Dave in Green

“Everybody talks about guards, guards, guards; you have to have guards, but you have to have big guys, too,” said Bilas, a former big man for Duke in the mid-1980s. “If you can’t score and defend in the post, you can’t win in the tournament. You can pull an upset, but you can’t win consistently.” Pretty much sums up the Zips vs. the Kitties.

Zips still alive in Matt Norlander's latest update: Conference unbeaten catch-up: Who remains perfect in their league?

That does it for me. Lunardi is one of the most conservative and one of the most accurate of the bracketologists. What he says here is about where our discussion in this forum has arrived. The win out but lose the MAC tournament final will get the Zips ever so close to an at large bid -- closer even than the 2006-2007 Zips team. It's possible it might happen if all the stars were to align just right. But it's likely that the Zips would fall a style point or two short. Win two at the Q.

We've been having this conversation here.

Ryan Fagan of Sporting News ranks the Zips as a #11 seed along with Mississippi, California and Maryland. I believe this is the first bylined article on a major sports site that has the Zips seeded that high. No description given of the Zips. But the comment that goes along with the article is nice: As always, Sporting News’ weekly Field of 68 is a projection of what the NCAA Tournament selection committee would do based on what’s happened so far this season.

@Dr Z, you just inserted that graphic for the beer ad, right? While I believe there may have been casual mentions on more obscure websites, I think that Glockner is the first to formally include the Zips on a mainstream website bubble watch. At the end of his bubble watch article, under Best of the Rest, Akron is listed for the first time along with Memphis, Belmont, Middle Tennessee State, Louisiana Tech, Southern Mississippi and Bucknell. Another first for the Zips.

Great bubble watch article by Andy Glockner: Akron, La. Tech among teams that should have bubble fans nervous They sit quietly in the darkness of the bubble world's subconscious until the light begins to shine on them in the middle of February each year. As major-conference teams keep whacking each other and very few take definitive steps toward the at-large spots remaining, questions about the lurkers grow louder and louder until no one can ignore them anymore. They are the low-major win collectors, ready to feast on your leftover bracket spots. They are real ... and they are bubblers' worst nightmares. ..... ..... Akron: The Zips are a perfect 12-0 in the MAC at the moment, but they only have played five top-100 games so far. They lost by four against Oklahoma State in a tournament and also lost at Creighton by 16. They have one really bad loss, in the season opener, at Coastal Carolina. This is an experienced, upperclass team with an elite 7-foot shotblocker in Zeke Marshall. EDIT: By the way, this is now the lead story on SI.com's college basketball section with a photo of Zeke and Doug McDermott with the caption: Could elite shotblocker Zeke Marshall help push 12-0 MAC squad Akron to a spot in this year's NCAA tournament?

The 2006-2007 Zips team is a great example because it so closely parallels Drexel's exclusion last season: Season record after losing in conference tournament: Zips 26-7, Drexel 27-6. RPI considered by NCAA selection committee: Both in the mid-60s. SOS considered by NCAA selection committee: Both worse than 210. Signature wins over top-ranked teams: Nothing special for either team. HS Stripes is right on target. This happens every season to a number of teams that are close to the bubble but not quite there, and every rejected team fan base goes crazy trying to make a case for why their team should have gotten the at large bid that some other marginal team got instead. It reminds me of the Olympics when you see judges scoring individual performances, and someone gets a tenth of a point more than someone else on one exercise that makes a difference between winning a medal or not. That's just the way the world works. I do think there is at least some small positive value in creating a buzz for your team. The selection committee members are constantly exposed to college basketball data throughout the season. They see the polls and they see who's getting votes, even the teams just outside the top 25. They see the stories about the teams with the longest winning streaks, and it has to register the team names at least subconsciously. They see stories about the 7-foot center whose stock is going up in the NBA mock drafts. They see widely publicized stories like the one about the coach who's willing to give up a BracketBusters home game for an away game to increase the difficulty of his team's schedule. The selection committee loves teams that try to challenge themselves with difficult schedules. This season Akron basketball is popping up in more national media stories than I can ever recall happening during a regular season. It's a small intangible, and in the end it may make no difference. But if it comes down this season to the NCAA selection committee making the final call on bubble teams and Akron is in the mix, committee members are more likely to be familiar with Akron than they ever have been in the past, and the coin flip between bubble teams with similar bodies of work just might go Akron's way. But it's still a real long shot, so no one should get their hopes up.

Sweaters, Can't, Kitties and Zips have all had their turns at the top of the MAC. Kitties and Zips have been going back and forth for the past few seasons. We all know the history. The big question is what does the future hold? Who's built to continue being at or near the top season after season? We know that the Sweaters and Can't are both really down right now and the Kitties and Zips are up. Who brings back what next season? Who might be in for another coaching change and another disruption in the near future? Right now I feel really good about being a Zips fan for the long haul.

Nope. One size does not fit all on that claim. It obviously works for the SWAC and obviously doesn't work for the Big Ten. It differs for conferences in between.

@lumberjack, how could anyone not love Chauncey? He has so much enthusiasm for the game and such a great personality. He's even more fun to watch at Zips' practices. He's non-stop trash-talking and keeps everyone loose while hustling his butt off. There's a fine balance between being too serious and not being serious enough. Teams develop a chemistry through different personalities who keep the team in balance. Chauncey keeps everyone from getting too serious. But you can tell he's serious about winning. He's played a role in the 17-game winning streak even if his knee has kept him from playing regular minutes. At the final home game of the season, you are going to hear a huge roar from the crowd when Chauncey is introduced for his final game at the JAR.

A little higher profile bubble mention from Andy Katz: If Akron (MAC) and Louisiana Tech (WAC) run the table in their respective leagues but lose in their conference tournament title games, should they get an at-large bid? I'd like to see both get rewarded.

First mention of Akron in a bubble watch: Another thing I would like to draw your attention to is the Play In game. We are entering our third year of having the last 4 in facing off in play in games. Each of the first two years, play in games featured 2 mid-major teams. Of those 4 Mid Majors, 2 of them (VCU, Iona) were not given any chance to make the tournament. I see 6 teams that fit that bill this year: Bucknell, Lehigh, Ohio, Akron, Murray State, and Belmont. Three of these teams will win their conference tournaments. The other 3 may not have the resume, but would be a legitimate threat to win some games in the tournament. MAC On the Bubble: Akron, Ohio Akron (21-4, 12-0) Akron would probably be ranked if they didn’t lose the very first game to Costal Carolina. Losing to Oklahoma State in overtime and on the road at Creighton and Detroit are not losses that you can hold against them. Computers might, but we know that Detroit has the talent to play with anyone. Middle Tennessee State and Ohio are their best wins, and that is why most “bracketologists” won’t have them in unless they win their tournament. The next two games are North Dokata State and Ohio, win those, win out, and they’ll be in good shape.

I hope everyone is keeping the tweets positive. Many media guys will respond well to informational tweets. But they tend to ignore crazies who question whether they've suffered brain damage.

B.J. Gladden Q&A About Akron Commitment Small Forward from Olympic High School B.J. Gladden commited to the University of Akron yesterday. Gladden is a very strong kid who can get to the basket pretty easily because of his body. Gladden also happens to have a pretty solid perimeter game. Gladden is a huge pick up for the Zips. He has the potential to do very big things from this team. B.J. had offers from the likes of Wake Forest and Xavier but decided to go with the school that may just be the most suitable for him. 6’'6 2013 PF BJ Gladden- Olympic HS- Charlotte, NC Gladden is a strong and physically gifted player that is excellent finishing at the rim. He has excellent body control and has the unique ability to use either hand efficiently and effectively. We project Gladden more as an undersized PF.

Basic game stats tell a small part of the story. More detailed stats tell more of the story. Stats can't tell the whole story because we're dealing with human beings, not machines. We can look at the averages, but the specifics change every game. Folks like Pomeroy have access to the entire NCAA database, and use sophisticated and proprietary software and algorithms I have neither the time, resources or expertise to crunch the numbers the way they do. But whenever I see claims about Zips team performance that don't sound right, I quick check the stats to see how the numbers support the claims. Sometimes I invest a little time and crunch some numbers myself. But I'm not really a stat geek. I just respect stats as an important element of a total evaluation that also requires understanding human nature. Free throws are one small example. This forum has been full of criticism of the Zips free throw shooting all season. How ironic is it that in a game where the Zips' field goal shooting was at its worst that their free throw shooting was at its best? Maybe as ironic as the early season criticism of the Zips' being consistently outrebounded turning around to where rebounding is a team strength? Maybe as ironic as the early season criticism of the Zips' porous defense turning around to where defense is a team strength? Maybe as ironic as Zeke the defensive specialist suddenly in the national top 10 in offensive categories? In each instance, a perceived weakness has developed into a strength when it was needed to keep the winning streak alive. It's not the same players every game, but it's someone stepping forward every game. No one has seriously questioned the physical abilities of this season's Zips players. They're not the most athletic in college basketball, but they're athletic enough. A lot of the game is mental -- shooting free throws, going after rebounds, focusing on the guy you're defending. You have to be alert, smart and mentally tough to play your best game. These are the qualities that I'm starting to see in these Zips. They aren't all the way there yet. But they've come a long way since the start of the season. I no longer go to games worrying about whether they'll hit their free throws, shoot 50% from the field or outrebound their opponent. I go to games expecting them to be better enough than their opponent in enough areas to win, with the exact formula changing from game to game. I believe that all the players are more confident that they can do whatever's necessary to win no matter what that might be. I also no longer worry that many of the games have been closer than they needed to be. I think the players are all exploring their limits and that they toy around with different approaches when they believe that they're going to win anyway. In the big game against OU, they played tough for most of the game and ended up with a bigger margin of victory than in many of their games against lesser MAC opponents. Experiencing how they will perform at the end of close games during the regular season is great preparation for tournament games. Even playing at their best, they're likely to be in close games in the MAC tournament and beyond. They need to believe that they can win close games in tough situations, because that's all they'll face if they make it to the NCAA tournament. The OU game in Athens will offer a hint of how the Zips can perform in big games in hostile environments. Anyway, that's my short answer on the Zips' late-game free throw numbers.

Here are Iona's top 100 wins from last season: #49 Nevada (home) #74 St Joe (home) #78 Loyola (home) #88 Long Island (home) #93 Denver (away) Here's how the Zips compare: #28 MTSU (home) #77 Ohio (home) #77 Ohio (away)? #82 NDSU (home)? Obviously the whole deal is off if the Zips don't win those last two. But if WMU (currently #111) could have held on to their RPI in the 90s as it was when we played them, the Zips would have had an even better top 100 win profile than Iona did last season. As it is, the Zips have fewer bad losses than Iona did last season, and should have a better RPI and SOS as well if they win out up to the MAC tournament championship game.

@skip-zip, please see my edited post with Hathaway's direct Drexel/Iona quote that I accidentally left out.

@skip-zip, I'm not sure what the source is of your information, but here's what the chair of the selection committee, Jeff Hathaway, said on national TV: The most controversial at-large selection was made when Iona was selected into the field. The Gaels won the MAAC regular season title, but then lost in the conference tournament semifinals. Hathaway said on CBS that Iona's strength of schedule was what put the Gaels into the field. Iona beat no one any more noteworthy than Drexel in non-conference play, and had a worse overall won-lost record. The focus should not be on why Drexel was excluded but why Iona was included. Examine Iona's body of work last season, including RPI and SOS, and it's much closer than Drexel's to the Zips' profile this season. Heck, Iona was 25-7 after they lost in their conference semi-final game. In the regular season they lost to #293 William and Mary and #224 Siena, and their best win was over #49 Nevada at home, comparable to the Zips home win over MTSU. Plain and simple, Iona had a better SOS and RPI than Drexel, and the chair of the selection committee confirmed that's how Iona got its at large bid. EDIT: Sorry, I left out another direct Hathaway quote: He defended Iona, which many people feel took Drexel's spot. "Drexel was well over 200 in strength of schedule, while Iona had some very good top-100 wins. I think we got that one right," Hathaway said.

A week after finally entering the CBS Sports Mid-Major Power Pyramid at #15 (dead last), the Zips take a giant leap up into the second tier at #8: 8. Akron (21-4). Why it's here: The nation's longest winning streak is now at 17 games, and we've about reached the point where the Zips deserve widespread love for what they've been able to pull together here. Something you should know: Outside of the sleep-not-out-of-their-eyes-yet loss to Coastal Carolina that opened the season, Akron's other losses are to Creighton, Oklahoma State and Detroit, three teams who could easily be in the tournament. Jerry Palm says: No. 13 in the South, as of early Monday morning. Up next: Friday vs. North Dakota State.

And Akron moves up to #30 in the MRI rankings.

The Boston Globe's Joe Sullivan continues his love affair with the Zips: This week’s George Mason (best mid-major): Akron. The Zips have won 17 in a row.

Just think, if a team won all of its games, it would only have one winning streak for the whole season.

It also looked that way to me from my seat in the JAR. Last season Chauncey had more speed, quickness and explosiveness. He could not only knock down 3s but drive around his man into the lane for easy layups, slams and short jumpers. At the beginning of this season, I fully expected Chauncey to take over Q's role of driving the lane and taking it to the rim. But with his knee problem, Chauncey has scored exactly 20 2-point field goals in 22 games played -- less than a single 2-point field goal per game played. Needless to say, this also has to be affecting his ability to defend.

#27 in the Coaches Poll is extremely impressive. Zips (19 points) are only 4 behind #26 St. Louis (23 points). But most of the teams in the lower part of the top 25 are pretty big names, so it will take a big stumble from one of them for the Zips to break into the top 25. #25 Notre Dame has 50 points. Zips just have to keep winning.