wadszip

Kwan needs to get his stroke back. This team is as mediocre as the rest of the MAC when he's slumping ... and he's in a major slump right now.

Yesterday, Zips nearly got some help as St. Peter's lost @Monmouth in OT and Dartmouth lost a close game @Princeton. Overall, though, just 1-4 in the games I figured would help the Zips most (Buffalo); though two of those losses CMU over WMU and Rhode Island over Davidson weren't bad since Akron had also beaten CMU (who is higher ranked than WMU anyway) and Davidson's slim at-large chances are now all but over. Today, there are a ton of games with implications: 1. Akron over Ohio* (Duh) 2. Virginia over Syracuse* (Virginia's safely in; Cuse squarely on the bubble) 3. Georgetown* over Seton Hall (two bubble teams in an elimination game; going with the home team). 4. Duquesne over Dayton* (Dayton is likely in, but a loss here could put them back on the bubble). 5. Texas over TCU* (TCU loss won't eliminate them, but would sink them to 4-6 in Big 12). 6. Rutgers over Penn State* (Loss to Rutgers ends PSU's slim at-large hopes). 7. Duke over Pittsburgh* (Duke is in; loss puts nail in Pitt's slim at-large hopes). 8. Green Bay* over Valparaiso (Gotta root against the other mid-majors with at-large chances). 9. South Carolina* over Georgia (South Carolina is likely in; Georgia hanging on to the bubble). 10. Kansas* over Iowa State (Both teams probably in, but ISU back on bubble with loss.) 11. Campbell over Winthrop* (See Valpo) 12. American* over Lehigh (Akron beat American) 13. DePaul* over Marquette (Loss and Marquette barely hanging on to bubble) 14. Vanderbilt* over Mississippi (Two teams barely hanging on to bubble; going home team). 15. North Carolina State* over Miami (Miami on bubble now, but NCSU win could get them back in picture; still Zips need bubble soft as possible). 16. Wake Forest* over Georgia Tech (See NCSU-Miami) 17. Baylor* over Kansas State (Baylor is in, Kansas State squarely on bubble) 18. Creighton* over Xavier (Both in, but Creighton wins help Akron) 19. Mississippi State* over Tennessee (See Vanderbilt-Mississippi) 20. Kent State over Miami (Ohio)* (not going to be heartbroken if Kent loses, but in Zips best interest they win). 21. Illinois* over Minnesota (See NCSU-Miami) 22. Cincinnati* over Connecticut (Cincy is in; UConn not on bubble, but are 5-4 in AAC play, win here makes them team to monitor) 23. Bowing Green* over Toledo (I guess this one is a toss-up). 24. VCU over St. Bonaventure* (I'm assuming VCU is in; loss puts St. Bonaventure on life support for at-large). 25. Air Force* over Wyoming (Rooting for all Akron's non-conference opponents) 26. Stanford* over Utah (Utah on the bubble; Stanford not on even with a win) 27. Mercer* over Wofford 28. Eastern Michigan over Northern Illinois* (Like Kent, Buffalo and Ohio, best interest for at-large to root for EMU to keep winning) 29. Georgia Southern* over Louisiana Monroe 30. West Virgnia* over Oklahoma State (WVU in; Okie State on the bubble) 31. Central Florida* over Memphis (See NCSU-Miami) 32. Western Carolina over Chattanooga (see Valpo) 33. Elon over Charleston* (see Valpo) 34. Texas State over UT Arlington* (see Valpo) 35. Missouri* over Arkansas (Arkansas squarely on bubble with a loss) 36. Ohio State over Michigan* (see NCSU-Miami) 37. San Diego* over St. Mary's (I have St. Mary's in, but a couple unexpected losses could make it interesting for them) 38. Oklahoma over Texas Tech* (loss really hurts Tech's bubble chances) 39. SMU over Tulsa* (SMU in; would end Tulsa's slim at-large hopes) 40. Radford over Liberty* 41. George Mason* over LaSalle (would end LaSalle's slim at-large hopes) 42. Youngstown State* over Detroit 43. Hartford* over Vermont (see Valpo) 44. Jacksonville* over Florida Gulf Coast (see Valpo) 45. Harvard* over Princeton (see Valpo) 46. Marshall over Lousiana Tech* (Not only have Zips beaten Marshall, but LaTech still has slim at-large hopes) 47. Delaware over UNC Wilmington* (see Valpo) 48. Washington State* over USC (USC probably in, but this would be bad loss) 49. Illinois State over Wichita State* (This is a tossup, but at this point may be better to root against WSU) 50. UTEP* over Middle Tennessee (see Valpo) 51. Villanova* over St. John's (Nova in; St. John's still hanging on bubble) 52. Auburn over Alabama* (Alabama hanging onto bubble) 55. Chicago State over New Mexico State* (see Valpo) 56. Gonzaga* over Santa Clara 57. UC Irvine over Long Beach State*

Part of it may be conditioning, though he does seem to generally shoot better at the end of games (sans that Buffalo 1-and-1). Didn't he nail 4 in a row in the EMU game down the stretch? I'm more in the boat thinking it's in his head. His foul shooting is an enigma because some of his shots look so effortless (it seems like he either swishes or bricks them). Plus, he had that stretch last year where he was automatic for a 3-4 game stretch ... I think starting with that UC-Santa Barbara game where he was something like 17 for 20. Then he hurt his ankle and wasn't the same and hasn't been able to get back to that level this year. I think he just needs one of those games where he goes nuts from the line (like he had last year) and he will be able to carry that momentum over. Tomorrow would be a nice sport for that to happen.

I'm going to contradict myself from what I just posted on the MAC CSNbbs board (in that Akron shouldn't worry about an at-large). But with that said, now that we're past the halfway point of the league slate, figured I would update a daily "what needs to happen to maximize the Zips' chances at an at-large." I'll try to do this daily until the it becomes moot (which could be as soon as tomorrow, unfortunately). Anyway, not a huge slate of games, but here is what, IMO, we want to see happen in a perfect world. * home team 1. Western Michigan over Central Michigan* (Played WMU twice, CMU once; so probably better for WMU to win, though this one isn't a big deal either way) 2. St. Peter's over Monmouth* (unlikely, but Monmouth still has some at-large hopes) 3. Davidson* over Rhode Island (two teams technically still around in a solid A10 for an at-large; home win for Davidson means less than a RI road win). 4. Dartmouth over Princeton* (unlikely, Princeton is ranked around 80 in KenPom, no idea how, so technically still in the at-large conversation) 5. Buffalo over Ball State* (Not only do we play Buffalo twice, but a BSU loss keeps them 3 down, regardless of the outcome Saturday against OU).

Yeah, the one were Big Dog acted like he was shooting. I was thinking of the one after that. Still, that one maybe wouldn't have been as bad if he actually did shoot the ball, lol. He knew exactly what NIU was doing. Still, I do agree, that 18-foot lob near the baseline isn't exactly the play you draw up when you're in the one-and-one and Big Dog is getting the pass. That should've been where they tried to get something to Ivey going to the rim.

I actually thought that was a great play (I was expecting to see a lob to a cutting Ivey, which has worked this year). The fact that Maric was on Robotham made it a smart move ... Big Dog just needed to finish that bunny.

Yeah, happy to wrong on that, for sure.

I'm happy to be dead wrong on this defense. Still want to see more of that for 40 minutes, but a gutty comeback. Hats off.

The problem is that we always believe that nobody will continue to shoot as well as they do against this defense. While 75 percent from three on that many attempts won't happen, it doesn't need to happen. Bottom line, it seems like every game, it's "well, we got their best shooting day." At what point does that not become a surprise?

Technically, I guess they are still in this, but NIU is going to at least get 35 points in the second half. Meaning if the Zips put up 50, they "could" come back.

BTW, we're getting a glimpse of how bad this team will be next year, too.

Well, this is embarrassing. This one is going to get ugly.

Those mythical MAC recruiting championships really did wonders during the J.D. Brookhart era. I also find it ironic that in one post you make a snarky comment about the local guys that are being brought in, and then right above you talk about this recruiting analyst who says Akron is the best job in the MAC partly due to its local "recruiting area." It's easy to talk about out-recruiting Toledo and Northern Illinois and it's another thing to actually do it. Toledo only has 13 losing seasons in the past 50 years; Akron has 12 ... since 2000. However, NIU is a program to look at and see how it is possible to turn things around. It's not like the Huskies were setting college football on fire before breaking through with a winning record in 2000 under Joe Novak. Since then, they've been to 10 bowl games, including an Orange Bowl (and went 10-2 in 2003 and didn't make a bowl.). They have now been a consistent league title contender. Where is the parallel between NIU and Akron? This past year was the Zips' 30th season as an FBS program. Let's look at where NIU was in the 30 seasons prior to 2000 (when Novak finally had his first winning season at 6-5): Overall: 130-195-5 Winning %: .393 Winning seasons: 7 League titles: 1 Bowl appearances: 1 And Akron's 30-year FBS history: Overall: 132-211-3 Winning%: .381 Winning seasons: 8 League titles: 1 Bowl appearances: 2 Looks nearly identical. I'll take it one step further. Novak was hired at NIU in 1996, taking over a program that had went 11-22 the three previous seasons. Novak's record in his first four years was 8-36 (.190). He broke through in year five with that 6-5 record in 2000 and followed it up with another 6-5 record in 2001, making his record at that time 20-46 (.303). It wasn't until year seven when they finally broke through for an 8-4 season; then followed it up with seasons of 10-2 and 9-3, which got the ball rolling for NIU's current success (though Novak did take a step back after that, going 7-6, 7-6 and then 2-10 where he was let go after 11 seasons.) Terry Bowden took over in 2012 and inherited a team that had gone just 5-31 the previous three seasons (so he inherited a worse program than the bad one Novak did at NIU). Bowden, however, broke through with a winning record in year 4 ... overall record first four years was 19-30 (.387). Yes, the team took a step back this year after the season-ending collapse, but his five year record of 23-37 (.383) is still better than Novak's after five years at NIU ... 14-41 (.254). And as I mentioned, it wasn't until year 7 until Novak was able to put together an 8-win season. This is year 6 for Bowden. My point is building a bad program into a good program takes time and it is definitely a building process. I think people need to have patience and see how the next couple of years play out (and Bowden has two years left on his contract). Plus, I think we are finally seeing him begin to build something with substance with this recruiting class (trying to lock up as much local talent ... you know since even the OSU recruiting guy says it's the best in the MAC footprint). I'll end with this analogy: Bowden bought a dilapidated property in a neighborhood that has some promise; let's say Highland Square. Is it an elite area like Hudson (Big Ten/Ohio State), no. But it has enough going for it and enough character to make it up and coming. It also happens to be right next to a horrible neighborhood, Lane-Wooster (Kent ... lol). The first five years have been focused on making this property at least livable (replacing the copper pipes that were stolen, putting in a working furnace/hot-water heater, etc.). Still, the foundation needs work before it really becomes a decent place. That's where we are now with trying to secure the local talent. After that, hopefully comes the cosmetic stuff (redoing the bathroom/kitchen, buffing the hard-wood floors) that allows the place to reach its full potential. That's when, hopefully, you'll see local NEO talent who has offers from the top MAC schools and the lower to mid-tier Big Ten schools, begin to stay home; along with continuing to move up a couple of notches in places like Florida from getting 7th and 8th tier to the state's 5th and 6th tier talent.

Don't ask me why, but I've been watching this WMU-Ball State game. WMU is the most dreadful offensive basketball team I've seen all year long (and I've actually seen them four times ... Akron x2, Buffalo, Ball State. It's an embarrassment that Akron gave up 80 to them on Tuesday. They missed something like 17 shots in a row in the second half against Buffalo. Today, they made one field goal in the final 7:30 in the first half. In that stretch, they had nearly as many turnovers (4) as points (5). Yet, that same team carved up the Zips defense for 30 minutes.

I like outside the box thinking, but, IMO, a proposal like that is way too unrealistic. For one, like you said, you're probably talking hundreds of millions ... Why spend that to redo a perfectly fine football facility to make it into multi-purpose one, when you could build a perfectly fine state-of-the-art basketball arena for a fraction of the price? As to your ideas: 1. Akron won't host NCAA games, not when the NBA Quicken Loans Arena is right up the road ... and it's an arena that is about to get a $140 million renovation. P.S. I know the CSU Convocation Center has hosted first-round tourney games in the past, but that's the past. If the tourney is coming to NEO, it's coming to the Q. 2. The MAC football championship isn't moving from Detroit (already a domed NFL stadium) to Akron. 3. The MAC basketball tournament isn't moving from Quicken Loans Arena (especially once the renovation is done). 4. If a bowl game comes to NEO, it's going to Canton (and backed by the Pro Football Hall of Fame) in the new 20,000 seat stadium they are building on the old Fawcett Stadium site. 5. NFL preseason games are always played at a team's NFL stadium. They force season ticket holders to pay regular season prices for those, meaning they aren't moving. 6. NBA preseason games have been held at the JAR (and at the Canton Civic Center, a much more shitty facility than the JAR). No need for a domed InfoCision to attract "a game" when new basketball arena could land one of those a year. 7. Concerts are a possibility, but very few acts can justify a stadium; and those who can will, again, likely will go to Cleveland (either Progressive Field or FirstEnergy Stadium). Plus, in the summer months, Blossom can hold 20,000.

This really isn't anything new. Maybe using KenPom and Sagarin are "newish," but those rankings have long surpassed RPI by the committee, even if it wasn't admitted until now. RPI hasn't been a realistic metric since the mid-to-late 2000s when the MVC figured out how to completely game that system. I'll have to look more into it to say for sure, but at least for KenPom, I actually think certain leagues are learning how to game those rankings (looking at the Southern Conference).

I know ESPN doesn't have near the pull in hoops as it does football, but if ESPN's SOR (strength of record) metric is used, Akron is in decent shape. The Zips are ranked No. 38 there. Here is the explanation of all of ESPN's rankings, including of "SOR". "The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily." I say just make all this moot and win in Cleveland.

In fairness, the gap between Villanova and Marquette is a lot smaller than Akron and Western Michigan. But yeah, you can never complain about any road win, but I think you can pick a part some flaws. Edit: That Marquette-Nova game was at Marquette, btw. However, Marquette did just beat Creighton on the road Saturday.

And on the brightest side, the Zips are 12 minutes away from having a 3-game lead over everybody in the league just seven games into league play. That, I imagine, has never happened before.

I can understand that philosophy, somewhat, when you are the less talented team. But this team needs to put their foots on people's necks at some point. It's something they haven't done all season long. What looked like was finally going to be the game they put everything together, turns into another meh win. Oh well, 7-0 is 7-0.

Since it's part of a double-header must be why it is (was) showing TBA. I thought there was always one Friday game for TV, but still looks like every game is set for Saturday this week. It seems like every Kent game ends up on Friday night, so probably a good chance of that.

Looked at the MAC site and the Ball State game is listed as being aired on ASN, so probably why the early start. On a Tuesday, that will kill attendance. Anybody hear anything on the Buffalo game? On the MAC site, it's still showing Saturday, but it's the only game with a TBA time. I'm guessing it's going to be moved to Friday for TV, which would hardly be a shock. The Zips have played just two Saturday league home games since the start of last year (Miami, BG, both last year).

30-4 would get an at-large. My thoughts are, it's not even worth thinking about that at this time. The odds of it happening are easily less than 1 percent.

I'll do an update of my numbers probably sometime tomorrow from this weekend. But just glancing, it looks like the MAC now has 5 top 100 wins: Kent (Texas), Akron (Ohio), EMU (Ohio), Ohio (Georgia Tech) and Toledo (Loyola). Eastern just fell out and is at 102 (meaning Akron and Buffalo close to regaining another). In the top 150, as of now, looks like the MAC is down to 11 ... with Akron still holding five of them: Ohio (97), EMU (102), Marshall (121), Georgia Southern (134) and UC-Irvine (135). So now the Zips own 45 percent of the league's top 150 wins. Again, these numbers do not put Akron on the at-large radar at this time, but it still shows how much separation, IMO, Akron has put between itself and the rest of the league. And just by generally knowing how the KenPom rankings work, the YSU game is an anchor this team won't recover from. If the Zips would've won that game, they would probably be ranked somewhere in the 50s, putting them up there with teams like Middle Tennessee and UNC-Wilmington, who both have legit at-large arguments at this time. That loss was probably a 25-spot drop. .. KenPom hammers teams for horrible losses like that way more than RPI.

If you count the Adrian game, they can conceivably finish the regular season 28-3. With wins in the MAC quarters and semis and a loss in the finals and they would be 30-4. If you only count D1 games, then 29-4 is the best they could do without winning the MAC.