The Captain's 2007 Season Overview

[Captain Kangaroo]

Why the Zips Will Win the MAC East"The Zips win the MAC East? Are you nuts? The Zips will be lucky to break .500 this year. They lost to much talent. They're too unproven." That's the response I'd expect from the vast majority of those who follow Zips football.I'll disagree. Here's why:A Parallel WorldTo find a parallel to the 2006 Zips football season, one only needs to look as far as the 2006 Cleveland Indians. Hang with me here…Like the Zips of 2005, the 2005 Cleveland Indians were a young, hungry bunch of kids that no one really expected much from. Unbelievably, by the end of the season they were competing for a division championship. On Opening Day 2006, expectations were justifiably for both teams in their respective sports. And both fell flat on their face. They had no idea what is was like to play as a "favorite," and laid a massive egg. Learning from 2006, the 2007 Tribe …with essentially the same roster as 2006...has grown into a real contender. The same will happen with the 2007 Zips football team.While the 2006 Zips team underperformed, the individual players weren't terrible. The coaches weren't terrible. For a culmination of reasons…underestimating impact of lost senior leadership…getting the "best shot" from opponents who had previously taken the Zips lightly…injuries…luck...things just didn't "click." I think was all addressed in the off-season (except, of course, for "luck").Starting at Quarterback - A Battle?!Only once in the past decade have the Zips had a legitimate QB battle. Butchie Washington had a solid grip on his job for 3 years. Charlie Frye -- He was beaten out by Nick Sparks, but Nick's turf toe in game #1 removed any competition Frye would see for the following 3.95 seasons. And aside from a few token practices alongside Jabari, Luke had the QB position to himself for two years. QB Experience - Far from GreenThe QB, or QB's (…don't rule out a Tebow/Leak scenario for the Zips) that emerge this fall will be inexperienced, but they are all highly skilled and practice-seasoned. Carlton Jackson was a tremendous HS star in Florida -- a Rivals Top 50 player on the national scene who spurned Michigan State to attend Akron. Although he's only taken a handful of snaps, he's been through two spring drills and this will be his third summer camp in Akron. I read about his alleged bad attitude, but kids with bad attitudes are typically gone by the time their third year rolls around. If he's now enrolled for his 5th semester, with no eligibility issues, I think that speaks for his dedication to playing football for the Zips. The only scenario where I could see Jackson leaving the program is if he was so ticked off at losing the QB battle that he transferred to Tennessee State, who also offered him a scholarship to play QB (MSU wanted him as a safety). He wouldn't need to sit out if he went 1-AA. Again, I don't see that playing-out. Sean Hakes won back-to-back Texas state high school championships, garnering MVP in the latter game. He graduated high school a semester early so he could get a jump in preparing to be the Zips QB. He wants the job badly. Athletically he's as elusive as Jackson -- capable of making plays with both his arms and feet. And he's bulked up to around 215lbs. Chris Jacquemain would surprise me if he emerged as the starter. He's a solid-enough player, but we need a playmaker at QB, and I think this CJ, style-wise, is more along the lines of Luke. If he doesn't get the job, I think he's got the size and skills to move to WR…if he wanted to do so. Should he lose the derby and not want to switch positions…looking at all the young QBs on the Zips roster...it wouldn't be a shocker if Jacquemain decided to transfer to a lower division to play QB. Jordan Miller and Matt Rogers will be in the fold next season…and maybe another QB too. 5-6 QB's is a bit much for the Zips.Regardless of who takes the first snap of the 2007 season, the top back up(s) won't be relegated to a ball cap and clip board. They'll all see appreciable time. Unknown Doesn't Mean "Bad"OK - They're still a bunch of unknown commodities right? True…but so was Frye. And likewise was Butchie. Unknown doesn't automatically translate to "bad." In this instance, with the talent level so high, and the competition so fierce, I think it will fast-track our QB position to a pretty high level. This isn't like Frye's era, when an injury to Charlie meant Jonathan Gill or Michah Fahler behind center. Depth/talent + competition typically translates to good things at the QB position. It will be interesting to see how JD manages the situation. Practice Makes PerfectAnother aspect of the QB situation that will assist in expediting our QB's growth will be the practice intensity vs. our #1 defense. Overlooked in 2006 was some pretty stellar defensive play. Lack of a dominate pass rush was disappointing, and hurt us severely against mobile QB's like LaFevour and Edelman. But overall our defense was very good. Hakes/Jackson/Jacquemain will be throwing against the top LB's and DB's the MAC has to offer during practices this summer/fall. That makes the weekly game days vs. Buffalo/Temple/K.e.n.t much less daunting.The Loose Cannon FactorMore likely than not, the QB that emerges as the starter at Cleveland Browns Stadium this year will be the one that makes the fewest mistakes during August practices. This year's offense will be more run-oriented…more TE tosses (a big strength this season) and much less "wing-it-down-the-field-and-let-David Harvey (now Vince Hill)-run-underneath-it." OU won 9 games last season with a QB that would be 4th on our depth chart. And our 2007 defense will be better than OU's 2006 group. That should add up to a very successful season.Where's the Beef? Will the offensive line give any of these guys time to throw? Based upon history, I'd say "yes." Tim Crouch is gone. God love him…nice kid and a true student athlete. But he was abused on a weekly basis last year. Crouch's "open door policy" reduced Getsy to a gun-shy wreck by mid-season last year.As a unit, the incoming OL crew is unproven, but with a decent mix of experience and great HS accolades. The addition of Estrada helps immediately, and the other new guys are redshirts with a lot of side-by-side practice time under their belts. Wills and Alleman will be missed, but overall I think we'll be in better shape in the trenches in 2007. Kemme is legit all-MAC and Shepp is solid too. Holley hasn't played much to-date, but is a 5th year senior. Mike Ward is a tough kid too.Harvey and Lindsay are Gone - Boo Hoo HooMany Zips fans continue to wring their collective hands regarding the WR situation. I don't get it. When we lost Jake Schifno and Lavel Bailey, you heard the same thing…and Cherry, Irvin and Sparks emerged. Then we lost Cherry, Irvin and Sparks and everyone fretted…and Montgomery and Hixson capably filled in. We lost Motgomery and Hixson…and Harvey, Lindsay and Jabari stepped up. I learned in Physics class that nature abhors a vacuum. The same is true for the Zips WR position. With Harvey and Lindsay gone, the door is again open for the next generation of Zips wide receivers to step up. Jabari is poised to have a solid senior season. What MAC corner can match up with a 6' 4', 225lb WR? Alphonso Owen continues to draw raves. And Vince Hill has all the promise of Harvey, but with none of the baggage. If Al Groh fought tooth and nail to poach Vince for Akron, you know the kid is special. And UVA has very stringent academic standards…if Groh fought so hard to keep him, he certainly felt Vince could handle the academics too.Every year people fret over lost talent. And every year someone new seems to step in and get the job done. I wish Harvey would have gotten his act together, but "Wish in one hand, "K.e.n.t." in the other, and see which one fills up first." We won a MAC title without David Harvey, and so has every other MAC champ since the dawn of the conference. It can be done.The Running BacksDennis Kennedy is back, and allegedly healthy. We'll see what that translates to on the field. After two seasons I'm still leery that DK has the big-strike capability we need at the position. Unlike 2006 however, we should have some real depth at the position should he falter. Andre Walker is a serviceable back. Despite not playing RB since high school, he did a nice job in spot duty in 2006. He'll hit the holes a lot quicker now that he's got a season's worth of collegiate backfield experience under his belt. A name that continues to pop up in the RB mix is Alex Allen. Thanks to his own hard work, the knee he injured last summer appears to be rock-solid. He's expected to be near 100% for the season opener….maybe even better/stronger than before.A wild card is Bryan Williams. A very strong, very fast runner. He will be on the field somewhere in 2007. Still tough to tell if it will be RB or DB, but I'm guessing RB.The elusive true Freshman scat back Gary Pride is going to see some snaps this year too. And if Aaris Reed, a top 100 HS RB nationally in 2005, can get his act together it could be a banner rushing year for the Zips. The deep, talented 2007 Zips rushing attack will be far from the unspectacular dud we all witnessed in 2006. And that will take a lot of heat off our new QB's.The Schedule: "Cupcake City, BAY-BEE!"Another reason the Zips will be fine at the QB position in 2007 is the schedule. Joey Chestnut would only make it half way through our pile of cupcakes before surrendering to a bloated abdomen. The only 95% probable loss is the OSU game. And even then, OSU will be breaking in a new QB against the best linebacking corp and secondary in the MAC. If Beanie Wells pulls a hammy in the first quarter, look for Buckeye fans to be sweating well into the 4th quarter.Army is a terrible football team. They will be well-disciplined, methodical and strong. But the Zips athleticism should easily overcome it. I can't see JD losing to Army twice.Indiana - They're horrible. They had a "successful" (by their standards) Big 10 season in 2006, going 3-5. The previous three years they went 1-7. That said - a horrible team by Big10 standards still has the horses to be a Top 4 MAC team. I tend to think Indiana will win our game based upon how the beat CMU @ Mount Pleasant in 2006. They went on the road against one of the MAC's better teams and won. But it is certainly a game the Zips can win. And with Indiana's horrific defense, there should be points-a-plenty.We will not lose to a sorry K.e.n.t. team two years in a row. Once word spread that K.e.n.t. was mediocre last season, good ol' K.e.n.t. reverted back to their decades-old losing ways. Look for a big-time beatdown at the Rubber Bowl this fall. BTW -- The K.e.n.t. game will sell out. 25k guaranteed. That's a minimum 55k for the first two games. Not too shabby.UCONN - UCONN is terrible. They were 5-6 in 2005. They were 4-8 in 2006. They'll be bad again this year. In general, MAC teams win games like this -- We beat NC State last year. WMU beat Virginia. OU beat Illinois. When a decent MAC school, with a good defense and solid coaching staff plays a BCS doormat it bodes well for the MAC school. I will visit Storrs this fall to see the both the autumn leaves and coach Randy Edsall's face simultaneously turn red. Prepare another BCS "scalp" for the Zips belt.Western Michigan @ Kalamazoo -- Tough to expect the Zips to pull this one out. WMU is solid. Temple -- Cup cake.Buffalo -- Joey Chestnut gets some Hot Wings to go with his cupcakes. The Bulls always give us a tough game in Buffalo…and somehow we always win. I saw Turner Gill coach at the Rubber Bowl last year. Bizarre stuff. No way a clown like him beats the Zips.Bowling Green -- Urban Meyer's departure has led to Urban Decay. The young Zips begin hitting their stride here and easily handle the Falcons.OU -- Home team seems to win this annual match up, and the Zips are at home. The Bong Cats are going to come back to earth hard this year, BTW. No back-to-back 9-win seasons. Solich will be hitting the bottle hard again this fall.Miami -- Continuing a trend that started with Rothlisberger's departure for Pittsburgh, the once proud Red Hawks will dig themselves ever deeper into the MAC East basement. They are a bad football team, and their coach is headed along the post-MAC career path of Lee Owens, not that of his predecessors Randy Walker and Terry Hoeppner.CMU -- A tough game, but something should be on the line for both teams here. Edge to the home Zips in this 11am tilt as CMU completes the first year of breaking in their new coach.That puts the Zips and their new QB(s) @ 9-3…8-4 worst case. In the sorry MAC East, that will be good for a Championship berth in Detroit...assuming we find a reliable kicker.

[mrelegazna]

This is a good, reasonable analysis. I'm hopeful for the season. It's a tad on the glass-half full side - every team can say, "Unknown doesn't mean bad" and that there new starters are "practice seasoned," and every kid recruited into the MAC has a pretty good pedigree/resume. BUT, since we have been ranked #1 or #2 in recruiting in the MAC in a few publications the last couple years, maybe that those rankings will prove to be accurate and the new will be as good as/better than the old.

[MRasor0200]

Nice job, CK. I hope you're right.LOL @ Crouch's "open-door policy."

[timmyboy]

I pretty much agree with each thing you said cap. I wouldnt be suprised to see gary pride returning some kick offs and punts this year. He is a fast back who twists, turns, spins, an dives to get into the endzone........... just what we need in a football player and has anyone heard any information about their annual Meet the Zips event that they have? Usually it is the last week in august, but it has been earlier then that a few times i think.

[UAZipster0305]

So who do you have us playing in the MACC and in a bowl game?...How will we fare in these events?

[ZachTheZip]

This is a make-or-break year for Zips football. The team is almost completely made up of JD's recruits. The Zips first true QB battle in recent memory is taking place. The predictions range anywhere from 5th to 1st in the MAC east, meaning that we are a dark horse team. The academic problems are (hopefully) behind us. The talent pool is so deep at most positions that we should never get worn out during the course of the games. What does it all mean?It means that it is essentially do or die for the Zips this season. No one knows what to expect for this season, which means it can go any number of ways. We could blow the season and cause unrest with the coaching staff. We could be completely average and show the local sports fans that 2005 was just a fluke. Or, we could end up going anywhere from 8-4 to 10-2 given our very easy schedule. That would be incredible, we would go bowling, the community would rally around us once again, and all is well in Zippyland. We all hope it is the last option that comes true. Anything less and the season would be a dissapointment. But there's nothing we can do about it except go to the games and cheer our team on to victory. The talent is there, so it's entirely up to how bad JD and the players want to win. Lets hope they want it more badly than anyone else does.

[GP1]

Joey Chestnut would only make it half way through our pile of cupcakes before surrendering to a bloated abdomen.

Or having a "Reversal of Fortune".Good post. I feel good about this upcoming season as well. Folks worry about losing players, but they forget that every four years there is an entire new set of characters.Until I see evidence that the 3-3-5 defense can produce some three & outs and get pressure on the QB, I'll go with seven wins. A solid season in this day and age.

[Big Zip]

CK I always enjoy reading your posts, but you can't be serious that everything is going to go right. Your post presupposes all the dominoes fall the way of the Zips -- they rarely fall our way even once and now they are all going to come together?Here's to hoping your vision for the perfect storm comes to fruition. Do us all a favor and post this on the front page of the nation so we can keep score of your predictions through the season. It's about time that page was changed.

[InTheZone]

I hope you're right CK, I really do, but I can't agree with you here. The '07 Zips are going to be too green, and are going to be BAD where it counts the most... the offensive and defensive lines. Great running backs don't make a difference when they're getting hit two yards in the backfield. Young quarterbacks can't develop when they don't have time to throw (see the Cleveland Browns). Great linebackers can't make tackles when a running back has holes five yards wide, and even a great secondary can't cover for the ten seconds opposing QB's are going to have to throw the ball (do Cecchetti, Lively, or Pendleton really scream pass rush to anybody???). I also don't think Carlton Jackson, despite all the talent in the world, has the leadership qualities of a great quarterback that carries his team when times get rough.... and inevitably times are going to get rough. I had a great feeling going into '05 and predicted a MAC title before the season. This year, I don't have a good feeling. In fact, I have a very bad feeling. I've been around and on great football teams, and looking at this team I just don't see greatness. JD's recruiting gambles, especially up front, have not paid off and I really think it's going to bite us in the ass. Thank God JD got rid of many of the discipline problems in the offseason, because that is one thing that would completely sink this ship. As is, call me a pessimist, but I say we'll be lucky to win 4 games. I dearly hope that I'm wrong.

[Z.I.P.]

Damn, Cap'n. I thought I was an optimist, but you take the cake! My prognostication:A 7-4 season will get us into the MACC -- IF we beat OU in the Rubber Bowl. Easiest prediction that so many "experts" can't figure out: Bowling Green and Miami will not win 10 games between them. Nonetheless, I expect the Bimmer Nation to win in Oxford... AGAIN. That could be our sole loss in the East though. We can't afford to lose more than one.And I won't be surprised to see both IU and UConn in bowl games this year -- look for at least one of them to do so. UA Postseason: Loss to South Florida in International Bowl. We pick Toronto over Mobile (wouldn't you?).

[skip-zip]

This is certainly an "everything must fall into place" assessment. And we all know that things don't work out that way very often.I agree that our defense has great potential. And we'll need to hold several opponents to 14 points or less to win some of these games.Which brings me to the offense. We scored a TOTAL of 7 points in our last TWO games last year. Our running game deteriorated, and our QB was pressured relentlessly. If you think that problem will correct itself anytime soon with several new, inexperienced offensive linemen, you're really the eternal optimist. It's still hard for me to see this as anything other than a rebuilding year with better results coming again in 2008.On a more positive note, anything can happen in the MAC, and usually does. So, at least we have that going for us. Which is nice. Oh..and I do agree...we will NOT lose to Can't State at home.

[Captain Kangaroo]

CK I always enjoy reading your posts, but you can't be serious that everything is going to go right.  Your post presupposes all the dominoes fall the way of the Zips -- they rarely fall our way even once and now they are all going to come together?Here's to hoping your vision for the perfect storm comes to fruition.  Do us all a favor and post this on the front page of the nation so we can keep score of your predictions through the season. It's about time that page was changed.

I placed the post on the front page. Good call...the basketball one was pretty tired.If we go 8-4 this season it doesn't necessarily mean we're all that great a football team. In the grand scheme of D1 football, I think we'll be average-to-slightly-above. But with our schedule, and playing in the MAC East, 8 wins should be pretty attainable.I keep going back to the 2006 OU team. A total pile of crap and yet they won 9 games! Our schedule is just as favorable in 2007 as their's was in 2006. And I think we're a slightly better team.

[Dr Z]

This is certainly an "everything must fall into place" assessment.

You'll find that many teams that "win", have things "fall in place" for them in a season.Take a look at our MAC championship year.

[scottditzen]

Great positive analysis!!!!!!!!

[zipboy]

Good post,Doing the little things this year right will make a big difference. How many times did we jump offside, or drop a pass, or miss a coverage at crucial times last year? Eliminate some of those mental mistakes, and you get a couple more wins.I also hope we show more consistency this year. No more Army, Ball State games like the past couple of years.

[skip-zip]

Dr. Z....you are correct. Things do sometimes fall into place, as was the case for us in 2005.On the other hand, sometimes thing totally do not go your way, and you end up losing more games that you should have.This is why you can't assume that every bounce will go a certain team's way when analyzing their projected outcome for the coming season. If we make that assumption, then virtually every team in the MAC can make a legitimate argument that they will win the title.

[RACER]

i just dont see 8 wins on our schedule.new qb,and three new starters on the o-line.while i think our defense could be one of the better ones at akron our kicking game is terrible.our offense was bad last year,and we lost our best wr.i think this teams can go 6-6 best case 7-5.i think well go 1-3 in occ but have a good chance to win alott of mac games.the zips need to win against army.a loss in the first game followed by osu could send the team in a downward spiral.

[Zip Watcher]

And Vince Hill has all the promise of Harvey, but with none of the baggage. If Al Groh fought tooth and nail to poach Vince for Akron, you know the kid is special. And UVA has very stringent academic standards…if Groh fought so hard to keep him, he certainly felt Vince could handle the academics too.

Ooops!

[Captain Kangaroo]

And Vince Hill has all the promise of Harvey, but with none of the baggage. If Al Groh fought tooth and nail to poach Vince for Akron, you know the kid is special. And UVA has very stringent academic standards…if Groh fought so hard to keep him, he certainly felt Vince could handle the academics too.

Ooops!

I wonder if it is too late to cancel my "Hill #2" jersey order from athlete-tech.com? Me and David Lee Morgan...two peas in a pod...