Dave in Green

I continue to fail to see a big gulf in opinions here. My interpretation of what others are saying (which could be wrong) is that no one is "excited" about the NIT, but everyone is glad that the NIT is there as a consolation prize in case the Zips fail to make the NCAA tournament. I wouldn't describe that as being "excited" about the NIT, but that's just my interpretation. A consolation prize is better than nothing, but nothing to get overly excited about.Consolation: a source of comfort in a time of suffering, grief, disappointment, etc.

The MAC was worse overall last year with a final conference RPI average that ranked as 21st strongest conference compared to the current rank of 16th.Both the East and West had lower average RPIs last year than this. As you can see by the following final individual RPIs for all MAC teams last season, the West was truly awful, and really dragged down the overall MAC RPI average.85 ........ Miami 101 ...... Buffalo 103 ...... Akron 145 ...... Can't157 ...... Bowling Green 187 ...... Ohio 262 ...... Ball State 299 ...... Central Michigan 302 ...... Western Michigan 318 ...... Toledo 320 ...... Eastern Michigan 330 ...... Northern IllinoisThe average MAC West RPI last year was 305, which would have ranked dead last among all conferences if broken out separately.The average MAC East RPI last year was 130, which while lower than this year's current 116 average, would have ranked the East a little higher last year than this -- 9th compared with 10th this season.

That's the way I read half these posts. If you told me today that we will end up in the NIT, no I wouldn't be excited, because our goal right now is the big dance and any time you miss your goal your not excited. If we get in the NIT, the day they announce the pairings, I'll be excited. The day of our (proposed) NIT game, I'll be excited. When we (hopefully) win an NIT game I'll be excited. If we get to the final four in the NIT, I'll probably say to myself, hmmm maybe it was better to make the NIT then go to the big dance and get beat in the first round. But I WANT TO WIN A GAME IN THE DANCE. Everybody loves those first round games and those are the most exciting games. Winning one of those games will go a long way for our program. I'm pretty sure everyone feels like this, no?You guys nailed it.There's some classic internet forum debating going on in this thread. Everyone agrees that the NCAA tournament is more important than the NIT. The only disagreement is how much less important the NIT is than the NCAA. In classic internet forum debate style, one side posts that the other side must think the NIT has no value, and the other side fires back that they must think the tournaments are of equal value.No. Everyone is in agreement that the NCAA is more important. The only question is by how much. Whatever your opinion may be, it's not wrong for you. Where it starts going wrong is when mischaracterizations of other people's opinions are employed to "prove" that one side is absolutely right and the other side is absolutely wrong.If the two sides fighting it out here focused more on where they were in agreement than where they differ, there'd no longer be a battle over this because there's not enough true substance to fuel a battle.

OK, now that I have a little more free time, I'll go back to being the straight man and try to resolve this issue of questioning the significance of any numbers that I post.Basketball has always been my favorite sport because my father was an accomplished player and coach who taught me as a child to see basketball from a different perspective than most casual fans.I've recently had more free time to research stats, something that's always been of interest to me. Many more stats are available today than in the past. So you have to work a little harder to come up with a stat that's not already available.There have been a number of comments on this forum about what a drag the West is on the overall MAC conference strength. But there was no readily available statistic quantifying that. I just took the time to do the math that showed the relative RPI of the MAC East and West compared with the MAC overall, and included all other conference RPI averages as a relative measuring stick.Since most conferences are not broken out into separate divisions like the MAC, there was no way to break every conference up the same way. In any case, that would have taken a lot of time, and was not really pertinent to the question of how the MAC East and West compare.You ask what this proves? Numbers by themselves are always open to interpretation, so different people will walk away with different thoughts about what this proves, if anything.I'm certainly not trying to prove anything to anyone. I'm just sharing the results of my work with all Zips fans hoping that some will have some appreciation for it. I know from past experience that some will not give a rat's tail about the numbers and some will want to debate how meaningful they are.I'm not interested in having that debate because I'm not trying to sell anything. I don't use sports forums to prove that I'm the Great Prognosticator. I use sports forums to gather data from other thoughtful posters to expand my own knowledge base, and to share data I may find or generate that others may not have considered or seen.I'm always happy to take the time to try to answer any serious questions about my statistical methods. But I'm not interested in debating how relevant the numbers are. That's for everyone to decide for themselves.

I thought that you had given up on trying to convince me to admit that everything I post here is worthless.

It's been discussed before on this forum that RPI ranks the MAC as only the 16th strongest of 33 D1 conferences. What would happen if we separated the MAC East and West into separate conferences with their own average RPI?Maybe Zips fans should start saying we belong to the 10th strongest conference in the country (MAC East) and not the 16th-rated MAC.Big 12 .................... 54 Big East ................. 57 ACC ....................... 58 SEC ....................... 79 Big Ten .................. 98 A-10 .................... 106 Pac 10 ................. 106 Missouri Valley ..... 110 Mountain West .... 113MAC East ............. 116WAC .................... 136 C-USA .................. 144 CAA ...................... 155 West Coast .......... 163 Horizon ................ 163 MAAC ................... 166 MAC ..................... 170SoCon .................. 194 Big Sky ................. 202 Big West .............. 205 Ohio Valley ........... 207 Sun Belt ............... 213Ivy League ........... 214 Summit League ..... 219 America East ......... 220 MAC West ............ 224Atlantic Sun ........... 229 Southland ............. 234 Big South .............. 241 Patriot .................. 251 NEC ...................... 259 MEAC .................... 272 SWAC ................... 288 Independents ....... 297 Great West ........... 322

Surprisingly, when you measure the fouls per game called by all 27 refs who've worked MAC games this season, only 11 have called more fouls in MAC games than their average for all games while 16 have called fewer fouls in MAC games.Biggest statistical discrepancies against the MAC (MAC average/all games average +/-) are:David Walker ..... 41.7/37.8 +3.9Terry Wymer ...... 41.2/38.0 +3.2 Bill Ek ................. 40.2/37.0 +3.2You can check the list to see where your favorite ref ranks:StatSheet.com MAC Refs

Why the NIT is not unimportant:ZN Post

The Zips still have some things to accomplish in the NIT. Winning more than a game or two and making it to Madison Square Garden would be a big deal for both the players and fans.Also, winning the NIT post-season championship might get the Zips an invitation to the NIT Season Tip-Off / Preseason NIT. That would match the Zips up against some high RPI teams early in the season, which would help with SOS.None other than the Gary Trent-led Ohio Bobkitties won the preseason NIT in 1994 over a field that included such traditional powers as Alabama, Syracuse, Ohio State, Virginia, Kansas State, Memphis, USC, etc. So there are some positives to be found in the NIT, even if they are secondary to the Big Dance.

Singletary's name is synonomous with foul.He ranks 28th in the country in fouls committed per game (3.462).He ranks 91st in the country in fouls drawn per 40 minutes (6.2).Fortunately, the fouls drawn is somewhat offset by a lower than average free throw percentage for a guard (62.9%).Singletary has a lot in common with running back Don Nottingham, the original Human Bowling Ball in football. He runs over people just like Nottingham did at Can't and in the NFL.Sometimes MAC refs call the foul on Singletary and sometimes on the players he's running over. But there's always a foul aroma around Singletary.

Here's a little reality check for anyone who thinks the NIT might invite more than one MAC team. NIT-ology.com currently projects that there will be no MAC teams, as in NONE, ZERO.How could that happen? They obviously believe that Can't will win both the MAC regular season and tournament championships, go to the NCAA tournament, and leave the MAC without its automatic NIT bid.So what about the Zips? They are listed along with Buffalo in a list of 32 teams that do not make the cut.This means the Zips must win Friday or there is no NIT bid, and we already know that unless the Zips win the MAC tournament there is no NCAA bid.There's just no substitute for winning.NIT-ology.com

I was one of those saying earlier this season that the only thing that matters is the MAC tournament. But that was only in reference to earning a bid to the NCAA tournament. Having a guaranteed NIT bid in the pocket going into the MAC tournament matters a lot.Two teams have set themselves apart from the rest of the MAC this year. The only way for one of those two teams to clearly set itself apart from the other is to win both Friday and in the MAC tournament. Friday's game is the first of several must wins for the Zips to take the next step up. It's huge.

thats pretty impressive, except that we havent even won 7 mac road games. infact we are 6-2 on the road in the mac and have won 5 mac road games in a rowThe Zips have won their last 7 MAC games in a row. He didn't say ROAD games. Mon, Feb 01 Eastern Michigan * - Akron, Ohio 7 p.m. 59 - 62 (L) Wed, Feb 03 Northern Illinois * - Akron, Ohio 7 p.m. 90 - 76 (W) Sat, Feb 06 Ball State * - at Muncie, Ind. Noon 75 - 70 (W) OT Tue, Feb 09 Central Michigan * - at Mt. Pleasant, Mich. 7 p.m. 56 - 52 (W) Sun, Feb 14 Ohio * - Akron, Ohio 2 p.m. 91 - 88 (W) 2OT Wed, Feb 17 Miami (Ohio) * - at Oxford, Ohio 7 p.m. 61 - 56 (W) Wed, Feb 24 Buffalo * - Akron, Ohio 7 p.m. 77 - 67 (W) Sat, Feb 27 Bowling Green * - at Bowling Green, Ohio 2:30 p.m. 74 - 68 (W)indeed, my fault, i misread itNo problem. It seems to be happening a lot to me lately, so I'm starting to get used to it.

I know that folks here don't agree, but being in the top 100 means a lot.If we beat K-ent, and somehow lose the tournament by a shot at the buzzer, we do have a shot at the Dance, and at least the NIT.And I would rather win the NIT than go one and done in the NCAA. Not that it's going to happen.I really appreciate your optimism. But history shows that for a mid-major 50-100 RPI is a good feeling, 25-50 RPI is starting to get fairly impressive, and 1-25 RPI starts to have at-large NCAA tournament implications if the team passes all of the other measuring sticks. Don't forget that Missouri State got passed over with a 21 RPI, and there's absolutely no chance of the Zips getting anywhere near that high this season prior to the national tournaments.I don't know how much weight RPI carries in the NIT. But they only have half as many teams as the NCAA tourney, and if they already have one automatic MAC qualifier, they may not be excited about a second one.Winning the NIT would be a great accomplishment for the Zips. But no matter how you cut it, the NIT is generally considered a tournament of also-rans who couldn't make the 65-team NCAA cut.I think that qualifying for the NCAA tournament two years in a row would be better for the Zips' overall reputation with most fans and recruits, even if they were to lose in the first round. But you can't know whether you're going to win or lose until you get there and play the game(s).

One great thing about Bardo is that when he fouls an opponent driving to the hoop, the ball rarely goes in. Bardo fouls with authority like a pro.It drives me crazy that so many of the other Zips give half-hearted fouls that allow the opponent to follow through to the bucket, score and also shoot a free throw. Either don't touch the opponent at all, or touch him in a way that he's not likely to get a 3-point play out of it. No love taps!

Zips finally break into the RPI top 100 after beating BGSU, and are ranked 93 this afternoon. Annoyingly, Buffalo is still rated ahead of the Zips at 91.More importantly, Can't is all the way up to 47, so the target continues to get bigger.RPI at StatSheet.com

I'm not sure what the big deal is here. All I said is that I don't see much in the game's PT that's out of line with my original thoughts on who might get a little more or a little less PT. Could be pure coincidence that the actual PT numbers happened to work out pretty much as I had suggested in my first post in this thread. As I said earlier, we're all just guessing. There are certainly many additional factors that haven't even been discussed in this thread, and I make no claims to having any inside information.

It's official. The winner of the MAC East will be 13-3.

Is it OK to say I'm OK with Can't beating Miami tonight because I want them coming to the JAR with the highest possible rating and all the experts expecting them to beat the Zips?

Toledo desperately tries to keep its perfect conference record intact. But Ball State misses a 3 with 5 seconds left to tie, and Toledo falls into its first MAC win of the year, 45-42.

You folks looked great on ESPN 360. They showed you as often as they did the home crowd. Nice work.

Ball State is currently 6 of 31 from the field (19.4%). Even Toledo has a chance against this level of shooting incompetence.

Don't hold your breath. This is the same Toledo that led Cleveland State early in the second half before totally collapsing and losing by 24.

What a difference from last year when the Zips had lost 2 of their last 5 conference games going into the season finale at Can't, where they lost their 3rd conference game of the final 6 in the regular season as well as their last chance for a bye in the MAC tournament.This year the Zips have won 7 MAC games in a row going into the season finale against Can't at the JAR, the bye is clinched and it's all about whipping the team that, like it or not, has been the dominant power in the MAC over the past decade.If the players and fans aren't up for this one, we're all brain dead.

Yep, I don't see much in today's PT that's out of line with my original thoughts.It had been speculated that Marshall and Roberts might be hurting a little, and they each played a few minutes less than their averages. Some of the players who typically play the longest minutes (Conyers, McNees, Hitchens) played a few minutes less than average, and some of the players who typically play shorter minutes (C. McKnight, McClanahan, Steward) played a few extra minutes. KD obviously did take the opportunity to give Steward extra minutes at the point, as his +7 minutes was the most for any of the Zips.Full analysis is below. First number is the average number of minutes each player has been playing in conference games only (which better reflects the second half of the season after the rotation was more stabilized), second number is minutes played today and third number is the +/- minutes played. Order is sorted by most + minutes to most - minutes.STEWARD, Ronnie .......... 6/13 (+7)McKNIGHT, Chris .......... 22/27 (+5)McCLANAHAN, Brett ..... 12/14 (+2)McKNIGHT, Brett .......... 19/18 (-1)CVETINOVIC, Nikola ..... 21/20 (-1)BARDO, Mike .................. 6/3 (-3)CONYERS, Jimmy .......... 30/27 (-3)HITCHENS, Anthony ..... 26/23 (-3)McNEES, Steve ............. 30/27 (-3)ROBERTS, Darryl ........... 20/17 (-3)MARSHALL, Zeke .......... 16/11 (-5)