He's 100% correct. One half of all players in the TP will end up with nothing.
I think kids aren't thinking through things clearly. At some point, playing careers end. The options discussed are to stay and try your best or take the risk of the portal. The one rarely discussed is not playing football and just staying and graduating, then getting a job. I'm sure for many guys, the burden of not playing would be a relief.
I actually think if a school runs a player off of a team because they want to open up a scholarship for someone who they think is better, the kid run off should still get a full scholarship to that school. If coaches are living up to their word in a family's living room during recruiting, the promise of a chance at graduating should be honored. Maybe acting honorably is too much to ask, but I don't think it is.