MDZip Posted February 20, 2013 Report Share Posted February 20, 2013 Well finally got the attention of the ESPN Bubble Watch folks: Akron [21-4 (12-0), RPI: 49, SOS: 170] The Zips have a similar profile to Belmont, in that they have a bunch of victories, one good win over Middle Tennessee, and a couple of truly questionable losses. Unfortunately, Akron's nonconference schedule doesn't hold a candle to Belmont's, so the Zips' SOS and RPI don't have quite the same punch. This is a bit of a long shot, one that probably requires Akron to win out, including wins over North Dakota State and at Ohio in their next two games. But a long shot is still a shot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BirdZip Posted February 21, 2013 Report Share Posted February 21, 2013 Well finally got the attention of the ESPN Bubble Watch folks: Akron [21-4 (12-0), RPI: 49, SOS: 170] The Zips have a similar profile to Belmont, in that they have a bunch of victories, one good win over Middle Tennessee, and a couple of truly questionable losses. Unfortunately, Akron's nonconference schedule doesn't hold a candle to Belmont's, so the Zips' SOS and RPI don't have quite the same punch. This is a bit of a long shot, one that probably requires Akron to win out, including wins over North Dakota State and at Ohio in their next two games. But a long shot is still a shot. What I found intersting about that article was that when they discussed Middle Tennessee, they poo-poo'd their bad loss because it happened so long ago: They have a good (26 RPI!) but not slam-dunk at-large profile with only one bad loss, which they suffered all the way back on Jan. 3. Just as in 2012, there is very little margin for bad-loss error, which the Blue Raiders have thus far done well to avoid. Welcome to life as the Sun Belt's best. Our most recent bad loss, if you use Detroit, was 3 weeks earlier, and any other "bad loss" was another month earlier than that (and without two key contributors). You can spin it any way you want to, and my guess is that the committee would spin it against Akron (and MTSU for that matter) in favor of a "big name". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in Green Posted February 21, 2013 Report Share Posted February 21, 2013 @BirdZip, Zips fans may consider Detroit a bad loss. But the NCAA selection committee will not. They do not see losses to top 100 teams on the road as "bad," and Detroit's RPI is currently #63. The selection committee will only look at it as a missed opportunity for Akron to prove itself with a quality road win, which the committee values highly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BirdZip Posted February 21, 2013 Report Share Posted February 21, 2013 @BirdZip, Zips fans may consider Detroit a bad loss. But the NCAA selection committee will not. They do not see losses to top 100 teams on the road as "bad," and Detroit's RPI is currently #63. The selection committee will only look at it as a missed opportunity for Akron to prove itself with a quality road win, which the committee values highly. I don't necessarily disagree, which is why I went back to the previous "bad loss" (CCU) as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in Green Posted February 21, 2013 Report Share Posted February 21, 2013 Correct, Coastal Carolina is the only loss that the selection committee will see as bad, and it was the first D-I game of the season. The Zips were ranked slightly higher than Detroit when the two teams played. But Detroit's homecourt advantage offset that, so the spread was listed as 0.0. If the selection committee were to put their most powerful microscope on the Coastal Carolina loss (which they won't), here's what they'd see: * Leading rebounder and 2nd leading scorer (Tree) did not play. * 3rd leading rebounder and 4th leading scorer (Harney) did not play. * Assists leader, 3rd leading scorer and team leader (Abreu) playing at half speed in his first game back from a serious high ankle sprain that took several more weeks to heal. * Starting forward (Gilliam at the time) scoring 1 point while limping on a recently torn meniscus that soon required surgery. * Due to the above, 43% of PT was by freshmen in their first Zips game against a D-I opponent, and 38% by true freshmen who had never faced a D-I opponent. Some will call that making excuses. I call it making oneself aware of all the extenuating circumstances. The players are not machines and the contests are not video games. They're real people with real injuries that hurt their performance no matter how hard they try to do well. Outside of the totally inexperienced freshmen, the performance of only 3 players -- 2 experienced seniors and 1 semi-experienced sophomore -- was unaffected by injuries. The lack of healthy, experienced players on the floor in that game was greater than any other Zips game I can recall since I've been following them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bUAkronG Posted February 21, 2013 Report Share Posted February 21, 2013 Correct, Coastal Carolina is the only loss that the selection committee will see as bad, and it was the first D-I game of the season. The Zips were ranked slightly higher than Detroit when the two teams played. But Detroit's homecourt advantage offset that, so the spread was listed as 0.0. If the selection committee were to put their most powerful microscope on the Coastal Carolina loss (which they won't), here's what they'd see: * Leading rebounder and 2nd leading scorer (Tree) did not play. * 3rd leading rebounder and 4th leading scorer (Harney) did not play. * Assists leader, 3rd leading scorer and team leader (Abreu) playing at half speed in his first game back from a serious high ankle sprain that took several more weeks to heal. * Starting forward (Gilliam at the time) scoring 1 point while limping on a recently torn meniscus that soon required surgery. * Due to the above, 43% of PT was by freshmen in their first Zips game against a D-I opponent, and 38% by true freshmen who had never faced a D-I opponent. Some will call that making excuses. I call it making oneself aware of all the extenuating circumstances. The players are not machines and the contests are not video games. They're real people with real injuries that hurt their performance no matter how hard they try to do well. Outside of the totally inexperienced freshmen, the performance of only 3 players -- 2 experienced seniors and 1 semi-experienced sophomore -- was unaffected by injuries. The lack of healthy, experienced players on the floor in that game was greater than any other Zips game I can recall since I've been following them. other than the obvious absence of Tree and Harney, how will the selection committee know of the shortcomings we were facing during that game? I just wonder how closely they'd examine it to find out about Rico and Chauncey's ailing injuries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zipmeister Posted February 21, 2013 Report Share Posted February 21, 2013 other than the obvious absence of Tree and Harney, how will the selection committee know of the shortcomings we were facing during that game? I just wonder how closely they'd examine it to find out about Rico and Chauncey's ailing injuries. You just spent more time wondering about it than anyone on the selection committee will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hilltopper Posted February 21, 2013 Report Share Posted February 21, 2013 You just spent more time wondering about it than anyone on the selection committee will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in Green Posted February 21, 2013 Report Share Posted February 21, 2013 Good educational story from Seth Davis: Debunking Selection Sunday's biggest myths Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OZoner Posted February 23, 2013 Report Share Posted February 23, 2013 Here is a replica of what the committee will be looking at come next month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in Green Posted February 23, 2013 Report Share Posted February 23, 2013 That's not all they will be looking at. All the articles written by journalists who've been through the media selection committee process mention that they look at many elements beyond this basic summary sheet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valpo Zip Posted February 23, 2013 Report Share Posted February 23, 2013 That's why winning at Ohio will be huge. We NEED at least one top 100 away win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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