Dave in Green

Who gets all of Conyers' and C McKnight's PT?

We've been discussing Dakotah Euton and Josh Egner a lot. But what about UA's 3rd forward recruit for 2010, Michael Green (someone please be sure to spell check that name)?The 6-6 forward from Columbus is having a pretty good season. His Dublin Coffman team is in the top 25 in Ohio HS D1. In a recent game, he almost singlehandedly brought his team back from a halftime deficit to win by scoring 25 of his 40 points in the second half.Can he hit from the outside? There's a good description in the following article about how he got into a long-range bombing contest with 5-11 sharpshooting guard Brian Sullivan of Upper Arlington. While his team lost, Green impressed with a half dozen 3s, including a pair of consecutive step-back 3s late in the game, to go along with his aggressive inside game.Green's Outside ShootingOhio Basketball Club rates Green the 4th best HS senior wing forward in the state (they also rate Josh Egner as the 2nd best HS senior power forward in the state behind only Jared Sullinger).Ohio Basketball Club Player RatingsNot enough data here to fully understand Green's potential. No mention of his defensive game, for example. But it sounds as if he may have at least similar potential to Euton and Egner.

Zeke really need to be playing long minutes starting next season for the Zips to go to the next level. A player of his abilities should be on the floor at least 30 minutes per game. Nik deserves a lot more PT than just 10 minutes per game as Zeke's backup. The Zips would be a stronger team with Zeke and Nik on the floor together for more than a couple of minutes a game.

I wouldn't try to judge Egner's outside shooting ability from last night's game. As I said, he had a good stroke but just appeared a little off. Maybe someone can find Egner's season shooting percentage stats. But I've found that detailed HS stats are hard to come by.After seeing him in person, I can easily envision Egner as a defensive stopper. He has the quick feet, speed and leaping ability to stay on top of other team's forwards. If he focuses his intensity on defense, he could earn a lot of PT from KD, and make life miserable for a lot of opposing MAC forwards.Euton definitely has an outside shot. He's one of the better 3-point shooting 6-8 HS forwards in the country. Euton admitted before this season that he needed work on D. Without having seen him play, I can't say how good he is on D this year. But offense has never been a question for Euton. He has range from in the paint to deep 3s, and I believe he hits 3s at a 40%+ rate.The Zips lose 2 key forwards next year in Conyers and C. McKnight, who between them average 46.2 minutes per game and a major percentage of the Zips' frontcourt scoring and rebounding. That's more than half of the 80 minutes that the two forward positions average per game. So there will be a lot of PT to replace, and it's going to be important for at least 2 of the 3 incoming freshmen to adapt quickly to D1.

Zips have to beat Can't at the JAR the way Can't beat the Zips at Can't in order to end any doubt about who's number one in the MAC. But let's focus on Buffalo and Bowling Green first.

I have good new for Zips fans. I went to a high school basketball game and saw a bunch of high school kids play, and one man. Seriously. There were a lot of baby faces out there, and one guy who looked like he was in his 20s. However you spell his name, Josh Egner is an impressive young player. I'll try to put down all my observations and thoughts.First, Egner was playing hurt. Both his ankles were wrapped, and he was clearly limping. But he played every minute of the game. Mark Henniger, his talented teammate who is going to Can't, spent a few minutes on the bench each half resting. Egner looked like he had enough energy to play back-to-back games without a breather on broken ankles. He is one intense dude. He was by far the best athlete on the floor. In warmups he was way above the rim on his layups.The next sign of his athleticism was when he took center court for the tipoff instead of his taller teammate, Henniger. Egner is a huge leaper, and easily controlled the tip. The Jackson offense was pretty basic: Henniger sets up inside, the ball is lobbed to him and he hits 3-footer after 3-footer over the shorter opponents. Henniger has a nice soft touch and good moves for a big man. I just don't know how well that will translate to D1 against players his own size. There's no question that Henniger is good. But he's not as intense as Egner, and my impression is that Egner would be more the kind of player that the Zips really need.Egner's outside shot was off tonight, probably affected by his sore wheels. But he has a nice looking stroke, and I suspect he'd be good for the occasional 3. His real strength is inside, where he's a beast. He fought for the ball like a warrior, and when he got his hands on it, it went down hard. Real hard. On one breakaway, they hit Egner with a pass and he went up over the rim and slammed it so hard that the backboard was rocking. It was an NBA quality slam.Egner also plays good defense. He's quick on his feet, and with his leaping ability, he's a devastating blocker. He really embarassed a couple of Green HS players with his perfectly timed blocks. And speaking of his feet, they're big. From way up in the stands you could see his feet were several sizes larger than anyone else on the court, including the larger Henniger. Don't know if that means that he has any growth spurts left or not. But even if he doesn't grow another inch, he plays taller than his height. He also has quick hands and got a few steals that reminded me of Linhart and Conyers. In fact, Egner strikes me as having a lot of the positive qualities of both Linhart and Conyers -- intensity, athleticism and smarts -- rolled into one package. Discussing Egner's intensity with one of the Jackson fans, he said that Egner had quite a temper. So he may have a little Cvetinovic in him, as well.Coming back to reality, this was my first HS basketball game in more than 40 years. It's hard to tell how a player who looked so good against HS competition will be in D1. But Egner clearly made a good impression on me. He's kind of thin and wiry, so he's going to have to spend time in the weight room. But he strikes me as really tough. He not only plays above his height but above his weight. He's wiry strong, and had no problem moving heavier players around under the basket.He definitely has a presence. The way he walks and carries himself was clearly different from anyone else on the court. He is a tough, hard-nosed player. The word intensity keeps coming back to me. He has that kind of intensity that was so obvious in Tyler Hansbrough. I'm not saying he's a Tyler Hansbrough, but he does have a little of that psycho look in his eyes.I don't think I'm the only one who thinks that the Zips could use a good injection of this type of attitude. I'm really hoping that Egner will hit the JAR running and start contributing right away. I think that all Zips fans are going to really like this guy.

I've been checking the box scores of most of the Scott County games over the past couple of months in the Louisville newspaper online. In all but one I've seen, Euton has had a double-double, so he must be averaging a double-double for the season. It seems like 14 is his magic number for rebounds, as I've seen him snag exactly 14 rebounds in a large number of those games. I'm guessing he has to be averaging at least 12 rebounds per game. He normally scores in the 12-16 point range, as there are several other players on the team who are big scorers, and they tend to divide up the points. But in his most recent game Saturday, Euton led his team in scoring with 22 points and, surprise, 14 rebounds.

Couldn't resist playing around with those numbers. Following is the average, low and high RPI of the top 5 teams in the MAC over the past 6 years. The Zips have been the most consistent with the smallest spread between low and high. They have the potential to be the only MAC team to have a top 100 RPI for all six years if they have a strong finish to this season and raise their current 107 RPI.Team RPI Average Best WorstCan't ........ 69.3 ... 21 ... 138Akron ....... 82.7 ... 67 ... 107Miami ....... 88.3 ... 52 ... 149Ohio ....... 109.2 ... 58 ... 184Buffalo ... 144.5 ... 46 ... 268

I still remember back in the '60s driving for hours down the modest country roads of Louisiana to see my college team play away games. We'd be driving home at 1 a.m., notice that we were a car full of black and white kids miles from home in the middle of the night while Jim Crow laws were still on the books in Louisiana, and we'd all be thinking, please don't let the next small town sheriff decide that we look like we're a good target to bust.I'd hate to think that today's kids are not up to that kind of adventure.

This is one of the best discussions I've even seen on ZN. I love college basketball and have been attending college games around the country for more than 40 years. I always come home with a hoarse throat.Someone absolutely has to figure out the disconnect between soccer and basketball. Sure, it's easy to ride a proven winner. Anyone can do that. The hard part is getting behind a team on the rise that needs the student body to let them know they matter. It's a proven fact that the home court is an advantage in college basketball. But it's less of an advantage with tepid support and more of an advantage with crazy support. There's no doubt in my mind that if the same number of Rowdies showed up for basketball games as soccer games, the team would respond. You guys and gals can be a part of creating a winner (basketball), not just riding a winner that's already there (soccer).Find a way to get a huge turnout of Rowdies at a game other than Can't, and let the Zips know you care. It will absolutely motivate the players. I promise you they will notice and reward you with better play.

Here's the comparative RPI ratings of recent Zips teams and the MAC competition they faced:2004-0546. Buffalo 52. Miami58. Ohio 69. Can't 77. Akron 97. Western Michigan 105. Toledo 109. Bowling Green 120. Ball State 185. Northern Illinois 237. Marshall246. Central Michigan 267. Eastern Michigan2005-0648. Can't71. Akron 84. Miami99. Ohio 126. Northern Illinois 130. Buffalo 148. Toledo 195. Western Michigan 254. Ball State 256. Bowling Green 306. Eastern Michigan 315. Central Michigan 2006-0767. Akron 87. Can't 92. Miami 94. Toledo 105. Ohio 150. Western Michigan 226. Central Michigan 234. Eastern Michigan 237. Buffalo 242. Bowling Green 274. Ball State 301. Northern Illinois 2007-0821. Can't72. Miami75. Akron 76. Ohio 119. Western Michigan 184. Central Michigan 187. Toledo 201. Bowling Green 237. Eastern Michigan 268. Buffalo 296. Northern Illinois 297. Ball State2008-0981. Miami89. Buffalo99. Akron138. Can't157. Bowling Green184. Ohio262. Ball State297. Central Michigan301. Western Michigan317. Toledo318. Eastern Michigan328. Northern Illinois2009-1053. Can't97. Buffalo 107. Akron 133. Ohio 149. Miami156. Western Michigan 164. Bowling Green 175. Ball State 200. Central Michigan 211. Eastern Michigan 255. Northern Illinois 327. Toledo

Buffalo has a 97 RPI, so beating them just might be enough to help the Zips crack into the top 100 RPI. The Zips' RPI didn't change much after being whipped by VCU. As of this moment the Zips remain at 107 in RPI, tied with Virginia and Colorado State. Whether or not anyone puts much faith in the RPI formula, consistently being in the top 100 RPI is a characteristic that's common to the best teams. The Zips need to earn their way there and stay there. StatSheet.com RPI for Feb. 22

I thought you wanted to keep traffic level up to attract paying sponsors to fund the site.There aren't enough sponsors in the world to pay for the bandwidth you're consuming.OK, let's just make it clear that it's my traffic volume that's objectionable and not the fact that I express disagreement with some of the prevailing opinions on ZN. It's important for other forum members to understand this so they can avoid repeating my transgression. I can easily cut back on the number of posts I make here. But I do not change my opinions just to fit in and be one of the regular guys.

I thought you wanted to keep traffic level up to attract paying sponsors to fund the site.

I remember the Buffalo fans putting out a pretty fair decibel level at the MAC tournament, and especially appreciated some of the clever anti-Can't chants. It's great to see this level of interest from any MAC basketball fans.Zips fans can be a little on the passive side, so it will be good to have a noisy Buffalo fan section to prod Zips fans into action.

17-point ass-kickings at the hands of 4th place CAA teams will do that.If you can puff your chest out after that loss, good for you. You coping mechanisms are far superior to anyone else's on this board. And as a Zips fan, you don't know how valuable a gift from God that is. Cherish it.What's with this persistence in trying to portray an imaginary character who doesn't exist? No one is expressing pride or puffing out their chest over the loss no matter what someone's imagination may be telling them. It has simply been dispassionately noted that some aspects of the Zips play were not as bad as others, and that some in fact were as good or better than those of the team that whipped them. That objective observation in no way mitigates the reality and the pain of such a loss, and no Zips fan is smoking a victory cigar over it.Not everyone looks at everything in the world in stark black and white terms. Some try to examine and analyze a situation and see many shades of gray ranging from extremely dark to extremely light. If you shut your eyes after a loss, then everything is pitch black. If you try to keep your eyes and mind open to analyze what went wrong, you begin to see the nuances in shades of gray. This is the kind of analysis that good coaches and players should try to do after losing a game. It's also a valid option for fans to consider.The same applies after a big win. Not everything will have worked to perfection in a win, and the best coaches and players will analyze the various shades of gray in different performance categories and focus on improving in the darker (weaker) areas. This is also a valid option for fans to consider.There are also fans who want to soak in their misery after a loss and spread their misery around on sports forums. They only see black, and are offended that anyone dares mention shades of gray. They try to portray those who see shades of gray as Pollyannas who see everything only in pure white. That doesn't work because it's not true, no matter how many times it may be repeated.

Well, statistics don't always tell the whole story. But the only means of evaluating relative team strength other than numbers is human interpretation or opinion, and the only reliable thing about opinions is that they lead to endless internet forum debates. So we have to take those two imperfect measurements -- numbers and human interpretation -- shake well, pour, and hope it comes out reasonably close to a perfect cocktail.

Why do you care so much about those stupid computer rankings? The only thing that matters is points scored in comparison to the other team.It's one thing to use statistics to compare various aspects of a game...it is another to use them to make it seem as if a 17 point loss was not that bad. UofA was horrible yesterday any way someone wants to slice it. The Zips were so bad, Zip Watcher hasn't even come in the board to tell us this is part of the "building process" KD sees for the team. It's either that or he is following the old rule that if you have nothing good to say, don't say anything at all.There are lies, damn lies and statistics.That's your interpretation, which was not my intent. Please try to read my words and not my mind.

Zips fans have varying opinions about the team's SOS. Some think it's OK having a weak schedule, others think it should be at least a little stronger and some think it ought to be a lot stronger.An interesting insight into how much difference a single game can make is that the Zips SOS for this season took a 35-position climb, from 209 to 174 out of 347 D1 teams, with the simple addition of VCU and its high RPI for the BracketBuster game. Similarly, Cleveland State took a 31-position drop in SOS when they drew Toledo in the BracketBuster.Zips are listed as one of the top SOS gainers at the top of the page in the following link:NCAA SOS

Can't (55 RPI) was playing at home against a team with a 125 RP!, a bigger rating gap than between VCU (61 RPI) and UA (101 RPI). Yet Can't won by only 2 points when they should have blown out Western Carolina worse than VCU did to UA.I haven't seen a single Zips fan on this forum express pride about a Zips loss. I do note that some fans try to give some credit to the effort by the Zips coaches and players, win or lose, while others elect to focus exclusively on the negatives.It's a given that winning is better than losing. No one disagrees with that, so it's not an appropriate debating point. The debatable point is how good fans should react to a loss -- crap all over the coaches and players as if they were the most worthless scum on the planet, or acknowledge that the overall team performance was disappointing but try to give them a little credit for a few small things they did right in an otherwise bad loss.

Of course they did. They only scored 53 points. Points scored compared to the other team is the most important statistic. Turnovers, steals, blocks and rebounds lead to scoring opportunities, not necessarily points.In big games, you had better be able to score points and put pressure on the other team. Akron put no pressure on VCU to perform all day.That was just plain bad in every way.Bad that the Zips came within 2 rebounds of a team that was supposed to kill them on the boards?Bad that the Zips had fewer turnovers against a pressing defense that was supposed to cause a Zips meltdown?Bad that the Zips had more steals than the team with the "more athletic" players?Bad that the Zips had more blocked shots than the team with the experienced big with the 7-foot-7 wingspan who's projected to be an NBA lottery pick?Bad that the Zips caused the projected NBA lottery pick to foul out?The Zips played like men against men. They lost because they couldn't get the ball through the hoop. It happens to the biggest, baddest, toughest men who play the sport.One thing I do believe is bad are fans who are so focused on pointing fingers at what went wrong that they refuse to acknowledge any good from the team they claim to support.Whatever you are smoking, please send some down to South Carolina.It's OK to say the Zips got their asses kicked today. It happens to everyone and it happened today. Living in a statistical fantasy world does not help.Again, the only stat that matters is point differential. VCU scored more points today than UofA.I'm truly baffled about your continuing misconception that anyone is disputing the final score, or that it represents anything other than the sum of all components of the game. VCU whipped the Zips just as the experts had predicted. Pomeroy predicted that VCU would win, 77-66, and that the Zips only had a 16% chance of winning. I believed Pomeroy and other credible sources who made similar predictions. Apparently others here did not, as there was some trash talking about VCU not being as good as people thought and the Zips being better. Now most of the talk is about how bad the Zips players played and the coaches coached.I'm just reading the cold, hard numbers. If the experts had been told that the Zips would be within 2 rebounds of VCU, and would have outperformed them in the areas of turnovers, steals and blocked shots, the experts might have given the Zips a better shot at winning. But the good performance in those areas was offset by the poor performance in shooting, which did nothing more than bring the final score back to the area where the experts predicted it would be.So I think I had realistic expectations for the Zips before, during and after the game. There's really no mystery here as long as you consider all of the facts. If you want to ignore some of the facts and focus on others, then you will probably end up at a different location.

You do not outperform a team like VCU on their homecourt in the areas where the Zips outperformed them by playing "lazy" and with "no heart."I suspect that Districtballer will have more good things to say about the Zips than some Zips fans.

Final MAC BracketBuster Record 7-5W Can't 74, Western Carolina 72W Central Michigan 79, Tennessee State 73L Northern Illinois 70, Eastern Illinois 73L Toledo 63, Cleveland State 87L Akron 53, VCU 70W Ohio 64, Wright State 59L Eastern Michigan 66, Detroit 68L Western Michigan 72, Southern Illinois 89W Miami 69, Southeast Missouri State 53W Bowling Green 87, Valpo 70W Buffalo 77, St. Peter's 75 (OT)W Ball State 68, Tennessee-Martin 52

MAC Record 6-5W Central Michigan 79, Tennessee State 73L Northern Illinois 70, Eastern Illinois 73L Toledo 63, Cleveland State 87L Akron 53, VCU 70W Ohio 64, Wright State 59L Eastern Michigan 66, Detroit 68L Western Michigan 72, Southern Illinois 89W Miami 69, Southeast Missouri State 53W Bowling Green 87, Valpo 70W Buffalo 77, St. Peter's 75 (OT)W Ball State 68, Tennessee-Martin 52Can't is the last hope to give the MAC a better than .500 record. With about 12 minutes left, Can't trails Western Carolina by 1 point.

MAC Record 5-4L Toledo 63, Cleveland State 87L Akron 53, VCU 70W Ohio 64, Wright State 59L Eastern Michigan 66, Detroit 68L Western Michigan 72, Southern Illinois 89W Miami 69, Southeast Missouri State 53W Bowling Green 87, Valpo 70W Buffalo 77, St. Peter's 75 (OT)W Ball State 68, Tennessee-Martin 52