I think the record is more reflective of 'how' they have played, not 'who' they have played. Ark St., Princeton, had late leads and should have won them both.
Perhaps a few more of those type of games make for a better team, but worse non-con record. Zips can go 13-5 in the MAC and I'm not sure they would be any better in March than they are now. That's how bad the MAC is.
Zips could also go .500 in the MAC, based on what we see right now, and wouldn't be totally surprised. Disappointed, but not surprised. Non-con schedule showed they can beat bad teams, play with some good teams ... but not sure about winning against good teams.