45% on our average number of 3s per game is about 30 pts. 46% is our season average, which equates to ~48 pts based on our average number of FG attempts per game. That's 78 pts before free throws. 45% from 3 is more realistic (albeit hot shooting), and 78 pts is a lot before free throws, and is already 2 more pts than UCLA averages per game. Above 40% from 3, and we're in the game until the final possessions. 45%+ and we win.
Also, because I really want to use this GIF...