MBB Eastern Michigan Wed 2/5

[Dave in Green]

The game was pretty much what I expected when I posted my pre-game thoughts earlier in this thread. Nothing was working for the Zips, and Coach Dambrot kept trying everything he could think of to kickstart the team. One unusual move near the end was shuttling Reggie in on offense and Melo on defense. Unfortunately, Reggie remained stone cold tonight and couldn't get anything to drop. Ironically, in addition to playing nice defense against EMU's guards, Melo had what I thought was the offensive play of the game when he rebounded and put back a missed Q layup, was fouled and nailed the free throw. That produced the game's first tie at 46-46 with 2:42 remaining and brought the crowd and the Zips to life.

I don't know why there's a tendency on this forum to give opposing coaches so much credit for what goes right with their teams and attribute anything that goes right with the Zips to the players, failure of the other team or dumb luck. I thought Coach Dambrot made the right moves at the right time to save a game that appeared to be lost. The bottom line of tonight's MAC games is that order has been restored. At the halfway point of the conference season, the Zips are now alone in first place at 7-2 in the East with Toledo alone in first place at 7-2 in the West.

[GoZips88]

Zeke Marshall was in attendance in the second half. Looks good and is as nice as ever.

Zips found a way to win and OU, Can't, and BG all lost. Buffalo kept pace and the two games remaining with the Bulls will be a challenge.

Go Zips!

[Hilltopper]

Somebody needs to tell Reggie to shave off that awful mustache. Ever since he started to grow it he can't make a shot.

[zippy_ua_00]

Not to mention he looks creepy

[Balsy]

Not to mention he looks creepy

+1

[ZachTheZip]

So, how 'bout that officiating...

[zippy5]

+1

Hey Adam Morrison looked creepy too. I'll take a creepy 25 ppg player any day

[skip-zip]

It's amazing how much can change in two weeks.

Many people here felt as if the new starting lineup was the factor in the fast start at EMU two weeks ago. I'll say it again. The big difference that night was that we had a guy who came out and hit shots to start the game. We didn't do that last night.

To me, the most interesting stat was that we were at 18 points at halftime and 31 points with 10 min. left in the game. Don't know if I have ever seen that in the JAR in 30+ years of watching Akron basketball.

Frenchy made mention of one other stat that was interesting:

We held EMU without a field goal in the last 7 minutes of the first half, and still trailed by 9 at halftime?? Just ridiculous.

Thanks God we can play defense. That's the second game we have won this year when shooting 3-23 from 3-point range. Unbelievable.

[skip-zip]

So, how 'bout that officiating...

There were plenty of bad calls, but maybe none worse than the guy coming over the top of Tree's back to get a jump ball call. The crowd was still booing the call even after the ensuing timeout ended. And the police had to go talk to some people down on the floor who were all over that official.

[infofan]

I saw on twitter this morning Jake was getting his finger checked/ x-rayed. Anyone have info on his status- was it his shooting hand? Hard to believe stat- We win this game partly because we shot 75% from the free throw line vs 67% for EMU. When was last time we outshot anyone from the line in a close game.

[ZachTheZip]

Considering Jake's current shooting slump, I'm guessing it was his shooting hand.

The past few games, we've been shooting much better from the line. I know that it's been a point of emphasis in practice for a few weeks now. Seems to be paying off.

[MaxZIP]

Betancourt has a different look in his eyes these days. Looks like the game is finally slowing down for him a bit.

[Hilltopper]

Tree shoots a least 50 free throws after every practice. As soon as they are done he heads right to the south basket and starts shooting.

[skip-zip]

Betancourt has a different look in his eyes these days. Looks like the game is finally slowing down for him a bit.

The game didn't need to slow down for him, he just needed to play within his capabilities. Just like the MAC title game last year, he's a non-star Quarterback on a team of stars, and just needs to be the steady guy managing the plays. When he does that, he's a real asset to us.

If you caught his interview with Frenchy last night, he talked about how BB in Puerto Rico is closer to 5 guards vs. 5 guards. So, with that kind of background, the movement of players on the floor shouldn't be an issue for him. I think his mistakes are all mental.

[clarkwgriswold]

That was a painful game to watch. Poorly played and poorly officiated.

This team may be the most frustrating UA team in years. KD is trying everything, but something seems to be missing with this squad. KD has always been able to understand the psyche of each of the players, but this group seems to be a mystery. I trust KD enough to hope they start to click, but it is getting too late in the season to "hope for hope" much longer.

[Dave in Green]

Skip, those are some good observations about Melo. The most telling stats to me about how far he's come is that in the last 5 games he's played a total of 122 minutes and had only 8 turnovers. That's an average of just 1.6 turnovers in 24 minutes per game or 1 turnover per 15 minutes. By comparison, last season Alex averaged 2.2 turnovers in 30 minutes per game or 1 turnover per 14 minutes. So over the last 5 games Melo is averaging slightly fewer turnovers per minute played than Alex. I don't know how you could ask anything more from a PG who used to be considered a turnover machine.

Obviously we'd love to see Melo score a little more. But even though he doesn't shoot much, he's been incredibly accurate over the past 5 games, hitting 5-6 from the field and 5-6 free throws. If Melo can continue to play at this level over the rest of the season, it would be a huge improvement over the PG situation we were looking at prior to the last 5 games.

[zippy_ua_00]

Hey Adam Morrison looked creepy too. I'll take a creepy 25 ppg player any day

Yes however Reggie isnt that

[skip-zip]

Skip, those are some good observations about Melo. The most telling stats to me about how far he's come is that in the last 5 games he's played a total of 122 minutes and had only 8 turnovers. That's an average of just 1.6 turnovers in 24 minutes per game or 1 turnover per 15 minutes. By comparison, last season Alex averaged 2.2 turnovers in 30 minutes per game or 1 turnover per 14 minutes. So over the last 5 games Melo is averaging slightly fewer turnovers per minute played than Alex. I don't know how you could ask anything more from a PG who used to be considered a turnover machine.

Obviously we'd love to see Melo score a little more. But even though he doesn't shoot much, he's been incredibly accurate over the past 5 games, hitting 5-6 from the field and 5-6 free throws. If Melo can continue to play at this level over the rest of the season, it would be a huge improvement over the PG situation we were looking at prior to the last 5 games.

Totally agree with you, Dave. If he can continue to manage the game, keep the turnovers to a minimum, and somehow find the correct moments to score a few baskets a game, he'll be everything we could have ever expected for the next 2-1/2 years.

I actually continue to be more and more impressed with his defense too. That's something we certainly didn't get out of his predecessor.

This is actually a pretty shocking turn of events. I was ready to give up on him about a month ago. Although, I said on several occasions that I believed he would work himself back into some kind of meaningful playing time this season. But, he's exceeding that prediction right now.

[Dave in Green]

Right, Zeke helped cover for Alex's soft D. Melo's D is good enough that Coach Dambrot now trusts having him on the floor when the Zips are trying to get a defensive stop at the end of close games, especially against teams with smaller, quicker guards. Taking the total package of offense and defense, Melo is becoming a surprisingly effective overall player. If he keeps this up, he should be considered for the team's most improved player award at the end of the season.

The latest NCAA season stats present a stark picture of just how bad Melo was earlier this season. Even counting his low turnover rate in the last 5 games, his earlier record was so bad that he's still #1 in the country in highest turnover percentage at 48.57%. That means that prior to the last 5 games, Melo was turning over the ball on more than half of his possessions.

Now for the other end of the scale, the Zips currently have an active player on the roster who ranks #5 in lowest turnover percentage among all players in D-1 college basketball since 2007! Time to give major props to Reggie McAdams and his amazing 5.43% turnover percentage.

[BirdZip]

The latest NCAA season stats present a stark picture of just how bad Melo was earlier this season. Even counting his low turnover rate in the last 5 games, his earlier record was so bad that he's still #1 in the country in highest turnover percentage at 48.57%. That means that prior to the last 5 games, Melo was turning over the ball on more than half of his possessions.

I find this statistic hard to believe--and practically impossible to calculate.

[Dave in Green]

@BirdZip, my fault for improperly expressing what turnover percentage actually is. But it is actually fairly simple to calculate as it's all done by computer analysis of official NCAA play-by-play documents submitted after each game. The formula for turnover percentage for an individual player is number of turnovers divided by total number of offensive possessions while that player is on the floor. Look at any play-by-play and you'll see that all the data is there to do the calculation. Following is a more detailed explanation of individual player turnover percentage, which helps explain why a PG who doesn't shoot a lot (like Melo) will typically have a worse turnover percentage than a catch-and-shoot 3-point shooter (like Reggie):

Individual turnover percentages take us further, although they have to be interpreted carefully. Each possession ends with one player either taking a shot or turning the ball over(*). For each player, the turnover percentage is calculated by determining the percentage of possessions that end with the ball in a player's hands that results in a turnover. Individual turnover percentage is a helpful statistic, but it has to be interpreted carefully. What a player is asked to do on offense has a big effect on turnover percentage. A catch-and-shoot three point shooter will likely have a low turnover percentage, while a ball handling point guard typically has a higher turnover percentage. Players who handle the ball a lot but seldom shoot generally have artificially high turnover percentages. For this reason, it is very important to consider individual turnover percentages in the context of what a player is asked to do. If a pass oriented point guard has 20 percent turnover percentage, he is probably helping his team, whereas a big man who turns the ball over in 20 percent of his possessions probably is hurting.

(* Note: this is not completely true. There are usually one or two turnovers per game that are charged to a team, rather than an individual player.)

Link

[zippy5]

So about half of all possessions when Melo had the ball last end in a turnover. I don't even know if that's good or not.. He rarely shoots. I'd be more interested in turnovers per times he handles the ball.

[zippy5]

For instance if Joe Basketball is a pure point guard who never shoots, he could theoretically turn the ball over one time all year and have a 100% turnover rate.. Obviously taking the other extreme, but you get my point. Seems like there can be better stats out there.

[Dave in Green]

@zippy5, some stats are available and some aren't. For example, with lots of passing a player might touch the ball 5 or 6 different times in a possession. No one tracks how many individual touches each player has during the course of a game. The 3 turnover stats that are kept in every game are total turnovers, turnovers per game and turnover percentage. It's also easy to calculate turnovers per minute played. Beyond that it gets murky. None of the individual turnover stats tell the whole story and all of the turnover stats together don't tell the whole story. They only give directional indications. Interpretation is required. That's what we're trying to do here.

What we Zips fans know from watching Melo play is that he previously turned the ball over at a fairly high rate per minute played. What's obvious from available stats is that in the last 5 games he's played longer minutes and turned the ball over fewer times. Turnover percentage may not be the best stat to consider when evaluating Melo due to the fact that it's affected by the extremely limited number of shots he takes. I probably shouldn't have even brought up turnover percentage. But, hey, I'm no statistician. I'm just searching for measurements to compare against impressions.

Here's my best estimate based on available numbers of the most meaningful evaluation of Melo's performance this season to date:

In the first 17 games he played 215 minutes and had 53 turnovers, averaging .25 turnovers per minute played.

In the last 5 games he played 122 minutes and had 8 turnovers, averaging .07 turnovers per minute played.

Big difference.

[zippy5]

In the first 17 games he played 215 minutes and had 53 turnovers, averaging .25 turnovers per minute played.

In the last 5 games he played 122 minutes and had 8 turnovers, averaging .07 turnovers per minute played.

Big difference.

That's something I can get on board with