Game #5 Eastern Michigan

[Dave in Green]

Cumulative stats tell where you've been. Trends tell where you're going. As the Zips transition from some tough OOC games to relatively easier MAC games, the stats should trend up. Where the Zips already look pretty good in cumulative stats is in total defense, where they're a healthy #44 in the country. If they defend MAC teams the way they defended Pitt, the Zips could crack the top 25 in total defense.

[GP1]

Cumulative stats tell where you've been. Trends tell where you're going.

Fortune tellers tell you where you are going.

Cumulative stats tell you where you've been is true. Trend stats put the cumulative stats into a timeline.

[Balsy]

"There's liars, there's damned liars...and then there's statistics!" -Samuel Clemons

[Dr Z]

EDIT: And in the category of "what have you done for me recently". The Zips are 4 of 5 in their last five trips to the red zone while KP was at QB in games against Pitt and EMU. They are 5 of 6 counting the FG they got last Saturday after a turnover, but KP was not on the field. So, I guess the question is....If the Zips have won the last two games and the team has shown improvement in the red zone, why should I care about what the season average is? My expectation is improvement over the course of a season and I expect the Zips to be better at the end of the season than at the beginning of the season. The wrong stats can paint an inaccurate picture as to where a team is in the course of a season. Another example would be, if someone measured a human every year of their life on January 1, for 18 years, what would the average height of that person be and why would it matter? The Zips may just be late bloomers this year. It is critical that one goes beyond reading stats to using their brain to interpret the stats. My most positive thought about the Zips is, we are a really good team with room for improvement. We are already better than the team that won the MAC. There is no doubt we should be competing for the league championship with a realistic shot at beating any team in the league.

KP16 has gone from #110 (in the country) to #91 in QB efficiency rating in the last two games. So he is improving, but there is a lot of room. We will go as far as he takes us. The staff should be doing everything in their power to help his progression. When the Zips are predictably passing, we are not that good. This team needs to run the ball more to be an effective passing team.

[LZIp]

I still say that the WRs and the drop problem is a bigger issue than Pohl's play. Even our best WR in D'Orazio seems to have at least a drop a game.

When discussing the redzone offense, sometimes you have to take a deeper look instead of just looking at stats. Lets keep in mind the number of missed FGs the first two games, as well as the 4th down attempts out of desperation during the Penn St and Marshall games. If we weren't playing from well behind, those would have been easy field goals and the red zone offense would probably look a lot closer to average than putrid.

[GP1]

I still say that the WRs and the drop problem is a bigger issue than Pohl's play. Even our best WR in D'Orazio seems to have at least a drop a game.

Let me defend the WRs the same way I do KP. The search for perfection leads us to overblow mistakes. Saw a lot of games last weekend. Saw a lot of drops. In a game played by humans, there will be mistakes. We are experiencing normal problems good teams experience. Isn't this discussion better than the one about the coach kicking off both halves?

I just don't like the coaching staff benching the QB when their play calling is preventing the offense from getting into a rhythm.

[Dave in Green]

"There's liars, there's damned liars...and then there's statistics!" -Samuel Clemons

"Well, opinions are like ***holes. Everybody has one." -Harry Callahan

Statistics don't lie. It's the interpretation of statistics that can deceive. But over the years I've also found that women can be deceptive, and I've never been tempted to give up on them.

[Zipmeister]

Cumulative stats tell where you've been. Trends tell where you're going. As the Zips transition from some tough OOC games to relatively easier MAC games, the stats should trend up. Where the Zips already look pretty good in cumulative stats is in total defense, where they're a healthy #44 in the country. If they defend MAC teams the way they defended Pitt, the Zips could crack the top 25 in total defense.

A trend does not tell where you're going. A trend is a general direction in which something is developing or changing. It is based on historical data and there is no guarantee the trend will continue in the future. Although in this case I hope it does.

[Dave in Green]

A trend does not tell where you're going. A trend is a general direction in which something is developing or changing. It is based on historical data and there is no guarantee the trend will continue in the future. Although in this case I hope it does.

A trend tells you exactly where you went from where you were at the time the measurements were made. Of course there are no guarantees that a trend will remain consistent, or progress, or regress. There are no guarantees on most things in life. That's what the next set of data measures. Each successive set of data tells you which way things are trending at that point. What we all want to see with the Zips is a consistent trend upward, game after game after game. But consistent trends are rare. There are usually ups and downs along the way. A general upward trend would be just fine.

[Balsy]

"Well, opinions are like ***holes. Everybody has one." -Harry Callahan

Statistics don't lie. It's the interpretation of statistics that can deceive. But over the years I've also found that women can be deceptive, and I've never been tempted to give up on them.

Mark twain is the world's largest ***hole, so it's appropriate.

But on that, I think people put too much stock into statistics without putting them into a proper context. It statistics, numbers and facts are not used in the proper context, they're useless. Without proper context, it's simply cherry-picking to support a narrative/agenda.

[Jrship35]

At the end of the day (or game) ..... The only stat that matters is the score. ........ When you win, people could give a rats a$$ about the "trends" .... When you lose or are used to losing, people will look to stats and trends to try to justify losing

No offense to anyone, just my worthless opinion ?

[Dr Z]

I just don't like the coaching staff benching the QB when their play calling is preventing the offense from getting into a rhythm.

I can't speak on the EMU game because I wasn't there, but I was at the Pitt game, and the staff handled it perfectly. PS It wasn't the play calling.

[Zipmeister]

A trend tells you exactly where you went from where you were at the time the measurements were made. Of course there are no guarantees that a trend will remain consistent, or progress, or regress. There are no guarantees on most things in life. That's what the next set of data measures. Each successive set of data tells you which way things are trending at that point. What we all want to see with the Zips is a consistent trend upward, game after game after game. But consistent trends are rare. There are usually ups and downs along the way. A general upward trend would be just fine.

Wouldn't it have been easier to just say that you now recognize that a trend does not tell you where you are going?

[Dave in Green]

At the end of the day (or game) ..... The only stat that matters is the score. ........ When you win, people could give a rats a$$ about the "trends" .... When you lose or are used to losing, people will look to stats and trends to try to justify losing

No offense to anyone, just my worthless opinion ?

No offense taken by me. You express an attitude that's not uncommon among some fans. There's no shame in either having some interest or no interest in stats. What really matters is how much coaching staffs study stats and use them to their advantage in devising winning game plans. Ask Coach Bowden or someone on his staff if they find certain stats useful. Author Bill Connelly spoke with many coaches (including at least one MAC coach) for his book on the growing use of advanced stats by college football teams. The following exchange from an SI interview is entertaining:

SI: So are "stats for losers," or are they for everybody?

BC: I was a blogger who started in my mother-in-law's basement, so you can apply the loser label if you want. What's funny about that quote is when I shared that with [Wake Forest coach] Jim Grobe, he laughed, like knowingly. It's almost like a truism. It's funny because that was one of the things I wanted to explore with this book. From the start, college football coaches are some of the most analytical coaches around. They have to be. They've been watching film for decades. They've been breaking things down and looking for tendencies with basically what are analytics since the start of time. But they get in the "stats are for losers" mode when numbers are quoted to them, like "You sure are giving up a lot of passing yards per game, coach." They don't care about yards per game. When they go down the "stats are for losers" mode, it is because the stats being presented don't matter to them at all. But stats do. I wanted to talk to coaches in part because I wanted to bridge that gap. In my "Stats 101" chapter, I structured it as a coach trying to figure out what they can get from this. There's an enormous gap there, and I wanted to bridge it between how coaches use stats and how everybody else does.

[Jrship35]

No offense taken by me. You express an attitude that's not uncommon among some fans. There's no shame in either having some interest or no interest in stats. What really matters is how much coaching staffs study stats and use them to their advantage in devising winning game plans. Ask Coach Bowden or someone on his staff if they find certain stats useful. Author Bill Connelly spoke with many coaches (including at least one MAC coach) for his book on the growing use of advanced stats by college football teams. The following exchange from an SI interview is entertaining:

Completely agreed ........ I thought the conversation was regarding fans analyzing stats and trends. My point to that was simply that fans are fickle and if the team is winning, there isn't as much concentration on stats.

As a high school coach for the past 17 years, I can without a doubt tell you that stats and trends/tendencies are the beginning point for most coaches...... Coach Grobe's statement above is dead on point

My mistake on the discussion topic

[Dave in Green]

Wouldn't it have been easier to just say that you now recognize that a trend does not tell you where you are going?

It would have been easier but inaccurate. What I originally stated was correct in that it conveyed a general conversational idea to all but the odd outlier obsessed with parsing and challenging every word that could possibly be taken out of context and misconstrued.

[Dave in Green]

Completely agreed ........ I thought the conversation was regarding fans analyzing stats and trends. My point to that was simply that fans are fickle and if the team is winning, there isn't as much concentration on stats.

As a high school coach for the past 17 years, I can without a doubt tell you that stats and trends/tendencies are the beginning point for most coaches...... Coach Grobe's statement above is dead on point

My mistake on the discussion topic

You didn't make a mistake. You were correct that the conversation was primarily regarding fans analyzing stats and trends. Most fans don't have access to advanced stats like coaches do, and most wouldn't know how to make use of them even if they had them. For fans, readily available stats can be fun to follow but only give a small part of the total picture. They need to be taken in proper perspective.

[UA1987]

Just in case there is a die hard Eastern fan reading up on the game on this forum (doubtful, but just in case), the Eagles have some players and a very good HC.

Eastern reminds me a bit of Akron, a year or two removed, with different strengths and weaknesses. I believe Eastern will begin to trend up. The need for a QB in Ypsilanti is clear, and our wide receivers were too open for Eastern to have a chance to win. Better times are coming Eastern fans. Hang in there and enjoy the ride.

[Zipmeister]

It would have been easier.

Fixed it for you.

[Dave in Green]

Fixed it for you.

Nah, you fixed it for yourself. You own it.

[zippy_ua_00]

Good defense and a QB that doesn't lose the game is good enough to win most MAC games.

Correct, just ask russell wilson what an average qb that doesnt make mistakes with a good defense will get ya. A championship

[Dr Z]

russell wilson....average qb

Russell can lead my team any day of the week. BTW, another NFL success story with 2 stars from Rivals and Scout coming out of high school. There may be around seven to ten QB's I like better, but he is definitely in my upper half of starting QB's in the NFL right now. He seems to be working hard to learn as much as he can right now. By his own admittance, he is still learning.

I agree with your overall statement though, I'll take a good defense and a manager of the game, but do I have to? Can't I have a good defense and a Getsy or Frye at QB?

When you have a good defense, and a GREAT punter like we do, it's not so difficult to punt the ball. BUT we need an offense that can score a touchdown in the red zone. I think we need to tweak our offensive game to fit the guys that we have playing for us right now. It's fun to be a Zips fan right now, we have potential to put an awesome product on the field come December.

[GP1]

BUT we need an offense that can score a touchdown in the red zone.

I'm much less concerned about our scoring TDs in the red zone. We seem to have that under control. 80% in the last two games isn't Michigan's 100% level for the season, but it's pretty darn good. We are 83% successful in the last two games counting TDs and FGs.

My concern is our third down efficiency.

NFL teams spend 75% of their practices on third down offense and red zone offense. Can't score in the red zone if you don't get there. We are at a point now where scoring in the red zone isn't a problem. Getting there against good MAC teams will be a bigger problem if we don't improve third down efficiency. If we have to punt, I'd rather us use our punter to punt the ball inside the 20 than to punt for distance.

Our best defense is played when the other team doesn't have the ball and we don't have turnovers. Our defense is good now, it could become great if we improve our third down efficiency on offense.

[Dr Z]

I'm much less concerned about our scoring TDs in the red zone. We seem to have that under control. 80% in the last two games

Huh?

[GP1]

Huh?

I don't think that website is correct. Makes me think my third down efficiency link is wrong as well because it came from the same website. Maybe Elton Alexander is managing that website.

It was quick check so I could be wrong, but I went back and looked at the play-by-play. The Zips were in the red zone three times last weekend and scored TDs two times and a FG once. Their other scores were from outside of the red zone. I think another one was a 22 yard run and the other was a long pass.

In the Pitt game, they were in the red zone three times. They had an INT and two running TDs. Their third TD was a play from outside of the red zone.

EDIT: The reason I don't look at the whole season is there are too few opportunities to make whatever the stats may be statistically relevant. With so few tries, it is easy to move the success ratio down with less than a handful of tries (sort of like worrying about the batting champion batting .063 after five games). One blow out loss against Marshall on a day when nothing seems to go right and some missed chip shot field goals (this problem seems to be solved as well) can quickly drive down the stat. If this statistic was truly relevant at this point in the season, the Zips would be 1-4. The Zips have more of a third down problem than a red zone problem at this point in the season. I anticipate continued improvement throughout the season.