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I think somebody's model was pretty good


Zipmeister

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A fairly soft 2014 conference schedule was released today.

I can't recall who it was, but somebody on here pointed out a pattern he had observed for conference games. He even had a multi-colored chart to support his predictions for who would be on our schedule this coming season, and predicted a relatively soft schedule.

I tried to locate the thread his post appeared in without success.

OK, who are you and how well did your model work?

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A fairly soft 2014 conference schedule was released today.

I can't recall who it was, but somebody on here pointed out a pattern he had observed for conference games. He even had a multi-colored chart to support his predictions for who would be on our schedule this coming season, and predicted a relatively soft schedule.

I tried to locate the thread his post appeared in without success.

OK, who are you and how well did your model work?

I believe balsy

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GoZips.com story

Home:

Bowling Green - lose HC Clausen but keep a lot of talent.

Eastern Michigan - should be a W

Massachusetts - should be a W

Miami (Ohio) - should be a W

Away:

Ball State - lose Wenning and Sneed, but keep HC Lembo....he must have a skeleton or two.

Buffalo - lose 3 main players in Mack, Oliver and Neutz

Can't State - should be a W

Ohio. - no TT makes it a winnable game.

Really there is no reason to not have a good chance at a bowl :gun: :gun: :gun:

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Yes I created it. My methodology was quite simple...look for patterns, and predict the schedule based upon patterns. 2012 prediction was 100% accurate, this year was 80%, because I got one wrong.

We play four teams every year: Can't State, Ohio, Miami and UMass (which took the spot of Temple). Every year we played 5 East teams and 3 west teams. We never seemed to play BG or Buffalo more than two years in a row.

West teams were more difficult to predict, but usually they seemed to alternate on a home-home every other year or so. EMU hadn't been on the schedule in two years, which meant to me that they were a likely opponent. NIU and Toledo had been on the schedule for two years (home-home) so they were not likely. The odd-ball out was Ball-St.

This year appears to have thrown a wrench into my initial thoughts...but at least it was mostly accurate and hopefully it helps us predict future opponents a little easier.

The wrench was that we play all MAC East opponents and only 2 West opponents.

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Yes I created it. My methodology was quite simple...look for patterns, and predict the schedule based upon patterns. 2012 prediction was 100% accurate, this year was 80%, because I got one wrong.

We play four teams every year: Can't State, Ohio, Miami and UMass (which took the spot of Temple). Every year we played 5 East teams and 3 west teams. We never seemed to play BG or Buffalo more than two years in a row.

West teams were more difficult to predict, but usually they seemed to alternate on a home-home every other year or so. EMU hadn't been on the schedule in two years, which meant to me that they were a likely opponent. NIU and Toledo had been on the schedule for two years (home-home) so they were not likely. The odd-ball out was Ball-St.

This year appears to have thrown a wrench into my initial thoughts...but at least it was mostly accurate and hopefully it helps us predict future opponents a little easier.

The wrench was that we play all MAC East opponents and only 2 West opponents.

Its a shame your prediction of WMU replacing BGSU wasn't right. Then the schedule would have been about as good as we could ask for.

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Yes I created it. My methodology was quite simple...look for patterns, and predict the schedule based upon patterns. 2012 prediction was 100% accurate, this year was 80%, because I got one wrong.
Impressive! Thanks for taking the time. You should do one (pattern) with the last 10 years of the Zips basketball ATS (if you can find the data). Make one category, when we are five point underdogs or more.

I'm probably in the minority, but Miami, EMU, and UMass at home do not excite me. BG does! If it gets us to a bowl, great!

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Really there is no reason to not have a good chance at a bowl :gun: :gun: :gun:

I agree completely. There are four games there we should win for sure. Throw in a 1-AA victory and we are at five. Along the way, we should able to win two other games giving us at least 7. Who knows, maybe 8. Probably not the MAC though, but again, who knows. I'm sure there is a bowl game somewhere in the south (Hint: Alabama) that would love to have a Bowden coaching in it. I have a friend who has a place in Fairhope so my lodging is already taken care of.

Our expectations next year should be to win. We've done enough "building" in the MAC and over the past 25 years. It's time to win.

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I think we'll be favored against EMU, UMass and Miami at home. BG will be winnable. So there's at least 3 wins. On the road - Can't State, Buffalo should be Ws, with OU and BSU as winnable road games. I think there's at least 5 MAC wins there, as well as OOC plus pulling out maybe another win or two in MAC play. I like it. Last year we went through two steps of Bowden's lose big - lose small - win small - win big strategy. We went from losing small at the beginning of the year to winning small at the end of the year. If we can continue winning close ones, I see us winning big by the end of the year.

Which brings me to the next point. All depends on when we play which team. As GP1 says, momentum means a lot. Hopefully we have BG and Ball St later in the year after we've racked up some easy Ws.

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All depends on when we play which team. As GP1 says, momentum means a lot.

It sure does. It would be nice to get some easy wins early. Easy wins not only build confidence and momentum, but they offer a team the opportunity to play a lot of players. Playing a lot of players gives experience to young guys and rest to the starters....both are critical for late season success...if a starter gets hurt, there is experience behind him. More importantly, players get hurt more often when they are tired. Rested players stay healthy.

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Hopefully we have BG and Ball St later in the year after we've racked up some easy Ws.

In Bowden's master plan "win by a little, then win by a lot."

We began winning by a little at mid-season. It would be nice to take care of the lower-echelon MAC programs comfortably, No more nip-and-tuck games vs. UMass...and whip K.e.n.t. by a lot. :screwks:

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Yes I created it. My methodology was quite simple...look for patterns, and predict the schedule based upon patterns. 2012 prediction was 100% accurate, this year was 80%, because I got one wrong.

We play four teams every year: Can't State, Ohio, Miami and UMass (which took the spot of Temple). Every year we played 5 East teams and 3 west teams. We never seemed to play BG or Buffalo more than two years in a row.

West teams were more difficult to predict, but usually they seemed to alternate on a home-home every other year or so. EMU hadn't been on the schedule in two years, which meant to me that they were a likely opponent. NIU and Toledo had been on the schedule for two years (home-home) so they were not likely. The odd-ball out was Ball-St.

This year appears to have thrown a wrench into my initial thoughts...but at least it was mostly accurate and hopefully it helps us predict future opponents a little easier.

The wrench was that we play all MAC East opponents and only 2 West opponents.

Still, nice work on your part. I believe if you looked for patterns in the rest of the MAC teams scheduling in would improve the accuracy of your predictions.

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GoZips.com story

Home:

Bowling Green - lose HC Clausen but keep a lot of talent.

Eastern Michigan - should be a W

Massachusetts - should be a W

Miami (Ohio) - should be a W

Away:

Ball State - lose Wenning and Sneed, but keep HC Lembo....he must have a skeleton or two.

Buffalo - lose 3 main players in Mack, Oliver and Neutz

Can't State - should be a W

Ohio. - no TT makes it a winnable game.

Really there is no reason to not have a good chance at a bowl :gun: :gun: :gun:

I was so hoping to see two of the Directionals this year :rolleyes:

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Impressive! Thanks for taking the time. You should do one (pattern) with the last 10 years of the Zips basketball ATS (if you can find the data). Make one category, when we are five point underdogs or more.

I'm probably in the minority, but Miami, EMU, and UMass at home do not excite me. BG does! If it gets us to a bowl, great!

I'll see what I can do with that. It'll be when I have free time...perhaps we can get another Polar Vortex to give me the time? :lol:

As for the excitement...going from a recently graduated student's perspective...I think it's more exciting to have home wins (or easy home wins) this year than bringing in the good competition. Our first game is against Howard, which largest student attendance is that first game. If we were to win it, go on the road for two weeks and pull off a win against either Pitt or Penn St, students will continue coming. Keep winning, students will keep coming.

I've been saying it for awhile, but the key to filling Infocision is getting the students out. Both now, and in the future. Build a culture of winning with the new students, a certain percentage of them will return as alums.

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I'll see what I can do with that. It'll be when I have free time...perhaps we can get another Polar Vortex to give me the time? :lol:

As for the excitement...going from a recently graduated student's perspective...I think it's more exciting to have home wins (or easy home wins) this year than bringing in the good competition. Our first game is against Howard, which largest student attendance is that first game. If we were to win it, go on the road for two weeks and pull off a win against either Pitt or Penn St, students will continue coming. Keep winning, students will keep coming.

I've been saying it for awhile, but the key to filling Infocision is getting the students out. Both now, and in the future. Build a culture of winning with the new students, a certain percentage of them will return as alums.

Penn St. And Pitt are both very winnable, IMHO.

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Penn St. And Pitt are both very winnable, IMHO.

I completely agree. I believe it is entirely possible that we could go 4-0 (I can't believe I'm actually saying that). But a home win against Howard to start it off. However I guess I'm being cautious...My expectation is to split the OCC schedule 2-2, with the losses being 4th quarter battles. Anything better than that is good...anything less than that makes me question if we really have taken a step up.

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