I might have to change my tune about OU being tempted to go to the Sunbelt if possible. I asked Gemini about projected G6 media payouts in 10 years and it says the Sunbelt may be about double that of the MAC per school. The chart doesn't render well when pasted in here but you can see the numbers. And the American gaps much higher:
When breaking down the non-Power 4 ecosystem (historically the "Group of 5", now commonly expanded to "Group of 6" with the reconstituted Pac-12), the financial gap between the top mid-majors and the rest of the group is vast.
Over the next decade (~2036), overall G5/G6 payouts will be shaped primarily by two factors:
The CFP Group Pool: Under the current CFP agreement, all G5/G6 conferences share roughly 9% of total CFP revenue (~$115M–$120M total divided among ~60–65 schools, averaging ~$1.8M–$2.5M per school before performance bonuses).
Media Rights Bargaining Power: Linear networks and streaming partners view only a handful of these leagues as drivers of primary subscription/viewership growth.
Estimated Annual Distributions Per School (~2036)
ConferenceProjected Total Annual Payout (per school)Estimated Base TV Rights FeeKey Growth & Distribution Factors
Pac-12 (Rebuilt)$12M – $18M~$8M – $12MPositioning as the "Best of the Rest" / Tier-5 league. Commands premium TV bids and favorable CFP payout terms.
American Athletic (AAC)$8M – $11M~$5M – $7MRetains a solid brand footprint in major TV markets, though diluted by losing top members.
Mountain West (MWC)$5M – $8M~$3M – $5MStabilized after realignment; strong regional brand presence in the West.
Sun Belt$4M – $6M~$2M – $3.5MRising regional popularity and strong football performance expected to double legacy base media rates.
MAC$2M – $3.5M~$800K – $1.2MStable Midwest footprint; heavily reliant on mid-week "MACtion" linear TV windows.
Conference USA (C-USA)$1.8M – $3.0M~$500K – $1MHeavily restructured with lower base media rights; reliant on CFP base shares and non-conference guarantee games.