At Large Consideration

[Dave in Green]

It's interesting to see what Team Rankings projects for the Kitties. They're given an almost equal chance (44.9%) to get the MAC's automatic bid, but only a 1.9% chance of earning an at large bid. So projecting from the same data the selection committee will be looking at shows the Zips as a much more likely at large candidate than the Kitties based on their respective total bodies of work.

[skip-zip]

It depends on the other teams in the at large pool. If a lot of the teams with higher rankings than the Zips win their conference tournaments and get automatic bids, the Zips would have a decent chance against other at large candidates with similar records. If a lot of higher ranked teams get upset in their conference tournaments and need to use an at-large bid, then the Zips would be more likely to get passed over. Team Rankings NCAA Basketball Bracketology Projections currently show the Zips with an 80.2% chance of making the NCAA tournament based on a 45.1% chance of an automatic bid and a 35.1% chance of an at large bid.

Dave,

It's always an interesting discussion. And don't forget that I've advocated for us to try to get to the NCAA tourney as an at-large for a long time, and want nothing more than for this to happen.

But please focus on the fact that I said "AKRON with a high 30 RPI". We'd be a team that is virtually unknown in college basketball circles, with no former success in the tourney, and no high profile wins. Realistically, what are the chances that even 1 or 2 people in that room would lobby at all for Akron?

[FromdaBurgh]

Getting some LOVE from Bleacher Report:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1525074...-madness/page/4

[Dave in Green]

@skip-zip, the computers consider all the same data the NCAA selection committee considers, and they spit out the same raw numbers the committee sees. The computers don't know that Akron is not supposed to be good. They only know that the Zips have a better resume than some might think, because they've unemotionally and dispassionately compared the numbers behind the Zips' SOS, RPI, significant wins, etc., to those of other teams. Considering all that data, they project that the Zips have about a 1 in 3 chance of getting an at-large bid.

It's impossible to accurately factor in the predispositions and prejudices of the human committee members because we have no way of really knowing what they are or how big a role they play. The NCAA has made a major effort to become as data-driven and transparent as possible. That's why they invite media in to go through a mock selection process. It's not a perfect process and it never can be. Fans of many teams, not just the Zips, will never trust that their teams are getting a fair shake. It's always been that way and it always will be. The only thing we know for sure are the numbers the computers spit out, and they show that the Zips may have their best shot ever at an at large bid this season as long as they keep winning.

[bUAkronG]

@DiG I love that you cite TeamRankings.com. I discovered the site last week and have been checking out as much as I can on it. It has some great stuff.

If you go to their Bracketology trends, the first list is "Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Gain Since Yesterday" in which Akron is the 4th team on the list, with an increase from 79.3% to 80.5% in the last 24 hours.

[Dave in Green]

I've just started using TeamRankings.com, and in some ways find it more useful than StatSheet.com.

[skip-zip]

Zips may have their best shot ever at an at large bid this season as long as they keep winning.

Amen to that. We could probably continue this discussion forever.

Lets just hope that we find some way to make it happen this time around. But better yet, lets hope that we don't need that option at all.

[BirdZip]

I find Joe Lunardi to be thoroughly annoying, but here are a few interesting tidbits from his chat on Monday:

Jeff (Columbus)

Joe - Still not buying Akron as an at-large candidate? Where do you have them overall and is there any chance at all of 2 MAC teams in the big dance?

Joe Lunardi (2:22 PM)

It's not a question of "buying," it's a question of beating NCAA-level teams. Akron has a home overtime win over Middle Tennessee and that's it. Don't shoot the messenger.

Tim (Columbus)You may not be collecting this data, but has the committee's selection and seeding tilted towards KenPom/BPI etc and away from RPI in recent years. If yes, do you think this will benefit a team like Iowa? Stronger in KP/BPI than RPI.

Joe Lunardi (2:45 PM)

Great question, Tim, and I do track such things. My answer would be "less RPI" and more so-called "eye-test" determinations by individual committee members. Sometimes those choices correspond to non-RPI metrics, sometimes not.

Greg (East Lansing)

I would say that the so-called "eye test" would be a very biased way to evaluate teams, don't you think?

Joe Lunardi (2:49 PM)

Do we have an hour? Yes, Greg, in a word, I've always said the "eye test" belongs in opthalmology (and not bracketology!!).

[Dave in Green]

I believe that Lunardi is the most conservative of the bracketologists. Others are starting to give the Zips a closer look, analyzing more details, and liking what they see. I doubt that Lunardi has studied the Zips in enough detail to be familiar with the full impact of losing Tree and Nick for the first three games of the season, or having Rico handicapped for so many games recovering from that severe high ankle sprain. It's my understanding that the NCAA selection committee does consider fine details like that as they're comparing bubble team resumes. So I continue to believe that there's a chance of an at-large bid as long as the Zips win out but lose a close MAC tournament championship game. It's a small chance, for sure. It requires that the Zips not be upset along the way, and that the bubble teams they would be compared against lose a few more games before season's end. So it's probably good that Lunardi is sending the message that Zips fans shouldn't be too optimistic.

[zippy5]

Lunardi is also, unfortunately, the best at predicting the field as well.

[Dave in Green]

"The best" at predicting the field? Let's check the scoreboard.

[zippy5]

"The best" at predicting the field? Let's check the scoreboard.

Interesting.. but as far as picking the teams that make the tourney (regardless of seeding), I think he's missed maybe 1 or 2 teams total in the past 6 or so years that I've followed it.

[Class of 82]

It's always fun to speculate, but holding out hope for an at-large bid is pretty much begging for disappointment. IMO, our only realistic at-large chances blew up in Puerto Rico. That tournament was ours for the taking with Tree and Harney playing. C'est la vie.

I'd like to see us win out the regular season. It would be an unbelievable achievement, especially considering we still have Ohio and Buffalo on the road. Still, the Zips have a realistic shot to pull off something really special. But I believe they'll still have to win the MAC tournament to make the NCAA.

This is the MAC. Nobody's going to give this team any crumbs or feel sorry for them. To get what those boys (and we) want, they're going to have to take it. And I hope that's their mindset.

GO ZIPS!

[Dave in Green]

As I've said before, the problem with wishing for an at-large bid is that it would depend on a perfect storm of all the right highly ranked teams winning their conference tournaments and all the bubble teams losing games and falling behind the Zips in their total resumes. It's possible but not likely to happen. Heck, Creighton and Wichita State have gone from sure things to bubble teams after their recent series of conference losses.

The positive scenario to dream about where the Zips control their own destiny is how high a seed they might earn in the NCAA tournament if they win out, including the MAC tournament championship game. It's a wild scenario that would bring the Zips into the NCAA tournament as a 28-4 team on a 24-game winning streak. It would take avoiding a big upset in the upcoming games where the Zips are clearly favored, beating a strong North Dakota State team at the JAR, and likely beating OU twice more -- in Athens and at the Q. Those three wins plus a 24-game winning streak would earn a fair amount of respect from the selection committee when it came to seeding. Right now the Zips' 16-game winning streak is exactly two-thirds of the way toward reaching that extremely difficult goal. They just have to keep taking it one game at a time. But regardless of what happens in the other games, winning two at the Q should be considered mandatory.

[zen]

Let's just remember to enjoy the ride.

I think we get all caught up in the streak, how it looks, and the record, and what recognition it does or should bring, and we forget to realize how much fun it is to watch winning unfold.

No matter what happens, I think its better to focus less on perception and more on our own experience.

[Dave in Green]

Belmont just got upset again for the second time in a week, this time by Tennessee State, 80-69. Belmont is now 20-6 overall and 11-2 in the OVC. As recently as earlier today, some sportswriters were still rating Belmont as a possible at-large team for the NCAA tournament, even after their loss a few days ago to Murray State. This second loss in a week will put an end to that talk. And speaking of Murray State, they were just upset by SIU-Edwardsville, 65-60, falling to 18-6 overall and 9-3 in the OVC. So, the OVC has just lost any shot at an at-large selection.

Belmont had been a mid-major darling of the media, and ranked ahead of the Zips in all polls. With this second loss in a week, there's no reason the Zips can't move ahead of Belmont. This is just an insanely competitive and unpredictable season, with top-ranked teams rolling along and then losing several in a row to lower-ranked teams. The NCAA selection committee is going to have an interesting session trying to fill the field with clearly deserving at-large entries.

[Dave in Green]

Ready for another one? Remember mighty Montana, proud leaders of the Big Sky Conference with a 14-0 record, riding a 14-game winning streak and hoping for the Zips to stumble so that they can hold the nation's longest winning streak? The Grizzlies have turned into teddy bears tonight, and trail Weber State at halftime, 44-24. Now maybe they are good enough to bounce back from a 20-point halftime deficit. But I doubt it. I think they're destined to be the next undefeated conference team to fall by the wayside.

[odhgibo]

The positive scenario to dream about where the Zips control their own destiny is how high a seed they might earn in the NCAA tournament if they win out, including the MAC tournament championship game. It's a wild scenario that would bring the Zips into the NCAA tournament as a 28-4 team on a 24-game winning streak. It would take avoiding a big upset in the upcoming games where the Zips are clearly favored, beating a strong North Dakota State team at the JAR, and likely beating OU twice more -- in Athens and at the Q. Those three wins plus a 24-game winning streak would earn a fair amount of respect from the selection committee when it came to seeding.

In the past 15 years, the only MAC team to be seeded higher than #11 was the 2001-02 Can't team, and they were a #10. That team was more highly regarded by the polls that take into account victory margin than this year's Zips.

Call me a pessimist, but I still see #13 being more likely than a #12. I do NOT see a #11 in the cards.

[jeaglet1]

... But the RPI Forecast computers currently say the Zips' RPI would be around 30 if they win all the rest of their regular season games. While RPI Forecast does not yet include tournament game projections, it's logical to assume that there would be an improvement over 30 if the Zips won a semi-final game at the Q and then a drop if they lost in the championship game. Under those circumstances, why would an estimate of high 30s not be in the neighborhood?

RPI Forecast recently added projections with Conference Tournaments. They have graphical buttons at the top to switch back and forth between the two forecasts. 27-4 would give the Zips the regular season and Tourney titles with a rpiforecast projection of 18.8. 26-5 Forecasts to an RPI of 25.2. The highest probability they have (27.23%) has the final record as 25-6, with an RPI of 34.

Belmont just got upset again for the second time in a week, this time by Tennessee State, 80-69. Belmont is now 20-6 overall and 11-2 in the OVC. As recently as earlier today, some sportswriters were still rating Belmont as a possible at-large team for the NCAA tournament, even after their loss a few days ago to Murray State. This second loss in a week will put an end to that talk. And speaking of Murray State, they were just upset by SIU-Edwardsville, 65-60, falling to 18-6 overall and 9-3 in the OVC. So, the OVC has just lost any shot at an at-large selection.

Belmont had been a mid-major darling of the media, and ranked ahead of the Zips in all polls. With this second loss in a week, there's no reason the Zips can't move ahead of Belmont. This is just an insanely competitive and unpredictable season, with top-ranked teams rolling along and then losing several in a row to lower-ranked teams. The NCAA selection committee is going to have an interesting session trying to fill the field with clearly deserving at-large entries.

Not only would they have a chance to move ahead of them now, they also host OU in the BB. A loss there would drop them even more, and possibly make that win vs. OU a top 50ish / win.

[jeaglet1]

In the past 15 years, the only MAC team to be seeded higher than #11 was the 2001-02 Can't team, and they were a #10. That team was more highly regarded by the polls that take into account victory margin than this year's Zips.

Call me a pessimist, but I still see #13 being more likely than a #12. I do NOT see a #11 in the cards.

K.e.n.t was a #9 seed in 2008 when they lost to UNLV. I believe they won a BB @ St. Mary that year. Seeding is also hurt that in the last 4 years, we've had the #5, 9, 6, & 3 seeds win the tourney.

[Zip Watcher]

In the past 15 years, the only MAC team to be seeded higher than #11 was the 2001-02 Can't team, and they were a #10. That team was more highly regarded by the polls that take into account victory margin than this year's Zips.

Call me a pessimist, but I still see #13 being more likely than a #12. I do NOT see a #11 in the cards.

Can't was in the 8/9 game against UNLV one of the times Jimmy C took them to the dance. It was the year the Zips beat FSU and played at UMass. The flashes had their worst shooting game of the season and were smoked by halftime.

[MDZip]

RPI Forecast recently added projections with Conference Tournaments. They have graphical buttons at the top to switch back and forth between the two forecasts. 27-4 would give the Zips the regular season and Tourney titles with a rpiforecast projection of 18.8. 26-5 Forecasts to an RPI of 25.2. The highest probability they have (27.23%) has the final record as 25-6, with an RPI of 34.

Not only would they have a chance to move ahead of them now, they also host OU in the BB. A loss there would drop them even more, and possibly make that win vs. OU a top 50ish / win.

Two good things for the Zips would come out of an OU win against Belmont. Go Bobcats! I just threw up in my mouth a little.

[Sergeant Zip]

Zac Jackson breaks down the Zips tournament profile.

[skip-zip]

Can't was in the 8/9 game against UNLV one of the times Jimmy C took them to the dance. It was the year the Zips beat FSU and played at UMass. The flashes had their worst shooting game of the season and were smoked by halftime.

It was 2008. As I've said often, this is the team that would have absolutely gained an at-large bid, had they not won the MAC tourney. And I believe their RPI was in the 20s at the time.

If we end up in a situation close to that, it will be interesting to see how the selection committee treats us, since we would be a team that doesn't have Ken+'s past tournament success and reputation on our resume.

[MDZip]

The Plain Dealer has a poll about the Akron - Ohio St matchup that is currently a part of Joe Lunardi's bracket in a 4/13 matchup in Kansas City. Would love to see this matchup on a neutral court. Zips are currently ahead.

Also a little disappointed that the Zips are not showing up in the bubble watch yet. Lots of teams with much higher RPI's are being mentioned but of course almost all of those are in the power conferences.