Look at the 2014 Schedule

[Balsy]

I thought it’d be nice to start a thread on the football schedule itself. There’s been some discussion about the Tuesday night games and attendance in this thread…however I thought it’d be nice to start a thread dedicated to discussing the games themselves. Our expectations, our hopes etc… This is the first time in a long time I’ve felt that ever game on our schedule is winnable (A feeling I’m sure we all haven’t had in a VERY long time. I by no means believe we can run the table, that’s just insane…but this schedule does present some very interesting opportunities for the Zips.

Game 1: Home vs. Howard

What a way to start off our year! For once, we get our FCS “Cupcake” on the first game of the year so we have a chance to start off on a good note. The Bison went 6-6 last year and have a second year head coach.

Game 2: Away vs. Penn State

The last couple of years there have been two games that I said we were guaranteed to be blown out; both of which I attended in person. Those games were Tennessee and Michigan. Though Tennessee did blow us out in the 4^th; it was not in sweeping fashion as I had expected.
Penn State has a new coach in James Franklin. I like this matchup a lot.
The questions I have: How much (if any) impact is the sanctions from a couple of years ago going to affect this season (team experience), and can Bowden dial a game plan like he did against Michigan? Football fundamentals will win this game. Protect the ball, and win the battle of turnovers.

Game 3: Home vs. Marshall

IMO, there is a lot of potential to make noise early in the Season for the Zips. Akron will play it’s former MAC rival after a BYE week. Imagine the momentum the program would have if it really could pull off an upset against Penn State? Not likely, I know, but there is a chance early. The Thundering Herd

Game 4: Away vs. Pittsburgh

Another close OOC away game!

Game 5: Home vs. EMU

This might be the first time that the Zips return home for “homecoming” and are actually able to win the game. There seems to be a good chance that the Zips can enter conference play on a 2-2 record. From the improvement we all expect they should be able to knock off one of the three D-I teams.
I can’t remember the last time the Zips won a homecoming game…but this certainly looks like the best opportunity for the Zips to break the cycle and for Bowden to continue his success of ending embarrassing streaks.

Game 6: Home vs. Miami

Miami went 0-12 last year, and have a first year head coach. Though they might turn it around some day, this looks like two straight favorable games for the Zips.

Game 7: Away vs. Ohio

This is the part of the schedule I see as being a major possible road-bump. Tettleton FINALLY graduated, leaving the QB spot to new blood. The Bobkittens are still a strong team; but the question is how much will the loss of Tettleton affect them?

Game 8: Away vs. Ball State

Last season I felt that there were only three games that we were truly outmatched and outgunned in; the UCF, Ohio and the Ball St games. Even BGSU and Ohio could have been beaten by last year’s version of the Zips…however if Akron and Ball St played 100 times, I’m not sure we’d win 20% of them.

Game 9: Home vs. BGSU

When I look at this game, way too early on paper, I just don’t see any way we can win. In conference play, this looks (IMO) to be the hardest conference game. If anyone has any thoughts on BG please share…

Game 10: Away vs. Buffalo

How good was Buffalo last year? Everytime I watched them it seemed that the only thing that was keeping them in the game was the Defense…a defense spearheaded by Khalil Mack. Considering we’ve also had some turnover on defense, this is a game at this moment I do not expect us to win…but depending upon the season it might end up as a push later on.

Game 11: Home vs. UMass

I don’t think that we could have asked for a better final home game…except for the fact that it is a Tuesday…in November…All things Considered, with a favorable matchup against the Minuetment with the last game of the season, there is a very good chance our home W’s will be over 500 (another horrible streak we have a chance to end this year). This is also a possible trap game for the Zips, since UMass has joined the conference we are 1-1 against them. The loss coming at the Big Dialer.

Game 12: Away vs. Can't

There is nothing I can say about this game other then

Bonus game: MAC Championship game/Beyond?

If I were to give a catch phrase for this season it would literally be “start strong, finish strong”. The Zips certainly have a chance to make some noise early in the year in both the conference and OOC slate. About midway through the season is when I see the Zips playing their hardest conference games with back-to-back weeks against Ohio, Ball St, BGSU, Buffalo. UMass and Can't seem to be a great way to end the season.

[Staton14]

Somehow when looking at the schedule, I didn't even realize we were playing Pittsburgh haha. Looks like I'm going to my first Zips football road game, other than Can't State.

[LZIp]

nice thread, Balzy. Looking forward to hear some people's thoughts before heading into the season.

Game 1: Home vs. Howard

Love the cupcake being the first game of the season as well. A great chance to start off the season on a good note and continue to build on that momentum that we had at the end of last season.

Game 2: Away vs. Penn State

Hackenburg has been one of the great up and coming QBs the past few seasons. I expect him to continue to improve. As far Franklin, not really sure how I feel about him. Did not think it was that great of a hire, though he did improve Vanderbilt's program *some*, it wasnt spectacular by any means, in my eyes. OU beat them a few seasons ago. As time goes on, I think their sanctions will continue to take more of an affect, though im not so sure it will hurt them much that early into the season.

Game 3: Home vs. Marshall

A great mid-major program. Not sure of the reasoning, but I always enjoy watching Marshall play. Is Cato gone? If so, I believe we have a chance. If not, I dont think we win this one.

Game 4: Away vs. Pittsburgh

Love how close it is to Akron. I was watching their bowl game and came away very impressed with their young talent. Very good young QB, RB, and WR. I could very easily seeing this being our worst loss of the season. However, Pitt seems to have been very Jekyl and Hyde the past few years, so I also wouldn't be surprised if it is close.

Game 5: Home vs. EMU

Hopefully this Homecoming goes a lot better than last season's. I expect a W.

Game 6: Home vs. Miami

Miami was horrible last season and I expect them to be horrible again. I expect another W.

Game 7: Away vs. Ohio

Thank God Tettleton and Blankenship are finally gone. However, I don't think I've seen someone regress more over a season than he did last year (I actually blame that on the coach). From what I saw of their back up last season (Vick? If my memory serves me correc), he looks to have some real potential. Other than that I do not know what to expect from them. Should be an entertaining game.

Game 8: Away vs. Ball State

Wenning is gone. Snead as well? If so, I like our chances to win. Wenning is one of the best and most underrated QBs the conference has had in a while, IMO. I dont think his value to the team could be overstated.

Game 9: Home vs. BGSU

Its nice that our guaranteed home nationally televised game is against the reigning MAC champs. However, if everything goes as planned, they should handle us by 2-3 scores. BUT, they do have a new head coach and we were up on them 14-0 in 1st quarter last season before our offense went MIA, so you never know.

Game 10: Away vs. Buffalo

Mack is gone and the only offensive threat they had was Oliver, who is gone. Don't really know what they have coming up, but as of right now I think we should win this one.

Game 11: Home vs. UMass

New coach. The stud RB is a year older. Don't know anything else about them, but don't expect a huge improvement. Disappointed if we don't come away with a W.

Game 12: Away vs. Can't

Archer is gone. The other RB gone? I liked what I saw out of the QB earlier in the season, but it seemed he regressed some. Still like his potential. Still not sure how I feel about Haynes. Should be a competitive game as it usually is and we end the regular season with a W.

As of now, I am predicting 7-5. My only locks are W's over Howard, Miami, EMU, and UMASS. I would be more than satisfied coming out of the OOC at 2-2, because that mens we beat somebody we weren't supposed to. If I had to choose, definitely would want it to be over PSU. I certainly think we stand a chance in every game.

[lance99]

I play along……...

Howard

The first game of the year and should be a win!

Penn State

Do anyone realize that they Play Central Florida in London(as in England, not Ontario) before they play the Zips? This would be the game to win. Will they, not sure, but its winnable.

Marshall

As this will probably be the only game I will attend this year(because of all of the Tuesday games), one thing keeps popping into my head. Fan Support. This could quickly turn into a Marshall Home Game because their fans will travel to Akron. People need to show up for this one! We will win, but by how close.

Pitt

Once upon a time, Pitt was a power in Football. Not anymore. I see this as a win assuming that Pitt plays this as a throw away game and the Defense gets it done!

Eastern Michigan

Homecoming and it's Eastern! Talk about the stars aligning for this one!

Miami

Last season, they was one of the worst teams in the country. This season, still bad but improving!

Ohio

IMHO, their reign of terror is over and we will finally win one, In Athens of all places!

Ball State and Bowling Green

Both teams will be Top Level in the MAC, its a good thing that we don't play Toledo this year. Calling them both losses, but could split.

Buffalo

Will the real Buffalo please stand up. Other than that bogus call durning the Ohio game last season, their record was a product of the schedule. Unless it is a blizzard there, it's a win!

UMASS

This game scares me. This will be right in the middle of the four strait Tuesday games and they are better. I am just hoping that fans will show up for this one! Its a win, but be careful.

Can't State

In all honesty, I wish that this was the Black Friday game. Going out to Can't, on a Tuesday Night Before Thanksgiving=Ghost Town. Can't State is back to being……well…...Can't State in Football again. With no Archer does not help. You will see EMU-type numbers in the stands! Its a win, but will anybody see it?

Conference Record:6-2

2014 Record: 9-3

[Zipgrad01]

Nice to see so many of you that confident about the Marshall game, but they may be the best team on our schedule. That is going to be a very tough game to win. I dont believe we have much of a shot against PSU or Pitt, but every other game is winnable. I feel a 7-5 season with wins over Howard, EMU, Miami, Ohio, Buffalo, Umass and Cant.

[ZachTheZip]

Penn State will be hit hardest by their sanctions this season, before they start recovering. They'll be FCS level in terms of scholarship players, which means they won't have much in the way of depth. Pitt is difficult, but Bowden has a way of getting him team to show up for the biggest opponents. Marshall is the best team on the schedule, but they're at home.

[johnnyzip84]

I'll take a slightly different approach and provide my "probability of winning" for each contest.

Game 1: Home vs. Howard

I hope they bring they're awesome band! -- 98%

Game 2: Away vs. Penn State

I'd like our chances against Hackenberg and company a little better if Freeman was still eligible, but I do think we'll move the ball against PSU. -- 10%

Game 3: Home vs. Marshall

Cato is a superior dual-threat talent at QB and lance99 is correct that the Blundering Turd love any excuse to escape Huntington. -- 35%

Game 4: Away vs. Pittsburgh

Since I'm a native Pittsburgher, I can make the bold prediction that this game will be much more competitive than the last time we faced the Panthers, that result being a 35-0 drubbing in a rain soaked Pitt Stadium. Zip lines will have to play physical to have a shot. -- 15%

Game 5: Home vs. EMU

New coach, same unbelievable challenge for the Hurons....errr Eagles. -- 95%

Game 6: Home vs. Miami

I like the Martin hire, but he'll need more than 1 off-season. -- 90%

Game 7: Away vs. Ohio

I like the position of the game in this schedule. Bobcats will generally play sound football under Solich, but they will be breaking in some newbies. -- 45%

Game 8: Away vs. Ball State

Hmmm why haven't other teams made run at Lembo? No Snead or Wenning even things out quite a bit, but Muncie has been a tough nut to crack for the Zips. -- 40%

Game 9: Home vs. BGSU

Pitt exposed them a little in the Detroit, and we'll see how the new coach (who I think was a good hire) will do. -- 40%

Game 10: Away vs. Buffalo

Losing Mack, Oliver and Neutz will be difficult for Quinn. -- 65%

Game 11: Home vs. UMass

Whipple has had success in Amherst before, but not this soon.-- 90%

Game 12: Away vs. Can't

Durham has little help returning. -- 75%

If you go simply by who has the higher probability of winning (in my view), the predicted record would be 6-6. However, some of my "expected" losses are close enough to 50-50, that I fully expect the Zips to win at least ONE of the Ohio/BSU/BG games. And they might even sneak ONE of the OOC FBS tilts. After all, just looking at the latter 3 games, my estimated probability of a Zip defeat is 90%, 65% and 85% consecutively. 0.9*0.65*0.85 = 0.49725, meaning there is slightly less than a 50% chance of the Zips losing ALL THREE OOC FBS games IF you accept my probabilities for each game. Then again, 0.98*0.95*0.90*0.65*0.90*0.75 = 0.37 (<0.5) meaning UA would also probably lose one of the games for which I have them as favored. I call my system "Voodoo Statistics". Think it'll trickle down?

So I'm going 7-5 if we can sneak an OOC FBS victory, and 6-6 otherwise. If we beat OU in Athens however, 8-4 is definitely within reach. That will be the pivotal game of 2014.

[Dave in Green]

I can't compete with Voodoo Statistics.

[K92]

Using local beer as the predictor: (Using BA ratings)

Game 1: Home vs. Howard

In a stunning upset, Howard knocks off the Zips in the home opener! D.C. Brau's Wings of Armageddon is too much for Thirsty Dog's Barrel Aged 12 Dogs of Christmas. 97-92. 0-1

Game 2: Away vs. Penn State

Double Trouble for the Zips. Nearby Troegs from Hershey, PA brings a case of Nugget Nectar and defeats Hoppin' Frog's Hop Heathen 97-92. 0-2

Game 3: Home vs. Marshall

Turd fans bring along some decade-old Falls City and are embarrassed by Thirsty Dog's Barrel Aged Siberian Night. 94-77. 1-2

Game 4: Away vs. Pittsburgh

Pitt fans bust out the Brewers Reserve St. Nikolaus Bock Bier by Penn Brewing that they cellared from last Christmas, but Zip fans counter with HF D.O.R.I.S. the Destroyer which wins in a tight contest. 94-93. 2-2

Game 5: Home vs. EMU

Michigan has many award winning beers. Gulo Gulo I.P.L. from Wolverine State Brewery isn't one of them and is crushed by B.O.R.I.S. the Crusher Imperial Stout. 94-86. 3-2.

Game 6: Home vs. Miami

A growler full of Truth IPA from Cincinnati's Reingeist. Very nice. Try some of this Gangster Frog. Pop your collar and sit back down. 95-92. 4-2

Game 7: Away vs. Ohio

Jackie O's is a world class establishment serving the finest beers. Dark Apparition Russian Imperial Stout is a real heavy hitter, but so is Barrel Aged B.O.R.I.S. Oatmeal Imperial Stout. Zips Win. 96-94. 5-2

Game 8: Away vs. Ball State

Cardinal Fans cheat and bring in some 3F Permanent Funeral. Munster is really too far away from Muncie to be considered "local". Fortunately for them, MAC officials can't see past Mun. HF Barrel Aged Naked Evil gets burned in battle of titans. 100-95. 5-3.

Game 9: Home vs. BGSU

BG has to run up to the city and bring some Maumee Bay Total Eclipse Breakfast Stout. Very Impressive, rated at 95. This is Akron, bitchez. Thirsty Dog Wulver is a 97. 6-3

Game 10: Away vs. Buffalo

Bulls fans sipping on some Flying Bison Blackbird Stout on a Tuesday night get rolled by HF Hop Heathen. 92-88. 7-3.

Game 11: Home vs. UMass

Another case of some cheatin' sons a bitches. UMass fans pull out Sam Adams Utopias. First of all, UMass ain't in Boston and Utopias is a beer in name only. Doesn't matter. Zips are still winless at the Info vs. Minutemen. Barrel Aged B.O.R.I.S. Van Wink puts up valiant effort but goes down 100-96. 7-4.

Game 12: Away vs. Can't

Tuesday night the week of Thanksgiving at Dick Stadium. All the Flash fans bring to the party is a hacky sack, weed & body odor. Akron wins by default just by breaking out a half-full growler of Barktoberfest that had been riding in my trunk since the Miami game. 8-4.

If only local brew determined the success of our football team, Fred Karm would keep us in the MAC title hunt along with Western every year.

These are my Brewdoo statistics.

[UA1987]

Marshall is the game I'm circling. There will be key 2015 recruits at this contest and Bowden will want to throw in some wrinkles to upset this West Virginian team. If Bobby feels good, I'm guessing he'll be at this game too. We won't let this one get away like we did with the Ragin Cajuns.

[akzipper]

I'm predicting 7-5 as our best case scenario.

Wins: Howard, Marshall, EMU, Miami, Buffalo, UMass, Can&#39;t

Losses: Penn State, Pitt, Ohio, Ball State, BG

[Balsy]

Though I expect us to lose against Pitt and Penn State, I can also see good games as well as a chance to pull the upset. i agree with UA1987, Marshall looks like a ULL matchup, and I like our chances in taht type of game.

[Dr Z]

These are my Brewdoo statistics.

Well done.

[johnnyzip84]

Well done.

Indeed! Great effort. K92 needs to give a few pre-game speeches in 2014!

[GJGood]

Penn State will be hit hardest by their sanctions this season, before they start recovering. They'll be FCS level in terms of scholarship players, which means they won't have much in the way of depth. Pitt is difficult, but Bowden has a way of getting him team to show up for the biggest opponents. Marshall is the best team on the schedule, but they're at home.

I agree, I think Marshall may be the best team on the schedule too. I see legitimate opportunities to upset either PSU or Pitt as the Lions will be somewhat depleted still from the sanctions and the Panthers while extremely tough also seem a bit one dimensional. Upsetting both is probably too much to hope for. I believe Cato is back for Marshall and he may be the best QB we see all season as well.

[zippy5]

and the Panthers while extremely tough also seem a bit one dimensional.

Elaborate? I have Pitt season tickets and I can't figure out which part of their offense is one dimensional. It's pretty balanced. Depends how the new QB fares, but he looked okay in the Pizza bowl.

[ZachTheZip]

Elaborate? I have Pitt season tickets and I can't figure out which part of their offense is one dimensional. It's pretty balanced. Depends how the new QB fares, but he looked okay in the Pizza bowl.

Pitt was 59th in passing yards, but only 102nd in rushing yards. That's not very balanced.

[zippy5]

Pitt was 59th in passing yards, but only 102nd in rushing yards. That's not very balanced.

Pitt also ran the ball 51 more times than they passed. Their QB graduated, and they bring in a 4 star RB. I wouldn't expect the same numbers in 2014.

[ZachTheZip]

If they ran the ball that often, they were not getting very good results.

[zippy5]

If they ran the ball that often, they were not getting very good results.

Their top 2 RBs averaged 5.47 ypc and 4.66 ypc. I don't think the rankings are indicative of a "balanced" offense. Washington State would be a good example of a one dimensional team.

[UA1987]

Pitt also ran the ball 51 more times than they passed. Their QB graduated, and they bring in a 4 star RB. I wouldn't expect the same numbers in 2014.

Pitt is bringing in 4 4* recruits - ranked #55 at year end; 7-6 record

Penn State - #2 recruiting class behind OSU (many 4*'s) - ranked #52 at year-end; 7-5 record

Marshall - top recruiting class in Conf USA (3*'s), ranked #61 at year end - 10-4 record

While all three are good, the Marshall home game is our best shot at a FBS OOC victory in 2014. Anything could happen in these games, but Marshall's record is not a good yardstick of their strength. Marshall does not schedule heavy - example no ATM game in 2014, plus they don't play as well away from Huntington. I like this game as it is an old MAC matchup that makes sense to put on our schedule. With their schedule, Marshall has a legitimate chance of going undefeated, or close, and playing a top 25 team, or better, in a bowl at a neutral site. How can they afford this without a lop-sided matchup in a hostile venue? - they sell tickets at home.

[ZippyforPresident]

These are my Brewdoo statistics.

Spectacular. Titan of the Tankard indeed. One correction though. You misspelled "broodoo."

[K92]

Spectacular. Titan of the Tankard indeed. One correction though. You misspelled "broodoo."

I stand corrected. Just trying to have a little fun.

[GJGood]

Elaborate? I have Pitt season tickets and I can't figure out which part of their offense is one dimensional. It's pretty balanced. Depends how the new QB fares, but he looked okay in the Pizza bowl.

My apologies, no offense was intended. My thoughts on Pitt could be way off but it seems to me that with a new QB and some pretty good RB that the Panthers will likely be a more run heavy offense in 2014, at least to the point where if you can stop or significantly slow down the Pitt running game you'd have an excellent chance at winning. The question is can the Zips hinder that running game? That will be a tall chore.

[zippy5]

Haha no problem, I was just curious. ZTZ seemed to think they were pass-oriented, so I think the fact that no one is in agreement on what they do best shows they're semi-balanced. Pitt had a pretty rotten defense last year, could be a little bit of a shootout.