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Should Akron Seek Another Conference?


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2 hours ago, kreed5120 said:

 

The biggest argument to play FCS over FBS is to get out of the athletics arms race. We are already committed to paying for a stadium and a field house regardless if we stay at FBS, drop down to FCS, or just drop football entirely. The cost of 20 extra scholarships and higher coaches salary to play at FBS level instead of FCS level is more than offset by guarantee games and TV money. You also have to take into account the additional cost of travel to play in MVC over MAC.

 

I don't feel Wichita State will be staying in the MVC much longer. Without them in the conference, I'd concede the MVC is still a better basketball conference, but I don't feel it would be that much better to be worth our time to make what would just be slightly above a lateral move.

Digging a little more into the MVC there are four schools that are affiliated with the MAC for either swimming and diving or wrestling. These are U of Evansville, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, and Southern Illinois. In looking at their mens BB schedules only one (Southern Illinois played Cant) scheduled a MAC school last year. Three of the four schools have good mens BB programs and could be resume builders  for a winning MAC team. Would it be too much to ask (or demand) that if the MAC lets you in for non-revenue sports we want 1-2 mens BB games a year?

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4 minutes ago, Steve1982 said:

Digging a little more into the MVC there are four schools that are affiliated with the MAC for either swimming and diving or wrestling. These are U of Evansville, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, and Southern Illinois. In looking at their mens BB schedules only one (Southern Illinois played Cant) scheduled a MAC school last year. Three of the four schools have good mens BB programs and could be resume builders  for a winning MAC team. Would it be too much to ask (or demand) that if the MAC lets you in for non-revenue sports we want 1-2 mens BB games a year?

 

I'm fairly certain that was part of the agreement when UMass joined for football only. Obviously basketball takes precedence over swimming or wrestling so if it's a sport that we need the MVC to meet the minimum team requirements, it could backfire if such a demand makes them look to join a conference elsewhere,

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Should we strive for a P5 conference? Absolutely. Is it realistic? No. UConn has won the National Championships in Men's basketball the same amount of times as we have made the NCAA tournament and they can't find a home in a P5 conference.

 

I'd love to move to the AAC if they lose a couple teams or look to expand. But we still need to raise our profile for that to be a possible option. Football needs to continue to improve and for men's basketball, that means consistent NCAA appearances and victories. That's why I want us to go out and schedule with an at-large bid in mind. It's not to be negative, it's just that I want to see the program take the next step. The "win three at the Q" attitude just doesn't fit for a program ultimately seeking a P5 conference.

 

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Some folks earlier were alluding to the Cleveland-Akron market-- we share that market with a school 11 miles down the road.   The only realistic chance of us going to a p5 would be combining with Kent.   A combined UA-Kent, with a very large local alumni base and 50K students, would have a shot at moving up, if it was winning against top tier opponents and attracting real crowds.  

 

 

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18 hours ago, zippy5 said:

Plus I'm not sure that scenario is really plausible. The ACC isn't going anywhere

We'll see. I'm sticking to the general basis that there is going to be a seismic shift in realignment in the next 10 years and either one of the ACC or Big 12 will cease to exist. I personally think the ACC is the one to go because it has more of the products the Big 10 and SEC will want to get a piece of. All signs are pointing to it being a P4 major landscape once the Big 10s new/short TV deal is back up for negotiating (see the link ZippyRulz posted).

 

The Big 10 and SEC will definitely lead that raid as they both have successful conference networks that they will want to grow into new markets. Also, going to a P4 setup benefits both (as well as the stable Pac 12 ... which was left out of the playoffs this year) as it guarantees they will have a school in the field.

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19 hours ago, kreed5120 said:

 

If the ACC literally lost every team besides Boston College in your crazy scenario, the conference would be better off just folding like the WAC instead of trying to find 9 or more teams that it would need to add. At that point Akron would be better off staying in the MAC.

 

Again, I 100 percent disagree. Even under a P4 setup, which you may think is crazy but lets see how things play out, there is still a demand for more college football (outside the P4, just like there is still a demand currently outside of the P5) and there are open time slots networks will want to fill. It was actually Wake Forest that I think will be left out (fourth-wheel in the state of North Carolina), but that's not important.

 

Maybe the ACC "name" would fold and the league would continue under the AAC flag? But I believe, technically, the ACC name rights would belong to Wake Forest. But lets not get wrapped up in the name, but what products could be in the league.

 

I think the TV networks (who do have a lot of pull behind the scenes in who goes where) would push for a new G5 league that plucks 20 (or maybe even 25) of the best of the leftovers, as well as schools that are located in bigger markets. You don't think that will be more beneficial than staying in the MAC? Especially as that new league would also go to a pod setup (meaning travel issues would be a lessened a bit).

 

To put it in perspective, here is a quick idea of what the new ACC/AAC/or some new top-tier G5 named league all together could look like (I'm using 20 here and going by TV markets, along with some general geography)

North: NIU (3), Temple (4), Akron (18), Old Dominion (42), Wake Forest (46)

Southeast: Georgia State (9), South Florida (11), Florida Atlantic (16), Central Florida (19), Charlotte (22)

Southwest: UT-San Antonio (32), UAB (45), Memphis (50), Tulane (51), Arkansas Little Rock (57)

West: San Diego State (28), UNLV (40), Fresno State (54), Tulsa (60), Boise State (107)

 

Granted, this is just a quick trying to match teams as best I could geographically (the SE is tough because that's where the underserved markets are), and I was also trying to get the biggest markets in it (with the exception of Boise, which would be an outlier since it is easily the most high-profile non-major). You can flip schools around (and take Akron out all together and replace the Zips with Ohio/Toledo/Buffalo/Marshall if you want), but don't you think something like this could land a pretty significant TV deal (especially since it would neuter the schools that are left out of this group)? Meaning the networks could simply lowball the 40-something left-out schools from the MAC/CUSA/Sun Belt, etc., to have their products simply on an ESPN3 (or other internet packages almost exclusively).

 

It may not be a sexy list of schools, but one that could encompasses a wide region with a lot of potential viewers (which is what the networks want). It would take some time for some of the schools (like an Akron) to build up their programs (but jumping up a rank among the other Ohio MAC schools would speed that process up).  

 

BTW, why Akron and not Kent as the No. 18 Cleveland market representative? Simple, it's because of that $65 million stadium that some still like to complain about. Maybe something like this forms and Akron is left out and the Zips are forced to drop down to FCS status, and InfoCision is a complete waste of money. But maybe it is part of the reason (along with being in a big market with a ton of recruiting ground) that boosts this program up a notch... maybe not to "P4" status, but into the clear next notch below.

 

And even if this league is left completely out of the playoffs (which it would be), there are still the marquee bowl games (with big payouts) that the league could work agreements with. It could be a concession. ... You guys stay out of the playoff, but in return, we'll guarantee you X amount of high-payout bowl games against P4 schools as long as your 12-0 playoff caliber champion decides not to try to tip our apple cart. Whatever, it's not like anybody in this group would ever make the playoffs anyway. But they could leverage it in a way that guarantees they won't make noise about getting in as long as the league has a certain number of big bowl game slots.

 

And for basketball, that's at least a 2 bid league every year, more likely a 3-4 bid league.

 

 

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10 hours ago, LosAngelesZipFan said:

Some folks earlier were alluding to the Cleveland-Akron market-- we share that market with a school 11 miles down the road.   The only realistic chance of us going to a p5 would be combining with Kent.   A combined UA-Kent, with a very large local alumni base and 50K students, would have a shot at moving up, if it was winning against top tier opponents and attracting real crowds.  

 

Attracting larger crowds?  - Yes, absolutely necessary.

Making the University larger with a merger? - I don't believe that the enrollment size of the University would have any impact at all on us being more attractive to another league.

 

Media Market:  I think you might have misunderstood that some of us were stating that Akron WOULD BE the only major conference team in this media market if we moved up.  But if we are talking about how it stands today, it's not just Akron and Ken+ either.  In basketball, you also have to add YSU and CSU in D-1.  But, I still believe that the attraction of a major media market would be, by far, the biggest factor weighing in our favor. 

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4 hours ago, wadszip said:

Again, I 100 percent disagree. Even under a P4 setup, which you may think is crazy but lets see how things play out, there is still a demand for more college football (outside the P4, just like there is still a demand currently outside of the P5) and there are open time slots networks will want to fill. It was actually Wake Forest that I think will be left out (fourth-wheel in the state of North Carolina), but that's not important.

 

Maybe the ACC "name" would fold and the league would continue under the AAC flag? But I believe, technically, the ACC name rights would belong to Wake Forest. But lets not get wrapped up in the name, but what products could be in the league.

 

I think the TV networks (who do have a lot of pull behind the scenes in who goes where) would push for a new G5 league that plucks 20 (or maybe even 25) of the best of the leftovers, as well as schools that are located in bigger markets. You don't think that will be more beneficial than staying in the MAC? Especially as that new league would also go to a pod setup (meaning travel issues would be a lessened a bit).

 

To put it in perspective, here is a quick idea of what the new ACC/AAC/or some new top-tier G5 named league all together could look like (I'm using 20 here and going by TV markets, along with some general geography)

North: NIU (3), Temple (4), Akron (18), Old Dominion (42), Wake Forest (46)

Southeast: Georgia State (9), South Florida (11), Florida Atlantic (16), Central Florida (19), Charlotte (22)

Southwest: UT-San Antonio (32), UAB (45), Memphis (50), Tulane (51), Arkansas Little Rock (57)

West: San Diego State (28), UNLV (40), Fresno State (54), Tulsa (60), Boise State (107)

 

Granted, this is just a quick trying to match teams as best I could geographically (the SE is tough because that's where the underserved markets are), and I was also trying to get the biggest markets in it (with the exception of Boise, which would be an outlier since it is easily the most high-profile non-major). You can flip schools around (and take Akron out all together and replace the Zips with Ohio/Toledo/Buffalo/Marshall if you want), but don't you think something like this could land a pretty significant TV deal (especially since it would neuter the schools that are left out of this group)? Meaning the networks could simply lowball the 40-something left-out schools from the MAC/CUSA/Sun Belt, etc., to have their products simply on an ESPN3 (or other internet packages almost exclusively).

 

It may not be a sexy list of schools, but one that could encompasses a wide region with a lot of potential viewers (which is what the networks want). It would take some time for some of the schools (like an Akron) to build up their programs (but jumping up a rank among the other Ohio MAC schools would speed that process up).  

 

BTW, why Akron and not Kent as the No. 18 Cleveland market representative? Simple, it's because of that $65 million stadium that some still like to complain about. Maybe something like this forms and Akron is left out and the Zips are forced to drop down to FCS status, and InfoCision is a complete waste of money. But maybe it is part of the reason (along with being in a big market with a ton of recruiting ground) that boosts this program up a notch... maybe not to "P4" status, but into the clear next notch below.

 

And even if this league is left completely out of the playoffs (which it would be), there are still the marquee bowl games (with big payouts) that the league could work agreements with. It could be a concession. ... You guys stay out of the playoff, but in return, we'll guarantee you X amount of high-payout bowl games against P4 schools as long as your 12-0 playoff caliber champion decides not to try to tip our apple cart. Whatever, it's not like anybody in this group would ever make the playoffs anyway. But they could leverage it in a way that guarantees they won't make noise about getting in as long as the league has a certain number of big bowl game slots.

 

And for basketball, that's at least a 2 bid league every year, more likely a 3-4 bid league.

 

 

 

I never said there wouldn't be demand outside your hypothetical power 4. All I said was there would be 9 conferences instead of the current 10. The ACC would collapse and every other conference would move up 1 spot up on the totem poll.

 

There are 128 FBS teams so if you are saying all conferences are going to have 20-25 teams, that means there will only be 5-6 conferences total. Even if 20+ team conferences transpire, I feel I'll be long dead.

 

Your entire concept is based off hypothetical TV dollars, but what you fail to realize is people are dropping cable. ESPN is currently gutting its staff because its subscription revenue is way down. The more people you add the bigger the pie gets, but also the more slices that need to get cut from it. Schools like OSU, UM, Bama, Texas, Florida, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Penn State, LSU, and Georgia would be better off breaking off from their current conference and forming a mega conference. All these teams pull the weight of their respective conferences and forming a conference that includes all the powerhouse names ensures you don't have teams like Wake Forrest, Vanderbilt, Purdue, etc. who offer the conference little, but get the same benefits as the teams that earn the conference the money.

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3 hours ago, kreed5120 said:

Your entire concept is based off hypothetical TV dollars, but what you fail to realize is people are dropping cable. ESPN is currently gutting its staff because its subscription revenue is way down. 

 

Let me expand on that. Too many people fall into the Market Trap. If Market was the only thing that mattered, then Stony Brook, Coloumbia and Army(Close Enough) would be a P5 school by now.

 

ESPN is the perfect example because there will be a Major Market Adjustment coming because the The Money being thrown around is unsustainable.

 

Keep in mind that the Providers look at the same Data that the Advertisers do for ratings and of it is way down, they will NOT overpay in this Media Climate for College Sports...

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10 hours ago, wadszip said:

We'll see. I'm sticking to the general basis that there is going to be a seismic shift in realignment in the next 10 years and either one of the ACC or Big 12 will cease to exist. I personally think the ACC is the one to go because it has more of the products the Big 10 and SEC will want to get a piece of. All signs are pointing to it being a P4 major landscape once the Big 10s new/short TV deal is back up for negotiating (see the link ZippyRulz posted).

 

The Big 10 and SEC will definitely lead that raid as they both have successful conference networks that they will want to grow into new markets. Also, going to a P4 setup benefits both (as well as the stable Pac 12 ... which was left out of the playoffs this year) as it guarantees they will have a school in the field.

 

IMO, I don't see the marginal revenue being enough to justify increasing to 20-team leagues.

 

With that said, if the events in your post did play out, I think it would be the B12 that would cease to exist, not the ACC. You'd still have 8 ACC schools remaining, UConn/Cincy from the AAC would quickly bring them to 10. West Virginia could easily be plucked from the B12 sinking ship. The ACC would be in the power position.

 

 

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On April 30, 2016 at 8:13 PM, zippyman23 said:

Should we strive for a P5 conference? Absolutely. Is it realistic? No. UConn has won the National Championships in Men's basketball the same amount of times as we have made the NCAA tournament and they can't find a home in a P5 conference.

 

I'd love to move to the AAC if they lose a couple teams or look to expand. But we still need to raise our profile for that to be a possible option. Football needs to continue to improve and for men's basketball, that means consistent NCAA appearances and victories. That's why I want us to go out and schedule with an at-large bid in mind. It's not to be negative, it's just that I want to see the program take the next step. The "win three at the Q" attitude just doesn't fit for a program ultimately seeking a P5 conference.

 

Exactly what I have been thinking. If Akron wants to move up in all the revenue sports then the AAC would be much more likely than the ACC.

If we are talking in basketball only terms then maybe the A-10 could be a future target. For football only, if the program continues to improve and then stabilize, I could see C-USA.  In reality though I would think the MAC is where we will be for the foreseeable future.

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On 4/29/2016 at 0:28 PM, ZippyRulz said:

 

He maybe wouldn't have built "that" stadium, but since it's there now I think he would be glad to get into the A(A/C)C.

 

 

He's not anti-athletics.

 

Zips Baseball disagrres. He sold out the team to build an "entrance" that nobody would use, then lied about it.

 

Don't think for a minute he or the current directors are going to increase the sports marketing budget, to get the attendance and ratings, that the school needs if it has a hope and prayer of getting a sniff by another conference. If you want to sell NEO as a "major market" you have to distinguish yourself from tOSU, and show that they are going to get ratings here. And when a big name school travels to Akron, the game won't be televised from a half-empty gymnasium. 

 

We can't blame local sports fans for not supporting a team they barely knows exists, and has no reason to go to a game. You have to break the perception that you're a junior league school, and losing to Buffalo (a minor league baseball and basketball city) isn't the route. Hell CSU and KSU made tournament runs and was in the news every night, but in the end it didn't move the needle one bit. 

 

Marketing and real success could get ratings and attendance to a point where other conferences would take a sniff. And this administration is NOT going to fork over that kind of cash. I feel lucky they haven't dropped us into a lower division. Yet.

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11 hours ago, Spin said:

Zips Baseball disagrres. He sold out the team to build an "entrance" that nobody would use, then lied about it.

 

Don't think for a minute he or the current directors are going to increase the sports marketing budget, to get the attendance and ratings, that the school needs if it has a hope and prayer of getting a sniff by another conference. If you want to sell NEO as a "major market" you have to distinguish yourself from tOSU, and show that they are going to get ratings here. And when a big name school travels to Akron, the game won't be televised from a half-empty gymnasium. 

 

We can't blame local sports fans for not supporting a team they barely knows exists, and has no reason to go to a game. You have to break the perception that you're a junior league school, and losing to Buffalo (a minor league baseball and basketball city) isn't the route. Hell CSU and KSU made tournament runs and was in the news every night, but in the end it didn't move the needle one bit. 

 

Marketing and real success could get ratings and attendance to a point where other conferences would take a sniff. And this administration is NOT going to fork over that kind of cash. I feel lucky they haven't dropped us into a lower division. Yet.

well ESPN trashed the zips on tv yesterday.  vabrick????  pitcher for LSU now...told his backstory about being forced to leave Akron due to killing the baseball program.  they were critical of akrons administration.  they shared that the year the baseball team went south...it had a budget of $700K/year for the program!!!  nice to get some national exposure!!!!!!  oh wait.................

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Sure, I'd love the Zips to be in a P5 conference, but it's a two way street.  If I was single, I'd like to date Kate Upton, but she probably would not return my call.  Those conferences have to want you, and that's not happening without a sustained period of success against teams of that level.

 

I would opt for smaller advances, to a conference like the AAC.

 

As for critical posters, this is an online discussion forum,  People taking a contrary position or asking questions is part of a discussion, not a cause for excessive whining.

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On 5/1/2016 at 10:58 PM, Spin said:

We can't blame local sports fans for not supporting a team they barely knows exists, and has no reason to go to a game. 

 

Marketing and real success could get ratings and attendance to a point where other conferences would take a sniff. 

Has the school EVER invited WKNR or 92.3 The Fan to broadcast at Infocision? 

 

Seems like a no-brainer idea.

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One of the Radio stations used to broadcast live from out in the tailgate lot at the Rubber Bowl.  I don't remember which one. 

 

Actually, that's one thing that would be more difficult today, since everyone is scattered all over.  But, why couldn't they come to the Zips Fest area?

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Wow, this discussion has gotten interesting. 

 

I suppose that MUSIC LISTENING on the radio has dwindled tremendously during the electronic age.  But, I'd guess that there might still be a good market for Talk and Sports, but surely the use of the actual physical RADIO has to be declining rapidly. 

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3 minutes ago, skip-zip said:

Wow, this discussion has gotten interesting. 

 

I suppose that MUSIC LISTENING on the radio has dwindled tremendously during the electronic age.  But, I'd guess that there might still be a good market for Talk and Sports, but surely the use of the actual physical RADIO has to be declining rapidly. 

The options available for listening to music have made terrestrial radio unbearable for me.  Although it costs me money to hear my music now, how can you put a price tag on never having to listen to Bob Serpentini ever again?

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This is all reminding me that I am so old that I can remember having the following in my car, in this order:

Radio Only

Radio and 8-Track

Radio and Cassette

Radio and CD

and currently Radio, CD, and can play iPhone tunes. 

 

In spite of all of the changes, the Radio has always been the constant.  And now I wonder if it's possible that it can actually disappear?

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I don't think we will ever see radio completely die. I still listen to talk radio on my commute back and forth to work. I also will listen to games on the radio when I'm driving. No denying that with music playing devices and sirius the customer basis is shrinking. I expect radio to become more syndicated with fewer local stations.

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On April 30, 2016 at 9:07 AM, kreed5120 said:

 

I never said there wouldn't be demand outside your hypothetical power 4. All I said was there would be 9 conferences instead of the current 10. The ACC would collapse and every other conference would move up 1 spot up on the totem poll.

 

There are 128 FBS teams so if you are saying all conferences are going to have 20-25 teams, that means there will only be 5-6 conferences total. Even if 20+ team conferences transpire, I feel I'll be long dead.

 

Your entire concept is based off hypothetical TV dollars, but what you fail to realize is people are dropping cable. ESPN is currently gutting its staff because its subscription revenue is way down. The more people you add the bigger the pie gets, but also the more slices that need to get cut from it. Schools like OSU, UM, Bama, Texas, Florida, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Penn State, LSU, and Georgia would be better off breaking off from their current conference and forming a mega conference. All these teams pull the weight of their respective conferences and forming a conference that includes all the powerhouse names ensures you don't have teams like Wake Forrest, Vanderbilt, Purdue, etc. who offer the conference little, but get the same benefits as the teams that earn the conference the money.

Personally, I don't think every P4 league will have between 20-25. A league like the Big Ten, yeah, I could see 20 since it has the most successful conference network and that has been driven off of market size (You really think the B10 would've taken Rutgers and Maryland if they didn't happen to be in two of the largest markets in the country?)

 

The other leagues would probably slot between 16-20 (So, I'm estimating my P4 scenario would be around 65-70 schools).

 

There are currently 128 FBS football schools. That would leave roughly 60 out of the P4.

 

But the point I was trying to make is that there is still demand for football outside of that P4. And wouldn't it behoove the networks to try to group together the "best" of those leftovers into one "league" for financial reasons? And the cord-cutting even makes it more likely why bigger-market schools would be targeted. While cable is losing subscribers, it's not vanishing completely until at least another 10 years (if at all). Even if it vanishes, it's not like the current cable networks are punting and saying "we're done", they instead are keeping up with the new-age trends to stay relevant in the internet age. While that would lessen the impact of being in a "large" market, something is alway going to be said for having a product in a bigger potential viewing area ... whether that is cable or internet.

 

For the short term, with the cord-cutting, it definitely makes more sense for the companies to consider market size. ... For example, a network can lose 25 percent of its subscriber base in Greenville, NC, and be left with (and I'm just roughly estimating numbers) with 225,000 potential viewers. Or it can lose 25 percent in Cleveland/Akron and still have 2.7 million viewers. Yeah, East Carolina (Greenville) destroys Akron in attendance, but does that really matter to the TV networks? In fact, ECU's attendance may actually hurt them more when it comes to TV since if they have 45,000 at their game (in a market of 300,000) that is 15 percent of its potential local market share already being at the game (meaning not watching on TV). Hypothetically, even if Akron could ever get 45,000 that would still represent less than two percent of the total population. Meaning, Akron actual attendance is moot for the networks. Yeah, we would love to sell out every game to brag about attendance, but I'm not sure attendance really means much. It's more about potential viewers (granted, the networks would be banking on a team that is winning, which Akron seems trending up in that category, but still has much to prove).

 

Plus, even moving beyond local markets. How many of the people who are moving to some of the growing markets have ties to areas like Northeast Ohio (or Ohio in general)? It's pretty significant since you're talking about a region that was once one of the top 10 in the country (and the people leaving aren't automatically changing allegiances to whatever school/team happens to be located in whatever Sun Belt region they are moving to ... maybe they aren't Akron fans per say, but people who have NEO pride).

 

For example, me and my wife visited my grandfather in Naples in February. We went to some seafood joint down the street where he lives. We were talking about Cleveland (where we are from). The people next to us overheard our conversation and they were like "we're also from Cleveland". That led to a conversation with them. There, I mentioned we lived in Wadsworth. The bartender overheard that and came over and said, "I overheard you talking, I'm from Akron, and my best friend lives in Wadsworth". He joined the conversation and we talked about "back home" for a bit. It's funny, too, when when we went to Fort Myers Airport, I was wearing a Browns sweatshirt. A guy at security was like "what are we going to do in the draft?" I didn't know what the hell he was talking about at first, then put it together he was a Browns fan.

 

I won't claim to be the most well-traveled person, but it seems wherever I go I meet somebody from Cleveland/Akron/Canton. Was in Vegas last year (wearing an Akron shirt walking through the Venetian). Some guy came put to me and was like "are you from Akron?" I was like yeah, I went to school there. Ended up he was from Bedford and had moved out to Vegas a couple years earlier. We again talked for about 10-15 minutes (since my best friend has a lot of family in SE Cleveland (Bedford), some who he went to school with). 

 

Miami Beach two years ago, the same thing, ran into somebody from Cleveland at The Clevelander.

 

I'm sure we all have those stories. Which actually makes a "moved up" Akron program even more marketable nationally since there is no in-market P4/5 competition (if you don't count Ohio State). I'm guessing if Akron could ever make a move up beyond being a MAC school, not only people in NEO would notice more, but also the NEO natives who are now living in other parts of the country.

 

And I still believe that regardless of what umbrella that falls under, if Akron can get into a "best of the rest" league, it has more benefits than staying in the close-knit MAC, if things break like I think they will (regardless if it's ACC or B12 ... one is going to blow up).

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