Dave in Green

Lordy, lordy. Just when I thought I had caught up with all of the misrepresentations of my position on various subjects posted on ZN.O, I stumble back across this thread that I'd lost track of. I'll tell you, if I believed all the exaggerations the good Captain made about me, I'd really get to hatin' on myself. For historical purposes, here are a few of many items that CK has overlooked in making the above comment: Etc., etc.

Haven't seen anything about whether this is open or closed to the public. Seems odd to pick a place that seats more than 5,000, and then have it closed to the public.

Back to the subject of this thread, after much serious study (I also have swamp land in Florida for sale), I've determined that the correct option is not available in this poll. What will happen is that Ianello will be driven away from UA before the end of his first season. Here's the way I see it playing out. After winning a few games, it will be revealed in ABJ and PD interviews that Ianello credits the team's quick start with the revelation that he has made advanced statistical analysis a key to gaining a competitive edge over other teams. This causes Dr Z and Captain Kangaroo to go apoplectic and issue a public statement that this was the first UA sports news ever that the ABJ and PD did not steal directly from ZN.O. Together, the two moderators use ZN.O as a platform to rail against the use of any statistical analysis by the Zips football team, demand that Ianello be subject to an inquisition in the deepest, darkest dungeon on the UA campus, and that he be forced to publicly recant from this heresy. The noted researcher, speculator, and purveyor of all matters related to both real and imagined sexual, religious, and racial peccadilloes -- GP1 -- digs up dirt on Ianello's European ancestors from the 5th century AD, and privately feeds it to Dr Z and Captain Kangaroo. They in turn e-mail a copy of this to Tom Wistrcill, demanding that Ianello be replaced with a coach who can't count high enough to state his age. But they accidentally address that e-mail to Ianello instead of Wistrcill. Ianello in turn fires off an angry e-mail to Wistrcill saying that this is exactly what he had told Wistrcill before taking the UA position -- his greatest fear was that "The unnofficial web home for Akron Zips fans" would not support him no matter how successful he was -- and that he wasn't sure he wanted to continue coaching a team where the online fan base was so relentlessly nasty and negative. But Ianello's e-mail to Wistrcill is accidentally addressed to Dr Z and Captain Kangaroo, instead. They immediately post Ianello's e-mail on ZN.O and say that this is proof that Ianello is somehow related to the scoundrel Dave in Green, who also stands accused of relentlessly accusing ZN.O of being nasty and negative, and, even worse, advocating the use of voodoo statistical analysis. After the ABJ and PD return to their normal behavior and steal ZN.O's scoop on Ianello, the embattled UA coach holds a public press conference. He likens Akron to Salem, Massachusetts, in 1692, and warns the world that witch trials are still with us even in our modern 21st century world. He says he doesn't know where he's going, but wherever he went he was going to replace the zippers in all of his clothing with buttons. Can't State sees this as a tremendous opportunity to get a winning football coach who sees Akron in the same light as they do. They offer him a lifetime contract, name their math department after him, and invest in making it the leading school of statistical analysis in the country. Can't State football immediately takes off and begins beating every team they play, including a national record thrashing of UA after UA's statistically challenged interim coaching staff puts only five players on the field, later explaining that their contracts with UA stipulated that they not be allowed to count beyond the number of digits on one hand. Can't goes on to be invited to join the Big Ten, and wins the national championship. Coaches come from across the country to study Ianello's unprecedented use of statistical analysis in areas of the game where it had never before been used. In response, Dr Z and Captain Kangaroo jigger the ZN.O software so that the forums will not display the letters I, A, N, E, L or O, or any numbers, claiming that if even a single "1" should show up on the forum, it would be the first step toward subverting ZN.O into a carrier of hidden statistical analysis propaganda. UA finally gives up on trying to please its football fans as a lost cause, converts the new football stadium into the country's finest dedicated soccer stadium, and diverts the football budget into basketball. With no more UA football to kick around, Dr Z and Captain Kangaroo move to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, lured by this lurid description that recently captured their fancy on ZN.O: Finally, the most important (and most popular) development that follows the resolution of all of UA's football, basketball, and soccer issues finds Dave in Green reducing his ZN.O participation to one short post per week, and using his newly found free time to return to doing that which he does best:

To get help for a software program on ZN.O, I'd start a separate thread in the off topic forum, and give more details on the problem. But SAS has a great customer support site with a forum that would likely give you a quicker solution to your problem: http://support.sas.com/

But if you ask anybody in statistics, they will admit that you can work the statistics to say anything you want them to. Stats are just a tool of measurement, like a measuring tape. A carpenter uses a measuring tape to measure a piece of wood before cutting. If the measuring tape is defective, the piece of wood ends up the wrong size. If the measurement is not properly read, the piece of wood ends up the wrong size. If the carpenter ignores the measuring tape and just wings it, the piece of wood ends up being the wrong size. There are lots of ways of getting something wrong. Those who profess to totally ignore stats because they know better are like a carpenter who refuses to measure before he cuts. Statistical systems may not be perfect. But properly interpreted, they beat the heck out of just winging it. Speaking of stats. I’m trying to get Proc phreg in SAS to generate z scores with no success. Any of you proficient in SAS? Do you have v9.2 or an earlier version?

Absolutely! Those who believe that statistical analysis plays no role in formulating winning game plans, and who are totally close-minded to any data that might suggest otherwise, should avoid this thread like the plague. There's nothing here that will be good for those folks' health and well-being, and it will only make them upset and angry over the perceived challenge to their fundamental belief systems. This thread was started for the purpose of providing an example of how one winning NFL coach and team put a high priority on statistical analysis in helping give them an edge over teams that don't. It's intended to provide data to those who are curious and open-minded about learning new things. In the basketball forum, the best example cited was Brad Stevens, who coached his surprising mid-major Butler team all the way to this year's NCAA national basketball championship game. Like Bill Belichick in the NFL, Stevens is a leading practitioner of using statistical analysis to gain an edge over other teams. Statistical analysis is only one part of a successful sports program. There are many other better known factors, such as physical conditioning, etc. But so many coaches and teams have tried to optimize so many other factors that they're now looking beyond the obvious to find a competitive edge. Statistical analysis is just the newest and least known and understood factor. It's a subject that will be of more interest to nerds than jocks.

I knew Wood was good. But even after watching him play in so many games for the Zips, I didn't realize he was this good. Agreed that having Wood spend some time with Zeke in the off-season could produce huge dividends. I wouldn't leave it up to chance, either. Surely the basketball program has enough spare change in the budget to pay Wood at least a modest fee as a professional consultant. Seeing this reinforces my belief that the Zips need to find another Wood-type power forward for their 4th 2011 scholarship.

From the precise wording of the story, definitely at UA, probably at the JAR.

The clear proof that modern man and dinosaurs existed side-by-side can be found right here in these forums, where examples of recent posts from both groups can be found.

So which ones are statistical analysis-based, the apples or the oranges?

Right, Dr Z. And Butler's amazing run in this year's NCAA basketball tournament must have been based on some kind of cheating, with absolutely no connection to the fact that Brad Stevens is one of the leading practitioners of statistical analysis in college basketball coaching today. It's nice and sunny here in Ohio today. How's the weather in the State of Denial?

A previous discussion in the basketball forum crossed over into football when Dr Z brought up the subject of Bill Belichick's philosophy on statistical analysis. I just had an opportunity to delve into this a little deeper, and have posted my findings in that basketball thread. I thought there might be some Zips football fans here who don't read the basketball forum, and might be interested in how statistical analysis has been a cornerstone of Belichick's and the Patriots' great success, so I'm including a link below. I wonder how much of a statistical analysis guy Coach Ianello is, and how it might benefit the Zips football team? ZN.O Link

Hey, Dr Z, I finally had a chance to do a thorough analysis of Bill Belichick's true philosophy on statistical analysis. Turns out it differs significantly from your signature line. Fact is, Belichick is one of the leading proponents of statistical analysis in the NFL. The story goes all the way back to his 1970 chance meeting with Phillips Academy classmate Ernie Adams. Adams was a brilliant numbers nerd who happened to love football. Belichick and Adams formed a lasting and productive 40-year friendship and working relationship. Adams has been the behind-the-scenes numbers nerd behind Belichick's NFL success, and Belichick has become a true believer in and practitioner of the power of statistical analysis. Now, I don't for a minute think any of the following will have any effect on anyone who is so deeply wrapped up in the concept of old-fashioned, gut-level coaching decisions that their reflex to any mention of statistics is to sneer and mock the concept. But for the inquisitive and open-minded members of ZN.O, there is a lot of interesting reading to be found at the following links beyond the short quotes I've included below. From the book Management Secrets of the New England Patriots by James Lavin (Volume 2, Building a High-Performance Organization, pages 260-261): Wearing large glasses, surrounding himself with books, wearing out-of-fashion clothes, and burying himself in statistical analysis, Adams is certainly a nerd's nerd... which suits Belichick perfectly. Adams' grasp of football minutiae and statistics gives the Patriots a definite advantage, even if the the man and his process are shrouded in mystery. ..... Belichick and Adams were statistical pioneers, and empirical analysis is a continuing Patriots strength. Google Books Link From the Harvard Business Review on How Analytics Help Build this Champion: The Patriots also make extensive use of analytics for on-the-field decisions. They employ statistics, for example, to decide whether to punt or "go for it" on fourth down, whether to try for one point or two after a touchdown, and whether to throw out the yellow flag and challenge a referee's ruling. Both its coaches and players (particularly quarterback Tom Brady) are renowned for their extensive study of game video and statistics, and head coach Bill Belichick has been known to peruse articles by academic economists on statistical probabilities of football outcomes--over breakfast cereal, the legend goes. Off the field, the team uses detailed analytics to assess and improve the "total fan experience." At every home game, for example, twenty to twenty-five people have specific assignments to make quantitative measurements of the stadium food, parking, personnel, bathroom cleanliness, and other factors. The team prides itself not only on scoring the most points ever this season, but also on having the lowest wait time for women's restrooms in the NFL. External vendors of services are monitored for contract renewal and have incentives to improve their performance. This won't help them win the Super Bowl, but it helps fill Gillette Stadium every home game. Belichick deserves a lot of credit for the analytical emphasis (God knows, he can't get by on charm), but so do the team's owners. Harvard Business Review Link From the New York Times Magazine on Sabermetrics for Football: Belichick is known for his unorthodox strategies: being more willing than most to not punt on fourth down; running the ball far more than average in certain crucial situations; and eschewing two-point-conversion attempts in situations when orthodox doctrine recommends them. Not coincidentally, experts in the world of football statistical analysis endorse all these strategies. For example, David Romer, an economist at the University of California at Berkeley, published a working paper arguing that conventional football wisdom led to far too much punting. Romer analyzed thousands of plays and calculated the chance of scoring from any position on the field. Based on that, he gauged the relative worth of the field position gained by punting against the lost opportunity to score. Romer found that football coaches punt far more than they ought to -- perhaps acting out of fear of the worst outcome (going for it on fourth down and failing), rather than rationally balancing risk and reward. Romer's paper, ''It's Fourth Down and What Does the Bellman Equation Say? A Dynamic Programming Analysis of Football Strategy,'' is far from light reading, so it came as a shock to Romer when he learned that Belichick, who was an economics major at Wesleyan University, had read it. New York Times Magazine Link From the New York Times on Incremental Analysis, With Two Yards to Go: THE academic paper that David Romer began writing two years ago did not look like something that could determine the outcome of a Super Bowl. Sure, it was an analysis of whether professional football teams punt more often than is rational, but it seemed intended mainly for the amusement of sports fans who happen to be professors. Professor Romer, an economist at the University of California at Berkeley, used the phrases "Bellman equation" and "dynamic-programming analysis" - in the paper's title, no less. His footnotes cited work published in Econometrica, Cognitive Science and other publications that are not exactly must-reads in N.F.L. locker rooms. But when his conclusion - teams punt too much - began getting attention last summer, a reporter asked Bill Belichick, the coach of the New England Patriots, about the paper. "I read it," he said, according to The Boston Herald. "I don't know much of the math involved, but I think I understand the conclusions and he has some valid points." Upon hearing that, Professor Romer's jaw dropped, he said. His paper was available only on his Berkeley Internet site, emlab.berkeley.edu /users/dromer, and the site of a group called the National Bureau of Economic Research. New York Times Link

But if you ask anybody in statistics, they will admit that you can work the statistics to say anything you want them to. Stats are just a tool of measurement, like a measuring tape. A carpenter uses a measuring tape to measure a piece of wood before cutting. If the measuring tape is defective, the piece of wood ends up the wrong size. If the measurement is not properly read, the piece of wood ends up the wrong size. If the carpenter ignores the measuring tape and just wings it, the piece of wood ends up being the wrong size. There are lots of ways of getting something wrong. Those who profess to totally ignore stats because they know better are like a carpenter who refuses to measure before he cuts. Statistical systems may not be perfect. But properly interpreted, they beat the heck out of just winging it.

Not really. Moderators are ordinary posters...but with the added burden...I mean benefit of trying to keep relative order and letting people have their say. Nothing more. You should not try to follow anyone's model. As human beings, we have free will. Exercise it. If we all thought alike there would be no discussion. Just a bunch of "+1's." You don't think I'm exercising my free will enough? By definition, moderators moderate. If their job was to incite, they'd be called inciters. Without question, moderators set the overall tone on any forum by virtue of how they elect to moderate. Moderators can never simply be "ordinary posters" as long as they have extraordinary powers on a forum. For example, ordinary posters expect moderators to be above the fray and provide fair and balanced moderation, not to give the impression of poking sticks at those they disagree with and winking and nodding at their buddies. Along those lines, I want to thank the moderator who deleted a post with a personal attack against me by someone who apparently feels empowered on ZN.O to inappropriately exercise their free will at will.

I already said either 3 guards and 1 forward or 2 of each for 2011, depending on how the current group of new players works out. So with 2 guards and 1 forward having apparently already made verbals, the final choice is a tough call for me. Given the players graduating, the question marks about how the incoming frontcourt players will work out at power forward, and with no backup center for Zeke, I'm leaning toward more depth at power forward rather than a 3rd guard for 2011. If the Zips can't find a quality true center to take over for Zeke when he graduates, it will help to have a strong lineup of power forwards.

Comedy isn't the message...it's all in the delivery. I get it. A few people on ZN.O seem to have more frequent problems with my delivery style than others. That's why I added the new signature line. That's OK. There are a few people on ZN.O whose delivery styles I personally don't much care for, either. No big deal. We're all different. Either we constantly snipe at those whose delivery style we don't like, or we learn to accept our differences and live together in relative peace. Moderators are responsible for setting the tone on any forum, so I always try to follow the model they set.

The BCS already uses the equivalent of RPI in its rankings. RPI is nothing more than a mathematical formula to evaluate the relative strengths of teams. Numbers are run through a computer program, and it spits out a statistical estimate. The BCS averages a number of different polls, some generated by computer programs and some voted on by people, to produce its rankings. None of these systems is perfect. But some of the loudest protests on sports forums against these systems generally come from fans who either don't think their favorite teams are ranked highly enough, or those who are trying to convince others that they're smarter than any statistical system.

How long will it take Dave in Green and a few others to get a sense of humor? The thing about humor though, it's only funny when it's a reflection of reality. What makes you think I didn't interpret your poll as an attempt at humor, and what makes you think my response wasn't intended as counter-humor?

There are currently 347 D1 basketball teams, so about a quarter of them have averaged worse RPI than YSU over the last 10 years. CSU has only been a top 100 RPI team for the past couple of seasons. For the rest of the decade, their performance was only somewhat better than YSU's. UA's average was also much lower before KD arrived and made the Zips a consistent top 100 RPI team.

At one time it seemed to me that some Zips fans were being excessively critical of McNees' performance at the point. But the points mentioned in the last few posts are absolutely fair and accurate. While McNees was a good ball handler in HS, he was better known for his scoring. He set his school's scoring record of 55 points in a game, and averaged more than 28 ppg. He was the perfect definition of a combo guard -- one who could both score and handle the ball. But, based on his HS performance, he was predicted to be more of a shooting guard than a point guard in college. McNees has been forced to be the primary point guard for the Zips because the Zips do not currently have a pure point guard who has been able to consistently outperform McNees' steady but not brilliant performance at the point. In the meantime, the Zips have suffered from not being able to fully utilize McNees' proven shooting abilities while he has been focused on plugging the gap at the point. If Abreu is good enough to play point in his first season, everyone will benefit if McNees spends more time at shooting guard where he can focus more on what he does best.

How long will it take for Ianello's replacement to be fired? How long will it take for InfoCision Stadium to crumble and be condemned? How long will it take for Zips fans not to think of asking questions like these?

Some really good reports on Nick Harney from the King James Tournament. BuckeyePrep reports that Harney led his OBC team to a perfect 7-0 championship run, beating some AAU powerhouses along the way. On their way to the championship, OBC (7-0) defeated the likes of the King James Shooting Stars, Hurricane Running Rebels, All-Ohio Force, CP3 All-Stars, Team Takeover, and The Family. In order to claim the championship of this tournament, OBC's needed solid guard play from PJ Boutte and Jehvon Clarke and superior post from Chane Behanan and unsigned senior Nick Harney, and that's exactly what they got. Harney and Behanan terrorized teams this weekend and should remain a force to be reckoned with all summer long. It should be noted, in their first two tournaments of the season, OBC has reached the championship game twice, and has established themselves as one of the top teams in the country. buckeyeprep And jjhuddle.com reports that while Harney lacks an outside game, his inside game more than makes up for it: Unsigned senior Nick Harney of Cleveland Benedictine scored 18 points and yanked down nine boards. The 6-foot-7 Harney scored on several two-handed dunks off quality penetrations from guards P.J. Boutte and Jehvon Clarke. Harney ran the floor very well and showed his ability to finish above the cup. He plays with tons of energy, which lets him make up for an absent perimeter game. jjhuddle.com This recent flurry of good performances and good press may bring Harney on to the radar of some college teams that previously hadn't been aware of his apparently growing abilities. So let's hope he remains seriously committed to UA.

Here's one I missed on Harney on my last search. Not bad for his final HS game, an all-star event: Benedictine is new to The News-Herald coverage area this year, and the Bengals don't play many teams from Lake, Geauga or Eastern Cuyahoga counties. So when Benedictine senior Nick Harney took the floor at Lakeland Community College for Saturday's 32nd News-Herald Classic, there was a lot of unfamiliarity. What a first impression the 6-foot-7 forward made on his teammates, coaches and local basketball fans in his final high school game. With 34 points, 13 rebounds, three assists and a key steal late to help put away a 139-136 victory for the West, Harney certainly no longer needs introductions in this area. news-herald.com

No question that CSU has been consistently stronger than YSU over the past decade. Average RPI over the past 10 seasons for UA, CSU and YSU respectively have been 129, 193 and 256. I'd like it if YSU is the weakest team the Zips schedule in the future, replacing some of the even weaker programs UA has scheduled in the past. I'd like it even more if YSU improved their program. Point is, every team in the country schedules a few games against weaker opponents. The good thing about having YSU as one of the Zips weakest opponents is that the schools are close enough that fans can easily travel both ways. That's all. I never said I was especially excited about YSU as an opponent, just that it's better to have a weaker opponent be nearby than halfway across the country.