Plain Dealer poll

[Dave in Green]

@Big Zip, you make a lot of good points about teams in stronger conferences having weaker OOC schedules and teams in weaker conferences needing to have stronger OOC schedules to raise their SOS and RPI, if only for the benefit of the NCAA selection committee. The Zips made a good effort to raise their OOC SOS this season. RPI Forecast currently ranks Akron's OOC SOS at #70, and projects that it will be #54 at the end of the regular season. This is up from previous seasons, and a good move forward. But it doesn't tell the whole story.

Considering the Zips took Oklahoma State into overtime on a neutral court without 2/3rds of its starting front line (Tree and Nick, the 1st and 3rd leading rebounders and 2nd and 4th leading scorers), it's not unreasonable to speculate that at full strength they would have been able to pull off the upset and advance to facing Tennessee instead of NC-Asheville. It's also reasonable to speculate that if the Zips at full strength could knock off Oklahoma State, they would have also had a reasonable chance to beat Tennessee and advance to playing North Carolina State instead of Penn State. This would have resulted in an even higher OOC SOS -- likely well into the top 50 in the country. I think we all agree that the Zips need a strong top 50 OOC SOS every season in order to take the next step up.

The loss to Coastal Carolina will be seen as bad even though Tree and Nick were missing, Rico was at the start of a weeks-long recovery from a serious high ankle sprain, Chauncey was playing on an injured knee that would require surgery, and the Zips were playing true freshmen long minutes in their first ever D-I games. The loss to Detroit was certainly a missed opportunity. But it would not be seen by the selection committee as a "bad loss" because the Titans are a top 100 team (currently #63 RPI), and it was a road game. It was a lost opportunity at getting a quality win on the road, which the selection committee really likes. As far as scheduling teams like Duke and Kansas, they generally avoid tough and feisty mid-majors lacking nationally recognized credentials. They get their SOS and RPI from their conferences and from OOC games against teams with national reputations. The Zips are getting there, but haven't quite arrived.

So I think when we look at all these finer details, it's fair to say that the Zips basketball program continues to improve in almost every area where it's been criticized in the past. As long as the program keeps moving forward, that's all I can ask for. There may be setbacks along the way, but the overall trend is definitely up.

[mes102]

So I think when we look at all these finer details, it's fair to say that the Zips basketball program continues to improve in almost every area where it's been criticized in the past. As long as the program keeps moving forward, that's all I can ask for. There may be setbacks along the way, but the overall trend is definitely up.

+1

[Big Zip]

DiG you're absolutely correct our schedule could have been better but the opportune word is "could". Other teams have injuries and deal with them so we need to really not complain about injuries and the fact that we were never told if someone lost there job over the Harney/Tree debacle at the beginning of the year is a travesty. If we hire and continue to employ people whose mistakes make things harder for us we are doing a disservice to our student athletes and showing them there is no consequence for failure.

I know we've talked about scheduling plenty on here and for the most part the schedule is getting better. I really want to see this team continue to schedule perennial winners. I'd like to see some marquee games on the schedule annually. Additionally, I just don't understand how other schools get big schools to come to their place -- BGSU hosted Michigan State, EMU hosted Purdue, Buffalo hosted Temple yet the best we've been able to get here is who?

[mes102]

DiG you're absolutely correct our schedule could have been better but the opportune word is "could". Other teams have injuries and deal with them so we need to really not complain about injuries and the fact that we were never told if someone lost there job over the Harney/Tree debacle at the beginning of the year is a travesty. If we hire and continue to employ people whose mistakes make things harder for us we are doing a disservice to our student athletes and showing them there is no consequence for failure.

I know we've talked about scheduling plenty on here and for the most part the schedule is getting better. I really want to see this team continue to schedule perennial winners. I'd like to see some marquee games on the schedule annually. Additionally, I just don't understand how other schools get big schools to come to their place -- BGSU hosted Michigan State, EMU hosted Purdue, Buffalo hosted Temple yet the best we've been able to get here is who?

Look at those three MAC schools you mentioned and tell me how big of a threat they are to the Big Ten schools or any big time program? THAT is why they were able to host those schools. Akron is too big of a threat to play at Akron. It's a lose-lose situation for them...

[Dave in Green]

If everyone was fired for making a mistake, we'd all be unemployed.

[Dr Z]

...but the overall trend is definitely up.

When the program does something we haven't done before, I will consider it progress. Win a NCAA tournament game (that is the teams goal this season). Deep run in the NIT, beat a named team on the road, win a game that we are 5+ point underdogs. Our depth has improved yes, but I'm ready for some results. The proof of the pudding is in the eating, the rest is just marketing fluff. I'm hesitant to get super excited (although it's hard not to), when mac basketball this year is pretty weak. Back to the topic, if Akron can somehow upset Columbus in the tournament, Joe Akron would have to take notice. I think that would be a program changing win. Odds are a million to one at the end of February, but it's fun to dream once in awhile.

[MontrealExposloveZippy]

When the program does something we haven't done before, I will consider it progress. Win a NCAA tournament game (that is the teams goal this season). Deep run in the NIT, beat a named team on the road, win a game that we are 5+ point underdogs. Our depth has improved yes, but I'm ready for some results. The proof of the pudding is in the eating, the rest is just marketing fluff. I'm hesitant to get super excited (although it's hard not to), when mac basketball this year is pretty weak. Back to the topic, if Akron can somehow upset Columbus in the tournament, Joe Akron would have to take notice. I think that would be a program changing win. Odds are a million to one at the end of February, but it's fun to dream once in awhile.

Totally agree, we have had some big wins, no doubt about it. But, until we win in the Tourney or make it to the Final Four or something in the NIT we will continue to go somewhat unnoticed.

[skip-zip]

DiG you're absolutely correct our schedule could have been better but the opportune word is "could".

I know we've talked about scheduling plenty on here and for the most part the schedule is getting better. I really want to see this team continue to schedule perennial winners. I'd like to see some marquee games on the schedule annually. Additionally, I just don't understand how other schools get big schools to come to their place -- BGSU hosted Michigan State, EMU hosted Purdue, Buffalo hosted Temple yet the best we've been able to get here is who?

Good point.

It's really simple. We need to beat schools that matter. And in order to do that, you have to have opportunities to beat those teams by putting more of them on your schedule.

[MontrealExposloveZippy]

Good point.

It's really simple. We need to beat schools that matter. And in order to do that, you have to have opportunities to beat those teams by putting more of them on your schedule.

We have nothing to be afraid of anymore. We may lose a couple more games to strong teams, but we WILL also beat our fair share of them too. Just like we should have beat Ok St and were competitive with Dayton last year @ Dayton.

[MDZip]

Back to the topic, if Akron can somehow upset Columbus in the tournament, Joe Akron would have to take notice. I think that would be a program changing win. Odds are a million to one at the end of February, but it's fun to dream once in awhile.

I don't think it is an unlikely as you think. Barring a complete collapse OSU is going to make the tournament somewhere bewteen a 3 and a 6 seed. The Zips, assuming they win the MAC tournament, would be somewhere bewteen an 11 and 14 seed. Those would line up perfectly in terms of playing positions. With four regions that would be 16 possible positions for each team. So the Zips would have a 1 in 256 chance of playing the Buckeyes in the first round. So those aren't great odds but is possible.

[MontrealExposloveZippy]

And we have stuck around with Gonzaga / Notre Dame in the tourney (if only we would have had Zeke's high FG PCT in that ND game.. we would have won)

[Hilltopper]

Additionally, I just don't understand how other schools get big schools to come to their place -- BGSU hosted Michigan State, EMU hosted Purdue, Buffalo hosted Temple yet the best we've been able to get here is who?

Because they knew that there was zero chance of losing to BGSU, EMU, or UB. None of those teams would dream of playing UA at the JAR. They would likely lose to the Zips.

[K92]

Because they knew that there was zero chance of losing to BGSU, EMU, or UB. None of those teams would dream of playing UA at the JAR. They would likely lose to the Zips.

EMU beat Purdue, so even stone cold locks can backfire on you.

[RowdyZip]

We hosted Temple a couple years back. I believe it was part of the deal being football-only. I'm sticking to the notion that there is zero chance of Akron (or OU for that matter) getting a 1st round matchup with OSU. The Buckeyes have too much clout in athletics and too much to lose by facing an in-state school with the talent to potentially beat them. Hell, I'd be shocked if the MAC team was on the same side of the bracket.

[MontrealExposloveZippy]

Because they knew that there was zero chance of losing to BGSU, EMU, or UB. None of those teams would dream of playing UA at the JAR. They would likely lose to the Zips.

In 2003 Cleveland State hosted North Carolina and I remember it being a HUGE deal

(2nd largest crownd in their history, 11,000) I think CSU only lost by 4. It would have been chaos if CSU would have won

[Dave in Green]

@Big Zip, I recently spent some time talking basketball with a nice gentleman named Marc Smith, who is the newly appointed academic coordinator for mens basketball and track at UA. He was previously head coach at Millikin, and is a pretty savvy guy. After talking with him for awhile, I'm confident that the Zips are in good hands when it comes to academic compliance.

[MDZip]

EMU beat Purdue, so even stone cold locks can backfire on you.

I would suspect with EMU's style of play, several Purdue players likely fell alseep during the game which probably aided EMU's win.

[Hilltopper]

EMU beat Purdue, so even stone cold locks can backfire on you.

Purdue sucks anyways. Their current RPI is 126. Beating them would have done nothing for our RPI.

[BirdZip]

I don't think it is an unlikely as you think. Barring a complete collapse OSU is going to make the tournament somewhere bewteen a 3 and a 6 seed. The Zips, assuming they win the MAC tournament, would be somewhere bewteen an 11 and 14 seed. Those would line up perfectly in terms of playing positions. With four regions that would be 16 possible positions for each team. So the Zips would have a 1 in 256 chance of playing the Buckeyes in the first round. So those aren't great odds but is possible.

I'm going to channel my inner DIG here...

In the scenario you describe, I would put the odds at 1 in 16 of the Zips meeting OSU. 1 in 256 would be the odds for a particular seeding matchup at a particular location. If OSU is a 3-6 and UA is an 11-14, there are 16 possible combinations where the Zips would be playing OSU. That's 16 in 256 or 1 in 16.

The other way to look at it is that wherever OSU is slotted, there are 16 different slots where UA could be put, and 1 of those would be against OSU. Again, 1 in 16.

I for one don't think UA will get an 11 seed. 12 is likely tops. If we had made our run with 20-point blowouts, that might be a different story, but not only are our oppoennts not impressive, the manner in which we're beating them isn't impressive either. The sad part is, we're good enough to be inflicting blowouts, but for the most part, we aren't doing it.

[Dave in Green]

Purdue sucks anyways. Their current RPI is 126. Beating them would have done nothing for our RPI.

It's not just Purdue's RPI that counts. The Zips would also get a share of Big Ten RPI love:

RPI = (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.50) + (OOWP * 0.25) where WP is Winning Percentage, OWP is Opponents' Winning Percentage and OOWP is Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage

If you consider that each conference ends up with a .500 won-lost record within conference play, then what really counts is playing an opponent from a conference that has a great OOC winning percentage. The way to game that system is to schedule a beatable team from a conference with a great OOC winning percentage, and beat them on the road. That way you capture a nice piece of that conference's OOWP. The top 5 conference won-lost OOC records this season are:

1. Big East (151-34)

2. Big Ten (121-31)

3. Mountain West (87-26)

4. Atlantic Coast (114-37)

5. Big 12 (88-32)

[Dave in Green]

@BirdZip, one thing to consider is that a better seed is not always better. Sometimes a worse seed will put you up against a team that you match up better against. Having said that, I still think there's an outside shot at a #11 seed if the Zips run the table including the MAC conference championship game. Should we be good enough to enter the NCAA tournament on a 24-game winning streak with 3 wins over sweet 16 darling OU, including on the road and at a neutral site, I believe the selection committe would look favorably on the Zips' 3-month undefeated body of work from Dec. 18, 2012 through March 16, 2013. Again, we're talking long shots, but it's possible. The only way to do it is take it one game at a time, which the Zips players are doing a good job of staying focused on right now.

[Dave in Green]

When the program does something we haven't done before, I will consider it progress. Win a NCAA tournament game (that is the teams goal this season). Deep run in the NIT, beat a named team on the road, win a game that we are 5+ point underdogs. Our depth has improved yes, but I'm ready for some results. The proof of the pudding is in the eating, the rest is just marketing fluff. I'm hesitant to get super excited (although it's hard not to), when mac basketball this year is pretty weak. Back to the topic, if Akron can somehow upset Columbus in the tournament, Joe Akron would have to take notice. I think that would be a program changing win. Odds are a million to one at the end of February, but it's fun to dream once in awhile.

I keep re-reading this post looking for some acknowledgement of the 17-game winning streak, the votes in the AP and Coaches polls, the inclusion on bubble watches. But it appears that there's not a shred of recognition that the Zips are showing any sign of progress, which is really nothing more than movement toward a goal. Really, it's OK for even the worst pessimists to acknowledge signs of progress without surrendering their fundamental belief that it's all going to fall apart in the end.

[skip-zip]

I don't think it is an unlikely as you think. Barring a complete collapse OSU is going to make the tournament somewhere bewteen a 3 and a 6 seed. The Zips, assuming they win the MAC tournament, would be somewhere bewteen an 11 and 14 seed. Those would line up perfectly in terms of playing positions. With four regions that would be 16 possible positions for each team. So the Zips would have a 1 in 256 chance of playing the Buckeyes in the first round. So those aren't great odds but is possible.

After what has transpired with OSWho the last couple of weeks, they are dropping quickly, and will be very fortunate now to be in a 3 or 4 spot. So, it seems very unlikely now that we'd get a matchup with them.

[MontrealExposloveZippy]

Look where ESPN has us and who we could possibly play in the 2nd round--

Jus' some stoopid Bracketology

[Dave in Green]

Now, let's take a look at this from the tOSU perspective, as expressed by Matt Brown on SBNation. Brown takes a look at likely tOSU first round opponents and ranks them by "fear factor," which he rates in terms of "panics." Louisiana Tech is 1 panics, Valparaiso is 1.5 panics, Middle Tennessee is 1.5 panics, Belmont is 3.5 panics, Tennessee is 2.5 panics, Villanova is 2 panics, and finally:

Akron (24-5, 14-1 MAC)

Best Win: 82-77 against MTSU 82-77 (RPI 23)

Worst Loss: 74-70 @ Coastal Carolina (RPI 268)

Best Player: Gotta go with 7 footer Zeke Marshall, who puts up 12.9 points and 6.9 rebounds while blocking 3.6 shots a game and redirecting countless others. 6-7 Demetrius Treadwell is no slouch either.

The Skinny: I am terrified of Akron. They blew out Penn State and took a very good Oklahoma State team to overtime, swept a good Ohio squad and have been very good at being consistent in the MAC. They have something that most mid-majors don't have, strong size, with a shotblocker that would start for almost everybody in the Big Ten, and guards who can hit open three pointers. I think Akron has a great shot to win a game, maybe more in the NCAAs, and I don't want them to have anything to do with Ohio State.

FEAR FACTOR: 5 OUT OF 5 PANICS. Pray we avoid Akron. Zeke Marshall has Amir Williams in foul trouble ALREADY.

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