Bowden Ball Year 5

[zippy5]

13 minutes ago, skip-zip said:

 

I'd gladly take one myself right now. 

 

Save this exact response for when you see the more "ambitious" posters who talk about getting to the top of the MAC, and staying there.  And catch some of our earlier discussion in this thread about whether that's even attainable in the current MAC climate.  

That's a different argument 

[skip-zip]

5 minutes ago, UA1987 said:

get into the top 25 from time to time.                            

 

1) That would be a significant difference maker, I agree.

 

2) Winning more games correlates to jumps in attendance?  (See Akron Zips Basketball) (See Response #1).  

 

3) OU's football success over the last decades was cited as an attainable level of success by Balsy, and I agreed.   It was not someone's lofty aspiration.    

[kreed5120]

2 minutes ago, UA1987 said:

 

Here's what I'm hearing from Louisville - (no your naïve... what are we in 6th grade or right out of high school?) Winning will not produce the attendance increase you think and Akron can never have big win seasons.                          

 

It's because you hear what you want to hear. What I said was winning 11-12+ games each and every year isn't obtainable, which is what it would take for bandwagon fans to care enough to turn off the OSU game and actually attend. The first 7-8 win season, which is still winning, they will disappear. So no winning doesn't solve everything because Joe Akron only cares when you win big time. Akron's basketball program has been winning for over a decade now and yet they still manage to average around 3500 fans in a 5500 seat arena. They only mount a sell out streak when they are having an historical run, which has been like once or twice. As great of a coach as Dambrot is not even he can get the Zips to perform well enough for Joe Akron to care on a year in and out basis.

[UA1987]

40 minutes ago, skip-zip said:

 

1) That would be a significant difference maker, I agree.

 

2) Winning more games correlates to jumps in attendance?  (See Akron Zips Basketball) (See Response #1).  

 

3) OU's football success over the last decades was cited as an attainable level of success by Balsy, and I agreed.   It was not someone's lofty aspiration.    

I think Akron basketball is a good example of how winning increases attendance (anyone care to take a look at the Coleman Crawford tenure or Hipsher's early years). You could point to Akron Soccer too. If Akron Soccer won only a few games every year do you think anyone would go but a few diehards and family?  Don't get me wrong as I really like what Dambrot has accomplished, but if he got Akron basketball into the top 25 the JAR would be at close to attendance capacity. Pardon to the Mods as we are getting even more off topic here.    

Edited November 1, 2016 by UA1987

[skip-zip]

27 minutes ago, UA1987 said:

I really like what Dambrot has accomplished, but if he got Akron basketball into the top 25 the JAR would be at close to attendance capacity. Pardon to the Mods as we are getting even more off topic here.    

 

You know I completely agree with you on this part.  I harp on here often that this is the real difference maker.  As a MAC program, we've stagnated, even with all of the wins.  A move into the national picture would change all of that.  

 

We're not getting too far off topic.  We're still talking about Football attendance, which is certainly relevant in a Bowden Ball discussion.  

[Dr Z]

On 10/31/2016 at 5:56 AM, K92 said:

I have been so disappointed following the Buffalo game that I want to start this topic to get a real discussion of the state of the program.  I realize that Akron has a history of being one of the very worst programs in D-1 history.  I also realize that when Terry took over, the team was the absolute worst in the country and took over for the biggest p.o.s. coach of all-time.  That being said, are you satisfied with where the program sits?  I am not, but I could be persuaded with some sound logic that could make me feel better.  I am of the belief that the team has beaten nobody so far.  I am also of the belief that there have been some absolutely awful losses in the last 4 and a half years.. . . can you point to the wins that I should feel good about?  There are 3 wins versus a team with a Sagarin rating above 100.  Toledo (2013), Pitt (2014) and Utah State (2015).  Of that group, only Toledo had a winning record.

The original question.

[K92]

27 minutes ago, Dr Z said:

The original question.

That was the original question.

 

I looked down through the list again and decided to make an arbitrary criterion for what constitutes a good win or a bad loss.  I decided to use the Sagarin rating.  A win versus a team with a Sagarin higher than yours constitutes a good win and a loss to a team with a Sagarin lower than yours makes a bad loss.

 

With this criterion, I came up with the following. . .

 

4 Good Wins

JMU and Toledo in 2013, Pitt in 2014 and Utah State last year.

 

5 Bad Losses

UMass in 2012, Ohio, Buffalo & Kent in 2014 and Buffalo this year.

 

Using an arbitrary yardstick evens things out a little bit for me.  I wouldn't have considered JMU a good win and I included (in my mind) several more games where the Sagarins were very close as bad losses.  That's called bias from your point of view and we are all different.

Edited November 1, 2016 by K92

[Captain Kangaroo]

57 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

Akron's basketball program has been winning for over a decade now and yet they still manage to average around 3500 fans in a 5500 seat arena. They only mount a sell out streak when they are having an historical run, which has been like once or twice. As great of a coach as Dambrot is not even he can get the Zips to perform well enough for Joe Akron to care on a year in and out basis.

InfoCision seats 30,000. 

 

The JAR seats 5,500. The basketball program averages 3,500/game. 

 

If you equate Joe Akron's attendance as identical for football and basketball, then InfoCision would be filled to an average of 19,000/game under identical circumstances. 

 

You say an average 3,500 fans in a 5,500 seat arena shows Joe Akron doesn't care about winning. Why do you feel a football team with 19,000 fans per game would show that Joe Akron doesn't care?

 

Moral of the story - if the Zips basketball program plays the schedule it plays, and wins 20+ games per year, and really does nothing "magical" (we haven't done anything truly magical btw), you will fill the JAR to an average of 3.5k. This is indisputable. If the football team competes for a MAC Championship and wins 8+ games per year, it will eventually fill InfoCision to the same capacity.  Sell out big games...draw 12k for cup cakes. That's a safe bet. I hope I live to see the day that it is indisputable.

[kreed5120]

53 minutes ago, Captain Kangaroo said:

InfoCision seats 30,000. 

 

The JAR seats 5,500. The basketball program averages 3,500/game. 

 

If you equate Joe Akron's attendance as identical for football and basketball, then InfoCision would be filled to an average of 19,000/game under identical circumstances. 

 

You say an average 3,500 fans in a 5,500 seat arena shows Joe Akron doesn't care about winning. Why do you feel a football team with 19,000 fans per game would show that Joe Akron doesn't care?

 

Moral of the story - if the Zips basketball program plays the schedule it plays, and wins 20+ games per year, and really does nothing "magical" (we haven't done anything truly magical btw), you will fill the JAR to an average of 3.5k. This is indisputable. If the football team competes for a MAC Championship and wins 8+ games per year, it will eventually fill InfoCision to the same capacity.  Sell out big games...draw 12k for cup cakes. That's a safe bet. I hope I live to see the day that it is indisputable.

 

The fallacy I see in this argument is I'd say a very high % of people that go to Zips basketball games are students and alumni that already go to football games. If 1,500 people have season tickets to both basketball and football that equates to 5.5% of Infocisions capacity, meanwhile, that equates to 27.2% of the JARs. The same is true for the students.

Edited November 1, 2016 by kreed5120

[Captain Kangaroo]

22 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

 

The fallacy I see in this argument is I'd say a very high % of people that go to Zips basketball games are students and alumni that already go to football games. If 1,500 people have season tickets to both basketball and football that equates to 5.5% of Infocisions capacity, meanwhile, that equates to 27.2% of the JARs. The same is true for the students.

The fallacy I see in your argument is - if the was the same potential to draw Akron area football fans to InfoCision as there is drawing basketball fans the JAR, they would have built a 5,500 seat football stadium. 

[kreed5120]

3 minutes ago, Captain Kangaroo said:

The fallacy I see in your argument is - if the was the same potential to draw Akron area football fans to InfoCision as there is drawing basketball fans the JAR, they would have built a 5,500 seat football stadium. 

 

The basketball team plays in an arena that is an adequate enough size that they can fill or come close to filling it a few games per year. There is no denying the fact that Infocision is so large that it will rarely to never be at capacity. WMU is having one of the greatest seasons in MAC history and only 1 of their 4 home games would be a sell out at Infocision (27,000) and even then it would have been less than the SRO capacity of 30,000.

 

TBH building it as large as they did was counter productive. It thins the crowd out so much that even when they do pull a decent crowd it still looks really empty.

[zippy5]

The JAR sucks and the home sked is terrible each and every year. We're getting off topic so I'll keep it short, but it's a miracle we sell as many tickets as we do for the MBB team. 

[Balsy]

4 hours ago, K92 said:

That was the original question.

 

I looked down through the list again and decided to make an arbitrary criterion for what constitutes a good win or a bad loss.  I decided to use the Sagarin rating.  A win versus a team with a Sagarin higher than yours constitutes a good win and a loss to a team with a Sagarin lower than yours makes a bad loss.

 

With this criterion, I came up with the following. . .

 

4 Good Wins

JMU and Toledo in 2013, Pitt in 2014 and Utah State last year.

 

5 Bad Losses

UMass in 2012, Ohio, Buffalo & Kent in 2014 and Buffalo this year.

 

Using an arbitrary yardstick evens things out a little bit for me.  I wouldn't have considered JMU a good win and I included (in my mind) several more games where the Sagarins were very close as bad losses.  That's called bias from your point of view and we are all different.

 

I don't agree with that arbitrary criterion.  I don't really buy the Sagarin rating system either as an effective way of measuring success, as he doesn't fully report his methodology (as almost all ranking systems don't do), and it's more used by gamblers than those looking to analyze a season.  I think to determine a win "good" and a loss "bad" you would need to take into consideration (1) where the team was last year compared to this year, (2) how the win or loss played out (competitive, blowout etc) and (3) it's meaning to the program, and season, in general.  This third criterion would be more difficult to achieve for programs that are "good".  Ohio State wouldn't consider a win over Purdue "good" because the Win has little impact on the rest of the season.  A loss to Purdue WOULD be considered a "bad" loss because it would have a direct impact on the rest of the season.  

 

Call me biased, but I think this is a better measuring stick for success:

 

In that respect the "Good" and "Bad" losses would look something like this:

 

2012:  No good Wins Or Bad losses.  The Zips didn't regress or progress.  Most games were competitive.  Both losses to teams as bad as they were, were within one score, which is an upgrade to the losses in previous years.

2013:  Good Wins:  Miami (first road game in years), Kent (regained wagonwheel, rivalry 2nd home win in years), Toledo.  Bad losses:  None.

2014:  Good Wins:  Pitt (first group of 5 team)  UMass (First winning record at Infocision Stadium History) Bad Losses:  Ohio (lost first place MAC East), Buffalo (Took Zips out of realistic contention for Bowl game), Kent (Rivalry Loss, out of official contention for Bowl Game)

2015:  Good Wins:  Lousiana-Lafayette (First 2-2 record in OCC in years), Kent (Rivalry Game, Team Victory, Official Bowl Elligibility), Utah State (first bowl win ever) Bad Losses:  BGSU (officially out of MAC East contention)

2016:  Marshall (record scoring on the road), Kent (rivalry), Bad Losses:  Buffalo (as it stands currently).

 

By my arbitrary measuring stick it's Good Wins: 10   Bad Losses:  4

 

Yes I'm a homer, and Yes I'm biased.  But I think there's more to looking at W/L than just an arbitrary rating system.  Almost all of us agree that 2012 is a pass for Bowden, and 13, 15 were successful years, with 14 being a let down.  16 (so far) is a successful season, the last 3 games will determine if it truly is "good" or "bad".  And as the Bowden years go on, it'll be harder to get "good" wins...as it should.

[Balsy]

I'd like to remind everyone, that this conversation thread is about BOWDEN's success (or lack there of) at Akron.  Not attendance.  Leave all attendance speak to the attendance thread?  Unless it's being used to directly talk about the success or lack of success of Bowden and Co.

[skip-zip]

6 hours ago, Captain Kangaroo said:

If the football team competes for a MAC Championship and wins 8+ games per year, it will eventually fill InfoCision to the same capacity.  Sell out big games...draw 12k for cup cakes. That's a safe bet. 

 

I had to read this a couple of times because I thought it might have been a joke.  

 

An Akron team, in the MAC, that's "competitive" with an 8-win season draws a 30k crowd to The Info after hell freezes over.  

 

Our 2015 and 2016 teams are right in that ballpark.  Two years, similar win total, and in competition for a MAC title.  So, how do those attendance numbers look to you?  And one of the biggest games of the year on the agenda tomorrow.  So, what you you guess?  3k to 4k?  Maybe 5K if the Indians aren't playing?   So, where do you see something changing in the future where we might draw 10 TIMES THAT MANY FANS to a similar game, under similar circumstances?

 

 

[Captain Kangaroo]

4 hours ago, skip-zip said:

 

I had to read this a couple of times because I thought it might have been a joke.  

 

An Akron team, in the MAC, that's "competitive" with an 8-win season draws a 30k crowd to The Info after hell freezes over.  

 

Our 2015 and 2016 teams are right in that ballpark.  Two years, similar win total, and in competition for a MAC title.  So, how do those attendance numbers look to you?  And one of the biggest games of the year on the agenda tomorrow.  So, what you you guess?  3k to 4k?  Maybe 5K if the Indians aren't playing?   So, where do you see something changing in the future where we might draw 10 TIMES THAT MANY FANS to a similar game, under similar circumstances?

 

 

I enjoy that Balsey likes your attendance post.

[Balsy]

5 hours ago, Captain Kangaroo said:

I enjoy that Balsey likes your attendance post.

 

Why?  It was a good point...even though it's off topic and has derailed the conversation about BowdenBall.  

[Dr Z]

19 hours ago, K92 said:

I decided to use the Sagarin rating.  A win versus a team with a Sagarin higher than yours constitutes a good win and a loss to a team with a Sagarin lower than yours makes a bad loss. With this criterion, I came up with the following. 4 Good Wins: JMU and Toledo in 2013, Pitt in 2014 and Utah State last year. 5 Bad Losses: UMass in 2012, Ohio, Buffalo & Kent in 2014 and Buffalo this year. Using an arbitrary yardstick evens things out a little bit for me. I wouldn't have considered JMU a good win and I included (in my mind) several more games where the Sagarins were very close as bad losses.  That's called bias from your point of view and we are all different.

Interesting. I wonder how other coaches (Owens/JD...) compare? You could also use odds. I thought I remember Pitt being the biggest upset in Akron's history (odds-wise), no? Michigan should have been.

 

[kreed5120]

If Akron finishes 5-7 Bowden has to go. 1 bowl game in 5 years would be completely unacceptable.

[scottditzen]

4 hours ago, kreed5120 said:

If Akron finishes 5-7 Bowden has to go. 1 bowl game in 5 years would be completely unacceptable.

Firing Bowden would be the dumbest move ever by UA, and that's a high bar to clear becase they'be been really, really dumb.

[Balsy]

9 hours ago, kreed5120 said:

If Akron finishes 5-7 Bowden has to go. 1 bowl game in 5 years would be completely unacceptable.

 

If the Zips fired Bowden after this season, they'd lose this alumni's support.  I love how the sky is always falling on ZN.O. 

[a-zip]

On 11/1/2016 at 5:49 PM, Balsy said:

I'd like to remind everyone, that this conversation thread is about BOWDEN's success (or lack there of) at Akron.  Not attendance.  Leave all attendance speak to the attendance thread?  Unless it's being used to directly talk about the success or lack of success of Bowden and Co.

Attendance is tied to the success of Bowden and Co from the standpoint of recruiting.  A 4 star + recruit does not want to play in front of 3-4K people.  In the immortal words of Bobby Bowden "It ain't about the Xs and Os......it's about the Jimmy and Joe's"

[kreed5120]

For the record I'd expect them to beat BGSU to make this conversation mute, however, nothing is guaranteed as can be seen by that loss to Buffalo. Serious question here. If Akron would finish 5-7 that means they would have had losing records in 4 of Bowden's 5 seasons and 5 years in they are still a below average MAC team. Even last years "historic" season we tied for 6th best in the MAC, technically finishing 7th because we lost the head to head with OU. At what point would you feel a coaching change would be needed? Would it be if they missed bowl games both this season and next?

[blueandgold]

All I know is, I can't take this defense much longer. I realize we lost some great players to graduation and injury, but this is just awful and painful to watch.

[Balsy]

4 hours ago, a-zip said:

Attendance is tied to the success of Bowden and Co from the standpoint of recruiting.  A 4 star + recruit does not want to play in front of 3-4K people.  In the immortal words of Bobby Bowden "It ain't about the Xs and Os......it's about the Jimmy and Joe's"

 

Sans the Attendance argument we have every year in regards to basketball.  A 4 star + recruit is RARELY to NEVER going to consider a MAC team, especially when you're getting Big-10, Pac-12 or SEC offers.  If that's how you measured success, we'd be on coach 5 post iCoach.

 

Isn't it about both?  Ohio State and other programs show all the time you can have a million talented players, but not be the best if you don't have a good scheme, and are putting those players in a position to win.  Akron seems to have good coaches.  Who put the players in more winnable situations than losing ones.  The problem is they just don't have enough of those players with the experience/knowledge.  

 

I'm not ready to blow it up.