Dave in Green

"Akron has so many guys that can score, and so many offensive plays for so many guys. They have a cockiness about them, when they come into your gym, and the game gets tight, they like to run something. Now the coaches on the other team, which will be me Wednesday, will say, "Oh no." That's one of the things that keep them going, they can score in so many ways." -- Miami coach Charlie Coles on what separates Akron from the rest of the league.PD Link

Gonzaga didn't wait for the West Coast Conference to grow, either. Aside from St. Mary's, which is OK but still not strong enough to get an NCAA bid without winning the conference championship, the rest of the teams in that conference are nothing special. The WCC rates only slightly above the Horizon in the Pomeroy ratings based on average ratings of all teams in each conference.Pomeroy Conference Ratings

It's obviously true that a typical one-bid conference can get two bids if one team has a high enough rating to qualify for the NCAA tournament without winning its own conference championship.But, thinking only in terms of the Zips team and not whatever conference it might be in, that really doesn't change anything. Whatever conference the Zips played in, they would still either have to win their conference tournament or be a strong enough team to qualify for the NCAA tournament without winning their conference tournament.Just being in a higher-ranked conference wouldn't help if the Zips played at the same level of performance they do in the MAC. They'd be playing stronger teams with higher RPIs, but they'd be losing more of those games unless their level of play also went up to the same overall level of the conference in which they were playing.

Please get it right:MAC reffing is a parody.The MAC conference has parity.

Are you thinking that Butler has just gotten good in the last year or so?1996-97 23-10 NCAA 1st Round 1997-98 22-11 NCAA 1st Round 1998-99 22-10 NIT Quarterfinals 1999-2000 23-8 NCAA 1st Round 2000-01 24-8 NCAA 2nd Round 2001-02 26-6 NIT 2nd Round 2002-03 27-6 NCAA Sweet Sixteen 2003-04 16-14 - 2004-05 13-15 - 2005-06 20-13 NIT 1st Round 2006-07 29-7 NCAA Sweet Sixteen 2007-08 30-4 NCAA Second Round 2008-09 26-6 NCAA First Round

At least 26 of 31 mid-major coaches rank Butler over Gonzaga.Mid-Major Coaches Poll

Funny you should mention this. I was thinking last night that the Zips appear over the past few games to have fallen into a rhythm of doing just enough to win, regardless of each opponent's level of strength or whose court the game is played on. It's the classic distance running strategy of falling into a quick enough pace to stay near the front, but not overexerting and losing the energy reserve required for that final kick to the finish line.Blowing out other teams may be more fun. But learning how to win close games is more useful going into the part of the season when the lesser teams are being eliminated and the better teams are playing increasingly tougher opponents in more closely matched, pressure-packed games.The Zips are certainly not invincible. But if the way they are playing right now is part of KD's master plan for the season, and if they continue peaking both individually and as a team right on through the MAC tournament, it's another good sign of his coaching abilities.

How about a little guessing game:Who was the Zips assist leader tonight?Who was the Zips second leading rebounder tonight?Who handled the ball the most with only 1 turnover tonight?Who hit the final 2 free throws that iced the game tonight?Who is the guy that so many veteran ZN members believe isn't doing a good job?I know. That last one gave it away.

C McKnight is stepping up big time. Good shooting from the field, good free throws in crunch time and a huge steal near the end.

Low score, back and forth, in doubt to the buzzer.

Absolutely perfect UA-Miami game.

Zips went from hot shooting to cold shooting. It happens.

OU 52, Can't 44 with 11:35 left.

Since someone got away with committing murder .....

Gotta love the following comment:Chris Singletary is only playing 25.8 minutes a game- whistles seem to be magnetically attracted to him- but he’s making the most of those limited minutes, making key contributions on both sides of the court.The very first time I saw Singletary play, my impression of him was that he was a high-speed human bowling ball flying down the alley, with Zips players falling around him like bowling pins. The more I saw him play, the more surprised I was that he didn't attract more whistles. Maybe the MAC refs have finally caught on to the whole action-reaction thing with him. There's no question that he's a strong and talented player. But he's like a bull in a china shop at the college level.

The "clutch" stats on 82games.com are interesting. Apparently they developed their own specific definition of "clutch" and then created a program to sort the raw NBA stats. Their definition isn't bad, but I can see where other people might want to define it a little differently. Haven't seen anything like this for NCAA games, but it seems like a fairly simple calculation program for an experienced programmer with a little free time.CORRECTION: There are several "clutch" stats categories for NCAA games on statsheet.com .

Statsheet.com has way more detailed stats than kenpom.com, but kenpom.com has some features statsheet.com does not. Just as no single statistical measurement has all the answers, neither does any one website. Would be nice to have enough time to be able to check out all the available data.

I've always gotten it. I've talked before on this forum about wanting to see McNees at shooting guard. I've pointed out problems I see with various Zips players, including McNees, and I haven't objected to others doing the same. I'll repeat what I said in my previous post to reinforce my exact feelings on the matter: Constructive criticism is good. Negative player bashing is not. What I see is that the Zips do not have a point guard who is so much above all the others that it's a no-brainer for both KD and fans. So KD has to weigh the strengths and weaknesses of all his point guards and primarily play the one who is the best overall option, weaknesses and all.If most long time fans on this board feel that the Zips are better if McNees is not at the point and KD doesn't, who should the rest of us believe has a better complete understanding of the total player skills situation and available options?Why do I think if another of the Zips' imperfect guards was primarily running the point that a bunch of fans here would be griping about that player's flaws and ragging on the coach to replace him with someone they think is better?Maybe I've been reading sports forums for too many years. What many fans say on sports forums is more predictable to me than what McNees does with the ball.

Time to play statistical games with the latest CBS Sports projection for the NCAA tournament:35% (23 of 65) of currently projected teams come from 74% (23 of 31) of D1 conferences65% (42 of 65) of currently projected teams come from 26% (8 of 31) of D1 conferencesThe only 8 multi-bid conferences are:8 Big East7 Big 126 ACC6 Atlantic 105 Big Ten5 SEC 3 Mountain West2 C-USAOmitting the Mountain West and C-USA, and only counting the "really major" conferences:57% (37 of 65) currently projected teams come from 19% (6 of 31) of D1 conferencesBut not all of the "really major" conferences are there. The Pac-10 is a 1-bid conference this year. How about such high aspirational conferences as the Missouri Valley and Colonial? Fugetaboutit!Whenever a system has been in place for awhile, the real players will soon figure out how to game the system and rise to the top, and the little guys will be left to fight for the scraps. A half dozen or so major conferences now have a stranglehold on the NCAA tournament, and a couple of different conferences break through each year with 2 or 3 bids.When I look at all of the above, I don't feel so bad about UA being in the MAC. Chances of getting a bid pretty much require being in one of the top half dozen conferences, being lucky enough to be in one of the lesser conferences that occasionally gets multiple bids, or winning the championship in one of many also-ran conferences. The Zips have to win the MAC championship, just as they'd have to win the conference championship of any other conference in which they could realistically have a chance to play.For all its problems, the MAC this year is no different from 22 other D1 conferences -- win the conference championship or put the team uniforms in cold storage.CBS Sports Link

I'd like to think that knowing this is KD's strategy would put an end to the endlessly repeated criticism of McNees for dribbling so much around mid court. If a player is following the directions of the coach, and the coach directs him to dribble around a lot, then the player cannot be legitimately blamed. It's a coaching decision, pure and simple.KD is NOT pleased with Steve going into mindless dribble mode. Steve did this last season and the coaches took time to coach him away from doing this. Steve has regressed. I managed to get KDto admit that dribbling for "x" number of seconds and then tossing up a chuck shot is a de facto turnover. Believe me, he was just as reluctant to admit it is a turnover as you are. Its a turnover whether it shows up in the stats or not. ..... I can understand pointing out when players make mistakes, although creating an all-new negative measurement ("de facto turnover") to pin on one specific player is a stretch. I've seen McNees and other Zips players get caught with the shot clock running down and have to chuck one up. Sometimes it's because the defense is just doing an outstanding job of covering all of our players, sometimes it's because the other Zips aren't trying hard enough to get open for a pass and sometimes it's the result of a miscalculation by the guy with the ball. Sure, I'll agree McNees has his share of those. He also has more opportunities to make mistakes, because the coach trusts him to handle the ball more than anyone else.All players make mistakes. McNees makes few enough mistakes that KD has the confidence to keep him in the game for more minutes than any other player. When KD starts pulling McNees for too much dribbling and too many "de facto turnovers," I'll start believing that McNees is guilty of having a problem as serious as a few of his most vocal critics post here. Until then, I'll continue to trust KD's judgment that McNees' positive qualities far outweigh his negative tendencies.I'm sorry, Dave, this problem is cronic with Steve. There were four half or OT ending times inthe OU game. Steve pulled this stunt TWICE. He simply does not read the defense and then take action.I will continue to complain about this trait until it is cured. It is a problem.This is a team. It is NOT the Steve McNees show. I would love for Steve to be the game hero. Inorder for that to happen Steve has to run the point; not put it all on his shoulders. That forgotten assist is just as important as the winning shot. Oh, BTW, Steve did not throw an errant pass in Darryl Roberts direction. Darryl tripped over Chris McKnight's leg as he was coming around Chris. Darryl was not there to catch the ball. It was NOTany sort of a failure on Steve's part. This play occurred right in front of me. Deduct one turnover.Right. There was a discussion of the Roberts trip and McNees pass out of bounds in another thread.I appreciate the way you have just specifically focused in a constructive way on one of McNees' weaker areas that could stand improvement. I don't care so much for the way some fans exaggerate a player's problems out of proportion and dump all over them. Constructive criticism is good. Negative player bashing is not. The Zips deserve better from their fans.Personally, I'd like to see more variety from McNees. I'd like to see him drive to the basket more often and either pull up for the short jumper, go in for the layup or pass to the open man. Make something happen more often instead of waiting so much for something to happen. I think he's a little too predictable to the defense in spending too much time way outside. He does a great job of protecting the ball, but a little more risk might produce a lot more reward. McNees does a good job, but a few little changes could make him an even better point. It's up to the coaches to give McNees the right instruction, for McNees to learn and execute properly and for the rest of the players to be in the right positions at the right times.

To be effective, all playing time complaints should be addressed directly to KD. He's the only one who can do anything about it.

Nice to see all of the moderators paying attention.

I'd like to think that knowing this is KD's strategy would put an end to the endlessly repeated criticism of McNees for dribbling so much around mid court. If a player is following the directions of the coach, and the coach directs him to dribble around a lot, then the player cannot be legitimately blamed. It's a coaching decision, pure and simple.KD is NOT pleased with Steve going into mindless dribble mode. Steve did this last season and the coaches took time to coach him away from doing this. Steve has regressed. I managed to get KDto admit that dribbling for "x" number of seconds and then tossing up a chuck shot is a de facto turnover. Believe me, he was just as reluctant to admit it is a turnover as you are. Its a turnover whether it shows up in the stats or not. ..... I can understand pointing out when players make mistakes, although creating an all-new negative measurement ("de facto turnover") to pin on one specific player is a stretch. I've seen McNees and other Zips players get caught with the shot clock running down and have to chuck one up. Sometimes it's because the defense is just doing an outstanding job of covering all of our players, sometimes it's because the other Zips aren't trying hard enough to get open for a pass and sometimes it's the result of a miscalculation by the guy with the ball. Sure, I'll agree McNees has his share of those. He also has more opportunities to make mistakes, because the coach trusts him to handle the ball more than anyone else.All players make mistakes. McNees makes few enough mistakes that KD has the confidence to keep him in the game for more minutes than any other player. When KD starts pulling McNees for too much dribbling and too many "de facto turnovers," I'll start believing that McNees is guilty of having a problem as serious as a few of his most vocal critics post here. Until then, I'll continue to trust KD's judgment that McNees' positive qualities far outweigh his negative tendencies.

The Pomeroy site is heaven for stats freaks. It really isn't so weird if you take the time to read the explanations for all of the various stats.For example, percentage of shots taken refers to the percentage of a team's total number of field goal attempts any single player takes. B. McKnight was 6th in the nation in this category prior to sitting out a game, which dropped him to 10th in the nation. Looks like he's on his way back up. That's the role he has been assigned by KD, who often refers to him as the team's best shooter.McNees is considered a "role player" in the % of possessions used category because of his "usage" in 16-20% of the Zips' possessions. It helps to understand the following definition:Usage (% of possessions used) -- This describes a player’s role in the offense, by explaining how many of his team’s possessions a player is personally responsible for ending while he is on the floor.That's why B. McKnight is classified as a go-to guy (>28% of possessions used), C. McKnight is a major contributor (24-28% of possessions used), and Hitchens, Cvetinovic and Marshall are all considered signifcant contributors (20-24%). They are all personally responsible for ending more team posessions than McNees while they are on the floor.Effective field goal percentage (eFG%) differs from conventional field goal percentage by taking into account the extra value of a made 3-pointer (FGM + 0.5*3PM) / FGA. McNees doesn't have a high national rating in this stat, but his rating is about average for the Zips.The Pomoeroy stats are great to check if you have a "feeling" about a player's (or team's) performance in any particular area and want to get a reality check on whether your eyes and mind are playing tricks on you.Explanation of Pomeroy Stats

Zeke has now averaged enough minutes per game (minimum 40% minutes played to qualify) to be listed among the country's D1 block percentage leaders. Block percentage is an estimate of the percentage of opponent 2-point field goal attempts blocked by the player while he was on the floor.Last week Zeke would have been ranked 16th if he'd been qualified. His playing time over the past couple of games has pushed him onto the official list, and he debuts at #12 in the country and closing fast on the top 10.If he continues to move up, he could break into the top 10 before his freshman season is over. It's hard to imagine how high he might go up in this important stat over the next few years, and how many extra games the Zips will win due to blocks and altered shots.Block Percentage Leaders