Dave in Green

Offensive and defensive efficiency are both good stats to consider, because they give a reasonable picture of how the teams have performed on average over the course of the season. But no statistic tells the whole story. For example, MSU has the worst combined offensive and defensive efficiency season average of the 4 teams left standing. But Tom Izzo's MSU teams are notorious for underperforming at times during the season, which lowers their average efficiency ratings, and then peaking at NCAA tournament time. This is MSU's 6th final 4 in the last 12 years, more than any other team. I've seen no reliable stat to measure the ability of some coaches and teams to peak at the right time and perform at a level beyond their season offensive and defensive efficiency averages once the NCAA tournament begins.

We know for sure that 3 new forwards are signed and expected to show up next season -- Josh Egner, Dakotah Euton and Mike Green. We know that with no player movement, the Zips had only 2 scholarships to give. It was expected that one of the scholarship players from this year would leave to open up the additional required scholarship. Now KD has stated that another guard will be coming in, which means that 2 scholarships need to be opened up. Let's look at all the names of this season's players who did not graduate, and would be eligible to return next season, separated into frontcourt and backcourt (* = scholarship). FRONTCOURT 1. Bardo* 2. Cvetinovic* 3. McKnight* 4. Marshall* 5. Swiech* 6. Oldham BACKCOURT 1. Hitchens* 2. McClanahan* 3. McNees* 4. Roberts* 5. Steward* 6. Sullivan* 7. Petersen Now if this rumor of 3 backcourt players possibly leaving the program is true, that would leave the Zips with only 4 returning guards and 1 new incoming guard announced by KD. I would say that 5 guards is not enough backcourt depth. All it would take is a Steward-type season-ending injury to leave the Zips in big guard trouble. So you'd have to expect at least 2 new guards to be signed if 3 leave. If just 1 frontcourt scholarship player leaves along with the 2 senior scholarship forwards who graduated, that would neatly cover the 3 incoming scholarship forwards.

How many of the following coaches are not well known for advocating "defense first?" 1. Bob Huggins 2. Tom Izzo 3. Mike Krzyzewski 4. Brad Stevens

Really? That's "the DiG strategy" now? I'm the best example you can cite for doing that on ZN.O? Amazing. Haha, I'm sure it's not exclusive to you (I'm sure I've done it myself in fact)... just the most recent example of someone arguing the same point. Thanks for the reprieve. Most of my posts on ZN.O have been in agreement with what most of your posts support -- that the larger the statistical sample, the more reliable the assumptions that can be drawn from a body of data. For every single game cited to "prove" one thing, there are always other games that can be cited to "prove" exactly the opposite.

Really? That's "the DiG strategy" now? I'm the best example you can cite for doing that on ZN.O? Amazing.

For those of you who saw Egner for the first time, who does he remind you of? I mentioned in one post that the intensity in his eyes and face reminded me a little of Psycho T -- Tyler Hansbrough. Obviously Egner is a little smaller and has a ways to go to reach Psycho T's skill level. But just looking at the intensity level, I see similarities. The way Egner roams from the perimeter to the paint on D, like some kind of predator coiled and waiting to strike, reminds me a little of Nate Linhart. Egner sure looks like he could fill the role that Linhart played, guarding the other team's best offensive player, big or small. Egner is definitely a floor burn player, always going after loose balls, steals and rebounds. The thing that sets Egner apart from Linhart is his great leaping ability -- 37" vertical jump according to the Canton Repository. From what I saw at the two games at the JAR, Egner can get above the rim at roughly the same level as former Zip Quade Milum. For those who may not remember Milum, he was a skinny 6-7 forward who cleared 7 feet in the high jump in 2004 while in HS. Anyone else have any thoughts on player comparisons?

All the discussion pegs Harris as more of a shooting guard than a point guard.

The real question is, what were you originally drinking?

Final score, 57-34. And it wasn't really that close. For those who haven't seen Jackson play before, tonight was the A option where the offense revolves around Henniger. The two previous games that got Jackson here were the B option, where Egner takes over at both ends. The main point to me about Egner is that he's a team player who's willing to do whatever is necessary for his team to win. He's always active at the defensive end, and is willing to sacrifice his offensive game to the A option -- Henniger. But he can also take over at the offensive end if required. "Whatever it takes" is the way I would describe Egner. Egner is capable of doing whatever he's called on to do. Now it's up to KD to take advantage of an important new piece in the Zips team and use him to the team's best advantage.

Amazing quarter, with Jackson outscoring Moeller 24-5 for a 44-20 lead going into the final quarter. Egner finally hits a bucket, and then follows with one of his patented slams. He has definitely controlled the defensive end. Jackson peaked at the right time, and may be one of the top few HS basketball teams in the country right now.

Wow. Jackson opens the second half with a 12-0 run, and leads 32-15 halfway through the third quarter.

Halftime score is 20-15 Jackson. Those watching the game have gotten a good look at the nice, soft shooting touch of Mark Henniger. You can see why Can't signed him. He is smooth and consistent, while Egner is the wild card. Egner has been altering shots on the defensive end and then controlling the rebounds.

Egner's shooting was a bit off in the first quarter, but how about those two blocks? The first one on the 6-9 Xavier recruit was good. But that second block near the end of the quarter was about as athletic as anything I've seen in the NCAA tournament.

I said the same thing about Egner in the basketball recruiting forum after the first time I saw him play. I hope that many of you who haven't seen Egner will have a chance to watch the game on STO tonight and share your opinions here.

This is nothing but wild speculation. But since KD is now talking about another guard coming in next year, and most of the highly rated guards are already committed, how about this unlikely scenario: Dakotah Euton's highly rated HS teammate, 6-4 shooting guard Ge-Lawn Guyn, committed to and then decommitted from Charlotte. Would he want to continue playing with Euton in college? Odds are way against it, as Guyn is talking to such teams as Indiana, Louisville, Xavier, Cincinnati, Texas, Alabama, Nebraska, Florida, Georgia Tech, Wisconsin and Mississippi State. But why not dream a little. Guyn is given 3 stars by Scout.com and ranked the 44th best shooting guard in the class of 2010. Scott County standout Dakotah Euton has signed with Akron and Chad Jackson has given a verbal commitment to James Madison. So what about Ge-Lawn Guyn? Louisville Courier-Journal Link

And more good stories: ''He has always had a lot of energy,'' (coach) Fuline said of Egner. ''He was not polished as an eight-grader and ninth-grader, but he has worked so hard and he believes in himself. He has built a sense in his mind that you are not going to stop him.'' Ohio.com Link Jackson, who had to overcome 23 turnovers, got a monstrous game from 6-foot-6 Josh Egner. The senior was ferocious from start to finish. Egner was able to finish up, over, and through the smaller Lions line up. He played with fire and intensity not rivaled by anyone on the court. The Akron signee finished with 23 points, 11 rebounds, and four blocks along with several dunks that sent the raucous crowd into a frenzy. The play of the game, which can be argued, seemed to be a play seen on an And-1 mix tape. Jackson senior Brad Dupont stole a Gahanna pass and raced down the floor for what looked to be a layup opportunity. However, as a Lion defender drew closer Dupont realized his shot may be blocked and decided to toss the ball off the backboard to a trailing Egner. The big man obliged catching the pass off the board and slamming it home with a violent two-handed dunk. Momentum was won at that point. Ohio HS Scoops Link The 6-foot-7 University of Akron recruit finished with 23 points on 9-of-12 shooting, 11 rebounds and four blocks. Whether it was a massive jam, a swat of a potential Gahanna layup or a tough rebound in traffic, he was there. “The guy to my left,” Jackson coach Mike Fuline said, sitting next to Egner during the postgame, “when he comes to play it’s over.” Gahanna was just 7-of-21 from the 3-point line and 7-of-16 from the foul line. When driving in the lane, the Lions seemed bothered by Jackson’s length, especially Egner. “You could see them out of the corner of their eyes looking for him,” Fuline said. “And that’s when I kind of knew, ‘OK, he’s got them.’ ” Canton Rep Link Can’t stop that Jackson senior Josh Egner provided the stats of the day — three second-half slams on Gahanna, part of his game-high 23 points to go with 11 rebounds. That was noteworthy, because Gahanna sagged all over the leaping 6-7 senior with trademark mohawk haircut. Dayton Daily News Link And finally, the photo that I thought should be posterized was picked up by the AP and appeared on sites as far away as the Connecticut Post. Connecticut Post Link

More good photos in the Columbus Dispatch. Be sure to watch the slideshow in full screen, and pay close attention to # 8, 11 and 12. I've yet to see a photo of Egner in action where his body is not in an extremely extended position and there isn't a look of total intensity on his face. I think I said here after the first time I saw him play that this is one intense dude. Columbus Dispatch Link

The STO broadcast tonight is supposed to be in high def. I want to see one of those Egner monster dunks on the big screen in high def! More discussion on Egner's performance in the basketball recruiting forum here: Egner Recruiting Thread

They've added photos, so the numbers I cited earlier have changed. Now that there are 69 photos posted, the good Egner shots are: # 11, 12. 19, 20, 24, 25, 26, 33. 35, 36, 38, 39, 42, 43, 44, 45, 48, 49, 50, 52 and 53. And # 19 is the one I see as a big poster: Stay Away From My Basket. Canton Rep Link

And then there are the photos. I highly recommend the following Egner personality photos: # 5, 9, 10, 14, 16 & 17. The last one is best. Photo #17 should be blown up to LeBron billboard size and posted somewhere on the UA campus. Canton Rep Link Photo comments and link updated in post # 26 below.

Awesome stuff in the preliminary stories: Jackson leads 41-32 after three quarters Senior forward Josh Egner has taken over the game. He has 17 points, six rebounds and three blocks. Egner had two tremendous two-hand dunks in the third quarter, both of which senior guard Brad DuPont assisted on. DuPont lobbed the ball off the backboard on the first dunk during a fast break and Egner jammed it home. Egner followed that up a few possessions later with another emphatic dunk over a Lincoln defender. Ohio.com Link The start of the third quarter proved to be the difference in the game as Jackson jetted to a 37-24 lead with a run ending on a three-point play by Egner. Egner electrified the crowd with a two-handed dunk that raised the lead to 41-27 with 1:32 left in the quarter. Each time the Lions would cut into the lead, Egner answered with an exclamation point. With 1:47 left, he had yet another dunk off the fast break to make it 58-46. Columbus Dispatch Link

Egner might be able to give Zeke some advice on how to put on weight: During Thursday night’s team dinner at Eddie George’s Grill, Jackson players ate well, and a lot. The Bears were smart about ordering. The Ohio High School Athletic Association reimburses each school $15 for meals per day. Jackson players ordered meals in the $10 range and then split deserts. But senior 6-foot-7 post player Josh Egner ordered a one-pound piece of carrot cake. It looked like a cinder block. Egner put most of the cake away, too. Canton Rep Link

Sounds like Egner replicated his huge quarter-final game performance at the JAR. Big game performers are rare. If he does it again tomorrow night for all the marbles, expectations are going to reach Zeke-like proportions among Zips fans.

In reference to players leaving, I think that Bardo's name has also come up in other threads. Although he has another year of eligibility, my understanding is that he is already doing post-graduate studies. Don't know what his future plans are, but they probably don't include basketball at the next level. Does he plan to still be in school all of next season, and is he willing to put in all the work required to play just a few minutes a game as Zeke's backup? This is all pure speculation. But it's another possibility for opening up one of the two extra scholarships required to take care of the 3 incoming forwards and 1 guard with only 2 scholarship players known to be departing (Conyers and C. McKnight).

The picture is actually pretty small and simple: It was the subject of a lot of conversation two years ago...but it isn't any longer. Why? Because the change has proven to be irrelevant. A two year sampling of hundred of teams and thousands of games has proven -- the 12" 3-point line change has done nothing to widen the gap between the "haves" and the "have nots". What's that GP1 line? Something like "...you want it to be one way, but it's the other." What you say may or may not be true. But it's still not clear if your personal conclusion is the result of studying specific data or just a casual assumption. If you could point me to the source of your data sampling, I'll gladly agree with you if what you've based your conclusion on is as compelling to me as it obviously has been to you. After two full days of not seeing a response to this simple question, I'm left to assume that the poster either will not or cannot point us to a source of the data sampling backing the stated opinion. In the absence of good data, I will consider that post as unsubstantiated opinion and not factually based. Nothing at all wrong with that, as we all have our share of unsubstantiated opinions. Some of us just do a better job of separating our unsubstantiated opinions from statements of fact. For example, the original statement that started all of this was prefaced "I think" non-major schools were hurt by this rule change and not "This is absolute fact." To summarize, there is some logic that a major rule change like the distance of the 3-point arc would affect different teams differently, and that "have" or major teams are typically different from "have-not" or non-major teams. There would tend to be less difference between a lower-level major and a higher-level non-major. There is also some evidence to support and some to contradict that the 3-point arc distance change may have changed the relative 3-point shooting performance balance between major and non-major teams. But all the evidence presented so far is inconclusive. There has been little evidence presented about the overall results of spreading the offense and defense with the larger arc. With logic tending to support at least some difference, but evidence presented to date inconclusive, my own current opinion is that there is probably more than a 50-50 chance that there was at least a small effect on the balance between majors and non-majors. Pending the presentation of more pertinent data, I tend to believe that any change would have been relatively small. Statistically speaking, you can get good results answering a simple question about half of the time by just flipping a coin. It takes a lot of hard work and analysis to push the 50-50 chance of a coin flip up higher in the range of certainty.