Dave in Green

Thanks for sharing that positive Zips stat. The analysis could use a little work.

Pohl was blindsided at the end of the first half and may have shown concussion symptoms as he came out after halftime without his shoulder pads and was on the sideline.

Audio/video recordings. Of course they could be faked liked the ones of men walking on the Moon.

It's not as clear cut as you may think. Keeping up with new NCAA rules is a full-time job. But in 2013 they introduced a new rule that doesn't allow the ball to be spiked with less than 3 seconds left on the game clock. Looking at the video, the clock was just changing from 3 to 2 seconds as the ball was snapped. There's a fair chance the officials may have ruled against a spike, so going for the pass may have been the best option under the circumstances. NCAA Football Rule Change 2013: Spiking the Ball with Under Three Seconds Left

Forecast is now "mostly sunny." How many extra fans is that worth?

Story link Wagner had the heart of a warrior before Ianello took over. It's one thing to hear players grumbling about a new coach and a new system, which is not uncommon. It's another thing to add up all the post-mortem wreckage and tie it all together. It was much worse than I ever imagined.

Wow. As much as Zips fans were hurting, the players were hurting even more.

We talked earlier about fans looking at stats differently than coaches do. Coaches have access to more advanced statistics, they spend more time analyzing them and they're smarter about the fine details of the game than most fans. So what happens if we try to take a closer look at why the Zips red zone scoring percentage is so low. (Disclaimer: I am not nor have ever been a football coach). The first thing to consider is that scoring percentage is based on both touchdowns and field goals. The success rate of field goal attempts is generally higher than for touchdowns. In the red zone a field goal attempt is often considered a chip shot gimme. So more field goal attempts tend to push up a team's red zone scoring percentage. The Zips' 19 trips to the red zone rank them a slightly above average #61, but they're currently tied for 4th from the bottom in field goal attempts per game with a total of 5 and an average of only 1 -- all short kicks from the red zone. The first 2 short field goal attempts of the season failed and the kicker was replaced, resulting in making 3 of the last 3. The total of 3-5 is a poor 60% for the season. One conclusion to draw from this is that if the Zips had started the season with a more reliable field goal kicker, and if they had attempted a more typical number of field goals in their 19 trips to the red zone, their red zone scoring percentage would be more respectable than the current 53.3%.

My perspective on the Zips' red zone stat over the past two weeks is that it was rendered inconsequential by virtue of the Zips' defense holding its two opponents to a total of just 16 points or an average of 8 points per game. Wins and losses are determined by the sum of scoring offense and scoring defense. The Zips are currently a lofty #28 in scoring defense, but a lowly #111 in scoring offense, with the #126 red zone scoring percentage being a major contributor. The question is whether fans should be overly worried about any one aspect of the Zips' game as long as all aspects of their game combined result in a winning margin.

2014 Zips red zone scoring: 53.33% (season) 58.33% (last 3) 60.00% (last 1) Clearly it's been trending up.

Nah, you fixed it for yourself. You own it.

You didn't make a mistake. You were correct that the conversation was primarily regarding fans analyzing stats and trends. Most fans don't have access to advanced stats like coaches do, and most wouldn't know how to make use of them even if they had them. For fans, readily available stats can be fun to follow but only give a small part of the total picture. They need to be taken in proper perspective.

It would have been easier but inaccurate. What I originally stated was correct in that it conveyed a general conversational idea to all but the odd outlier obsessed with parsing and challenging every word that could possibly be taken out of context and misconstrued.

No offense taken by me. You express an attitude that's not uncommon among some fans. There's no shame in either having some interest or no interest in stats. What really matters is how much coaching staffs study stats and use them to their advantage in devising winning game plans. Ask Coach Bowden or someone on his staff if they find certain stats useful. Author Bill Connelly spoke with many coaches (including at least one MAC coach) for his book on the growing use of advanced stats by college football teams. The following exchange from an SI interview is entertaining:

You haven't been to a Zips game lately, have you? Every game I go to the Zips players are looking up in the stands and urging the fans to make some noise. Small crowds don't make as much noise as big crowds.

A trend tells you exactly where you went from where you were at the time the measurements were made. Of course there are no guarantees that a trend will remain consistent, or progress, or regress. There are no guarantees on most things in life. That's what the next set of data measures. Each successive set of data tells you which way things are trending at that point. What we all want to see with the Zips is a consistent trend upward, game after game after game. But consistent trends are rare. There are usually ups and downs along the way. A general upward trend would be just fine.

Because the players looks up in the stands and see you're not there and think, if they don't care why should I?

"Well, opinions are like ***holes. Everybody has one." -Harry Callahan Statistics don't lie. It's the interpretation of statistics that can deceive. But over the years I've also found that women can be deceptive, and I've never been tempted to give up on them.

Nate was listed at 6-7 as a freshman at UA and has been variously listed as either 6-7 or 6-8 ever since. Not sure which is growing more, the man or the myth.

I missed it if anyone had mentioned Big Dog's broken wrist prior to Hilltopper. GT wrote about it a few days ago and I forgot to post a link.

Jeremiah Wood has won multiple Player of the Year and MVP awards in Finland and France, and has earned the nickname "Mr. Double-Double." Romeo Travis has earned similar awards in several countries, including All-Israeli League Player of the Year. Dru Joyce has been a starting PG in Germany for years. Nate is right in that mix but has had fewer years to prove himself as a pro. He has a shot at outdoing all of them.

Cumulative stats tell where you've been. Trends tell where you're going. As the Zips transition from some tough OOC games to relatively easier MAC games, the stats should trend up. Where the Zips already look pretty good in cumulative stats is in total defense, where they're a healthy #44 in the country. If they defend MAC teams the way they defended Pitt, the Zips could crack the top 25 in total defense.

Some people don't believe in stats.

The more I look at the roster, the more I think this is going to be an unsettled season in terms of lineup. The Zips have a few veterans who haven't performed at a level that would guarantee them long minutes and a couple of true freshmen and a couple of redshirt freshmen who are talented enough to vie for significant minutes. So I think we're in for another season that will cause indigestion for fans who are uncomfortable with anything other than a fixed lineup with the same 5 starters and same 3 subs getting all but a few minutes of PT. Aside from the normal development that might be expected of every player as they evolve from freshmen to seniors, I think the following points are key to the Zips becoming a really good team this season: * Tree's maturity -- he has the physical tools and intensity to be MAC Player of the Year. In his senior season and with Q having graduated, Tree should be the unquestioned leader of this team. He must lead by example and not fall into funks. He needs to be consistently positive no matter what anyone else on his team, anyone on the opposing team, the refs or even himself might do that he doesn't like. Get over it and play like a true champion at all times. * Pat's self-confidence -- he has the physical tools and skills to be the best center in the MAC but becomes tentative when he makes mistakes. He needs to develop the attitude that he's the man who owns the paint on both offense and defense, shrug off any mistakes he makes and pour on more intensity. The team with the best center has a big advantage in winning the MAC championship, as Zeke and Shayne Whittington have recently demonstrated. Pat has that potential. * Noah's learning curve -- he has the pedigree to be an outstanding college PG. He's a winner who played at a high level in HS alongside NBA-level talent (Shabazz Muhammad). He's a pass-first PG who can knock down the open 3 or drive to the bucket. He has the potential to be the Zips starting PG for the next 4 seasons. But this is the only season he gets to play alongside the Zips' best proven player (Tree). Can he make the adjustment from high level HS ball to D1 college ball quickly enough this season to make everyone forget the Zips ever had a problem at PG? * Wild cards -- How much did BJ and Aaron benefit from their redshirting, and how much will they surprise us by what they can do on court this season? Aaron obviously benefited physically by growing from 6-7, 193 to 6-8, 215. That's a big 2 guard who's now the same height and 10 pounds heavier than his Gahanna-Lincoln predecessor Nate Linhart. Could he quickly become, as Nate did, the shut-down defender who could guard the other team's best player at any of the 5 positions? Could BJ quickly develop into a point forward working alongside the backup PG to give the Zips a strong point presence at all times? Those are some of the things I'm going to be watching most closely as the season goes on.

GoZips, Nate was listed at 6-8 way back when he was still playing for the Zips. Are you sure you aren't shrinking?