I'm not in either camp because I haven't seen a good, thorough analysis of which strategy has the best success rate. If there was solid data supporting the fact that the success rate of lower level college head coaches moving to a higher level was much higher than higher level assistants moving to head coaching positions, I'd be more inclined to lean that way.Obviously there are successful and unsuccessful examples of each. Ultimately you have to thoroughly analyze the individual candidates and weigh that along with the factor of which camp tends to have the higher percentage of success.That would be an enormous undertaking to say the least. If you're volunteering, here's a data point to follow Of course either approach is a crap shoot. I like the idea that a head coach in a lower division at least was forced at one time to make all of the key decisions for a (presumably) successful program. I'm also more prone to consider the guy who doesn't merely take the reigns for a team that has already established a consistent level of success. The coach who takes nothing (or very little) and makes something out of it (Leavitt, Golden, Winters, Cristobal, Edsell, etc.) are the ones who impress me the most. But it's only my opinion. I wish there was a study out there on this subject. With all of the money riding on these hires, you sure think there would be.