Warm Weather Programs

[Dave in Green]

Well-written story with lots of facts. Michigan State's win over Stanford in the Rose Bowl was a big deal for cold weather programs considering the population shift documented in this story.

[GP1]

Good article. Population shift?...I'd go along with that as maybe the top two reasons. The more apples you have in a barrel, the more likely you are to pick out a good one.

The Michigan State vs. Stanford game was unique in that it was like having two mid west schools playing each other. I actually thought it was one of the more entertaining bowl games this year considering how physical the teams played. MSU is a very, very, very good team with lots of talent and an outstanding coach. They know their identity and play to their strengths then let the chips fall where they may. I'd be bored watching them 12 times a year, but it was fun to watch them that day.

The one thing I would say though is looking at the history of the Rose Bowl, which has always been the cold weather vs. warm weather game, even back in the 70s and 80s before the population shift had a great impact, the PACwhatever was having their way most of the time with the Big Ten so while population shift may be a major reason, I think another major reason would be style of play that didn't favor Big Ten teams. The game evolved faster than Big Ten schools were willing to keep up. I'd go as far as to say high school philosophies evolved faster in other parts of the country than the mid west setting many of the college back. Back then, it was running vs. passing. Now, it is spread offense vs. pro offense. This year, it was pro offense vs pro offense and MSU had the better players. Interestingly, until this week and since 2000, the Big Ten has only won two Rose Bowls. tosu won in 2010 and Wisconsin beat Stanford in 2000 (pro style vs pro style).

I think recent evolution of the game favors warm weather schools. While it is the case that mid west schools play spread offenses now, many of the really good mid west QBs are running backs playing QB. Braxton Miller and the guy from NIU come to mind (if I can't think of his name, does he really come to mind?). The QB from Oregon, Arizona State, CFU, etc. are passers who play QB. tosu fans may not like to hear this, but the Urban Meyer style spread offense is in the rear view mirror at this point as it is much less sophisticated. Tim Tebow was a running back who played QB similar to Miller. There is something now antiquated about that style of play. Passing precision and opportunistic running by the QB are key at the forefront of this evolution. The guy in the mid west who really wants to do this at the BCS level is Kelly at ND, but he doesn't have the pieces to do it. At the non BCS level, Bowden wants to do it at Akron.

[Buckzip]

Population shift isn't the only reason.

Coaching is a big part of the reason.

Look at all of the recruits that are leaving the Midwest and going to southern schools.

it used to be that student athletes that were elite but not quite MI, OSU, ND would go to the other B10 schools or somewhere Midwest. Now they are heading south.

Kids that used to go to the second tier of the B10 are now headed to the second tier of the SEC. Kentucky is cleaning up the Ohio leftovers that used to be taken by Purdue, Indiana, Minny, etc.

The SEC pays their coaches and assistant coaches quite a bit more than the B10 does. They want excellence and will pay for it.

The B10 doesn't pay for their coaches and you see the results. If you are a good coach at Purdue, Ill, Iowa, Wisci, etc you will be paid more to go south or west.

A power like MI brings in a career 500 coach..Puhleese.

Weather probably plays a small part. However, if you listen to recruiting analysts, they say it is a very small part.

Most of these guys going to the big time programs want to play in the NFL and know they will be playing in cold weather. They can't be afraid of it.

If it meant that much, Hawaii would be a power, as would NC and UCLA and San Diego State, etc.

[GP1]

Kids that used to go to the second tier of the B10 are now headed to the second tier of the SEC. Kentucky is cleaning up the Ohio leftovers that used to be taken by Purdue, Indiana, Minny, etc.

A lot of them also are now ending up at southern ACC schools and I understand why. Kentucky is a dead end and I'm not sure why anyone would want to play football there. I'm surprised by the number of northern kids in game day programs who are from the north at Wake games. Winters in Chapel Hill, Durham, Raleigh, UVA and Atlanta are a lot nicer than W. Lafayette, Bloomington, Madison, Chicago, East Lansing, St. Paul or Iowa City. If you are a skill position guy, can you show off your skills better in warm weather where the fall/winter comes later, or northern schools?

Being warm is a lot better than being cold. Some, but not many players who go from the south to the north to play are the cream of the crop. I believe if a southern ACC school does their recruiting right and is selective, they can forego a southern kid for a better quality northern kid and attract the kid to the lifestyle and opportunity to show off his skills better in the south. There are some very good northern kids who never get to show off their talents because they play in poor weather a lot of the time. There is a kid from my high school playing at Purdue. In about the same amount of time it takes him to drive from home to W. Lafayette, he could drive to Raleigh, Chapel Hill, Durham, Winston-Salem (he was a good student and could have handled Duke or Wake Forest) or UVA. The football opportunity would have been the same. I shake my head a the idea of him rotting away for four years there playing for a coach who may not make it four years.

[Zips Win!]

I shake my head a the idea of him rotting away for four years there playing for a coach who may not make it four years.

Agree. What a waste of what some are saying is the second best football player ever at that school and the best all-around athlete ever.

[Dr Z]

Being warm is a lot better than being cold. Some, but not many players who go from the south to the north to play are the cream of the crop.

Take the top two receivers (most receptions) in the NFL this year, both from Florida, both played for small schools, one in Ohio, one in Michigan. You can extend it to top four and include one from California who played in Ohio also. Two out of those four played in the MAC. All three (and top four) of those STILL play for cold weather teams...and led the league. PS When you look up who led the league in receptions, you are going to be surprised.

[GP1]

Take the top two receivers (most receptions) in the NFL this year, both from Florida, both played for small schools, one in Ohio, one in Michigan. You can extend it to top four and include one from California. Two out of four played in the MAC. All three (and top four) of those STILL play for cold weather teams...and led the league. PS When you look up who led the league in receptions, you are going to be surprised.

Interesting stats. Let's look at the two that really matter though because it isn't about how many you catch, but what you do with your catches. Leading the league in catches is like leading the league in rushing attempts. If you rush the ball for 300 times and only get 600 yards, then what was the point in carrying the ball?

Receiving yards by WR in order are Gordon (Baylor), Brown (Central Michigan), Johnson (Ga. Tech), Thomas (Ga Tech) and Green (Georgia).

The one that really matters...TDs by WR: Thomas (GA Tech), Bryant (Ok State not sure if cold weather or warm weather, but certainly warmer weather for most of the year than the mid west), Marshall (Central Florida) and Eric Decker (Minnesota).

I believe the TE for New Orleans from Univ. of Miami (fl) lead the league in receptions for TD, but TE isn't always considered a skill position like WR is even though it should at this point.

[UAZipster0305]

Interesting stats. Let's look at the two that really matter though because it isn't about how many you catch, but what you do with your catches. Leading the league in catches is like leading the league in rushing attempts. If you rush the ball for 300 times and only get 600 yards, then what was the point in carrying the ball?

Receiving yards by WR in order are Gordon (Baylor), Brown (Central Michigan), Johnson (Ga. Tech), Thomas (Ga Tech) and Green (Georgia).

The one that really matters...TDs by WR: Thomas (GA Tech), Bryant (Ok State not sure if cold weather or warm weather, but certainly warmer weather for most of the year than the mid west), Marshall (Central Florida) and Eric Decker (Minnesota).

I believe the TE for New Orleans from Univ. of Miami (fl) lead the league in receptions for TD, but TE isn't always considered a skill position like WR is even though it should at this point.

I think it depends on the play calling. In the B10 I would say not because the TE is more of a glorified lineman who occasionally catches the ball. If I am a TE, I want to go to the PAC10 or SEC to show off my receiving AND downfield blocking skills.

[zippy5]

I'm not sure why we're only comparing WRs, but even so.. Jimmy Graham didn't even play football until his senior year, he was a b-ball player so I'm not sure he's really relevant to this debate.

[Blue & Gold]

Good article. Population shift?...I'd go along with that as maybe the top two reasons. The more apples you have in a barrel, the more likely you are to pick out a good one.

The Michigan State vs. Stanford game was unique in that it was like having two mid west schools playing each other. I actually thought it was one of the more entertaining bowl games this year considering how physical the teams played. MSU is a very, very, very good team with lots of talent and an outstanding coach. They know their identity and play to their strengths then let the chips fall where they may. I'd be bored watching them 12 times a year, but it was fun to watch them that day.

The one thing I would say though is looking at the history of the Rose Bowl, which has always been the cold weather vs. warm weather game, even back in the 70s and 80s before the population shift had a great impact, the PACwhatever was having their way most of the time with the Big Ten so while population shift may be a major reason, I think another major reason would be style of play that didn't favor Big Ten teams. The game evolved faster than Big Ten schools were willing to keep up. I'd go as far as to say high school philosophies evolved faster in other parts of the country than the mid west setting many of the college back. Back then, it was running vs. passing. Now, it is spread offense vs. pro offense. This year, it was pro offense vs pro offense and MSU had the better players. Interestingly, until this week and since 2000, the Big Ten has only won two Rose Bowls. tosu won in 2010 and Wisconsin beat Stanford in 2000 (pro style vs pro style).

I think recent evolution of the game favors warm weather schools. While it is the case that mid west schools play spread offenses now, many of the really good mid west QBs are running backs playing QB. Braxton Miller and the guy from NIU come to mind (if I can't think of his name, does he really come to mind?). The QB from Oregon, Arizona State, CFU, etc. are passers who play QB. tosu fans may not like to hear this, but the Urban Meyer style spread offense is in the rear view mirror at this point as it is much less sophisticated. Tim Tebow was a running back who played QB similar to Miller. There is something now antiquated about that style of play. Passing precision and opportunistic running by the QB are key at the forefront of this evolution. The guy in the mid west who really wants to do this at the BCS level is Kelly at ND, but he doesn't have the pieces to do it. At the non BCS level, Bowden wants to do it at Akron.

I used to think it had a something to do with the Big Ten school feeling like they were on vacation during the Rose Bowl whereas the PAC-10 school was carrying on business as usual. Thoughts?

[GP1]

I used to think it had a something to do with the Big Ten school feeling like they were on vacation during the Rose Bowl whereas the PAC-10 school was carrying on business as usual. Thoughts?

Respectfully disagree. College football players are extremely competitive. One doesn't make it to that level without having the desire to compete at a high level. Further, nobody wants to get embarrassed on national TV, on New Years Day, in front of the entire country with only the Rose Bowl on TV. Back then, there were very few television stations and the Rose Bowl was basically the only thing to watch. Heck, there weren't even nearly as many bowls back then as there are today so making one was a big deal. Today, it's an excuse for most teams to extend spring practice into the fall and winter.

Lots of bowls are taken lightly, but some are highly important to schools and conferences so they have to be taken extremely seriously. The Rose Bowl is/was one of those bowls. I don't see how a kid from Washington/Oregon/Arizona takes a few days in LA more seriously than a kid from Ohio/Michigan/Wisconsin.

[LZIp]

GP1- are you from St. C?

[Zipmeister]

2013-14 Bowl Results:

Big 10 2-5

MAC 0-5

Go cold weather programs

[Balsy]

MAC 0-5

[zippy5]

2013-14 Bowl Results:

Big 10 2-5

MAC 0-5

Go cold weather programs

It's hard to judge bowl records, some conferences have easier skeds than others. For instance I don't like the Big 10, but I will say they have a pretty good bowl lineup.. ie. they play some really good teams. However the MAC at 0-5 is pitiful, they lost to Ark St, SDSU, Pitt, Utah St & ECU. Pitt and ECU are really the only somewhat decent programs, not a good bowl season at all for the MAC.

[Buckzip]

2013-14 Bowl Results:

Big 10 2-5

MAC 0-5

Go cold weather programs

Made me laugh.

[GP1]

not a good bowl season at all for the MAC.

Can't disagree. I don't put a lot of weight in bowl results for the most part, but a conference can't get skunked. That's the bad news....

....the good news is outside of the teams playing in these games, nobody really cares and the results won't impact the MAC one way or another. Next year, the MAC will have five bowl teams regardless of the outcomes this year.

As MAC fans, we shouldn't let the results of five games detract too much from what was a good season of quality football for the conference. The MAC has a lot of quality teams right now that can compete well and are entertaining. The Zips have reached that point and showed it in their win over Toledo.

I would go as far as to say a Bowden lead Zips team in the MACC/going to a bowl next year might be one of the more interesting story lines going into 2014. The leadership of the Conference would be smart to do everything in their power to help that along.

[Captain Kangaroo]

As MAC fans, we shouldn't let the results of five games detract too much from what was a good season of quality football for the conference. The MAC has a lot of quality teams right now that can compete well and are entertaining.

I agree. But how can the MAC upper-echelon still be so bad in comparison to the so-so teams they faced in bowl competition?

Is a great MAC program still a bottom-feeder in the big picture of D1-A football...can't beat the weakest BCS bowl-level programs, nor the upper-echelon non-BCS teams?

Why is there no really great MAC football team? Miami and Marshall of the early 2000's were legitimately great. Now our MAC football "flagship" NIU looks a lot like the Zips men's basketball team. Whips the cupcakes...gets wins against BCS bottom-feeders...but fails against mid/low level BCS programs.

As good as MAC football quality-of-play was this season, why no "legit" Top 25 teams?

Has the MAC simply improved from horrible, to "almost competitive"? Is the MAC as a whole, in the midst of Bowden's "Lose big, lose by a little, win by a little, win big" process?

Is the NCAA happy that they can parade out MAC programs as the Washington Generals during bowl season, and get the remainder of college football some feel-good, season-ending wins?

0-5 begs the questions.

[UAZipster0305]

2013-14 Bowl Results:

Big 10 2-5

MAC 0-5

Go cold weather programs

If we only had two more bowl bids, our bowl record would be as good as that of the B10.

[GP1]

As good as MAC football quality-of-play was this season, why no "legit" Top 25 teams?

All good questions. I'd like to focus on this one though because all of the other questions lead to this one. WARNING: THE REMAINDER OF THIS POST MAY CONTAIN SOME OPINION THAT OTHERS FIND OFFENSIVE.

The basic theme of this post is, there is a difference between quality football and top notch D1A talent...then I'll drift off to other things like I always do. Quality football is an opinion. I think MAC football was quality this year, but that doesn't make me right. Top notch talent can be viewed, measured and put to use better to win games easier than teams lacking talent.

First, for all of us there are millions of things we don't know. One of those things for me is the nature of what a Top 25 team is. Since there are so many D1A teams and most never come close to playing each other, we don't really know what it means to be a Top 25 team. All any of us are left with is to gauge our opinions based upon what we see. When we go to a game, what do we see?...Running, jumping, catching, throwing, blocking, tackling, play calling and player size/physical conditioning to name a few. Much of this visible ability is dependent upon who they are running, jumping, catching, throwing, blocking,tackling, etc. against.

As I see it, there aren't enough kids being produced in the midwest to impact the running, jumping, etc. part of what we see to put the MAC schools in a favorable position against some of the mid level BCS schools. Schools can pay coaches more, scheme better, etc., but that is all secondary to the base athletic ability necessary to play the game and there aren't enough kids good enough at football being produced in MAC states to move the league up, or even a team up. For crying out loud, many Big Ten teams are going fishing for the leftovers from the south and still aren't worth a crap. tosu was much less talented than Clemson and over the course of the game it showed. Clemson didn't even make their conference championship game.

The difference between the base athletic ability of Pitt vs BG was not overwhelming, but it was just enough at every position, especially at WR, that it made Pitt better than BG over 60 minutes.

Talent wins games and makes conferences great. Michigan State had better talent than Stanford/tosu and they won. Go down the list of bowl games and almost every time, the team with the better talent wins. Take the names off of their jerseys, UCF had better talent than Baylor. MAC states aren't producing enough talent for their teams to win these types of games. Spare me the scouts.com rankings, I know what I see and what I see is a lack of talent when they get to the college level and actually on a college field.

"For the altering eye alters all." - William Blake. How many people watch a team like tosu play and over the course of a 12 game season convince themselves they are a national championship contender because they see them dominate the teams they play? One could say the same thing about Baylor. If a fan only goes to MAC games and watches tosu on TV, they see everything else through that prism. Even when they watch better teams play, they can rationalize what they are seeing to fit what they are used to seeing. People can create their own reality about certain things. All of the sudden, a team like tosu is on the field with a Clemson and their players are bigger and more physically developed and the tosu fans are shocked to see it. It was there all along, they just didn't want to see it. There was nothing different about tosu Friday as there was in October. They just were playing against better players.

William Blake's saying could also apply to MAC fans. How many MAC fans watched Lynch play and said, "That gritty qb could make that team win against any Top 25 team." Probably a lot. At the end of the day, BG had better talent than NIU. Also, NIU played a more talented team in their bowl game.

One last thing. Time make us remember things differently. Miami and Marshall were great MAC teams, but did either of them ever beat a BCS level team with Roethlisberger, Pennington or Leftwich? I'm too lazy to look, but I don't think they did. I think in a few years, we will look back at NIU in the same manner as we did those Miami and Marshall teams. Lynch was a great MAC QB, but did it differently and in a way that won't land him in the NFL.

[Balsy]

Long post GP1 so I won't quote it, but I think it put a lot of things into perspective.

I guess the only question I throw out there for everyone is: what are we looking for to be happy? And, what type of balance does the MAC need to find between Scheme and Talent in order to achieve those goals.

Some say I'm short sided by saying this: But I'm perfectly happy being a MAC C contender with a bowl bid. One of the most important things that schools need to learn is to live within their means, and to understand their market. We will never be a BCS competitor because it's not in the cards...it will never be in the cards. I do believe we have the coach who can achieve those goals that I want to see. The only other thing I would want to see is a full stadium, seeing 27,000 people having a goodtime at an Akron game. Though I'm not sure that one I achievable

[GP1]

what are we looking for to be happy?

One of the most important things that schools need to learn is to live within their means, and to understand their market.

Good post Balsy.

The one thing about many MAC fans is they are never happy because most don't understand their market. I'm cool with that because sports can be a form of fantasy for people and there is nothing wrong with a little fantasy. The problem is when they start to live outside of their means in order to become part of a market they cannot ever realistically participate.

Long ago, I came to grips with what Akron can and can't do. Would it be great to play in the D1A national championship game? Of course. Is that realistic? Of course not. We can't manage our athletic department to make the national championship game. We can manage it to compete well in the MAC, win more than we lose, make the MACC once every four years minimum and win half the bowl games we play in. It's no national championship, but it can be a pretty fun ride. It's also a better ride than many BCS level teams take.

[GP1]

Is the NCAA happy that they can parade out MAC programs as the Washington Generals during bowl season, and get the remainder of college football some feel-good, season-ending wins?

Just a quick clarification and I hate to defend the NCAA, but.... It is true that the NCAA can dish out a punishment saying a team cannot participate in a bowl. The bowls get to decide who they invite to play. Same as the BCS. The BCS Championship is just that, a championship that the BCS, an outside organization of the NCAA, organizes. Ever notice, they give out a crystal ball in lieu of the standard NCAA wooden trophy?