I'm very pro using analytics as I buy into it that it helps increase your chances of winning. That said, those analytics are basing the odds on you being a baseline average team. I guess what I'm getting at is for an example if analytics is saying that Iowa should go for it on 4th down in a particular situation it's not accounting for the fact Iowa has a pitiful offense. Meanwhile, analytics might say that Tennessee shouldn't go for it in a particular situation, however, it's not taking into account their high powered offense.
Edit: I'm not exactly sure why I responded to your post as my reply is some what unrelated. It's just an idea on my mind that I felt never really gets brought up when discussing analytics.