Zips Hoops Rankings

[mes102]

Dick Vitale finally caved in

"Let' s give AKRON some love - have won 17 in a row - @KingJames Will be dangerous 4 an elite team at NCAA time"

[Blue & Gold]

OU has the same exact record this point in the season as last year, along with a better conference record. Losing to OU in the MAC finals doesnt mean we arent good enough for a tourney bid. Asinine to think that. Any team can slip up. See Kansas losing to TCU who had lost all of their conference games by 10+ prior to that game.

If we slip up and dont make it, then it is what it is. We have a great chance at an at-large if we win out and would happen to lose to OU in Cleveland. Well known college basketball analysts are agreeing. I will take their opinion over yours.

I believe HS Stripes is giving a hypothetical voice to the NCAA selection committee; that they could/would say that, were we truly worthy of an NCAA Tourney bid, we should have won our conference tourney. In reading his post, I don't believe HS Stripes was saying that this is what he personally believes.

Personally, I can't imagine being left out if we continue to run the table (the odds are still against us doing this; it's just incredibly difficult to go undefeated in conference) and lose (to Ohio) in the MACC game.

[Dr Z]

....winning 24 30 straight.

FIFY

That should be a sign in The Pouch.

_30

IN A

ROW

[Captain Kangaroo]

Personally, I can't imagine being left out if we continue to run the table... and lose (to Ohio) in the MACC game.

Ask Romeo Travis if he could fathom it.

[Valpo Zip]

The committee has a good argument in that the Zips can't win away games. So far, our best away win is @Can't which is not a good away win. That's why winning @Athens is going to be huge.

[Blue & Gold]

Ask Romeo Travis if he could fathom it.

That memory is as painful for me as anyone, but we didn't run the table that year.

[odhgibo]

I believe HS Stripes is giving a hypothetical voice to the NCAA selection committee; that they could/would say that, were we truly worthy of an NCAA Tourney bid, we should have won our conference tourney. In reading his post, I don't believe HS Stripes was saying that this is what he personally believes.

You read correctly B&G.

I'm also not saying the team isn't worthy of a bid. It is.

I never can remember the exact number, but there are ~350 schools playing D-1 hoops, of which maybe 75-100 are worthy of consideration (setting aside the conference champs of the very lowly ranked conferences). Of those worthy of considertion, in any given year, half to two thirds are worthy of a bid.

This year appears to be one where 55-60 have a legitimate argument for getting a bid. Look at Massey's collection of rankings and see how many teams have one ranking in the 20s or 30s and another in the 50s or 60s. Heck, the Zips fall in that category, with rankings from 26-63. While we like to discount the ones with the Zips in the 56-63 range, other schools point to those rankings as indicative of their worthiness.

In years like this one, there will be a handful of worthy teams left on the outside looking in. Vitale will spend 5 minutes after the selection show, saying that the little guy got robbed again. That will occur either immediately before or after some spokesman for the committee talking about things like "body of work" and "quality wins."

The committee has reasons to give this team a bid, and it has reasons to withhold a bid. Lack of quality road wins is a big negative ... huge, in fact. League play gives Akron only one opportunity for a decent road win, and that's at a venue that has been a house of horrors for most of the past decade. Compare that to an ACC or Big Ten middle of the pack team, which gets half a dozen or more such opportunities in league play alone.

[Dave in Green]

The 2006-2007 Zips team is a great example because it so closely parallels Drexel's exclusion last season:

Season record after losing in conference tournament: Zips 26-7, Drexel 27-6.

RPI considered by NCAA selection committee: Both in the mid-60s.

SOS considered by NCAA selection committee: Both worse than 210.

Signature wins over top-ranked teams: Nothing special for either team.

HS Stripes is right on target. This happens every season to a number of teams that are close to the bubble but not quite there, and every rejected team fan base goes crazy trying to make a case for why their team should have gotten the at large bid that some other marginal team got instead. It reminds me of the Olympics when you see judges scoring individual performances, and someone gets a tenth of a point more than someone else on one exercise that makes a difference between winning a medal or not. That's just the way the world works.

I do think there is at least some small positive value in creating a buzz for your team. The selection committee members are constantly exposed to college basketball data throughout the season. They see the polls and they see who's getting votes, even the teams just outside the top 25. They see the stories about the teams with the longest winning streaks, and it has to register the team names at least subconsciously. They see stories about the 7-foot center whose stock is going up in the NBA mock drafts. They see widely publicized stories like the one about the coach who's willing to give up a BracketBusters home game for an away game to increase the difficulty of his team's schedule. The selection committee loves teams that try to challenge themselves with difficult schedules.

This season Akron basketball is popping up in more national media stories than I can ever recall happening during a regular season. It's a small intangible, and in the end it may make no difference. But if it comes down this season to the NCAA selection committee making the final call on bubble teams and Akron is in the mix, committee members are more likely to be familiar with Akron than they ever have been in the past, and the coin flip between bubble teams with similar bodies of work just might go Akron's way. But it's still a real long shot, so no one should get their hopes up.

[Dave in Green]

Great bubble watch article by Andy Glockner:

Akron, La. Tech among teams that should have bubble fans nervous

They sit quietly in the darkness of the bubble world's subconscious until the light begins to shine on them in the middle of February each year. As major-conference teams keep whacking each other and very few take definitive steps toward the at-large spots remaining, questions about the lurkers grow louder and louder until no one can ignore them anymore. They are the low-major win collectors, ready to feast on your leftover bracket spots. They are real ... and they are bubblers' worst nightmares. .....

..... Akron: The Zips are a perfect 12-0 in the MAC at the moment, but they only have played five top-100 games so far. They lost by four against Oklahoma State in a tournament and also lost at Creighton by 16. They have one really bad loss, in the season opener, at Coastal Carolina. This is an experienced, upperclass team with an elite 7-foot shotblocker in Zeke Marshall.

EDIT: By the way, this is now the lead story on SI.com's college basketball section with a photo of Zeke and Doug McDermott with the caption:

Could elite shotblocker Zeke Marshall help push 12-0 MAC squad Akron to a spot in this year's NCAA tournament?

[Dr Z]

By the way, this is now the lead story on SI.com's college basketball section with a photo of Zeke and Doug McDermott with the caption:

Could elite shotblocker Zeke Marshall help push 12-0 MAC squad Akron to a spot in this year's NCAA tournament?

[Captain Kangaroo]

Thanks, Dr. Z!

It is great to see SI giving the MAC so much love.

Here's another MAC star featured in the upcoming SI swimsuit issue:

[Dave in Green]

@Dr Z, you just inserted that graphic for the beer ad, right?

While I believe there may have been casual mentions on more obscure websites, I think that Glockner is the first to formally include the Zips on a mainstream website bubble watch. At the end of his bubble watch article, under Best of the Rest, Akron is listed for the first time along with Memphis, Belmont, Middle Tennessee State, Louisiana Tech, Southern Mississippi and Bucknell. Another first for the Zips.

[Big Zip]

Seth Davis has Akron as the Flavor of the Week.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-b...reak/index.html

Flavor of the Week: Akron

As you can see below, I have included Akron on my AP ballot for the third straight week. I don't know if my fellow voters are going to follow suit, but I promise it is no accident this team is undefeated in the Mid-American Conference with a 12-0 record (21-4 overall). The Zips' 17-game winning streak is the longest active streak in the nation and the second longest by any team this season. They are winning thanks to one of the best inside-outside tandems in the country. Senior center Zeke Marshall is the all-time career blocks leader in MAC history and currently ranks fifth in the nation at 3.48 blocks per game. Junior point guard Alex Abreu is on pace to break school records in assists for both a season and a career. He currently leads the MAC in assist-to-turnover ratio (2.16-to-1) and is second in both assists (6.0) and three-point percentage (39.8). Mostly, the Zips are on this streak because they have played lockdown defense, holding 17 of their 25 opponents to 65 points or fewer. In other words, Akron excels inside and out, as well as on both ends of the floor. Does that sound like a team you'd like to see in your first NCAA tournament game?

[Dave in Green]

Ryan Fagan of Sporting News ranks the Zips as a #11 seed along with Mississippi, California and Maryland. I believe this is the first bylined article on a major sports site that has the Zips seeded that high. No description given of the Zips. But the comment that goes along with the article is nice:

As always, Sporting News’ weekly Field of 68 is a projection of what the NCAA Tournament selection committee would do based on what’s happened so far this season.

[MDZip]

And a mention in Andy Katz's Three Point Shot column.

3. I would love to see four of the top five in the AP poll make it to Atlanta. Having Indiana, Miami, Gonzaga, Michigan State or Florida would provide plenty of terrific storylines, history -- mostly modern -- and drama. I’m also pleased to see the respect growing for teams outside the "power six" in the polls that will factor in March: Butler (15), New Mexico (16), Memphis (21), Colorado State (22), VCU (24) and teams nearly in the poll in Saint Louis, Louisiana Tech and a bit further away in Akron and Middle Tennessee State.

[bUAkronG]

Seth Davis has Akron as the Flavor of the Week.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-b...reak/index.html

Flavor of the Week: Akron

As you can see below, I have included Akron on my AP ballot for the third straight week. I don't know if my fellow voters are going to follow suit, but I promise it is no accident this team is undefeated in the Mid-American Conference with a 12-0 record (21-4 overall). The Zips' 17-game winning streak is the longest active streak in the nation and the second longest by any team this season. They are winning thanks to one of the best inside-outside tandems in the country. Senior center Zeke Marshall is the all-time career blocks leader in MAC history and currently ranks fifth in the nation at 3.48 blocks per game. Junior point guard Alex Abreu is on pace to break school records in assists for both a season and a career. He currently leads the MAC in assist-to-turnover ratio (2.16-to-1) and is second in both assists (6.0) and three-point percentage (39.8). Mostly, the Zips are on this streak because they have played lockdown defense, holding 17 of their 25 opponents to 65 points or fewer. In other words, Akron excels inside and out, as well as on both ends of the floor. Does that sound like a team you'd like to see in your first NCAA tournament game?

Reading further, he mentions the Zips after posting his ballot:

I could have gone with a lot of teams in the last two spots on my ballot. If it looks like I am just being partial in showing love to mid majors Akron and Louisiana Tech, it's because I am. As usual, I had plenty of good candidates, most notably Memphis, Oklahoma, Saint Louis, VCU and Oregon. I voted Akron last week, and as noted above, they are still winning. As long as the Zips remain undefeated in the MAC, they will have a place on my ballot.

[MDZip]

Even Joe Lunardi gives a little love during his chat wrap.

Hi Joe, love the work you do. In last year's tournament it seemed like there were a lot of mid-major 12 and 13 seeds that at least had a chance to pull off upsets in the tournament (12 VCU, 12 Long Beach, 13 Montana, even 14 Belmont). Any thoughts on who might have a shot this year? It seems like the pool is a little thinner.

Joe Lunardi (3:02 PM)

Hard to say without actual match ups, Jake, but I think we'll see more than a few "live" mid-majors in the field. Middle Tennessee, Belmont, Akron, Louisiana Tech, Bucknell, South Dakota State and Davidson are all good enough to win a game in the tournament.

And a second reference a little later on (did Nick Harney ask this one? )

Nick H (Akron Ohio)

If Akron wins out but loses to Ohio in the MAC Tourney will you think they can get a at large?

Joe Lunardi (3:25 PM)

They can, but I doubt they will. Best non-conference win is Middle Tennessee State (at home, in overtime). Probably not enough.

[Dave in Green]

..... If Akron wins out but loses to Ohio in the MAC Tourney will you think they can get a at large?

Joe Lunardi (3:25 PM)

They can, but I doubt they will. Best non-conference win is Middle Tennessee State (at home, in overtime). Probably not enough.

That does it for me. Lunardi is one of the most conservative and one of the most accurate of the bracketologists. What he says here is about where our discussion in this forum has arrived. The win out but lose the MAC tournament final will get the Zips ever so close to an at large bid -- closer even than the 2006-2007 Zips team. It's possible it might happen if all the stars were to align just right. But it's likely that the Zips would fall a style point or two short.

Win two at the Q.

[Dave in Green]

Zips still alive in Matt Norlander's latest update:

Conference unbeaten catch-up: Who remains perfect in their league?

[odhgibo]

That does it for me. Lunardi is one of the most conservative and one of the most accurate of the bracketologists. What he says here is about where our discussion in this forum has arrived. The win out but lose the MAC tournament final will get the Zips ever so close to an at large bid -- closer even than the 2006-2007 Zips team. It's possible it might happen if all the stars were to align just right. But it's likely that the Zips would fall a style point or two short.

Welcome to my side of the fence.

[skip-zip]

Best non-conference win is Middle Tennessee State (at home, in overtime). Probably not enough.

Unfortunately, this is exactly where I see us being eliminated from serious consideration for an at-large bid in that selection room. Bottom Line: Our best OOC win isn't very impressive.

[Dave in Green]

@HS Stripes, please feel free to go back and look at every post I've made on this subject. I've never once said there was a good chance that the Zips would get an at large bid. I've always contended that the Zips have a small chance, and they still do. Even Lunardi agrees that there's a small chance. I only object when it appears that someone might be equating a small chance with no chance. That may have been misinterpreted as me arguing that there was a good chance. Misinterpretations are common on internet forums. I may have misinterpreted your position as being overly negative. If so, I apologize. We're all probably pretty close in our positions, with the exception of the extreme optimists and the extreme pessimists.

[akronzips71]

IF we win Friday, OU beats Belmont, and we beat OU, I think we will come up #25.

Ranked teams usually get to the dance. We would just have to keep it going and win out the regular season to remain ranked.

[Dave in Green]

@skip-zip, a Zips win in Athens would be counted as a good win as long as the Kitties cooperate by upsetting Belmont on the road and latch on to some of Belmont's RPI goodness. It's the whole body of work that counts, and a Zips win over NDSU win at the JAR would also add a little weight to the Zips' resume. No single win and no single loss gets the job done with the selection committee. It's all about the "body of work." As I've said many times, the Zips need all the stars to align on this one. The odds are against it. But as long as we expect the Zips not to ever give up trying, we shouldn't give up on the Zips' possibilities, however remote.

[odhgibo]

@HS Stripes, please feel free to go back and look at every post I've made on this subject. I've never once said there was a good chance that the Zips would get an at large bid. I've always contended that the Zips have a small chance, and they still do. Even Lunardi agrees that there's a small chance. I only object when it appears that someone might be equating a small chance with no chance. That may have been misinterpreted as me arguing that there was a good chance. Misinterpretations are common on internet forums. I may have misinterpreted your position as being overly negative. If so, I apologize. We're all probably pretty close in our positions, with the exception of the extreme optimists and the extreme pessimists.

My last post ended with a wink because I know how close to the fence we both are. Falling on one side or the other might depend on which way the wind is blowing at the time.

If Akron takes care of business Friday and if they can overcome history and win at OU, I still think an at large bid is a possibility ... Maybe a play-in 14 seed like Iona last year. I just think that would take a lot of dominoes to line up just perfectly. That tends to happen about every 4-5 years, so odds are against us.

Win the tournament and get a 12 seed (where upsets are more common)!