2013 Bracketbuster

[wadszip]

The Bracketbusters matchups are still about three weeks away from being announced, but from looking at the teams involved, it doesn't look like the Zips are going to get the type of big-time opponent we were hoping for. Here are the teams ranked in the top 100 on the home side and visiting side (per the current Pomeroy rankings:

Home

1. Belmont (21)

2. Wichita State (27)

3. Akron (37)

4. St. Mary's (53)

5. Valparaiso (75)

6. Indiana State (82)

7. Northern Iowa (89)

8. Davidson (90)

Away

1. Creighton (12)

2. North Dakota State (50)

3. Stephen F. Austin (55)

4. Denver (61)

5. Ohio (65)

6. Weber State (71)

7. Illinois State (76)

8. Detroit (87)

I was hoping to land Wichita State (since Creighton is probably out of the question since the two teams had already played this year stemming from an earlier Bracketbuster matchup), but was disappointed to see that the Shockers are also a home team this year. Outside of Wichita State and Belmont (who are both on the home side) and Creighton (not likely to happen), the choices become pretty slim.

Right now, it's very likely that Creighton-Belmont will be the marquee matchup. Both are top 25 in both Pomeroy and RPI, and both have some name recognition. After that, Wichita State and St. Mary's are probably the next two "biggest names" and are both also on the home side. Even decent MVC schools Indiana State and Northern Iowa are at home (more schools to cross off). Then, other premier mid-majors like Lehigh, Bucknell, Utah State, Louisiana Tech aren't competing. What you have left are schools like North Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin, Denver, Weber State and Illinois State. (Ohio, which I can see landing a marquee matchup against St. Mary's) is off the table, and so too is Detroit (since the two already played).

Really, whatever matchup the Zips get, doesn't do much to turn the needle, though a couple of potentially decent matchups.

Here's a look at those teams:

North Dakota State (15-3, 6-0): Has two non division I wins; two of the losses were @ Indiana (87-61) and @ Minnesota (70-57). Other loss was @Green Bay (74-59). Their best non-conference win, however, may be an 83-80 OT win on a neutral court vs. Youngstown State ... the same YSU team that lost by 41 the other night at Detroit. They did beat conference foe South Dakota State (65-62) at home, which would be their best overall win.

Stephen F. Austin (14-1, 5-0): Has four non-Division I wins, but has a solid road win @Oklahoma (56-55) and a decent road win @Tulsa (67-51). The lone loss was @Texas A&M (62-54). Nothing else is of any significance (well, they did just win by 11 at Oral Roberts, but its not the same Oral Roberts team the Zips saw last year). This matchup has some potential, and is way better than North Dakota State.

Denver (9-7, 5-1): This doesn't do anything, and frankly, not sure how they are rated this high in the Pomeroy rankings. Their best win is at home against Mercer (69-40). The losses were @Iona, vs. Cal, vs. Colorado State, @Southern Miss, @Stanford, @Wyoming and @Louisiana Tech, so I will give them credit for the schedule, though the closest of those losses was seven points @Iona. They are 5-1 in the WAC, but have played the bottom feeders outside of La. Tech. I'll pass.

Weber State (10-3, 5-0): Has a quality win @Dayton (62-61) and losses were @San Jose State (68-67 OT), @Utah State (65-55) and vs. BYU (68-58). Like Denver, Weber State hasn't played any of the better teams in the Big Sky (which basically means they haven't played Montana yet, and won't play themselves). Weber State, though, does have a little name recognition for those of us 30-and-older, who remember Harold "The Show" Areceneaux single-handily pulling off one of the greatest tournament upsets when he scorched North Carolina for 36 points in a 3-14 upset in 1999. They also knocked off a No. 3 seeded Michigan State team a couple years prior to that. Unfortunately, the name Harold Areceneaux is no different than Mouse McFradden or Bryce Drew at this point.

Illinois State (9-8, 0-5): This is a solid team, despite the record. This game wouldn't do anything to impress the tourney committee (though is that really even worth thinking about at this point?), but could be another good test leading into the MAC homestretch. The non-conference losses are vs. Northwestern (72-69 OT) on a neutral court, @Louisville (69-66), vs. Wyoming (81-67). The league losses include two excusable ones @Indiana State (77-75) and vs. Creighton (79-72). Unfortunately, the other three MVC losses were too mid-to-low tier teams vs. Northern Iowa, vs. Drake and @Missouri State. The best non-conference win, like Weber State, was @Dayton (74-73). Like Weber State, it was a one-point win. Illinois State also won @Drexel in overtime (86-84). But Can't did also beat that disappointment of a Drexel team in overtime (66-62), so that may not be saying much (not even considering Drexel is 5-11). But Illinois State also beat Western Michigan by 22 points at home (just like Akron), so they must be just as good. The last part is tounge-and-cheek, but even with all that said, I think I'd take Illinois State over the rest of the options (minus Stephen F. Austin). Plus, it could be a precurser to a future MAC foe, if the Illinois State football fans get their wish.

Overall, I'd rank the options like this:

1. Stephen F. Austin

2. Illinois State

3. Weber State

4. North Dakota State

5. Denver

None do much, unfortunately. And I think Ken Pomeroy is on to something with his "luck" factor counted in his rankings. Of course, this is the year Akron has its most legitimate shot at playing in a marquee bracketbuster game, and do to bad luck, it's not going to be any better than in the past (and actually worse.) At least we had gotten VCU and Creighton in the past.

Finally, and maybe it was even on here, that I read that ESPN is no longer going to do the Bracketbusters (at least in its current form) after this year. That's actually not a bad thing, per say. Having set home and away teams makes it tough to get premier matchups. My solution would be a 4-game, one-day event (all at the same neutral court) involving the top 8 mid-major programs in that given year (make it truly prestigious). Play it in some place like St. Louis or Kansas City (some place in the middle of the country). That would allow for members of the selection committee (and NBA scouts) to see all the top mid-majors in one venue, in one day, against quality competition.

For example, this year, you could have (and I'll include teams that aren't participating)

1. Creighton

2. Wichita State

3. Belmont

4. Akron

5. Bucknell

6. St. Mary's

7. Utah State

8. Lehigh (or Ohio, Stephen F. Austin, Middle Tennessee State, etc.)

You could then have:

noon: Belmont-Lehigh

3 p.m.: Bucknell-St. Mary's

6 p.m.: Akron-Wichita State

9 p.m.: Creighton-Utah State

Even if this is on ESPNU, you start the day off with the smaller schools that aren't likely to draw as much audience and lead into the games against the bigger state schools (or in Creighton's case, being Creighton). Belmont-Lehigh, both being eastern schools tipping at noon should still draw decent numbers because both are good teams. Then You'd have an East-vs. West matchup in Bucknell vs. St. Mary's (since the 3 p.m. start would be noon on the West Coast, it could also draw decent numbers). Then you get into prime-time with Akron-Wichita State (two larger, state schools in decent-sized markets). Again should pull decent numbers. Then finishing in prime time with your biggest name school vs. another that should draw well in Utah State, again being a larger state school that is in the western part of the country (true primetime there) should provide a decent audience. Will any of these matchups draw UNC-Duke type numbers, no. But should do well enough to outdraw a game between two middle-of-the pack Big 12 or SEC schools.

Of course, that is just an example for this year, but its something that could be tweaked depending on the year and the teams involved. Actually, a setup like this would benefit Akron (or Cleveland State or Can't if deserving) more than most teams, since the Cleveland-Akron TV market is the largest in the country without a direct high-major school located within it. Due to pure population, it would make any of those schools attractive for this type of event.

[GoZips]

wadszip, thank you for the extensive research. I concur, the pickings seem slim to none for the Zips to gain notoriety

or what ever else that could be beneficial.

It is doubtful that the Pomeroy System will be used to select match ups. Seems to me that the Real-RPI was used in the past.

[Dr Z]

Nice job WZ.

[RootforRoo44]

Probably the best post of the year so far Wadszip...but now you've got me bummed out. I didn't realize how weak our potential opponents are shaping up to be this year.

Well maybe we'll finally have a Bracketbuster game we'll almost surely win.

[akzipper]

Probably the best post of the year so far Wadszip...but now you've got me bummed out. I didn't realize how weak our potential opponents are shaping up to be this year.

Well maybe we'll finally have a Bracketbuster game we'll almost surely win.

Honest question, when is the last time we won a Bracketbuster? I feel like we've been about 1-5 over the past 6 or something like that. Maybe a win over Creighton a few years ago?

[ZachTheZip]

Let's try that again, only this time using the RPI:

Home:

Wichita State (17)

Belmont (30)

Indiana State (36)

Murray State (74)

Akron (75)

Oral Roberts (84)

Davidson (86)

Long Beach State (92)

Away:

Creighton (21)

Stephen F Austin (57)

North Dakota State (58)

Northwestern State (64)

Saint Mary's (77)

Detroit (80)

South Dakota State (85)

Eastern Kentucky (95)

The top home teams are much better than the road teams this year. Nobody's going to get a great match-up as a home team.

We'll probably end up with SDSU or EKU.

[wadszip]

wadszip, thank you for the extensive research. I concur, the pickings seem slim to none for the Zips to gain notoriety

or what ever else that could be beneficial.

It is doubtful that the Pomeroy System will be used to select match ups. Seems to me that the Real-RPI was used in the past.

Thanks for the kudos (and Dr. Z and Root4Roo). Yeah, it seems that RPI is considered in the matchups, unlike the rating systems like Pomeroy and Sagarin, though it doesn't seem to be based strictly on RPI. IIR, the year we got Creighton, the Zips RPI was lower than several schools, but still got one of the marquee games. Seems like it is based half on RPI/half on name recognition.

Also, I was just using Pomeroy as a guide since I think it's a better system to rank teams than RPI. It's actually scary to think that, if based on RPI, the Zips may end up with a Western Michigan-type opponent, in being one that has a grossly over-inflated RPI. Western is still No. 83 in RPI (Akron is 77 and Ohio is 157).

[wadszip]

Honest question, when is the last time we won a Bracketbuster? I feel like we've been about 1-5 over the past 6 or something like that. Maybe a win over Creighton a few years ago?

Yes, it was the Creighton game. Here is Akron's history

04: 82-78 (OT) loss vs. Drake

05: 74-68 win vs. Niagara

06: 88-61 loss at Nevada

07: 74-57 win vs. Austin Peay

08: 57-52 loss vs. VCU

09: 76-66 loss at Valpariaso

10: 70-53 loss at VCU

11: 76-67 win vs. Creighton

12: 67-61 loss at Oral Roberts

Overall, the Zips are 3-6, which isn't good. On the bright side, Akron has had some nice opponents in this event, especially recently.

[zippy5]

Let's try that again, only this time using the RPI:

Home:

Wichita State (17)

Belmont (30)

Indiana State (36)

Murray State (74)

Akron (75)

Oral Roberts (84)

Davidson (86)

Long Beach State (92)

Away:

Creighton (21)

Stephen F Austin (57)

North Dakota State (58)

Northwestern State (64)

Saint Mary's (77)

Detroit (80)

South Dakota State (85)

Eastern Kentucky (95)

The top home teams are much better than the road teams this year. Nobody's going to get a great match-up as a home team.

We'll probably end up with SDSU or EKU.

Saint Mary's looks like a realistic, and intriguing possibility.

[wadszip]

Saint Mary's looks like a realistic, and intriguing possibility.

St. Mary's is also a home team, according to:

http://espnbracketbusters.com/site/compone...t/article?id=15

[zippy5]

St. Mary's is also a home team, according to:

http://espnbracketbusters.com/site/compone...t/article?id=15

ah that's what I get for relying on a post from zach

[ZachTheZip]

St. Mary's is also a home team, according to:

http://espnbracketbusters.com/site/compone...t/article?id=15

Indeed they are! That's what I get for posting in a hurry.

That only hurts the chances of getting a good opponent even more.

There's no doubt that if we keep winning we'll get a TV game.

[Dave in Green]

BracketBusters just isn't what it used to be, which is probably why it's going away in its present form after this year. The departure of previous big names such as VCU and Butler reduces the odds of drawing a name opponent, and it's hard for Zips fans to get excited about any team they're likely to draw. Hosting a lower-ranked team, there's not much to be gained by the Zips in BracketBusters this time around. They just have to take care of business and avoid an upset. But it will still be a nice break from the steady diet of MAC teams at that time of the season.

[ZachTheZip]

An update on the top 8 home and away teams, using the bbstate.com RPI ratings.

Home:

Wichita State (13)

Belmont (23)

Indiana State (44)

Saint Mary's (63)

Akron (65)

Northern Iowa (79)

Long Beach State (86)

Oral Roberts (89)

Away:

Creighton (24)

North Dakota State (55)

Stephen F Austin (69)

South Dakota State (70)

Eastern Kentucky (74)

Detroit (87)

Evansville (98)

Pacific (106)

The selection for road teams is awful compared to the home teams. In all likelyhood, we're going to get stuck with EKU or Evansville.

[Dave in Green]

On RPI alone, there's plenty of room for movement up and down, so the Zips could end up drawing North Dakota State, Stephen F Austin, South Dakota State or Eastern Kentucky. There are no big-name options available, so we just have to hope to draw the highest-ranked team and beat them soundly to gain a small point or two in the national conversation.

[ZachTheZip]

On RPI alone, there's plenty of room for movement up and down, so the Zips could end up drawing North Dakota State, Stephen F Austin, South Dakota State or Eastern Kentucky. There are no big-name options available, so we just have to hope to draw the highest-ranked team and beat them soundly to gain a small point or two in the national conversation.

Match-ups are announced on Jan 28th. One week doesn't allow for too much movement.

[wadszip]

Zach, I know you pointed out that these matchups aren't based on Pomeroy rankings as I used in my initial post. I understand that, but was using those just because I think he has the most accurate ranking system out there. However, it's also wrong to base the matchups strictly off of RPI. True, RPI has been a better guide than any of the other ranking systems, but as we've seen in the past, schools can move up or down a slot or two from where they "should" be. IIRC, some Oral Roberts fans were upset (on their message board) that they drew Akron a year ago. ORU was in the top 50 in RPI and Akron was in the 70s, but jumped a couple schools with higher RPIs into that matchup.

BTW, I see that ESPN has their own set of ratings ... Basketball Power Index (BPI) ... which looks to be more RPI like, only it takes into account games missed by key players. Anyway, since ESPN puts on the Bracketbusters, this may be the best gauge to determine the matchups. However, since ESPN is going to try to mix the best teams that will draw the largest audiences, they probably will sway from their own rating system if they think a "lesser" matchup can draw better TV numbers.

With that said, here are the top-100 ranked home and away teams based on BPI (and all these teams should be a part of the nine TV games)

Home

13. Wichita State

37. Belmont

49. Akron

51. St. Mary's

76. Indiana State

78. Valparaiso

82. Northern Iowa

Away

12. Creighton

59. North Dakota State

72. Denver

79. Weber State

84. Illinois State

86. Ohio

92. Detroit

98. Murray State

Based on this BPI ESPN system (and from a TV perspective), I think if you had to choose today, the games would be:

1. Creighton-Belmont: No-brainer in the "marquee" 8 p.m. ESPN2 Saturday time slot.

2. Wichita State-Ohio: Ohio will be an example of a team jumping up based on where they are ranked. I don't see anyway ESPN turns away a game between a current top 25 team and one that made the Sweet 16 last year, that returned everybody off that team and is playing good basketball. This is a game made for the 7 p.m. Friday night ESPN2 slot. Two compelling teams that won't face much competition on a prime-time Friday for viewership. Yes, OU will make out better than Akron in this event, albeit being on the road.

3. Akron-North Dakota State: This would actually be the best scenario for Akron based off of rankings. TV numbers probably won't be that high, but Akron does have appeal regardless of matchup being in a top 15 market and having the Zeke and "Keith Dambrot coached LeBron" angles that they can (and will) shove down our throats. Still a game that could land the 6 p.m. Saturday ESPN2/ESPNU slot.

4. St. Mary's-Denver: You have two West Coast teams based in huge markets ... St. Mary's (Bay Area) and Denver (Denver). Seems like a natural fit, and a TV game that can draw numbers out West if in a later TV time slot. This has Saturday ESPN2 10 p.m. written all over it.

5. Indiana State-Detroit: Detroit will get a boost due to its market size. This could be the 4 p.m. ESPN2/ESPNU Saturday matchup.

6. Valparaiso-Murray State: The matchup makes sense based on what's left, and be one of the earlier Saturday ESPU games ... probably the 1 p.m. slot.

7. Northern Iowa-Weber State: Weber gets the "shaft" based on where it is ranked on the BPI list, but putting them against a team in the Central time zone makes sense in the 9 p.m. Friday time slot.

This leaves Illinois State out in the cold for teams ranked in the top 100, and while a decent team with a crappy conference record, still may land a TV game (since there is nine of them). Same with Eastern Kentucky. Actually an Illinois State-EKU game would make sense, but both are road teams. Oh well.

EDIT: I realize I left Stephen F. Austin off the list of road teams. SFA is ranked No. 77. That pretty much throws everything off from this "masterpiece" I put together, but it should still give a general feeling for what could happen. An if ESPN's BPI is used as a gauge (and I don't know why the network running the show wouldn't go off its own system), the Zips are still probably looking at North Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin or Denver being the opponent as of right now.

[ZachTheZip]

Good thinking on the ESPN rankings being used over the RPI. That seems more likely, since ESPN thinks they can just make up their own methods of rating things and that everyone will accept it as a new standard (see Total QBR).

Something else to consider with the TV games is that they are made to get ESPN good TV ratings. They will select match-ups that will make them the most money. After the top 10 or so home and away teams, the teams become no-names who won't draw well. But they can and will fudge things around to produce what they believe are exciting match-ups.

[ZachTheZip]

Top 8 Home and Away Bracketbuster teams according to ESPN's BPI rankings:

Home:

(13) Wichita State

(43) Belmont

(44) Akron

(45) St. Mary's

(69) Northern Iowa

(72) Valparaiso

(74) Indiana State

(96) Murray State

Away:

(11) Creighton

(60) North Dakota State

(71) Illinois State

(75) Ohio

(78) Stephen F. Austin

(97) Detroit

(101) Weber State

(109) Eastern Kentucky

Illinois State would be ideal, if only they had a better W-L record.

[Dave in Green]

I'm starting to take a liking to Stephen F. Austin. First, they're 16-1 -- best record in BracketBusters. Second, they're ranked #55 in Pomeroy whereas Illinois State (11-9) is ranked #74. Third, SFA is #10 in the mid-major top 25 while the Zips are #13, and Illinois State is not even in others receiving votes. Fourth, SFA beat Oklahoma in Norman, and their only loss is to Texas A&M by 8 points in College Station. Illinois State is ranked higher in RPI and ESPN BPI mainly because they're in the MVC, the original master of RPI manipulation conference. I'm pulling for SFA to beat Northwestern State this weekend and have a 17-1 record when they're announced as the Zips' BracketBusters opponent.

EDIT: Forgot to mention that SFA has the #5 adjusted defense in the country according to Pomeroy, trailing only Florida, Louisville, Oklahoma State and Kansas. This would be a great test for the Zips' offense.

[The Hip Zip]

Know it won't happen but would love to get another shot at the Titans. That loss hure real, real bad.

[ZachTheZip]

I'm starting to take a liking to Stephen F. Austin. First, they're 16-1 -- best record in BracketBusters. Second, they're ranked #55 in Pomeroy whereas Illinois State (11-9) is ranked #74. Third, SFA is #10 in the mid-major top 25 while the Zips are #13, and Illinois State is not even in others receiving votes. Fourth, SFA beat Oklahoma in Norman, and their only loss is to Texas A&M by 8 points in College Station. Illinois State is ranked higher in RPI and ESPN BPI mainly because they're in the MVC, the original master of RPI manipulation conference. I'm pulling for SFA to beat Northwestern State this weekend and have a 17-1 record when they're announced as the Zips' BracketBusters opponent.

EDIT: Forgot to mention that SFA has the #5 adjusted defense in the country according to Pomeroy, trailing only Florida, Louisville, Oklahoma State and Kansas. This would be a great test for the Zips' offense.

Pretty impressive for just one guy.

[Captain Kangaroo]

Know it won't happen but would love to get another shot at the Titans. That loss hure real, real bad.

I used to think so too, until Detroit began losing.

That loss was a bad one for the Zips. Blew a big lead against a slightly-above-mediocre team. I've had enough of Detroit. Wistercill needs to get on the phone with ESPN and forgo the home game for a roadie against St Mary's.

[Dave in Green]

SFA blew it and lost to Northwestern State. That should drop them behind the Zips in all the polls, which means that any team the Zips end up with will be ranked lower.

North Dakota State also lost.

Illinois State looks like they're going to beat Evansville and move to 12-9 on the season.

[ZachTheZip]

I would love to beat ISU, if only to shut up their fans about how they would completely dominate the MAC if they ever got an invite.