Zeke and the NBA Draft

[Dave in Green]

Zeke's NBA draft status is enhanced by being ranked #23 overall and one of the top projected NBA centers out of more than 3,000 NCAA players in the season's final Value Add Basketball ratings. The rating system, developed by Rob Lowe, measures players' total contribution to their teams' offenses and defenses with tempo-free statistics. A version of this system is used by NBA teams to predict how well potential draftees will do in the NBA based on their college performance. So the fact that Zeke is ranked so high is a big plus because the system has been an accurate predictor of NBA talent. Here's a link to the final standings and here's a link to an explanation of how the system works.

[UAZipster0305]

Zeke's NBA draft status is enhanced by being ranked #23 overall and one of the top projected NBA centers out of more than 3,000 NCAA players in the season's final Value Add Basketball ratings. The rating system, developed by Rob Lowe, measures players' total contribution to their teams' offenses and defenses with tempo-free statistics. A version of this system is used by NBA teams to predict how well potential draftees will do in the NBA based on their college performance. So the fact that Zeke is ranked so high is a big plus because the system has been an accurate predictor of NBA talent. Here's a link to the final standings and here's a link to an explanation of how the system works.

No offense, DiG, but I don't think NBA scouts care at all about these ranking schemes. They are much more qualitative: Can player X adjust to the speed and size of the NBA and can he help a team win? That's really all there is to it.

I love Zeke and think he's been a great student-athlete for us. However, I'm not sure if he has the passion and intensity to excel in the NBA. I wish him the best regardless of what he chooses to do and where he ends up.

[Dave in Green]

@trimmy10, no offense taken. No offense intended from me, either, but it appears from your response that you didn't read the explanation I linked to or you would have seen the following about what NBA team officials actually think about this system:

..... Lowe built on Value Add and other sources to develop calculations that measure how likely a player is to be successful in the NBA, and officials from several NBA teams met with me prior to the 2012 draft to review these valuations. These evaluations are only available to select NBA teams .....

..... several NBA team officials met with me and were very complementary that my calculations were "finding" several of the same sleeper prospects they had found through intense scouting .....

[UAZipster0305]

@trimmy10, no offense taken. No offense intended from me, either, but it appears from your response that you didn't read the explanation I linked to or you would have seen the following about what NBA team officials actually think about this system:

I get it, Dave. Like your reference says, NBA scouts are using it to identify potential sleepers. In other words, identify players that haven't gotten enough attention but perhaps should have. For the major players not identified as sleepers and those identified by this methodology, the question remains: Can player X adjust to the speed and size of the NBA and can he help a team win? The ranking system will in no way influence draft order.

With respect to Zeke, he is already an identified NBA prospect, so I don't believe the ranking will either help or hurt him.

[Dave in Green]

@trimmy10, there's certainly room for different interpretations, as the description does not provide comprehensive detail and we're left to try to read between the lines. When I see a line that says "These evaluations are only available to select NBA teams," I take that to mean that the enhanced evaluations are only available to NBA teams that pay for them. If NBA teams are willing to pay for this service, I take that to mean that they find value in the enhanced evaluations beyond the teams' normal scouting services. I do not interpret the wording of the entire article to suggest that these evaluations are used by NBA teams exclusively to discover sleepers that they wouldn't otherwise find. My interpretation is that the enhanced evaluations, which go beyond the basic ones posted online, are actually useful in more accurately predicting which college players are more likely to be successful in the NBA. I'd be interested in hearing if others interpret this differently from the different ways that you and I do.

[skip-zip]

If someone saw some type of "evaluation" that supposedly measures a player's contribution to his college team, and it's a MAC player playing against MAC competition, wouldn't anyone immediately have serious questions about it? Especially when it ranks a player #23 and we already know that it's very much in doubt if that player will even make it into the Top-60 players picked? And when other, more recognized sources have that player ranked in the 90s, at best?

I'm quite certain that every NBA team is measuring these players in terms of their potential to be productive against others in the NBA.

[Dave in Green]

@skip-zip, good questions. Here's the answer from the explanation story about how they can accurately compare the offensive and defensive performance of players who've competed against different levels of competition, i.e. MAC vs. Big East:

..... In both cases, a player's rating is measured against exactly how good each of an opponents’ offense and defense is, so the same player should have basically the same rating whether he plays for the national champion or the worst Division 1 team. .....

As far as different services ranking players differently, that's just the nature of talent evaluation. Beyond a small number of "can't miss" prospects, there is no perfect system for predicting which college players will do best in the NBA. Every year some players with really good college performances fail to make it in the pros, and some who didn't show obvious signs of greatness in the college game actually perform better in the NBA environment. The Value Add Basketball ratings may or may not be the holy grail of more accurately predicting which college players are more likely to do well in the NBA. I see it as one of many tools that NBA teams can use to try to make the smartest draft choices. I think that the more of these services where Zeke ranks near the top, the better his chances are of being drafted.

[skip-zip]

The Value Add Basketball ratings may or may not be the holy grail of more accurately predicting which college players are more likely to do well in the NBA. I see it as one of many tools that NBA teams can use to try to make the smartest draft choices. I think that the more of these services where Zeke ranks near the top, the better his chances are of being drafted.

"May not" be the holy grail?? They oddly have him ranked something like 70 spots higher than the others. And where are these other services where he is ranked "near the top"?

If we wanted to test the accuracy of this rating system you are quoting, we'd ask ourselves what the chances are that he ends up being the 23rd pick. And those chances are Zero.

I'd be thrilled to see his draft stock rising to such a level, if it were accurate. But, we all already know that this ranking is way off from where he'll fall in the draft, if he's fortunate to get selected at all, which would be a great day for Akron Basketball.

[jeaglet1]

Chad Ford just posted his first mock draft. No Zeke, but it's only a first round mock. (ESPN Insider LINK)

They also have a link to John Hollinger's PER ratings for last college basketball season. Zeke is number 17 in the country. Others of note: Kelly Olynyck #1, Mike Muscala #2, Javon McRae #7, Cody Zeller #8, Trey Burke #13, and Jeff Withey #34. (LINK)

[Dr Z]

Chad Ford just posted his first mock draft.

I've never followed an NBA mock draft, are they as inaccurate as all the NFL ones?

[MDZip]

I've never followed an NBA mock draft, are they as inaccurate as all the NFL ones?

Speaking of that Don Banks of SI.com just projected Central Michigan OT Eric Fisher as the Number 1 pick in the upcoming NFL draft. Wonder what the highest MAC pick in history is?

Edit: Good point MD. Though it might be better to discuss over at the football forum, and keep this thread Zeke related.

[Dave in Green]

I've never followed an NBA mock draft, are they as inaccurate as all the NFL ones?

NBA mock drafts are all over the place when it comes to accuracy. The best ones give you a ballpark idea. Paul M. Banks, CEO of TheSportsBank.net, came up with a point system for mock draft accuracy in 2011 and applied it to 34 different published mock drafts, with the results showing a wide variation. In 2012 Banks expanded to grading 122 different mock drafts, again with widely varying results. David Kay ended up with the most accurate mock draft in both 2011 and 2012, as noted here, with Chad Ford essentially tying Kay for accuracy in 2012.

For 2013, Kay projects Zeke to be the #55 draft pick, going to the Los Angeles Clippers, with the comment: "His ability to protect the rim will earn him a chance to find a home in the league." As previously mentioned on ZN.o, Ford stated in an online chat that Zeke "for sure" has a chance of being drafted and "a very good shot at the first round." So the two mock draft gurus who tied for most accurate mock drafts last season (Kay and Ford) are both optimistic about Zeke's chances. But there are plenty of mock drafts out there that don't include Zeke for anyone who might be looking for reinforcement of the pessimistic viewpoint.

[MDZip]

Edit: Good point MD. Though it might be better to discuss over at the football forum, and keep this thread Zeke related.

Can we count it if Zeke doesn't get drafted by the NBA but gets picked up as a tight end by the NFL?

[akronzips71]

Can we count it if Zeke doesn't get drafted by the NBA but gets picked up as a tight end by the NFL?

TE no way.

Wide receiver - throw the ball around 9 feet in the air and no one else could catch it.

But can the big guy take a hit?

[jeaglet1]

NBA mock drafts are all over the place when it comes to accuracy. The best ones give you a ballpark idea. Paul M. Banks, CEO of TheSportsBank.net, came up with a point system for mock draft accuracy in 2011 and applied it to 34 different published mock drafts, with the results showing a wide variation. In 2012 Banks expanded to grading 122 different mock drafts, again with widely varying results. David Kay ended up with the most accurate mock draft in both 2011 and 2012, as noted here, with Chad Ford essentially tying Kay for accuracy in 2012.

For 2013, Kay projects Zeke to be the #55 draft pick, going to the Los Angeles Clippers, with the comment: "His ability to protect the rim will earn him a chance to find a home in the league." As previously mentioned on ZN.o, Ford stated in an online chat that Zeke "for sure" has a chance of being drafted and "a very good shot at the first round." So the two mock draft gurus who tied for most accurate mock drafts last season (Kay and Ford) are both optimistic about Zeke's chances. But there are plenty of mock drafts out there that don't include Zeke for anyone who might be looking for reinforcement of the pessimistic viewpoint.

I've seen that for NCAA projections, but never mock drafts. Interesting. I would imagine the NBA draft would be the hardest to project with all the the European players taken but unavailable for a few years.

[Captain Kangaroo]

TE no way.

Wide receiver - throw the ball around 9 feet in the air and no one else could catch it.

But can the big guy take a hit?

Why don't NFL teams, or college teams for that matter, take a 7-footer to block kicks? Especially the long ones. Could anyone get a 50-yard kick over a leaping Quade Milum?

I guess it is a similar argument to "Why don't NHL teams place a 900 pound man between the pipes?"

[Dave in Green]

Hoops Analyst currently ranks Zeke #34 among his top 60 draft choices, and some of the underclassmen ranked ahead of him have already announced that they're not entering this season's draft, i.e. Kentucky center Willie Cauley-Stein. Here's what Hoops Analyst has to say about Zeke:

34. Zeke Marshall, C Akron: He’s always been a good shot blocker, which of course is the single most important thing any center prospect can do.

And here's what he says about centers in general in the upcoming NBA draft:

The strength of the draft remains the center position. There are a lot of promising centers in this draft. It’s a diverse group of young, veteran, defensive-minded and offensive-minded. None are perfect, but all are promising. I count 14 center prospects who are worthy of a first round pick. Most are young and have a wide career arc at this point, meaning there will be some tough choices.

If you scroll down to some of the earlier Hoops Analyst mock drafts, you can see that he has consistently focused on centers in this draft:

The 2013 draft is shaping up as a pretty good draft overall. The strength is centers, which is a great thing as the NBA is in a perpetual shortage of quality big men. It also means the draft is going to be top heavy in big men, because they’re more valuable players. The draft will be similar to 2012 in that there is one guy who stands out, followed by a muddled group starting at #2. Like last year the top guy is a freshman center playing for Kentucky. The important thing is that while Anthony Davis > Nerlens Noel, the rest of the 2013 class > 2012 class. The 2012 class was Davis followed by a bunch of players who would have been good picks starting at about #20. The 2013 draft looks pretty deep with solid prospects.

And you can see that Zeke has been moving up from his earlier ranking:

47. Zeke Marshall, C Akron: Marshall has gone full circle from over rated to under rated. He came to Akron with some high expectations. He was a good college player, but never looked like a much of a prospect his first three seasons. He slowly fell off the prospect radar. Now he’s playing the best basketball of his career and should be getting noticed again.

[skip-zip]

Dave,

I have much more hope with something like this, rather than some rogue player vs. his competition productivity index...or whatever that was. Can we honestly see an NBA team putting much stock in that, when it doesn't measure a potential NBA player against NBA-level competition?

Thanks for this latest update, although I don't like that he moved him down since his last list. But, I think there's still at least some hope that he can possibly get into the draft somewhere.

[GP1]

This thread has gotten pretty long so I'm not going back to look.

Is there an article out there that projects: NBA teams, their needs and who they are likely to draft to fill those needs? Or, an analysis of players and where they will go and why? Or, since it is still early, is there nothing like this out there?

I'm not so concerned about rankings. It is better to look at who needs what positions and see if there is a fit.

I think Zeke can be on an NBA team next year, but he is going to need some help by finding the right fit.

[LZIp]

This thread has gotten pretty long so I'm not going back to look.

Is there an article out there that projects: NBA teams, their needs and who they are likely to draft to fill those needs? Or, an analysis of players and where they will go and why? Or, since it is still early, is there nothing like this out there?

I'm not so concerned about rankings. It is better to look at who needs what positions and see if there is a fit.

I think Zeke can be on an NBA team next year, but he is going to need some help by finding the right fit.

I believe what you might be looking for is a mock draft. There are quite a few of them out there.

[Dave in Green]

@GP1, just google 2013 NBA team needs, and you'll find dozens of articles about which teams need which type of player. Having said that, the biggest shortage in the NBA happens to be talented 7-foot centers. So Zeke could be a target for just about any NBA team that doesn't already have a pair of talented 7-foot centers, and especially one who excels at guarding the rim.

@skip-zip, whether you realize it or not, most of the mock draft gurus like Hoops Analyst now rely on advanced stats along with visual observation to make their player evaluations. While raw numbers alone may not accurately predict who will do better at the next level, there are proprietary advanced metrics that have been run against former college players who either succeeded or failed in the NBA. By correlating against historical performance, predictions based on more sophisticated metrics are becoming more accurate. It appears that more people are becoming aware that Zeke passes both the eye test and the metrics test.

For example, DraftExpress.com has a whole section on stats for player comparisons. If you go to their interactive stats section and plug in their top 100 college players in the country (freshman through senior), then centers, and sort various metrics, you'll find that Zeke compares quite favorably with the top big name centers. In fact, Zeke is #1 among centers in points per possession ahead of Gonzaga's highly touted Kelly Olynyk. In EFF/40 (efficiency per 40 minutes), Zeke is #3 behind only Olynyk and Mike Muscala. In PER (player efficiency rating), Zeke is the #4 center behind only Olynyk, Muscala and Cody Zeller. Zeke is also among the top few college centers in other performance areas that are important considerations for NBA teams. Zeke's draft stock continues to rise.

[GP1]

This may be the greatest example of why all-star games should be ignored.

Amen. Only a team as stupid as the Browns would have flushed a draft pick down the toilet on him.

[Dave in Green]

After running a few more advanced metrics comparisons on DraftExpress.com for centers who are included among their top 100 college players, I found some pretty impressive overall results for Zeke. NBA teams pay a lot of attention to these advanced metrics, which show that Zeke performs better in many offensive and defensive areas than many of the bigger name centers. Obviously there are other areas where Zeke ranks lower, such as rebounding. But even there he's not that far off some of the top-ranked centers. For example, Kelly Olynyk averaged only .3 more rebounds per game than Zeke. Below I'll post the top 5s where Zeke did well to give everyone a better perspective of where Zeke stands in comparison to other centers who are considered certain draft choices:

Pts/Pos (points per possession)

1. Zeke Marshall (1.31)

2. Kelly Olynyk (1.26)

3. Ryan Kelly (1.23)

4. Jack Cooley (1.21)

5. Cody Zeller (1.19)

Pts/Play (points per play)

1. Zeke Marshall (1.17)

2. Kelly Olynyk (1.15)

3. Ryan Kelly (1.08)

4. Jack Cooley (1.08)

5. Cody Zeller (1.07)

eFG% (effective field goal percentage)

1. Zeke Marshall (0.66)

2. Kelly Olynyk (0.64)

3. Mason Plumlee (0.60)

4. Mitch McGary (0.60)

5. Nerlens Noel (0.59)

FTA/Pos (free throw attempts per possession)

1. Zeke Marshall (0.57)

2. Colton Iverson (0.53)

3. Cody Zeller (0.52)

4. Trevor Mbakwe (0.51)

5. Mason Plumlee (0.47)

FTA/FGA (free throw attempts per field goal attempt)

1. Zeke Marshall (0.79)

2. Trevor Mbakwe (0.74)

3. Colton Iverson (0.74)

4. Cody Zeller (0.73)

5. Mason Plumlee (0.69)

TS% (true shooting percentage)

1. Kelly Olynyk (0.68)

2. Zeke Marshall (0.66)

3. Mason Plumlee (0.63)

4. Adreian Payne (0.63)

5. Jeff Withey (0.62)

EFF/40 (efficiency per 40 minutes)

1. Kelly Olynyk (32.1)

2. Mike Muscala (32.0)

3. Zeke Marshall (27.2)

4. Jeff Withey (27.0)

5. Cody Zeller (26.9)

BK/g (blocks per game)

1. Nerlens Noel (4.4)

2. Jeff Withey (3.9)

3. Zeke Marshall (3.6)

4. Gorgui Dieng (2.5)

5. Mike Muscala (2.3)

PER (player efficiency rating)

1. Kelly Olynyk (37.0)

2. Mike Muscala (36.1)

3. Cody Zeller (30.2)

4. Zeke Marshall (30.1)

5. Jack Cooley (28.9)

PPR (assist to turnover rating)

1. Ryan Kelly (0.31)

2. Mike Muscala (-0.58)

3. Gorgui Dieng (-1.50)

4. Nerlens Noel (-2.60)

5. Zeke Marshall (-2.80)

WS/40 (win score per 40 minutes)

1. Mike Muscala (16.9)

2. Nerlens Noel (16.0)

3. Kelly Olynyk (15.7)

4. Jack Cooley (15.4)

5. Jeff Withey (14.5)

6. Zeke Marshall (14.4)

[GP1]

George's Article on Zeke

Fair article in my opinion. Great information from "insiders". Well done George.

Zeke can be a center in the NBA. I don't think he is a starting center, but he can make a great living for a few years as a back-up. No shame in that. Remember, it's just a job. With that said, his ability to play defense is what will help him make a team. Ever sat close to an NBA game? It is an enormously physical game. Zeke just needs to get himself to that point.

[Dave in Green]

GameChngr44 told us at the banquet last night to look for this article. This part of George's really well-written story sums it up for me:

Ultimately, Marshall’s future rests with one person — Zeke Marshall. Feldman said Marshall has shown improvement every day in training.

“When we coach him on something and he does it with a sense of purpose, his potential is unbelievable,” he said. “We have to get Zeke to believe his potential is unbelievable. We see it. I see it.”

On a certain level, Marshall gets that.

“I’m not the glamour child going into the NBA,” he said. “I’m not one of those guys who’s just got it, who already has it. So it’s going to take me time to work my way up there, so that’s why I have to do what I have to do.”

I believe that Zeke's potential is unbelievable, and that he's the only one who can fully activate his own potential. It sounds as if he's doing everything right, from the Marine Corps-type personal trainer to attending the highly rated John Lucas training camp in Houston. I think if Zeke even partially activates his remaining potential, he can be an NBA backup center. If he fully activates his potential, he could be a starting NBA center producing unbelievable results. The work required is daunting, but the financial payoff could be in the tens of millions of dollars over his career.