At Large Consideration

[odhgibo]

We will not get an at-large if we lose to OU in the finals, regardless of the win streak.

Eeking out games against Miami and CMU doesn't impress anyone. Nor should it.

Listen to Cap'n, because he's right on this one. Winning out in the manner as occurred with CMU and Miami but losing in the tournament (finals or otherwise) will do no more than bump the ratings from around #50 to around #40. Given the middling SoS and lack of quality OOC road wins, that won't be enough to sway the committee off some 4th or 5th place team from a power conference or even a 3rd or 4th place team from a better conference.

The streak is nice but irrelevant in the big picture. Who you beat and where you beat them is more important than how many bad teams you've beaten.

The fault doesn't lie with Akron or the committee. The league just doesn't have enough good teams in it to provide quality wins.

[Captain Kangaroo]

Before I post, one question. Does the runner up MAC school get automatic NIT?

If you win the MAC regular season title, you are guaranteed an NIT bid.

[MontrealExposloveZippy]

Well remember the tournament is a 68 team format now, so there are a few more slots for Bubble teams to capture-

[bigzipguy]

A win against OKLA St ,which should have happened, would be making all the difference, despite the loss to Coastal Carolina.

[Captain Kangaroo]

Well remember the tournament is a 68 team format now, so there are a few more slots for Bubble teams to capture-

It didn't help Drexel last season.

The 2011-12 Dragons had a nearly equivalent run to the one the Zips are riding...in a better conference...and got snubbed. Unless we start beating some marquee teams during the regular season, the writing is on the wall...win the MAC tourney or go to the NIT.

Having two of our better players out for the Oklahoma State game doesn't help us. It only would help Oklahoma State if they'd have had the same situation, and lost to the Zips. THEN the NCAA would justify them as a bubble team selection. T Boone Pickens carries slightly more weight than Joe Akron.

I really don't want to see a packed Barley House on national television with the team and fans crossing their fingers and praying for an at-large, because it will not end well for the Zips' faithful.

We need to win the MAC tourney.

[GP1]

If you win the MAC regular season title, you are guaranteed an NIT bid.

Thanks.

While on the surface this may seem like a good idea, it is actually a method whereby the NCAA Tournament Committee can screw a mid major such as Akron and not look so bad by doing so...."Sorry best team in the MAC. We are going to screw you, but don't worry because you can go play in the NIT. We don't really want you anyhow regardless of how good you are. We have $771 million to make and we don't think your presence helps us increase that number now or in the future." With that said, Akron needs to win the MAC Tournament to get into the big dance. If not, NIT bound.

This is a "be careful what you sign" lesson. The guarantee NIT bid is a type of limited warranty we and schools like us have. If we don't win the MAC Tournament, we are guaranteed post season play by having this limited warranty. Never buy a limited warranty because it is written by the manufacturer's lawyers. In many ways, the automatic NIT bid limits our options just like a warranty limits your options if you buy one.

The automatic NIT bid sounds too good to be true because it is.

[MontrealExposloveZippy]

Brackets

Do you think it would be possible for the Zips to ever get one of those meaningless play-in #16 seeds?

Right now, Bryant U is listed as one of them and they are 16-6 with losses to some pretty bad teams.

I guess those 15, 16 seeds are usually reserved for the bottom-dwelling conferences like the Northeast Conference

[GP1]

Do you think it would be possible for the Zips to ever get one of those meaningless play-in #16 seeds?

I don't see it. Those spots are for teams much lower down the pecking order than we are. I would actually be upset if we got one as it would be a complete lack of respect from the Committee. I think Akron is as good as any 12 seed they could come up with. No reason to look for a 16 seed in a rinky-dink play-in.

[Dave in Green]

Correction to my previous post: At the time that the NCAA selection committee was considering last season's tournament at-large selections, Drexel was #71 in RPI. The Zips would need a much higher RPI than that to get strong consideration for an at-large bid if they won the rest of their games but lost in the MAC tournament championship game. The Zips are currently #53 in RPI.

[MDZip]

Brackets

Do you think it would be possible for the Zips to ever get one of those meaningless play-in #16 seeds?

Right now, Bryant U is listed as one of them and they are 16-6 with losses to some pretty bad teams.

I guess those 15, 16 seeds are usually reserved for the bottom-dwelling conferences like the Northeast Conference

The lowest at large seeds are typically around 11/12. The lowest seeds are the conference champs of the lowest ranked conferences, which means that there are around 18 conferences whose champion would not have had a good enough season to have been selected as an at-large. This is what the MAC has had the last several years with the MAC champ being seeded somewhere between 13 and 15. When you see two teams battling in a 16 play-in game, each of those teams won their conference. There are no at-large bids down that far. The way they have it set now is that 4 16 seeds play for the right to advance as well as the four lowest selected at large teams. If the Zips happen to get in as an at-large this year, they could well be looking at one of those play in matchups.

[MontrealExposloveZippy]

Go Zips

[odhgibo]

Correction to my previous post: At the time that the NCAA selection committee was considering last season's tournament at-large selections, Drexel was #71 in RPI. The Zips would need a much higher RPI than that to get strong consideration for an at-large bid if they won the rest of their games but lost in the MAC tournament championship game. The Zips are currently #53 in RPI.

This is correct, as far as it goes, and nothing on the remaining schedule wii do much to move that #53 much higher. Coach KD was smart to push for a road BB game but, alas, it didn't happen.

The "as far as it goes" qualifier was added because the committee explains in excruciating detail each year that RPI is not the sole factor. They also look at factors such as who you beat, who beat you, when you won, and where you won/lost. Zero wins against top 50 teams and a 190-200 SoS (thank you MAC) are nigh unto automatic disqualifiers.

I don't like it, but it is what it is.

[zippy5]

This is correct, as far as it goes, and nothing on the remaining schedule wii do much to move that #53 much higher. Coach KD was smart to push for a road BB game but, alas, it didn't happen.

The "as far as it goes" qualifier was added because the committee explains in excruciating detail each year that RPI is not the sole factor. They also look at factors such as who you beat, who beat you, when you won, and where you won/lost. Zero wins against top 50 teams and a 190-200 SoS (thank you MAC) are nigh unto automatic disqualifiers.

I don't like it, but it is what it is.

Is everyone just spouting off without doing any research? Rpiforecast has us at 30 if we win out in the regular season, and 39 with a loss at OU. These are not taking the MAC tournament into account either.

[bUAkronG]

Here's something to consider. Was Drexel being heralded as a potential Cinderella team during the middle of the season? This Zips team has been receiving national publicity as a team that could make a run in the NCAA tourney. They are on the radar of many national media members. At the very least we will be mentioned as a snubbed team. But then again, that doesn't matter much.

[Dave in Green]

Is everyone just spouting off without doing any research? .....

Well, not everyone. Some folks don't have time to do research while others don't believe in it. But everyone has an opinion. There are some seriously good analysis stories on the internet that go into fine detail about exactly how the NCAA selection committee works. A quick read of a few of those articles would quickly put an end to some of the common myths. But I don't expect to see the myths disappear from sports forums in my lifetime.

[Dave in Green]

@Akronnnnnnnn, yes, Drexel's winning streak was a big Cinderella story last season. Many sports writers considered Drexel to be the most interesting case for the NCAA selection committee. No single factor killed Drexel's chances. It was the total body of work that didn't stand up when compared with other at-large candidates. The Zips are in a similar situation. They would literally have to win every remaining game except the MAC tournament championship game to have a better chance this season than Drexel had last season. One more loss before the MAC tournament championship game would end what remote chance there might be for an at-large bid.

[odhgibo]

Many sports writers considered Drexel to be the most interesting case for the NCAA selection committee. No single factor killed Drexel's chances. It was the total body of work that didn't stand up when compared with other at-large candidates. The Zips are in a similar situation. They would literally have to win every remaining game except the MAC tournament championship game to have a better chance this season than Drexel had last season. One more loss before the MAC tournament championship game would end what remote chance there might be for an at-large bid.

+1, and the general weakness of the conference means that the end result for the 2012-13 Zips likely would be the same as it was for the 2011-12 Dragons.

[Dave in Green]

The NCAA often brings in groups of sports media to go through the tournament selection process the same way the NCAA selection committee does. It helps educate the media on what really goes on, and the media can then report what they experienced to help educate the public. As I mentioned earlier, there are many, many good articles on the internet that explain things in excruciating detail. No two journalists see and describe things exactly the same way, so the more articles you read, the better educated you become. For example, here's Elton Alexander's report from a few years ago.

[odhgibo]

There are some seriously good analysis stories on the internet that go into fine detail about exactly how the NCAA selection committee works. A quick read of a few of those articles would quickly put an end to some of the common myths.

The Elton Alexander article linked above includes the following:

The perception is the selection process ... is a randomly moving target designed to get name brands in and keep off-brands out. In reality, it's more of a tightly orbiting target, still moving, yet easy to see and easy to hit if a team has enough arrows. Arrows would be defined as quality wins; a quality schedule, particularly in the non-conference; success on the road; success against Top 50 and Top 100 teams; winning streaks; average RPI of a team's wins; average RPI of a teams losses and much more.

Apply the list of known "arrows" to Akron:

• Quality wins at home - MTSU, OU (perhaps NDSU in the BB)
  
• Quality wins on road - None yet (perhaps OU)
  
• Quality schedule - SoS is relatively weak, due in large part to the conference
  
• Road success - Marginal, other than in-conference
  
• Success against Top 50 - 1 win (if MTSU stays about where it is)
  
• Success against Top 100 - probably 2 to 4 wins, depending on how things shake out
  
• Win streaks - Yes! (15 and counting)
  
• Avg. RPI of wins and losses - TBD
  

Using EA's terminology, the quiver doesn't have a multitude of arrows.

That said, I still like the chances of this team to win a game or two in the tournament ... if they get in.

[skip-zip]

Look at the forecast by final record..

We have to win out the regular season, but that would do it.

Am I missing something? It says that if we get that 5th loss (losing the MAC title game), it puts us in the high 30s. That's not even in the neighborhood.

I also keep thinking about the possibility of having NO wins in the Top-50. Realistically, even if our RPI could reach a number around 30, how many people on a selection committee would fight for a virtually unknown team like Akron under those circumstances? My guess? Zero.

But let me continue to say that we should continue to want to do more to get at-large consideration. A couple more Top-50 teams on the schedule and our SOS would have been higher, and our chances of scoring some attention-grabbing Top-50 wins would have increased. Without that, as you can see, it looks like we were darn near faced with the daunting task of having to obtain near-perfection to have really made a strong case for an At-Large. Asking a bunch of college kids to only lose a couple of games in a season is quite a request.

[zippy5]

We have a top fifty win. Could have another (or two, since we would have played NC State and Tennessee instead of UNC Asheville and PSU) if it wasn't for the dumb suspensions. I think the schedule this year was very good, I just wish we could get someone interesting at home for an OOC matchup.

[zippy5]

Am I missing something? It says that if we get that 5th loss (losing the MAC title game), it puts us in the high 30s. That's not even in the neighborhood.

I also keep thinking about the possibility of having NO wins in the Top-50. Realistically, even if our RPI could reach a number around 30, how many people on a selection committee would fight for a virtually unknown team like Akron under those circumstances? My guess? Zero.

But let me continue to say that we should continue to want to do more to get at-large consideration. A couple more Top-50 teams on the schedule and our SOS would have been higher, and our chances of scoring some attention-grabbing Top-50 wins would have increased. Without that, as you can see, it looks like we were darn near faced with the daunting task of having to obtain near-perfection to have really made a strong case for an At-Large. Asking a bunch of college kids to only lose a couple of games in a season is quite a request.

And yes you are missing something, that site doesn't take the conference tournament into account. So that record with one loss means losing a regular season game. If we win out, we'll have an RPI of 30 going into the conference tournament.

[Dave in Green]

Am I missing something? It says that if we get that 5th loss (losing the MAC title game), it puts us in the high 30s. That's not even in the neighborhood. .....

RPI is a purely mathematical equation. Computers are pretty good at running math simulations. RPI Forecast simply runs the math on approximately what a team's RPI would project to if it won all the rest of its regular season games. The final number would vary a little depending on what happens with other teams, as well. But the RPI Forecast computers currently say the Zips' RPI would be around 30 if they win all the rest of their regular season games. While RPI Forecast does not yet include tournament game projections, it's logical to assume that there would be an improvement over 30 if the Zips won a semi-final game at the Q and then a drop if they lost in the championship game. Under those circumstances, why would an estimate of high 30s not be in the neighborhood?

[skip-zip]

RPI is a purely mathematical equation. Computers are pretty good at running math simulations. RPI Forecast simply runs the math on approximately what a team's RPI would project to if it won all the rest of its regular season games. The final number would vary a little depending on what happens with other teams, as well. But the RPI Forecast computers currently say the Zips' RPI would be around 30 if they win all the rest of their regular season games. While RPI Forecast does not yet include tournament game projections, it's logical to assume that there would be an improvement over 30 if the Zips won a semi-final game at the Q and then a drop if they lost in the championship game. Under those circumstances, why would an estimate of high 30s not be in the neighborhood?

Because I am certain that the selection committee won't show any interest in Akron with an RPI in the high 30s.

[Dave in Green]

Because I am certain that the selection committee won't show any interest in Akron with an RPI in the high 30s.

It depends on the other teams in the at large pool. If a lot of the teams with higher rankings than the Zips win their conference tournaments and get automatic bids, the Zips would have a decent chance against other at large candidates with similar records. If a lot of higher ranked teams get upset in their conference tournaments and need to use an at-large bid, then the Zips would be more likely to get passed over. Team Rankings NCAA Basketball Bracketology Projections currently show the Zips with an 80.2% chance of making the NCAA tournament based on a 45.1% chance of an automatic bid and a 35.1% chance of an at large bid.