Dave in Green

I'm confident that the many thoughtful readers of this forum found my answer to be appropriate, in that it addressed the question of how the NCAA selection committee views schedule difficulty -- SOS. That's all that really matters to the Zips team, and that's all that should really matter to Zips fans. I don't disagree that SOS is an imperfect measure, just like RPI. But that's the system the NCAA uses. There was a really good analysis written last March on SB Nation of the selection committee's choice of Iona over Drexel, and how the flawed SOS metric played into that: Why The Selection Committee Should Stop Using Non-Conference Strength of Schedule

I can't speak for Zach's definition of "significantly more difficult schedule." What matters is the way the NCAA selection committee measures schedule difficulty, and that's by SOS. The Zips' SOS this season is better than Drexel's was last season. SOS -- especially OOC SOS -- is a fact of life with the NCAA selection committee. Learn to live with it.

Let's not go shooting at mirages. No one in this thread has suggested that we "dismiss Drexel's parallels" to the Zips. All the discussion has been about pointing out the parallels and the fine differences. Let's look at the facts. For example, the strength of the CAA last season should not be overestimated. That whole conference was down last season. In 2010-2011, the CAA's conference strength was ranked a healthy #10 in the country. But last season they were only ranked #15, barely above the #17 MAC. So the CAA pedigree didn't carry as much clout for Drexel as it would have in previous seasons when the CAA was much stronger. The weakness of the CAA last season helped contribute to Drexel's inferior RPI and SOS, along with a weak OOC SOS. The NCAA selection committee picked Iona over Drexel (even though Iona had one more loss) primarily due to Drexel's worse RPI and SOS. This season, the MAC is once again ranked #17, slightly behind where the CAA was last season (#15). But the MAC East is ranked higher than the MAC West, and the Zips play 10 of their 16 conference games against the MAC East. So the Zips' actual conference RPI is right on top of where the CAA was last season. In the scenario of the win out but lose the MAC tournament championship game, the Zips would be ranked better in RPI, SOS and winning percentage than Drexel was last season. That could give the Zips a slightly better chance than Drexel depending on the final resumes of other bubble teams. It's still a long shot.

Team Rankings has a ranking for Last 10 Games Power Rating in which the Zips are currently ranked #24.

Ah, a couple of points help explain the Zips' high ranking: •Degrades older results (Zips losses are all far in the past) •Punishes bad home play (Zips unbeaten at home)

Zips #19? That reminds me of the old joke that if you put an infinite number of chimpanzees in front of an infinite number of typewriters (computer keyboards these days) for an infinite amount of time, one would eventually write Hamlet. If there were an infinite number of ranking systems over an infinite amount of time, one would eventually rank the Zips #1. But, as a Zips fan, I still like the optimism of that poll.

As long as we've drifted off into Kittyland here, let's take a look at a devastating stat for Kitty fans. StatSheet.com features a stat they call Experience Tracker. It tracks the average class year per minute played. The sum of minutes each player plays is multiplied by their class year (Freshmen = 1, Sophomore = 2, Junior = 3, and Senior = 4) and is divided by the total team minutes. Out of 347 D-I teams, the Kitties are 345th with a score of 3.48. Only Middle Tennessee State and Valparaiso have more minutes played by seniors who won't be around next season. By comparison, the Zips rank 176th with a score of 2.72. But the Zips are actually much better than that, as Tree and Harney, who both start and play long minutes, are only technically juniors (3s). In reality they're in their second playing seasons (2s) and expected to petition and get 5th seasons of eligibility based on their good scholastic standing. In other words, the Zips are much, much more loaded with experienced, talented players than the Kitties next season and beyond.

It's funny, because David Borges voted for Louisiana Tech as his #25, and I'm an LT grad. When I look at Tech's record, they have one less loss than the Zips and they're also undefeated in their conference (WAC). The only other thing I see in Tech's record other than one less loss is that the WAC is ranked slightly higher than the MAC. But comparing the two teams directly, UA ranks higher in RPI and SOS because the Zips have a stronger OOC SOS. Maybe when sportswriters get to #25 on their ballots they just flip a coin.

@zen, I was wondering about the recent burst of Kitty fan interest in ZipsNation, almost as if this was a catnip farm. They're so active here that I've started sneezing every time I log on. I think you may be on to something. They're here to try to divert attention to the past because the present is not such a good place for Kitty fans, let alone the future. On the other hand, the Zips are in the national spotlight this season and loaded with talent for the future.

I was thinking of going through the play-by-plays of the last few games to check the scoring. But Elton beat me to it in this nice article just posted this evening.

I think the original statement was that the Zips would be a nightmare matchup for tOSU this season. I agree with this based on the fact that this is UA's best team and tOSU's team is one of their weaker ones when compared with other seasons. The chances for an upset would be greater this season than almost any other. The nightmare would be for mighty tOSU to be upset by insignificant UA. It would shake the state of Ohio's basketball foundation much more than OU upsetting Michigan last season or tOSU losing to an upstart mid-major from far across the country. Ohioans generally believe that no mid-major Ohio basketball team could possibly upset mighty tOSU, and that's why being matched against any Ohio mid-major in the NCAA tournament would be a nightmare matchup for tOSU.

Drexel's actual RPI at the time the NCAA selection committee was looking at them last year was only #70. Even worse, their SOS was a miserable #248. That was even cited by the selection committee as a reason why Drexel was passed over for an at large bid. By comparison, the Zips' RPI is already in the high 40s and continuing to climb, and the Zips' projected SOS is #157 -- both considerably better than Drexel's numbers last season. The scenario of the Zips winning out but losing in the MAC tournament championship game would also leave them with one less loss than Drexel had last season. So in every category, the Zips would be better positioned than Drexel was when the selection committee met last season. But the odds would still be against the Zips as there are a lot of teams right around the Zips' level fighting over only a few at large bids that are in play.

Up to #47 in BPI, one position ahead of Butler. Up to #49 in Pomeroy, with offense slipping slightly to #60 but defense moving into the top 50 for the first time this season at #48. Another one I hadn't really looked at before is the Team Rankings Overall Power Rating, where the Zips are currently #45.

The way I see it, the Kitties had an overall record of 85-56 in the 4 seasons that John Groce was head coach. Groce-coached teams seem to have a characteristic of both losing and winning games they're not expected to. Groce was good at coaching the Kitties to big wins despite so-so season records, and he's now doing the same at Illinois. He coached the Kitties to 2 MAC tournament championship wins in 4 years, an upset of Georgetown in his 1st NCAA tournament and a Sweet 16 run in the 2nd. Look at the teams his Illini have lost to and who they've beaten this season. I'm leaning more and more toward the theory that Groce has a unique ability to coach his teams to great performances in critical games. The Kitties still have to prove that they can do this without Groce.

I'll just note that Holmes' blocking ability translated directly from D2 JuCo, where he led the country in blocking, to D-I college, where he's #5 in the country in block percentage (Zeke is currently #9). Holmes shot 62% from the field in JuCo and is already at 63.7% in D-I. His rebounding per minute played is only slightly behind his JuCo rate. So he's already adjusted pretty well to D-I despite the disparity between D-I and D2 JuCo. Now I seriously doubt his 1st team All-American status will transfer over. But for a player in his sophomore season with less than a year's experience in D-I, there are many signs that he could develop into a high-level MAC player. We'll see over the next couple of seasons.

You have to look at the remaining schedules next to each other (M = Memphis, Z = Zips). If both teams keep winning, the last character in each line below would be Z for Zips ahead, M for Memphis ahead or T for tie. M - 2/20 = T Z - 2/22 = Z M - 2/23 = T M - 2/26 = M Z - 2/27 = T Z - 3/2 = T* M - 3/2 = T* Z - 3/5 = T* M - 3/5 = T* Z - 3/8 = Z M - 3/9 = T * On games where they play on the same day, whoever wins first will be back in the lead for a few hours at most, but at the end of the day they'd be tied again. So the only time that Memphis would actually have the longest winning streak in the country by themselves for more than a few hours would be from 2/26 to 2/27. This back and forth between Akron and Memphis could actually create even more attention than the Zips are getting now. When tied, every story about Memphis would mention that they were tied with the Zips for longest winning streak in the country.

@Big Zip, Coach Dambrot has already made his big statement about the importance of the BracketBusters game when he made national news by volunteering to trade a home game for an away game to gain even more value. He's not going to reverse his position on the importance of this game. The Zips have reached a point where every game counts because they've grown into a strong enough program to earn an NCAA tournament at-large bid if they win their OOC games. @fargobison, I was joking about NDSU being upset due to looking ahead to the Zips game. I was aware of the Bison losing Taylor Braun, and would have mentioned that in the pre-game discussion. We Zips fans understand how tough it is to win without key players as our two starting forwards had to sit out the first 3 games of the season due to an NCAA clerical paperwork error, and we lost 2 of those 3 games. We know that the Bison will come to Akron pumped up at the chance to break the nation's current longest winning streak on national TV, and that you'll give us a good battle even without your leading scorer. On the issue of the Zips and Memphis going back and forth with the longest winning streak, that's not bad company to be associated with, as Memphis has a strong pedigree in college basketball. But they're not invincible this season. They've had some close calls, beating a weak Marshall team by just 1 point in Memphis, for example. Memphis still has a couple of tough games left on their schedule, too -- Southern Mississippi at home and Xavier on the road. The Zips just have to keep focused on winning their next game.

@Quickzips, it was Holmes' JuCo stats that told me more about what he's capable of doing. Right now he's playing the role for BGSU that Coach Orr wants him to play. From his BGSU stats you'd never imagine him attempting a 3-pointer. Yet his JuCo stats show that he was a 40% 3-point shooter. He was also by far the leading scorer on his JuCo team, which tells me that a scorer's mentality lurks inside that shot-blocking frame. I would not have even mentioned the guy going into last night's game if I didn't believe he had way more game than his BGSU stats to date would indicate, and that he was worth watching.

I'm with you, B&G. If she wrote that article when Zips basketball attendance was down, she'd be labeled a Debbie Downer even if it was all true. By doing it in the middle of the big winning streak when attendance is on the upswing, she just feeds into all the new-found love for Zips basketball. Critical mass is reached when something is so hot that everyone wants to be a part of it, but there aren't enough seats available to accommodate everyone. I never in my life expected to see a crowd like I saw tonight for a losing MAC East team like BGSU. Let the good times keep rolling.

Uh, did you consider the fact that saying that this game doesn't matter would be saying that it doesn't matter if the Zips continue the longest current winning streak in college basketball? I can assure you that Coach Dambrot understands the value to UA of continuing this winning streak as long as possible. Everyone at UA understands this. Stuffed animals understand this.

Funny that our posts were made at exactly the same time. You know I always appreciate and respect your analysis. In the case of Holmes, I think I just did a little deeper research on the guy and saw enough in the stats to earn my respect for his potential. I think if you had gone through all the same data I did that you would have arrived at a similar conclusion. I completely agree with you that BGSU will need a lot more than Holmes to be a MAC threat next season.

The Zips continue to perform at the level required to beat MAC teams. They do it in different ways, and it isn't always pretty. But it was funny to hear everyone around us complaining about the Zips' poor free throw shooting after they went 1-5 early in the game, and then see them nail their next 18 in a row to seal the win and finish 19-23 from the line. Their 2- and 3-point shooting percentages were awful. But they dominated the boards and in other areas to offset the poor field goal shooting. This is the way these Zips operate. They keep finding different ways to get the job done with different players taking on different roles, like having the 6-8 Harney guarding a 5-10 PG. Near the end of the game we were discussing how miserable we used to be in past seasons toward the end of games when the Zips would just fall apart. This team is mentally tough at the end of games. They always believe they can do something to win, and they've done it 17 times in a row now. Nothing lasts forever, but this sure is a nice, long ride. With another 2 wins this week and more upset losses by some of their closest competitors in the national rankings, I'm looking forward to seeing the Zips get more votes in the top 25 polls and move up in the mid-major polls. At some point, some bracketologist is going to break the ice and start mentioning the Zips as a potential bubble team. If not this week, maybe the next as long as they keep winning. Oh, and I can now report firsthand that Richaun Holmes is able to play 28 minutes against the D-I team with the nation's longest winning streak without showing a sign of sucking wind. We also now know that he's fully capable of being BGSU's high scorer (15 points) based on 5-6 from the field and 5-5 free throws. He also led in rebounds (8) and blocks (4), swatting away shots by both Zeke and Pat. So I'll stand by my pre-game scouting report on this guy, and go further to say that it's not only possible but likely that he will be BGSU's best all-around player next season based on my eye test tonight. Please don't shoot the scouting report messenger.

@zippy5, I think if you go back and look at the context of the discussion, you'll see that it's entirely appropriate to compare the playing time of the two best shot blockers currently in the MAC after ZachTheZip made his comment about Holmes' PT. Of course it can't be an absolutely direct comparison as Holmes played long minutes as a freshman star player on his JC team while Zeke spent a lot of time on the bench as a freshman with the D-I Zips, and Holmes is playing shorter minutes in his second college season but first at the D-I level, while Zeke didn't average that many more minutes in his second college season at the D-I level. But enough of this hair splitting. I'm off to see with my own eyes how much air Holmes sucks tonight.

@akronzips71, maybe it didn't show up on the webcasts you were watching. But I can assure you from my seat in the JAR that Zeke could be seen sucking air big time in short minutes in his first season with the Zips. He would not have played a lot more minutes even without foul trouble. He's come a long way from where he started. @Quickzips, as a freshman JC player, Holmes led his team in scoring (18.4 ppg), rebounding (9.2 rpg) and blocks (5.6 bpg with a total of 169 to lead the country). He shot 62% from the floor and 78% from the free throw line (really good for a big). He even hit 6-15 3-pointers (40%). I wouldn't underestimate his shooting/scoring potential. He was a 1st team JC All-American from among more than 200 colleges. He was a complete player at the JC level as a freshman. That doesn't always translate to D-I. But he might surprise some people next season with his level of play in all aspects of the game, especially if BGSU is otherwise short on talent and they need to find a go-to player. Anyway, I prefer to overestimate opponents rather than underestimate them.

@ZachThe Zip, Holmes is averaging 18.8 minutes per game in his first season of D-I basketball. Zeke averaged 18.6 19.6 minutes per game over his first two seasons of D-I basketball.