EA3 Posted January 4, 2013 Report Share Posted January 4, 2013 Sagarin has W. Mich. behind Northwestern, West Virginia, Western KY, Western Illinois and.............................................................. ................................................................. ................................................................................ ....... ................................................ ...................................... ................................................. .......................................... ................................................. ............................... ........ .................................................. ....................................................................... NORTHWESTERN STATE!!!! Snap. I missed that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quickzips Posted January 6, 2013 Report Share Posted January 6, 2013 Things that will hurt WMU in this game: The Broncos generally play about a 9 man rotation with two of those players seeing less than 10 minutes per night. The Zips will come at them with an 11 man rotation, and they will press full court the majority of the night. Even if Western is able to keep it close early, the Zips will eventually wear out the Broncos with their depth. The Broncos lack the size up front to compete with the Zips rotation of bigs. Whittington (6'10") and Paul (6'8") are the only real bigs in their lineup. Hutcheson runs 6'7" but is a little more of a wing than he is a big (think Jake Kretzer). While Whittington and Paul might provide a nice matchup for Zeke and Tree, they have nobody who can come off the bench and match up with Forsythe and Harney. The Broncos lack a solid PG option. They run with 6'2" sophomore Austion Richie at the point. He averages 3.7 assists per game on the season while turning the ball over 2.3 times per night. Not exactly a good assist/turnover ratio. This doesn't bode well against a Zips team that will get up in his grill and try to force mistakes. As a team the Broncos don't shoot the ball very well. Overall they are 42% as a team on the season. Three of their top 7 guys shoot the ball under 40% including their leading scorer (Hutcheson at just under 37%). By comparison the Zips are currently 28th in the country shooting 47.5% from the field with three players in our rotation shooting 60% or above from the field including our two leading scorers (Zeke and Tree). Western isn't a particularly good 3 point shooting team. Only Brandon Pokley shoots above 40% from three. As a team they shoot 31.5% from three. While the Zips have shown some vulnerability to opposing guards getting hot from three, there really isn't anyone on the Broncos to be TOO concerned about. And the most important thing to remember is February 6, 2008. That is the last time the Broncos managed to beat the Zips. They did it in Kalamazoo (this one will be played at the JAR). Since then the Zips have won 7 in a row including two MAC tournament knock-outs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wadszip Posted January 7, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2013 I can't with a straight face predict a road win for my Broncos. Akron is at home, has our number, is deeper, and is much more experienced....not to mention more skilled. We really struggle scoring the ball during stretches due to our lack of a "go to" guy. Last year we dumped it into the post every possession, that's not going to happen this year. Our bigs are skilled, but they aren't the traditional back to the basket type scorers. Two matchups really worry me. Abreu and Treadwell are a nightmare for us. I wouldn't say we have an edge at any position at this point. Even the Harney vs Hutcheson matchup would be a push right now. That said, I expect us to be even or ahead in the rebounding battle...and we will likely turn the ball over 15-18 times. We have 4 frosh in our top 8 in the rotation. When it's all said and done, I'd predict a 12 point win by Akron. Oh, one last thing...our offense is completely different than what you are accustomed to seeing from Steve Hawkins at WMU. The new one is very much like what Buffalo runs. I won't be making the trip for this one. Good luck fellas. If we can't pull one out at your place, I'm hoping we can steal one from Ohio on Saturday. The MAC didn't do us any favors by starting our first two games against #1 and #2 Thanks for sharing your input on WMU. Obviously, I'm an Akron fan, but I agree there isn't an edge at any position for WMU in this game. Even if Harney vs. Hutcheson is a push (I'd give the nod anyway to Harney the way he has played recently), they probably won't be matched up on each other much unless KD changes up the rotation or Hutcheson slides down to the 4 (correct me if I'm wrong, but Hutcheson is mainly the 3 and Paul the 4, correct?). Harney and Tree have almost exclusively played all the minutes at the 4 (Tree @ 22 and Harney @18 per game). It'll be either Chauncey Gilliam (6-5, 230) or Jake Kretzer (6-8, 210) matched up on Hutcheson. Actually, that makes it a better matchup for Hutcheson, but I'll still take the Zips combo in a 40-minute game. Kretzer has the length to bother him, while Gilliam has the strength and quickness advantage. Overall, the more I look at it, just don't see how this is close if the Zips come to play. PG- Abreu vs. Ritchie: Ritchie has a size advantage, but that's it. Abreu is better at all facets of the game, and Abreu has shined against PGs with the same size (but more skill) than Ritchie in the past. SG- Walsh vs. Pokley: This could be relatively close. Both guys have the ability to knock down the 3, though, again I'll give the overall edge to Walsh since he can score inside the arc (47 percent compared to 29 percent by Pokley ... and Walsh has more attempts from inside). SF- Gilliam vs Hutcheson: Again, this will be relatively close, since Gilliam is slumping right now. But if he can get back to the way he played offensively last year (or even earlier this year), I'll give him the slight advantage. It's still as push at best. While Hutcheson's pure scoring averages look decent, he's getting it on a lot of volume, and low percentages. PF - Treadwell vs. Paul: This looks to be an interesting battle on the glass, as both guys are very good rebounders. It's a wash there. While Paul is averaging slightly more points (and playing more minutes per game), Treadwell has the offensive advantage. He's trending up, while Paul hasn't shot the ball well as of late ... over the past five games, Treadwell is shooting 61 percent from the field compared to Paul's 41 percent. Overall, the advantage goes to Treadwell. C- Zeke vs. Wittingham: From the way Wittingham has played, this should be the best battle Zeke has all year in MAC play, since Da'Shonte Riley has no offensive game to speak of. Still, as well as Wittingham has played, there is still no way he has an advantage on Zeke (who has also been dominant lately). Over the past five games, Wittingham has put up an impressive line of: 16.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.6 blocks, 1.2 assists, .4 steals, .564 shooting percentage and .783 FT percentage in 30.8 minutes per game. Very good numbers against solid competition. In the same span, Zeke has averaged: 16.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3 blocks, 1 assist, .6 steals, .750 shooting percentage and .786 FT percentage in 23.2 minutes per game. Give Zeke 30,8 minutes in that span and he's at 23.2, 9.7, 4.2, 1.4 and .8 per game. Granted, the level of competition the two have faced favors WMU. Still, as good as Wittingham has been, Zeke has been just as good, if not better (at this point, Zeke can put up numbers on anybody, and the MAC is going to find out, this isn't the offensively challenged Marshall of the past). Still, starter-per-starter, WMU should hold its own. The Zips don't have a position where it's an absolute mismatch, outside of Abreu (but backup PG is the biggest weakness). On a homecourt, I'd give the Zips a 5 or so point advantage. But, since nobody starts five guys 40 minutes per game, where the Zips should dominate is bench play. There really isn't much argument that the Zips' top three off the bench ... Harney, Kretzer and Forsythe are all better than anybody coming off WMU's bench. And if needed, the Zips can go 11 deep compared to 8 deep by WMU. The Zips backups should present a 10-plus point advantage over WMU's over the course of a game. Overall, it's should take a great performance from WMU and a mediocre-to-bad performance by Akron for this to be close. Hopefully, the Zips come out to prove that they are the team to beat in the league and pull-away for a 15-plus point win, which, no offense to WMU, is completely possible, if not expected. EA3, appreciate you stopping by. I've never had an issue with WMU, and it's actually one of the few MAC teams I root for to do well. I respect Steve Hawkins (though, as been pointed out, I slipped and called him Dan ... ala the former Boise, Colorado football coach). WMU generally has a bunch of hard-nosed kids who aren't dislikable (outside of Stainbrook, who was a complete goon). Regardless of what happens Wednesday, I'm rooting for you guys to have a great season, and to win the West, which looks wide open right now with Toledo's banishment (and struggles) and EMU showing that they still are EMU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in Green Posted January 7, 2013 Report Share Posted January 7, 2013 Hustle Belt has a long and detailed analysis of how the Zips and WMU stack up right now: Western Michigan - Akron Preview Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDZip Posted January 7, 2013 Report Share Posted January 7, 2013 If I lived closer I would do this but it looks like Jeremy Guy out of the MAC office wants a couple of Zips fans to join him Wednesday. This was tweeted less than an hour ago. Anyone tried it yet? Jeremy Guy @JGuyMAC LAST CHANCE: Looking for 2 #Akron fans to join me for an ALL-ACCESS experience at Wed. night @ZipsMBB game v. #WMU. RT & Follow to enter! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergeant Zip Posted January 7, 2013 Report Share Posted January 7, 2013 SF- Gilliam vs Hutcheson: Again, this will be relatively close, since Gilliam is slumping right now. But if he can get back to the way he played offensively last year (or even earlier this year), I'll give him the slight advantage. It's still as push at best. While Hutcheson's pure scoring averages look decent, he's getting it on a lot of volume, and low percentages.George says "Gilliam has a meniscus tear that will require surgery. Will miss about two weeks." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wadszip Posted January 8, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2013 George says "Gilliam has a meniscus tear that will require surgery. Will miss about two weeks." Yep, obviously, I posted that before the news came out. From what KD said tonight, it looks like Harney will start at the three, so we will see that Harney-Hutcheson matchup afterall. It'll be interesting to see how the minutes shake out. The loss of Chauncey hurts the huge depth advantage the Zips hold, but what it will do is open up more minutes for Nick and Tree (and Zeke and Forsythe), who all deserve more based on recent play. We'll also see more of Nick and Tree on the floor at the same time (maybe I'm not paying enough attention) but it seems like those guys have been subbing in for each other at the 4 spot. Also, giving Harney more minutes at the 3, gives the Zips a three-man rotation at the 4-5 spots between Tree, Zeke and Forysythe. Maybe we will see more of Zeke and Forsythe on the floor at the same time, something KD hinted to before the season, but really hasn't happened yet. Losing Chauncey hurts, especially since he is a much better perimeter threat than Nick, and hopefully he returns 100 percent down the stretch, because we'll need him, but this may not be devastating for the short term as it gives KD more leeway to tinker with the lineups, while at the same time giving all four of the "bigs" a couple extra minutes per game. Thankfully, we are one of the few teams in the MAC that can lose somebody like Chauncey (on top of losing Diggs) and still be competitive (if still not the favorite) against anybody in the MAC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Kangaroo Posted January 8, 2013 Report Share Posted January 8, 2013 I've never seen so much pregame observation regarding a game the Zips will win by 15. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in Green Posted January 8, 2013 Report Share Posted January 8, 2013 @wadszip, the starting lineup for the past two games has been Zeke, Rico, Chauncey, Tree and Harney, who replaced Walsh in the starting lineup when Walsh was playing hurt. So Harney has already been starting at the three with Chauncey moving back to the two. If Walsh is feeling better, he should slide back into the starting lineup replacing Chauncey at the two. Harney could also play some minutes at the four if needed, as could Kretzer. Also remember that Kretzer averaged more than 30 minutes per game in the Zips' first four games, so he's capable of playing long minutes without wearing down. This is where the deep bench pays off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akzipper Posted January 9, 2013 Report Share Posted January 9, 2013 Zips will struggle out of the gate if the terrible shooting continues. WMU win by 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZachTheZip Posted January 9, 2013 Report Share Posted January 9, 2013 Zips will struggle out of the gate if the terrible shooting continues. WMU win by 5. A very significant part of that terrible shooting came from Chauncey and his bum knee. Walsh is healthy now and back in form. Kretzer looks to be getting out of his shooting slump as well, and is also figuring out that he's big enough to do more than be an outside shooter. Akron by 14. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowdyZip Posted January 9, 2013 Report Share Posted January 9, 2013 A very significant part of that terrible shooting came from Chauncey and his bum knee. Walsh is healthy now and back in form. Kretzer looks to be getting out of his shooting slump as well, and is also figuring out that he's big enough to do more than be an outside shooter. Akron by 14. Vegas agrees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in Green Posted January 9, 2013 Report Share Posted January 9, 2013 Three of the Zips' primary 3-point shooters -- Chauncey, Rico and Walsh -- all saw their 3-point percentages drop off while playing with injuries. Rico and Walsh have already started bouncing back, and Chauncey will, too. For perspective, the Zips hit 37% of their 3s last season. After the first 6 games this season, they were hitting 40.1% of their 3s. That has fallen to the current 34.8% over the last 7 games while Rico was still recovering from his ankle sprain, Walsh was playing through his injury and Chauncey's play was adversely affected by his injured knee. Prediction: At the end of this season, the Zips' 3-point shooting percentage will be better than last season's 37%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akzipper Posted January 10, 2013 Report Share Posted January 10, 2013 I'm convinced this team does not practice the layup...awful shooting yet again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akronzips71 Posted January 10, 2013 Report Share Posted January 10, 2013 I know the game plan!!!!!!!!!!! We are going to confuse ourselves to victory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy5 Posted January 10, 2013 Report Share Posted January 10, 2013 I'm convinced this team does not practice the layup...awful shooting yet again I've always said D-1 players need more time practicing layups. lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cms133@uakron.edu Posted January 10, 2013 Report Share Posted January 10, 2013 Seems like they're trying to make sure French doesn't get caught badmouthing anyone again. They're cutting him off before he even says who called the time out haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akzipper Posted January 10, 2013 Report Share Posted January 10, 2013 I will say that Western Michigan is much more enjoyable team since that Skidmark center doesn't play for them anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quickzips Posted January 10, 2013 Report Share Posted January 10, 2013 Zips will struggle out of the gate if the terrible shooting continues. WMU win by 5. You were only off by 27. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy5 Posted January 10, 2013 Report Share Posted January 10, 2013 Honestly, I'll be a little disappointed if we do worse than 14-2 in the MAC. I see us possibly losing one at OU and maybe dropping another on an off night. Knock on wood, but we're not a MAC team this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDZip Posted January 10, 2013 Report Share Posted January 10, 2013 Seems like they're trying to make sure French doesn't get caught badmouthing anyone again. They're cutting him off before he even says who called the time out haha. He was hammering the ref named Ferrari pretty good. Not a great game but the Zips blew them out in the second half. Maybe some of that depth paying off. Hope Zeke is OK, he was limping pretty noticably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quickzips Posted January 10, 2013 Report Share Posted January 10, 2013 The sad part is the Zips played a pretty poor game overall tonight and still won by 22. The MAC is just not very good at all this year. OU and the Zips, that is about it. Maybe Can't could make a little noise. EMU can try to keep a game close with the boring old Charlie Coles slow it down style game. The rest of the conference is utter crap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDZip Posted January 10, 2013 Report Share Posted January 10, 2013 The MAC is just not very good at all this year. OU and the Zips, that is about it. Maybe Can't could make a little noise. Can't just went down to Toledo, West went 3-1 against the East tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derrt Posted January 10, 2013 Report Share Posted January 10, 2013 Good game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in Green Posted January 10, 2013 Report Share Posted January 10, 2013 OK game with the usual mix of good and bad. But a 22-point conference wins against one of the best teams from the MAC West is mostly good. The main thing that came across to me during this game is that it no longer makes a big difference if Zeke gets into foul trouble and plays shorter minutes than usual. Forsythe is visibly improving from game to game, and there's really no significant fall-off in center performance. This is the second time in the last three games that Pat has played more minutes than Zeke and done a great job on both the offensive and defensive ends. It has to be a little intimidating for other MAC teams to know they're going to be facing a quality 7-foot center every minute of every game against the Zips. A little bonus from tonight is that WMU came in with an RPI of 48, and the Zips' RPI jumped from 100+ up to 80 immediately after the win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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