Dave in Green

Two weeks ago in Ypsilanti the Zips had a dream first half, hitting 8 of their first 11 3-point attempts while EMU missed all 5 of their treys and shot 7-33 from the field. While EMU roared back for 47 points in the second half, they had dug too much of a hole in the first half to overcome. Given the Zips' hot-and-cold shooting, it's unlikely they will shoot lights out in the first half again tonight. It's also unlikely that 4 of the 5 Zips starters will play 18 or more minutes in the first half. I'm expecting more of a grind-it-out defensive battle with lots of crashing bodies in the paint and more playing time for the subs. EMU didn't get a chance to see Kwan 2 weeks ago. Will he get a chance to make an impression tonight?

Interesting developments on the Red Claws roster. After being recalled by the Celtics following Saturday's Red Claws game, Vitor Faverani was reassigned back for yesterday's game and then recalled to the Celtics again today. So unless the Celtics change their mind again sometime in the next few hours, it appears that Faverani won't be keeping Zeke off the court in Canton tomorrow. Even more interesting is that Red Claws starting center Ty Walker's name is not listed in the box score from yesterday's game while Zeke's name was still in the box score even though he didn't play. Over the previous few games as Faverani was playing long minutes, Walker and Zeke had been listed in box scores as DNP - Coach's Decision. So it's possible that Walker may be off the Red Claws roster for some reason. If so, Zeke could become the starting center for the first time in Canton tomorrow.

The home improvement project peaked last week. I'm ready to lay some more numbers down here. I was just waiting to make sure there were enough people active in the forum to be annoyed and make it worth my while.

ZN.o goes modern. A few features take a little searching. But overall the site seems to have more features and runs smoother, so the changes are much appreciated. It does seem that there've been fewer new posts made since the change. I wonder if some forum members are holding back on posting due to a lack of familiarity with the new layout?

Good catch. Vitor Faverani (6-11, 260) is listed as a forward by the Red Claws. But over the last three games he's been getting all of the minutes previously going to Zeke and Walker at center. Such is life in the D-League. Faverani just got recalled by the Celtics, so that should mean that Zeke will be back in the lineup Thursday in Canton.

Something odd going on with the Red Claws. Three games ago, Zeke entered the game, was fouled and made 1-2 free throws. He was taken out of the game after playing just 17 seconds and didn't return. Also in that game, starting center Ty Walker played just 12 minutes. Two games ago, Zeke didn't play at all and Walker played only 5 minutes. In the last game, Zeke didn't play and neither did Walker as Maine went 48 minutes without a center on the floor. Since player news from the D-League is scarce to say the least, I can't find anything about whether or not Zeke may be injured or if the Red Claws just aren't playing their centers. The Red Claws return to Canton this Thursday (Feb. 6) for an 11 a.m. game against the Charge. I'd go again if I thought Zeke was going to play. Hoping we can get an update here from Zeke's family. EDIT: Just went back and watched video of the game where Zeke played only 17 seconds. A Red Claw player was fouled heavily and had to leave the game before shooting free throws. Zeke was brought in to sub and shot the injured player's free throws. After the next whistle was blown 17 seconds later, Zeke was taken out. He appeared to be in good health, but didn't play after that or in the following two games.

Well done.

@Dr Z, you must have bet on the Seahawks. For those of us who've tuned out, be sure to let us know the final score of the blowout.

Is anyone still watching the game?

At the risk of completely blowing my "stats guy" image, I haven't spent a lot of time looking at the stats for this game. I could see as the game unfolded that the Can't players were high on something and the Zips were laid back. Can't came into this game determined to slay the mighty Zips, and the mighty Zips appeared to play a normal MAC game against a team they were supposed to beat. The only positive way to look at this game is that it should be a wake up call. Any MAC team with a similar talent level to Can't could do the same to the Zips in any given game. The Zips are not good enough to dominate the MAC unless they bring their best to each game. Half-hearted efforts will yield half-assed results.

@GP1, I get it, I really do. I get the whole part about Coach Dambrot "mindlessly" tinkering with the team until he stumbled upon your expert advice. After nearly 10 years of reading your stuff, how could anyone be unaware of the self-aggrandizement shtick? To me it's all sales speak, and I'm pretty much immune to that. Anyway, there are a number of knowledgeable basketball fans on this forum who all see things a little differently, and many of us learn from each others' observations. Reading between the shtick lines, I've even learned a little from you at times. But not so much on this one.

@GP1, the point about what a terrible team Ball State is only emphasizes the fact that the new starting 5 struggled against them to open both halves. Surely you're not trying to deny that the Zips didn't start performing as expected against a horrible team in either half until they started subbing?

Explain.

I don't get the "missed free throws" line. The Zips were 12-16 (75%), not great but better than the NCAA average and one of their better free throw shooting performances of a below-average season. Free throw shooting was the least of their problems tonight. I watched the second half of the Can't collapse against NIU, and they were truly awful. I could not imagine this Can't team beating the Zips, and apparently the Zips couldn't imagine it either. We all need to get used to the fact that there's no dominant team in the MAC this season. It's not just going to come down to the Q for the Zips, but for everyone in the MAC. Whoever gets it all together in March is going dancing, and it isn't at all clear in early February who that's going to be.

Great defensive effort at the end, but too little too late.

Can't has all the confidence in the world and the Zips are on their heels.

Couldn't make it to the game. Not liking what I'm seeing. Can't is not a talented team. But they've brought a lot of energy and intensity to this game, and the game plan of driving to the bucket almost every time down the court is embarrassing the Zips' interior defense.

@GP1, nope, I didn't say that. From watching Zips games everyone knows they don't substitute 5 for 5. In the Ball State game, here's how things went in the first half with time of substitutions followed by starters/subs on the floor followed by the score (UA-BSU): 20:00 - 5/0 (0-0) 12:19 - 2/3 (8-12) 11:56 - 1/4 (8-12) 09:54 - 2/3 (14-12) 08:30 - 3/2 (19-12) 07:53 - 4/1 (19-12) 06:43 - 5/0 (21-14) 05:51 - 4/1 (24-14) 05:05 - 3/2 (27-14) 02:53 - 4/1 (35-18) 01:39 - 3/2 (35-19) 00:29 - 4-1 (35-19) 00:00 - 4-1 (35-19) The point is not that the subs did all the damage and the starters none, but that various mixes of subs and starters performed better than the starters by themselves. In other games the mix will be different as different starters and subs have hot or cold games. The Zips have a lot of good players starting and coming off the bench.

Skip, only 5 of the Zips' first half points were scored with Majok on the bench, and only 7 in the second half before he sat down near the end of the game when it was out of reach. Most of the minutes in the Zips' big sub-fueled runs were made with Majok on the floor. It's true that some players seem to respond better to starting and others to coming off the bench. That's more of an individual personality thing, and doesn't necessarily mean that the starters are always the "best" players. If we listen to what the coaches and players have been saying in their interviews lately, they're telling us that the most important factors in the Zips' recent resurgence have to do with team chemistry and everyone starting to get more comfortable with the roles they need to play going forward. While much of the focus on the Zips has been on the weakess at PG, this team has a lot of strength in the frontcourt and at the wings. It's pretty clear after having given everyone on the bench a fair chance to perform over the first half of the season that the Zips' best all-around players are those 6-6 and above, where the team is deep. That's where the focus is now being placed, and it's paying dividends. While taking only 1 shot from the field between them, Melo and Nyles combined to play 39 minutes against Ball State with more assists than turnovers. That freed up Q to play the wing. The Zips are adjusting to the reality that they can be effective as a team without any scoring from the PG position as long as they can get the ball to one of the other 4 players in scoring position. Tree, Q, Jake, Nick, Reggie, Kwan, Pat and Big Dog give the Zips 8 solid scorers from 6-6 to 6-11.

I get it, and no problem with the jab. It's all part of life on ZN.o. Some have referred to me as the "stats guy" because I address the numbers more than anyone else here. Really, if you look back to my early years on ZN.o, I didn't mention stats much at all. At some point I saw some forum members making claims that didn't seem right to me. So I visited various stats sites and found that the numbers didn't match certain claims being made. Then I started checking my own impressions against the numbers and found areas that I was misjudging. Since then I've said that while the numbers don't tell the whole story, they tell an important part of the story. But some people like to stereotype others, and I got pinned with the label that I only care about the numbers. Wrong. I just don't ignore the numbers. I think a good balance of impressions, analysis and stats makes for good discussion on a sports forum. If others want to downplay stats, I'll try to make up the difference to help create that good balance.

@johnnyzip84, I don't see the irony you point out because I don't see anyone posing as a statistician on ZN.o. All I see is some forum members paying more attention to numbers than others. In my case I've had no training in statistics and don't understand many advanced stats. I just see basic stats as simple math facts that can be used to fact-check my impressions.

Now this is a truly funny thread! The real humor is in the irony. It's ironic that the concept for this thread came from a guy with a long history of telling various Zips fans that they don't belong on this forum and should stop posting as if he owns the place. Then there's the irony of the folks who actually do own the place who lament why some forum members stop posting while apparently remaining oblivious to the fact that some are openly trying to discourage others from posting. But the biggest irony is the guy who ran with the concept and started this thread, a guy who never met a thread on ZN.o that he didn't want to turn into a discussion of spring football or death to the NCAA. And he objects to posting stats on a sports forum? Excuse me, sports without stats? I'm laughing so hard I'm about to pee my pants. I agree that this thread is way too funny to let die, so I'll come back and bump it periodically so we can all have another good laugh. When I post stats, they'll remain in the game threads where they belong on a sports forum.

Wow, I take a few days off to get a home project done, and no one does any math fact checking on a game thread. I see there was a little excitement about the new starting lineup being left in beyond the first media timeout as if that's what led to the Zips winning performance. Let's do a quick check of the math starting with the first half: 15:33 -- media timeout after Zips starters have been outscored by 2 points and are losing, 6-8. 12:19 -- first subs enter game after Zips starters have been outscored by 4 points in the game's first 8 minutes and are losing, 8-12. 04:29 -- 8 minutes after inserting subs, Zips have gone on a 22-2 run and are winning by 16, 30-14. The starters were -4 in the first 8 minutes of the first half and with subs were +20 in the next 8 minutes. Then there was the second half, where the starters began with a 16-point (35-19) lead: 14:54 -- media timeout and subs enter game after Zips starters have been outscored by 6 points and are winning by 10, 43-33. 10:57 -- 4 minutes after inserting subs, Zips have gone on an 11-0 run and are winning by 21, 54-33. The starters were -6 in the first 5 minutes of the second half, and with subs were +11 in the next 4 minutes. The real story is in the facts, and the facts are that the Zips starters were outperformed at the start of each half and only after subs came off the bench did they run up big leads.

@GP1, so you find some of my posts as annoying as I find some of yours? Touche.

@Quickzips, addressing your points one by one, of course we were all over Can't for their long string of multiple offenders. We're Zips fans and we get all over Can't whenever the sun rises, or sets, or anytime in between. Can't had a major ongoing problem with lots of questionable recruits. The Zips have focused on a higher level of recruit with good family backgrounds, and occasionally even the best make mistakes. In the real world outside of sports fans, you have to treat each case on its individual merits. Some people can't stay out of trouble and some people occasionally make mistakes. As I've said before, I don't know where Alex falls on that scale, but I trust Coach Dambrot to make the right call. As far as being in shape, Q had a full-time job requiring lots of travel and other obligations that kept him out of the gym. He says he lost 20 pounds of muscle. We don't know if something similar applies to Alex or if he's been able to work himself into better shape than he's ever been. If we don't know, it's pure speculation. The unbalanced scholarship situation is not ideal, but not having a proven PG is even less ideal. On balance, I'll take the unbalanced scholarship situation. As for @Ada Zip's question about whether I'd want my son to be a teammate of Alex, if it were me I'd want a face-to-face meeting with Coach Dambrot to have him explain to me why he was confident that Alex was a good person who could be trusted. As I recall, Alex told police that he absolutely never involved any of his teammates in any of his illegal actions.