Gauging Team Improvement Beyond Record

[MaxZIP]

So we are closing in on the end of the ’13 Zips Football season. The wins include a 7 point victory over a winless Miami, a 1 point victory over a 1 win UMass (their only win was Miami), and the marquee win against a 3 FBS win Can't team. Can't having only beaten Miami, a 1 win Western Michigan (their only win against UMass), and the mighty 3 win Bobkittens. The Zips beat teams with a combined 5-28 record looking to be 5-31 by the end of this season.

1.) Is this success evidence of moving in the right direction or is it a function of competition

2.) What are your projections for next year with a solid recruiting class coming in

3.) How big of a role do the MAC schedulers play in determining success

4.) Where have the Zips shown the most improvement and is it sustainable?

[GP1]

We are better than last year when we were horrible. Now we are just bad. I expect six wins next year. A program in our condition will have three types of teams we compete against next year.

Four teams we should beat. We've done that this year and I expect them to do it again next year.

Four teams we shouldn't beat. We won't be quite where we need to be.

Four teams that are a toss up. I expect us to win two of these games next year.

Six wins gets us to a bowl and extra player development.

2015 we should compete for the MAC East and league Championship.

[zippy5]

So we are closing in on the end of the ’13 Zips Football season. The wins include a 7 point victory over a winless Miami, a 1 point victory over a 1 win UMass (their only win was Miami), and the marquee win against a 3 FBS win Can't team. Can't having only beaten Miami, a 1 win Western Michigan (their only win against UMass), and the mighty 3 win Bobkittens. The Zips beat teams with a combined 5-28 record looking to be 5-31 by the end of this season.

1.) Is this success evidence of moving in the right direction or is it a function of competition

2.) What are your projections for next year with a solid recruiting class coming in

3.) How big of a role do the MAC schedulers play in determining success

4.) Where have the Zips shown the most improvement and is it sustainable?

1.) Both. Before we would have been the Miami/UMass of the league. Now we are beating them. Next step is to beat the Ohio/Buffalos of the league.

2.) Should be 6 wins, especially if we can avoid NIU on the schedule. Every MAC game but them is winnable.

3.) Winners win

4.) Defense, and I think so. TB will have the offense clicking again soon enough, if the D drops off a little bit with the departures of D-linemen, I think the improved offense will make up for it.

I'm with GP1, 6~ wins next year, and competing for conference titles after that.

[mivid12]

one should never have to apologize for winning....

[MaxZIP]

2.) Should be 6 wins, especially if we can avoid NIU on the schedule. Every MAC game but them is winnable.

3.) Winners win

I'm with GP1, 6~ wins next year, and competing for conference titles after that.

6 wins is a fair assessment. I believe the MAC schedulers do manipulate crossover schedules to favor certain teams.

[MaxZIP]

Four teams we should beat. We've done that this year and I expect them to do it again next year.

Four teams we shouldn't beat. We won't be quite where we need to be.

Four teams that are a toss up. I expect us to win two of these games next year.

Six wins gets us to a bowl and extra player development.

2015 we should compete for the MAC East and league Championship.

Agree with your win total. Where have the zips made the most improvement and where will recruits make an impact next year?

[GP1]

Agree with your win total. Where have the zips made the most improvement and where will recruits make an impact next year?

Best improvements are in blocking, tackling, catching, throwing, running, jumping, etc. That's no joke either. They now have the talent to execute the basics of football that leads to a four win MAC team, but they still have a long way to go.

Areas of improvement would start with those improvements listed above. I think more physical development of the players is in order. I'd like to see a red shirt or a guy going from his first year to second year improve to the point fans are wondering if he is the same person. We really need some young guys to get their adult bodies on and contribute next year whether in a starting role or back-up role. Good programs take the largest steps in player development between their freshman and sophomore years and if we are to be good, we need to see this next year.

Consistency is the key. There is no reason for us to be 9th in the league in pass defense and 3rd in the league in interceptions. Those numbers should be muhc closer. There is no reason for us to be 3rd in the league in interceptions and 8th in turnover margin....stop giving it away almost as much as we take it away. Buffalo's turnover margin is +16...they are the Kansas City Chiefs of the MAC. A MUST improvement is our FG percentage is last in the league...we need to change our kicker or change our kicker.

Sometimes as fans, we worry too much about who is going and who is staying. I do it too much myself. With a 4 win team, we shouldn't worry too much about who is going. We need to worry about who is coming in and how are the existing players being developed. With 11 players, football allows teams to support players who may not be as good as the guy before him...offensive lines do it all the time.

[johnnyzip84]

1.) Is this success evidence of moving in the right direction or is it a function of competition

2.) What are your projections for next year with a solid recruiting class coming in

3.) How big of a role do the MAC schedulers play in determining success

4.) Where have the Zips shown the most improvement and is it sustainable?

Good topic. Here are my thoughts:

1.) I think it's mostly evidence of moving in the right direction. The close losses to UM, NIU and ULL can’t be ignored either.

2.) I predicted 4-8 this year. We can do no worse than that. The MAC loses a lot of talented seniors after this season (this was not so going from 2012 to 2013). That factors into my early projection of 6 or 7 wins next year. I’m a little concerned with the D-Line, but I think the staff will assemble the necessary depth come September.

3.) It’s not a huge role, but it certainly impacts a team like UA who is trying to establish a winning culture after a long period of losing. I think it’s naïve to think many conference schedules aren’t tweaked for reasons other than fairness and equality.

4.) I would say defensive structure is the biggest improvement. We still see an occasional breakdown on this side of the ball, but it’s a far cry from those years when opposing backs would seemingly run through gaping hole after gaping hole and opposing receivers would find themselves all alone 30 yards down field. Amato has his players in the right places on the vast majority of plays. I think this is definitely sustainable (linebacker corps is going to light it up next year), plus I think the team’s confidence will be much higher in 2014. That’s the biggest area I see for improvement on both sides of the ball. If the 2013 Zips were a little more confident, we would have blown out both Miami and UMass and possibly squeaked out another W early in the year.

[legendofzippy]

2.) What are your projections for next year with a solid recruiting class coming in

This is where we still need some work, IMO. I'm not convinced our recruiting is at a competitive level yet with the top MAC teams. Staff did a great job of finding guys (for the lack of a better term) on the waiver wire, but I'm not sold on recruiting yet.

[Captain Kangaroo]

4.) I would say defensive structure is the biggest improvement. We still see an occasional breakdown on this side of the ball, but it’s a far cry from those years when opposing backs would seemingly run through gaping hole after gaping hole and opposing receivers would find themselves all alone 30 yards down field. Amato has his players in the right places on the vast majority of plays. I think this is definitely sustainable (linebacker corps is going to light it up next year), plus I think the team’s confidence will be much higher in 2014. That’s the biggest area I see for improvement on both sides of the ball. If the 2013 Zips were a little more confident, we would have blown out both Miami and UMass and possibly squeaked out another W early in the year.

I agree 100%.

I think this was the best defense the Zips have fielded in two decades.

There really were no weak links in the secondary. All the DB's have improved since last season. We play WR's honest, without the 10-yard cushions we've all grown accustomed to since the Lee Owens years (apologies to the anomalies that were Dwight Smith and Reggie Corner).

LB's were awesome. We lost CJ Mizell for the better part of the season, and it was "Next man up." Jatavis Brown is great. Evans is great. March is great.

DL had quality and depth. Pretty much 8 interchangeable guys. All solid contributors.

We ALWAYS over-pursued in the past. Now we have discipline.

This was a bowl-worthy defense. But our offense was not. No rhythm, no consistency, just herky-jerky all season. I look forward to a real QB competition this spring. Pohl needs pushed. He needs to make a big leap forward next year if we are to be a bowl-worthy team. If he plays like 2013, or his successor plays like "Pohl 2013" it will be a shame.

Home run-hitter WR and return man need to emerge too. Our KO and Punt return guys have shown little in the way of escapability since Andre Jones. We start our possessions around the 20 yard line way too often.

[skip-zip]

I've said this before, but relying on the defense to win two games that could possibly help turn the program around is astounding, when you consider 2012.

I'll reserve my "is it us, or the poor competition" comments until I see at least one more game. But, I really do feel like we have some players out there, and I do think we're getting better.

[Dr Z]

Is this success evidence of moving in the right direction or is it a function of competition

Moving in the right direction.

What are your projections for next year with a solid recruiting class coming in

Winning record should be the goal now.

How big of a role do the MAC schedulers play in determining success

Akron's success? I'm in the minority, I will take the better teams in the MAC on our schedule. I want to beat the best, it makes you a better team at the end of the season. Beating up on crummy teams this season was nice, gives the kids some confidence. Next year, we should be passed that phase in the program. To be the best, you have to beat the best. A team this year that comes one play from Michigan is going to complain about playing BG, Toledo, NIU...please. On top of that, playing crummy MAC teams is not entertaining to me. I like the Pitt, PSU, OSU, Tenn, Mich games. Especially since Bowden is here. I understand we have to play a MAC schedule, and some teams aren't good, but I don't have to like it.

Where have the Zips shown the most improvement and is it sustainable?

Most? Hmmmm, I would say coaching staff. I'm not sure how long you had in mind writing "sustainable", I'll just answer with, Coach said he's not looking to move on, so all I can do is take him at his word. He has a pretty good track record.

[Dave in Green]

Coach Bowden's just-announced 2-year contract extension suggests that UA is pretty satisfied with the coaching improvement.

[MaxZIP]

They now have the talent to execute the basics of football that leads to a four win MAC team, but they still have a long way to go.

I still see a huge talent and size gap between the Zips and top MAC teams. I think they will be stuck at the 5-6 win threshold for a few years before making a MACC. A solid to great QB would definitely help expedite the process.

Area Good programs take the largest steps in player development between their freshman and sophomore years and if we are to be good, we need to see this next year.

2-3 more wins are great but the metric is subject to many forces. A more intimately connected metric for coaching success is player development. Coaching in the MAC seems to be all about player development as the raw talent is more raw and less obvious in recruits at this level. Bowden has to prove that he can turn silver to gold to raise general talent level and augment with some higher profile signings.

A MUST improvement is our FG percentage is last in the league...we need to change our kicker or change our kicker.

Zips kickers have not been that much worse than other MAC kickers. Lack of kickers is a huge issue and needs to be addressed because of how it changes coaching decision making. Now I am not talking about going for 3pts down 48 in the 3rd quarter or anything. But lack of confidence in the kicking game does alter play calling beyond going for it in the grey zone.

I do it too much myself. With a 4 win team, we shouldn't worry too much about who is going.

I agree as long as the players are not leaving early.

[MaxZIP]

1.) I think it's mostly evidence of moving in the right direction. The close losses to UM, NIU and ULL can’t be ignored either.

Good point. It would be nice to pick up a win like ULL to show progress early next year.

2.)That factors into my early projection of 6 or 7 wins next year.

I think they will be stuck at 6-7 wins for a few years unless a solid QB is found.

3.) I think it’s naïve to think many conference schedules aren’t tweaked for reasons other than fairness and equality.

Toledo was a real spoiler this year for NIU. Toledo beat Buffalo preventing a matchup of ranked teams in the MACC like the Can't v Northern Ill game last year. NIU needs some quality points to make a BCS game. Heck Buffalo lost to OSU, Baylor, and Toledo and would have been ranked if not for Toledo.

[UA1987]

We have Grice, Pittman, Hollis, Copeland, Horner, and Okafor returning next year on the d-line. Maybe Jeff Allen, Brock Boxen, and Daryan Martin can help too, but Chuck and Terry are going to have to pick up at least two more top notch athletes to hold the line next year. Transfers McCray, James, and Capi worked out great and I'm sure the Bowden network is scrubbing the Nation for 2014 reinforcements. I'd like to see a couple of 6 foot corner recruits and some immediate help in the defensive backfield (ala Avis Commack) too if available as we are losing a good one in Malachi Freeman. I think our offensive line may be OK next year, even with our losses, so several 3* recruits to redshirt there would be fine. We need a stud 3* running back recruit and a ready to excel WR transfer on offense along with a few other WR recruits to join Cottrill. Help on special teams is crucial too as noted in previous comments on this thread. I'm very interested in next year and the fun begins soon as the 2014 recruiting/transfer class will be key to any improvement (you win with Jimmy and Joe's not X's and O's). Eat em up!

[ZIPCODE]

We have Grice, Pittman, Hollis, Copeland, Horner, and Okafor returning next year on the d-line. Maybe Jeff Allen Brock Boxen, and Darius Martin can help too, but Chuck and Terry are going to have to pick up at least two more top notch athletes to hold the line next year. Transfers McCray, James, and Capi worked out great and I'm sure the Bowden network is scrubbing the Nation for 2014 reinforcements. I'd like to see a couple of 6 foot corner recruits and some immediate help in the defensive backfield (ala Avis Commack) too if available as we are losing a good one in Malachi Freeman. I think our offensive line may be OK next year, even with our losses, so several 3* recruits to redshirt there would be fine. We need a stud 3* running back recruit and a ready to excel WR transfer on offense along with a few other WR recruits to join Cottrill. Help on special teams is crucial too as noted in previous comments on this thread. I'm very interested in next year and the fun begins soon as the 2014 recruiting/transfer class will be key to any improvement (you win with Johnny and Joes not X's and O's). Eat em up!

Zips roster has Capi listed as a junior.

[Balsy]

1.) Is this success evidence of moving in the right direction or is it a function of competition

2.) What are your projections for next year with a solid recruiting class coming in

3.) How big of a role do the MAC schedulers play in determining success

4.) Where have the Zips shown the most improvement and is it sustainable?

1. Yes absolutely. This year we not only beat the teams we were supposed to (something we failed to do last year *cough* Miami *cough* FIU), but we also played better teams to the last play of the game on three occasions: Michigan, ULL, NIU.

2. I'm always overly optimistic, but I see a 7-5 season next year.

3. It plays a HUGE roll. We've got to slowly make progress to competing in our own conference before we can consider being better. Conference play is going to determine if we get a Bowl game or not without getting to the MACC.

4. Defense and Recruiting; and I expect both to be sustainable.

[GP1]

I still see a huge talent and size gap between the Zips and top MAC teams. I think they will be stuck at the 5-6 win threshold for a few years before making a MACC. A solid to great QB would definitely help expedite the process.

All good responses. If it takes a a few years, meaning five, we have just signed the wrong guy to a contract extension. It doesn't take a few years in the mac to get good. In most cases, it only takes a couple of years. We were so bad, it will take three to get to six wins and a bowl. I have nothing to gauge my opinion of talent on other than what I see and wins/loses. We have better athletic talent...it isn't great, but better. We went a year without winning a MAC game. That means there is not enough talent to win in the MAC. A team can win one MAC game a year on talent alone against another horrible team.

Here is your second quote I wanted to discuss MaxZIP, "Zips kickers have not been that much worse than other MAC kickers. Lack of kickers is a huge issue and needs to be addressed because of how it changes coaching decision making. Now I am not talking about going for 3pts down 48 in the 3rd quarter or anything. But lack of confidence in the kicking game does alter play calling beyond going for it in the grey zone." We are last in the MAC in FG percentage at 53.3%. The high mark is 94.7% with Toledo. The median mark is roughly 70%. BTW, Toledo has a great kicker. Use the link below and look at the various kicking stats. Some of you like to go to games to see potential NFL players, he may be that guy next Friday.

Link

The link above takes you to the MAC website statistical page. Another team stat we need to improve on is kick returning. We are either last or near last in KO and punt return. CK made reference to this in a post above and the stats prove him out.

I'm still going with consistency is our number one objective next year. We can and have been good at times this year so we have guys who can be good. We need them to be good more often and that is frequently the hardest thing to accomplish.

[Zipgrad01]

I still see a huge talent and size gap between the Zips and top MAC teams. I think they will be stuck at the 5-6 win threshold for a few years before making a MACC. A solid to great QB would definitely help expedite the process.

2-3 more wins are great but the metric is subject to many forces. A more intimately connected metric for coaching success is player development. Coaching in the MAC seems to be all about player development as the raw talent is more raw and less obvious in recruits at this level. Bowden has to prove that he can turn silver to gold to raise general talent level and augment with some higher profile signings.

Zips kickers have not been that much worse than other MAC kickers. Lack of kickers is a huge issue and needs to be addressed because of how it changes coaching decision making. Now I am not talking about going for 3pts down 48 in the 3rd quarter or anything. But lack of confidence in the kicking game does alter play calling beyond going for it in the grey zone.

I agree as long as the players are not leaving early.

I definitely noticed it last year, but I did not notice the size discrepancy this year. I actually recall Michigan fans being in shock at the size of our team saying that we didnt "look" like a run of the mill MAC team because of our size. I think Bowden really upgraded this area over the last year.

[UA1987]

Zips roster has Capi listed as a junior.

I hope so. I've seen Capi listed both as a Junior and a Senior. Maybe this can be cleared up by Zipsnation.

[MaxZIP]

Here is your second quote I wanted to discuss MaxZIP, "Zips kickers have not been that much worse than other MAC kickers. Lack of kickers is a huge issue and needs to be addressed because of how it changes coaching decision making. Now I am not talking about going for 3pts down 48 in the 3rd quarter or anything. But lack of confidence in the kicking game does alter play calling beyond going for it in the grey zone." We are last in the MAC in FG percentage at 53.3%. The high mark is 94.7% with Toledo. The median mark is roughly 70%. BTW, Toledo has a great kicker. Use the link below and look at the various kicking stats. Some of you like to go to games to see potential NFL players, he may be that guy next Friday.

Link

The link above takes you to the MAC website statistical page. Another team stat we need to improve on is kick returning. We are either last or near last in KO and punt return. CK made reference to this in a post above and the stats prove him out.

I'm still going with consistency is our number one objective next year. We can and have been good at times this year so we have guys who can be good. We need them to be good more often and that is frequently the hardest thing to accomplish.

The Zips were third in the MAC is 2011 and middle of the pack in 2012. I agree they must improve over this year but they have not been in the bottom of the MAC for years. The Zips need touchdowns to win in the MAC.

[MaxZIP]

I definitely noticed it last year, but I did not notice the size discrepancy this year. I actually recall Michigan fans being in shock at the size of our team saying that we didnt "look" like a run of the mill MAC team because of our size. I think Bowden really upgraded this area over the last year.

JMU had better size than the Zips. I agree that TB moving the team in the right direction. Having a big back and size on both lines will win you a few games in the MAC with pure power.

[GP1]

The Zips were third in the MAC is 2011 and middle of the pack in 2012. I agree they must improve over this year but they have not been in the bottom of the MAC for years. The Zips need touchdowns to win in the MAC.

Agreed TDs are better than FGs. However, when the coach decides to kick a FG, the kicker needs to make it. We are talking about going forward. Points put pressure on the other team. Some points are a reward for a good drive. 50% of the kicks this year resulted in the team not getting anything for moving into scoring position. A missed FG is a momentum killer.

Here is a scenario. Zips score a TD...kick off and force a turnover putting them automatically in scoring position. Zips run three plays then attempt a FG and make it. 10 point swing in the game. Miss the FG and it is as if the turnover never happened. Make it and a pressure is put on the other team to respond in a way that a lot of mac schools don't do well.

[Dr Z]

Agreed TDs are better than FGs.

Try this one time. DVR a football game, NFL, college, doesn't matter. Wait an hour and a half after the game starts. Start watching game. Fast forward through commercials, kick offs, punts, field goals and instant replays. Your in for a nice two hours of football!