Tourney (MAC and NCAA) picture

[wadszip]

From the way I see it, if the Zips win out, they are probably straddling that 12/13 line if you use a mix of RPI (which still favors the Zips) and KenPom (which pretty much hates us, due to a low defensive ranking) as a rough estimate of where teams will be slotted. IMO, a win against Kent and the MAC tourney puts the Zips squarley on the 12 line (looking at a mid 30s RPI and mid 60s KenPom ranking). A loss to Kent and the MAC title puts them squarley on the 13 line, though maybe as low as a 14 if KenPom is more heavily factored. So tonight's game is huge if you consider the odds of advancing as a 12 vs. 13/14

 

As for the MAC tournament, it's gonna shake out how it shakes out, but looking ahead to the final games around the league, there is a scenario that looks real good for Akron (thanks to the simulator that was posted in the OU thread).

 

IMO, this is what we have to root for this weekend:

 

1. Akron over Kent (that's a given regardless of how it affects seedings)

2. Buffalo over BG: likely a given, even if it's at BG.

3.Ohio over Miami: see above

4. CMU over WMU: At CMU, so a good bet.

5. Toledo over EMU: It's at Toledo, but who knows with those two teams. A lot of talent, crap shoot results.

6. Ball State over NIU: This one is the most important, but probably the toughest to happen since NIU is 16-1 at home. On the bright side, BSU is a good road team.

 

If those play out, here is the MAC seedings:

Top half:

1. Akron vs. 8. NIU or 9. EMU. You'd think NIU would be a favorite at home over EMU, and NIU is a good matchup for Akron in Cleveland. But even if EMU wins, while I think would pose more of a challenge, they would be going from Chicago on a Tuesday night to Cleveland to play a noon game on Thursday. Tough turnaround for either.

 

4. Ball State vs. 5. Buffalo or 12. BG: let's pencil in Buffalo. Either way, the Zips match up with any of the three, though would be rooting for BSU to knock off Buffalo on Thursday. Don't see BSU beating us. Buffalo, though, is a different story, though they would be doing it in 3 games in four days. While it was 4 in 4 for Akrom last year, we saw how that much play took out of the Zips in the second half of last year's semi against Buffalo.

 

Really, can't ask for a better draw than that.

 

On the bottom:

2. CMU vs. 7. Toledo or 10. Miami. You figure Toledo will get past Miami (who is horrible on the road). That sets up a quarterfinal (on the opposite side) of what you can argue are the two most talented teams in the league, outside of Akron.

 

No. 3 Ohio vs. No. 6 Kent or 11. WMU. Kent is 2-0 against WMU, but neither were easy. Still, you have to love the fact that either OU or Kent (maybe both) would be gone before the semis. I like OU down here, and against either CMU or Toledo.

 

What does that set up... Akron vs. Ohio for the NCAA on the line. As much as well all hate Kent, this is probably the biggest current rivaly in MAC hoops. If this happens, it would be the fourth time in seven years the two would meet in the MAC title game. You talk about a big-time atmosphere, I would bet anything that this game draws 12,000-plus. And when you factor in the pregame bar scene, it will be a rowdy 12,000. It always is when you have two of three between Akron/Ohio/Kent in the finals. Really makes the MAC title game one of the best conference tourney atmospheres in CBK, including any of the power leagues.

 

That's just best case. Hopefully, the Zips are prepared to play their best basketball regardless, since there is no shot at an at-large and an NIT bid (especially since it will likely be a road game, probably at OSU, thanks to ESPN) would be a colossal disappointment.

Edited March 3, 2016 by wadszip

[NWAkron]

Glad someone got use out of the tourney simulator I stole from the Bobcat blog.  I told someone yesterday the big game for us on Friday other than our own is NIU/Ball State.  That game seems to have most effect on seedings. Seems like the basketball gods are saying "not so fast" to the Cardinals, so the Huskies will take that one on that crazy black wood floor.

[kreed5120]

I think winning out makes us a 12 seed, however, if teams like Monmouth and Valparaiso get knocked out early, I can see us perhaps snagging an 11th.

[Sportsjunkie330]

I'd be shocked if this team is any higher than a 13 seed if they make it.

[skip-zip]

Again, I'm shocked that projections show our RPI in the teens if we win out, and in the 20s if we lose one more game.  I would have never guessed that was possible after the recent losses. 

 

I know my opinion, but I have to ask the rest of you this...

Besides the typical "lack of reputation" or "a big name" shouldn't we all be feeling slighted if we're a low seed?  Someone stated that we'd maybe be a 12 if we win out?  How could a #16 RPI put you at the 12 spot?  That's technically for teams ranked somewhere around the mid-40s.  That makes no sense. 

 

If we do indeed end up in the 20s or lower, one could say that this technically should put someone in a 6-8 spot.  But even though that will never happen, why shouldn't we expect a possible single digit seed?  Why shouldn't we expect something like Ken+ was awarded in 2008 for a similar accomplishment?  Especially since we dominated a conference that is much more highly regarded than it was in 2008?

 

If our RPI ends up anywhere below 30, and we get a typical 12 or 13 seed, I am going to be outraged, and feel that someone predetermined the slot that the MAC champ would occupy, regardless of who the team was.  A few of the rest of you can choose to look at that any way you want. 

 

[K92]

These projections are cool and everything, but the information I need to know is where is the "official bar"  this year?  Anybody know?  Winking Lizard again or back to The Clevelander or somewhere else?

Inquiring minds want to know.

[NWAkron]

The Corner Alley

[K92]

4 minutes ago, NWAkron said:

The Corner Alley

Seriously???

[NWAkron]

Yes.  Home base is the Corner Alley.  As was told to me from athletic Dept.

[LZIp]

The new Corner Alley is nice, but I don't really picture it as a place to get rowdy before some big games.

[skip-zip]

10 minutes ago, NWAkron said:

Yes.  Home base is the Corner Alley.  As was told to me from athletic Dept.

 

That is correct.  We'll se how it works out.  I at least like the location better. 

[gozips19]

1 hour ago, K92 said:

Seriously???

They have recently redone the Corner Alley and it's a lot better. Much more of a sportsbar vibe. 

[kreed5120]

2 hours ago, Sportsjunkie330 said:

I'd be shocked if this team is any higher than a 13 seed if they make it.

 

You have to remember there are 32 auto bids awarded. In order for Akron to get a 12 seed they have to be regarded as being better than 18 of those auto bid teams. 10 of those are 15 and 16 seed teams that have no chance of catching Akron even if Akron lost to Kent. From there you have the OVC and Southland conference whose best teams are already decently behind Akron and play in conferences much weaker than the MAC so Akron should only further distance itself. Eliminating the 9 projected multi bid conferences plus the ones I mentioned already that leaves the below.

 

America East - Best team RPI 66 with 212 SOS. SOS will continue to drop as the strongest opponent that they can face in conference tourney is 145. Next opponent RPI 296.

Big West - Best team RPI 91 with a 280 SOS. Plays in weaker conference than MAC so Akron would separate themselves.

CAA - Comparable conference to the MAC. It's 50/50 if Akron would be higher than top team

Horizon - Valpo would be higher than MAC, however if upset Akron would top their auto-bid team

Ivy - Best team has comparable resume to Akron, but no conference tournament gives them no chance of boosting it

MAAC - Monmouth would be ahead of Akron, but if they get upset Akron would top their auto bid

MVC - Wichita State easily tops Akron, Evansville or any other MVC team that potentially upsets Wichita State not so much

Mountain West - Sand Diego State is ahead of Akron, but if they get knocked out Akron would top whoever upsets them

Southern - Akron should be able to distance itself from Chattanooga whose conference tournament features a bunch of cupcakes

Sunbelt - Ark-Little Rock would likely stay above Akron by winning its poor conference. If upset that team would be well behind Akron.

 

Moral of the story is we need to cheer for 2nd and 3rd place teams to win auto bids of 1 bid conference. In cases like Wichita State they would make the tournament anyways, but that doesn't hinder us b/c we aren't vying for an at-large bid.

[Blue & Gold]

I've got to make plans for next week.  

 

Our game is definitely 12:00 on Thursday?

 

[Big E Zip]

9 minutes ago, Blue & Gold said:

I've got to make plans for next week.  

 

Our game is definitely 12:00 on Thursday?

 

Yes.

[zippyman23]

4 hours ago, skip-zip said:

Again, I'm shocked that projections show our RPI in the teens if we win out, and in the 20s if we lose one more game.  I would have never guessed that was possible after the recent losses. 

 

 

RPIforecast now has us at 24 if we win out, and 35 if win out and lose in the MAC championship. I'd imagine there will be a lot of variation with those projections with conference tournaments and matchups not set.

[kreed5120]

Akron's RPI is currently 40. I wouldn't be surprised if winning out makes it so that we are ~30.

[skip-zip]

30 minutes ago, zippyman23 said:

 

RPIforecast now has us at 24 if we win out, and 35 if win out and lose in the MAC championship. I'd imagine there will be a lot of variation with those projections with conference tournaments and matchups not set.

 

Thanks for the update Zippyman.  That seems like numbers that are a lot closer to reality.  I just wasn't seeing any way possible that a scenario could exist that would allow us to climb from 40 to 16 over the course of a few games at the end of the season. 

 

10 to 15 spots?  Maybe

25 spots? No Way

[RowdyZip]

Took a gander at realtimerpi.com because they have historical data. Last 3 years, highest rpi ranked teams to not make the tournament were 31, 29, and 34. Not that we could ever be top 30 if we lost another game. Things would've gotten interesting if that Millet debacle hadn't happened. 

[GJGood]

2 minutes ago, RowdyZip said:

Took a gander at realtimerpi.com because they have historical data. Last 3 years, highest rpi ranked teams to not make the tournament were 31, 29, and 34. Not that we could ever be top 30 if we lost another game. Things would've gotten interesting if that Millet debacle hadn't happened. 

 

True, but the one that still bothers me most is the one at NIU.

[kreed5120]

I feel 1 fewer regular season loss combined with a MAC championship loss would have made us the highest RPI team to get left out of the tourney. 2 fewer and I feel we could be an at-large team. I missed the NIU loss so I can't speak to that, but the game I wish we could have back was the Green Bay game. It was the 3rd and final game of a 6 day road trip. We didn't look 100% there and still almost came away with the win.

[bUAkronG]

Some food for thought.... Both Iona and Arkansas are currently sitting just outside of the top-100 in RPI. If either or both is able to make some noise in their conference tournaments(i.e. Iona knocks off Monmouth for the Big Dance Bid), and the Zips win out yet falter in the MAC Championship, I could hypothetically see us at least being in the conversation for an at-large with an RPI probably in the low 30's and a possible 5-1, 6-1, or 6-2 record against the top 100. Additionally, while the Zips have not shown well in the NCAA's, this team being a 3 point shooting team could potentially garner at least a few looks from the Committee.

 

Who knows. For the record, I'm only speculating, not insinuating that this team deserves anything. Just looking at the numbers. 

I'd much rather win tomorrow and 3 games in Cleveland and ride the high into the Dance 

[dre22era]

When it comes to how the Selection Committee has treated the MAC the past decade the numbers are useless to me. 

The selection committee hates us as they screw the MAC over annually. We have to win out period. 

[mes102]

9 Toledo @ 8 EMU 

1 Akron

 

12 BG @ 5 KSU

4 CMU

 

10 WMU @ 7 NIU

2 Ohio

 

11 Miami @ 6 Ball St

3 Buffalo

[The Hip Zip]

I am taking nothing for granted in Cleveland, Toledo seems to be a tough opponent always and beat us already.  Eastern gave us all we could handle here and does have some talent and size. They also lead the MAC in technical fouls and tattoos.  I do love the fact that we won tonight despite not having our best stuff and that is the mark of a really good team.