracy as much as it is about patterns of behavior. Why is the MAC taking the action to have UofA play NIU four of five years when they are a good program and UofA is bad? Couldn't that answer be to keep NIU good so they can make a BCS game and everyone benefits? This answer shouldn't be dismissed as an impossibility.

[Dave in Green]

Oh, I missed the anti-Wistrcill element in my summary. How could I ever forget the incompetent athletic director part of the theory? Anyway, it's pretty easy to formulate a theory and then selectively pick a few specific examples that support the theory. Actually proving a theory beyond reasonable doubt requires a lot more than anecdotal evidence. For example, some conference teams playing others more frequently is explained by the fact that most conferences have an open, publicized policy of "partnering" teams where it's mutually agreed upon that they'll play each other more often than other teams in the conference. To prove the theory that conferences always favor some teams in scheduling and screw others, you'd need to document a long-running pattern involving many teams over many years, and demonstrate how that deviates from random scheduling.

Of course you can always find scattered schedule grumbling every season from different quarters. I've heard scheduling complaints as long as I've been following sports. It's a lot like grumbling about the refs. It's always there as background white noise. The problem is that you can't find a major, definitive piece of investigative reporting documenting pervasive unfair scheduling on a national scale. To believe that something is true on the flimsiest of evidence borders on paranoia. I'm open to considering the thought process behind any theory, but I'm not delusional.

[GP1]

How could I ever forget the incompetent athletic director....

It will be hard to. His stench will be around long after he is gone. When is his contract up anyhow?