Some well-researched and highly thought out posts by wadszip in this thread. Kudos.
As for wrestling, your point about some of the most fertile recruiting grounds in the area is noted. However, Can't having a nationally-ranked program is detrimental. As an analogy, consider academics...what are UA's nationally-ranked programs?...Polymer science/engineering and I/O psychology. Does Can't have those programs?...Nope. UA is competitive nationally because there is not a struggle to be the best in this region of the state. Also, does Can't have men's soccer?...Nope. There's a reason for that too.
If UA adds a men's athletics program, it needs to be tennis. Look at what the woman have done / are doing. A men's program could be equally as successful. On-campus facilities are warranted, and a men's program would use the same facilities with no additional capital costs. Also, UA used to have a men's program, but I believe it was eliminated sometime in the late '90's. (Correct me if I'm wrong on that.) Tennis and wrestling are also the same size in terms of roster and coaches. I understand if you're partial to wrestling, but it just won't happen.
The likelihood of any programs being added before we are in a more lucrative conference and the football program being in better shape on the field (and subsequently on the balance sheet) are slim to none. Then, there's the Title IX issue.
With regard to the conference move, I think it's definitely UA and UT. I also think it's a toss up if only one is taken. UT has the better past, UA has the brighter future potential and larger media market. Either way, it would be a good move both for the adding conference and the institution that moves and a big loss for the MAC.