wadszip Posted January 21, 2017 Report Share Posted January 21, 2017 Figured I would share this. I've been keeping track of every game MAC teams have played and using the KenPom rankings (personal preference). I think everybody who follows realizes this Zips team still hasn't reached its full potential (KD has been saying that for weeks). Still, how much better Akron has been compared to the rest of the league (both in and out of conference) is clearly evident. BTW, these numbers were updated through Thursday night, so didn't include movement from the dozen or so games played last night (though I did include EMU since I saw they still stayed in the top 100 despite the loss): Top 100 wins: The MAC now has three (which is awful; I think Akron alone had 3 by this point last season). Anyway, those belong to Kent State (Texas), Akron (Eastern Michigan) and Buffalo (Eastern Michigan) Top 150 wins: The MAC has 12. Akron leads with 4 (EMU, Ohio, Marshall, Georgia Southern ... UC-Irvine is at 152 btw). After that, Buffalo at 2 (EMU, Weber State) is the only other with more than one. Top 200 wins (I readily admit that I hate going down this far, but that's how poorly the league as a whole has played): The MAC has 43. Akron has 10 (or nearly 25 percent). Next highest is Toledo and Ohio with 5. If you look at the league's overall top 25 wins (this also includes conference games), the Zips have 6: No. 2 EMU, No. 6 Ohio, No. 8 Marshall, No. 9 Georgia Southern, No. 13 UC-Irvine, No. 25 Mercer. Toledo, and somewhat surprisingly, Kent, are next with three ... though after Texas, the Flashes' other two are No. 22 Wofford and No. 24 Ball State. In summary, the Zips own 33 percent of the league's top 100 wins; 33 percent of the top 150 wins; 23 percent of the top 200 wins; and 24 percent of the league's overall top 25 wins. Granted, these numbers are fluid, and aren't anything that is going to put this team in at-large territory, but just shows the amount of separation between Akron and the rest of the league. It's something I plan to continue to keep track of, so will periodically post updates if there is interest. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAkron Posted January 21, 2017 Report Share Posted January 21, 2017 Hard to know what MAC games to follow today. Guess I'm focusing on NIU and OU. I hope the Kittens win so their fans can come up for air and leave us alone on Zipsnation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDZip Posted January 21, 2017 Report Share Posted January 21, 2017 15 minutes ago, NWAkron said: Hard to know what MAC games to follow today. Guess I'm focusing on NIU and OU. I hope the Kittens win so their fans can come up for air and leave us alone on Zipsnation. Plus it would put everyone two games back six games into the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAkron Posted January 21, 2017 Report Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, MDZip said: Plus it would put everyone two games back six games into the season. I swear I was only thinking of the Kitten faithful Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wadszip Posted January 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2017 (edited) 29 minutes ago, NWAkron said: Hard to know what MAC games to follow today. Guess I'm focusing on NIU and OU. I hope the Kittens win so their fans can come up for air and leave us alone on Zipsnation. Yeah, that one is tough. The Bobcats are close enough to the top 100 where a win could vault them back in. At this point, while stuff like that won't make-or-break Akron's at-large chances, it could have an effect on which tournament line the Zips get put on if they do win the MAC tournament. Plus, while I don't think NIU is a real threat, a loss there would also drop them two games behind the Zips (and we have to go to DeKalb). So, I'm also rooting for OU. On the other hand, if Ohio loses, the Zips have a 3 game lead in the East at the 1/3 mark. So, won't be heartbroken if NIU does win. The other game that I'm looking forward to and will watch is WMU-Buffalo. I'm for sure rooting for WMU there. A Buffalo loss and the Zips have a 4 game lead on them (so even if Buffalo were to somehow sweep the Zips, would still have to make up two more games). Plus, since WMU is one of the two teams we play twice in cross-overs, they are one of the two West teams that helps Akron if they do well. Begrudgingly, EMU is the other. Edited January 21, 2017 by wadszip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZachTheZip Posted January 21, 2017 Report Share Posted January 21, 2017 Divisions no longer factor in to tournament seeding. An Ohio win is better for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZachTheZip Posted January 22, 2017 Report Share Posted January 22, 2017 (edited) OU takes down NIU, and Akron jumps to 39 in the RPI. http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html Edited January 22, 2017 by ZachTheZip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zip JD Posted January 22, 2017 Report Share Posted January 22, 2017 Thanks for all the number crunching wadszip. If my quick checking is correct, the MAC is 0-6 against top 25 teams this year (AP or Coaches polls). Akron (Gonzaga, Creighton), Buffalo (Xavier, Creighton) and WMU (Villanova, UCLA) are the only 3 to even schedule top tier teams. The MAC will continue its streak as a 1 bid league to the NCAA tourney (maybe the NIT as well) for another year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skip-zip Posted January 22, 2017 Report Share Posted January 22, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, Zip JD said: The MAC will continue its streak as a 1 bid league to the NCAA tourney (maybe the NIT as well) for another year. Way too early to say that, unless you're adding losses that aren't there yet. At only 3 losses, it would surely be a lock. I agree with part of what you said, meaning that we don't play enough top teams. And we don't beat enough top teams. I'll also contend that the YSU loss is a killer. But on the flip side, playing 2 Top-10 teams this year has helped the RPI (currently 39 - see above). Have we ever been in the Top 40 in mid-January? And winning two neutral court tournaments might help too. Besides all of the negatives that work against us every year (and there's plenty), I've always said that going "close to undefeated" would trump all of that. And I'm not ready to start adding more losses quite yet. 30 Wins and we're IN for sure. Take it to the bank. Edited January 22, 2017 by skip-zip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kreed5120 Posted January 22, 2017 Report Share Posted January 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, skip-zip said: Way too early to say that, unless you're adding losses that aren't there yet. At only 3 losses, it would surely be a lock. I agree with part of what you said, meaning that we don't play enough top teams. And we don't beat enough top teams. I'll also contend that the YSU loss is a killer. But on the flip side, playing 2 Top-10 teams this year has helped the RPI (currently 39 - see above). Have we ever been in the Top 40 in mid-January? And winning two neutral court tournaments might help too. Besides all of the negatives that work against us every year (and there's plenty), I've always said that going "close to undefeated" would trump all of that. And I'm not ready to start adding more losses quite yet. You'd have to add at least 1 loss if you're insinuating Akron as an at-large team. Certainly no other MAC team would remotely be in a position to make tourney without winning the MAC tourney. A 30-4 Akron team I'm guessing would get in, but I don't see us going 18-0 in MAC play. We still have 7 road games left to play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skip-zip Posted January 22, 2017 Report Share Posted January 22, 2017 (edited) Kent won 28 games in 2008, and was a #9 Seed. That's well within the pool of At-Large participants. Let me just say this. I only responded to that previous post because I think it's ridiculous to be looking at a 16-3 Akron team right now, in mid-January, and proclaiming the "a MAC team is not getting an At Large" crap. I'll wait until we have a couple more losses before I do that. But, I am not putting any games in the loss column until they happen. Right now, we're better than every team in this league by 2 games, and I hope it doesn't end. Edited January 22, 2017 by skip-zip 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LZIp Posted January 22, 2017 Report Share Posted January 22, 2017 Ah..the annual at-large talk is back. I thought we wouldn't have to worry about that this year after the YSU loss. Gotta love it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skip-zip Posted January 22, 2017 Report Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, LZIp said: Ah..the annual at-large talk is back. I thought we wouldn't have to worry about that this year after the YSU loss. Gotta love it. I've already made it clear what the YSU loss meant to our chances. But that was before we ran through the next 18 game with only 2 losses to Top-10 teams. Read my post. I only responded when someone came out with the "Akron has no chance" already, because it is indeed too early to see how this turns out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zip JD Posted January 22, 2017 Report Share Posted January 22, 2017 My comment was about the MAC being a one bid conference and wasn't directed at the Zips. The MAC as a whole plays a terrible OOC schedule - and seldom beats anyone really good when they do. We are one of the few teams that took on any ranked teams and we do not get much help from the rest of the conference. If Akron wins the tourney at the Q, tell me one other MAC school that would get a look for the NCAA's. Also, when was the last time the MAC got an at large bid to the NCAA's or even the NIT? That being said, If we run the table and lost in the MAC tourney I agree we would be in. Nobody's ever gone undefeated in the MAC, but it would be a hell of a ride if we did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skip-zip Posted January 22, 2017 Report Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Zip JD said: My comment was about the MAC being a one bid conference and wasn't directed at the Zips. The MAC as a whole plays a terrible OOC schedule - and seldom beats anyone really good when they do. We are one of the few teams that took on any ranked teams and we do not get much help from the rest of the conference. If Akron wins the tourney at the Q, tell me one other MAC school that would get a look for the NCAA's. Also, when was the last time the MAC got an at large bid to the NCAA's or even the NIT? That being said, If we run the table and lost in the MAC tourney I agree we would be in. Nobody's ever gone undefeated in the MAC, but it would be a hell of a ride if we did. As I said previously, I agree with you on a lot of what you are saying. I just think it's silly to reach a conclusion about the conference getting one bid in mid-January. And let me clarify that you said that the MAC will only get one bid. Now that you say nobody else besides Akron would get at At-Large, I agree with you 100%. There's definitely no other team with a path to a high enough win total. I'm not sure if Akron needs to win every remaining conference game to get in. 28 or 29 might be enough. Nobody knows. We probably know that 26 is not enough because we've been down that road. But the only thing I said is that we're certainly IN with 30. So right now, we have a path to that number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy5 Posted January 22, 2017 Report Share Posted January 22, 2017 Do we even play enough games to get to 30? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAZip Posted January 22, 2017 Report Share Posted January 22, 2017 12 minutes ago, zippy5 said: Do we even play enough games to get to 30? Looks like 30 regular season and 3 possible at the Q. Losing 3 already, they would have to win every remaining game including the championship game. So, without winning it all, they can only get to 29. I think that's right! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wadszip Posted January 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, VAZip said: Looks like 30 regular season and 3 possible at the Q. Losing 3 already, they would have to win every remaining game including the championship game. So, without winning it all, they can only get to 29. I think that's right! If you count the Adrian game, they can conceivably finish the regular season 28-3. With wins in the MAC quarters and semis and a loss in the finals and they would be 30-4. If you only count D1 games, then 29-4 is the best they could do without winning the MAC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wadszip Posted January 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2017 I'll do an update of my numbers probably sometime tomorrow from this weekend. But just glancing, it looks like the MAC now has 5 top 100 wins: Kent (Texas), Akron (Ohio), EMU (Ohio), Ohio (Georgia Tech) and Toledo (Loyola). Eastern just fell out and is at 102 (meaning Akron and Buffalo close to regaining another). In the top 150, as of now, looks like the MAC is down to 11 ... with Akron still holding five of them: Ohio (97), EMU (102), Marshall (121), Georgia Southern (134) and UC-Irvine (135). So now the Zips own 45 percent of the league's top 150 wins. Again, these numbers do not put Akron on the at-large radar at this time, but it still shows how much separation, IMO, Akron has put between itself and the rest of the league. And just by generally knowing how the KenPom rankings work, the YSU game is an anchor this team won't recover from. If the Zips would've won that game, they would probably be ranked somewhere in the 50s, putting them up there with teams like Middle Tennessee and UNC-Wilmington, who both have legit at-large arguments at this time. That loss was probably a 25-spot drop. .. KenPom hammers teams for horrible losses like that way more than RPI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigzipguy Posted January 22, 2017 Report Share Posted January 22, 2017 I certainly respect all the opinions of our posters. I must disagree about 30-4 getting us in. Forget about the RPI. That would not help Akron like it has helped other Mid-Majors who have previous NCAA wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wadszip Posted January 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2017 (edited) 14 minutes ago, bigzipguy said: I certainly respect all the opinions of our posters. I must disagree about 30-4 getting us in. Forget about the RPI. That would not help Akron like it has helped other Mid-Majors who have previous NCAA wins. 30-4 would get an at-large. My thoughts are, it's not even worth thinking about that at this time. The odds of it happening are easily less than 1 percent. Edited January 22, 2017 by wadszip 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skip-zip Posted January 22, 2017 Report Share Posted January 22, 2017 26 minutes ago, wadszip said: 30-4 would get an at-large. My thoughts are, it's not even worth thinking about that at this time. In the words of Mr. Dunn......No Doubt About it. 27 minutes ago, wadszip said: it's not even worth thinking about that at this time. I agree. I can't believe someone posted that it's not possible when we just won won 14 of our last 16 games and already have a #39 RPI. If we lose another game or two in the next month, then I'll agree that's highly unlikely. But that hasn't happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue & Gold Posted January 22, 2017 Report Share Posted January 22, 2017 We've got enough on our plate this week alone, playing @ WMU and then at home against UB. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy5 Posted January 22, 2017 Report Share Posted January 22, 2017 58 minutes ago, Blue & Gold said: We've got enough on our plate this week alone, playing @ WMU and then at home against UB. We're fans on a message board. We're allowed to look ahead and discuss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue & Gold Posted January 22, 2017 Report Share Posted January 22, 2017 (edited) 38 minutes ago, zippy5 said: We're fans on a message board. We're allowed to look ahead and discuss Absolutely! I was just trying to say that I'll be relieved if we win both games this week alone. Edited January 22, 2017 by Blue & Gold 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.