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MAC Tournament Seedings

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23 minutes ago, akronzips71 said:

Where is Dave in Green when you need him???

 

The way I read it, if we win 3 out of the remaining 5 games, only BG could top us.

Buffalo and NIU could tie (at 13 wins), but can not get to 14.

This does not take the head to head into account, and that might eliminate one or two of them.

If we win 4, we own #1 or #2, depending on what BG does.

A 20-6 team SHOULD be able to win 3 out of the last 5.

 

a few years back, there was a MAC tournament simulator floating around the internet.  You could plug in all of the different results and it would spout out all the seedings.  Can't find it this year.

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35 minutes ago, akronzips71 said:

Where is Dave in Green when you need him???

 

The way I read it, if we win 3 out of the remaining 5 games, only BG could top us.

Buffalo and NIU could tie (at 13 wins), but can not get to 14.

This does not take the head to head into account, and that might eliminate one or two of them.

If we win 4, we own #1 or #2, depending on what BG does.

A 20-6 team SHOULD be able to win 3 out of the last 5.

 

We own the tie-breaker over NIU, CMU, and Ball State. The magic number to stay ahead of the later 2 is 2. Kent and Buffalo currently have the tie-breaker over us, but we have a chance to even the season series. 

 

It would take a complete meltdown for us to not get a top 4 seed at this point. If we go 4-1 with one of those 4 wins being @BGSU, we win the #1 seed. A 3-2 finish would require some help.

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3-2 gets us #2 probably. There are two teams that could tie at 13 wins, but it depends on who beats who.

It can also get us #1, depending on what BG does. I simply don't have the head to do the math of who beats who.

 

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8 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

We own the tie-breaker over NIU, CMU, and Ball State. The magic number to stay ahead of the later 2 is 2. Kent and Buffalo currently have the tie-breaker over us, but we have a chance to even the season series. 

 

It would take a complete meltdown for us to not get a top 4 seed at this point. If we go 4-1 with one of those 4 wins being @BGSU, we win the #1 seed. A 3-2 finish would require some help.

Kent is out if we win 3. Their best finish is 12 wins.

Buffalo and NIU can win out and get to 13, but not if they play each other (have to look!).

 

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NIU is actually the wild card in all this.

Only one of their remaining five opponents have a winning record in the MAC.

And of course none of them are in contention.

They could run the table and get to 13 wins.

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5 minutes ago, akronzips71 said:

Kent is out if we win 3. Their best finish is 12 wins.

Buffalo and NIU can win out and get to 13, but not if they play each other (have to look!).

 

The only cross division game left is CMU-Miami and that's because that game got postponed. Each team plays the other 5 teams in their division these last 5 games. Realistically Akron is going to finish with a top 2 seed. I'm greedy and want #1. 

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10 hours ago, NWAkron said:

a few years back, there was a MAC tournament simulator floating around the internet.  You could plug in all of the different results and it would spout out all the seedings.  Can't find it this year.

Yep sadly that site (http://playoffsimulator.com/ncaambb/mac) is not working anymore, but I did find a new one that seems to work. And this site just gives odds but is pretty bullish on the Zips chances right now. If all of the favored teams win out from here on out the bracket would look like this. Not too bad for the Zips.

 

 

MACTRMNT.png

Edited by MDZip
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18 minutes ago, MDZip said:

Yep sadly that site (http://playoffsimulator.com/ncaambb/mac) is not working anymore, but I did find a new one that seems to work. And this site just gives odds but is pretty bullish on the Zips chances right now. If all of the favored teams win out from here on out the bracket would look like this. Not too bad for the Zips.

 

 

MACTRMNT.png

@MDzip.  You are awesome.  Wow. Hypothetically, I like the look of that #2 seed.  The top bracket is a killing field.

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2 hours ago, zippy5 said:

I'd like to see a regular season championship and the 1 seed but that bottom bracket looks quite cupcake-y.

Should we lose to BG and end up tied in overall MAC standings, does the NIT auto bid follow the MAC tie breakers? 

 

Also, my fear of facing rankings:

Buffalo - have had our number the last couple years. Still a lot of talent there.

EMU - ugly basketball.  Anyone's game.

OU - Have some talent, not enough.  Boals will have them good soon.

Toledo - Have had our number lately.  At the JAR, baskets looked like hula hoops to them.
Kent - Rivalry

CMU - A lot of offense.  Our stellar D from last year has to show up.

BG - With the last decade of history, I just expect us to win when we play them

NIU - No problems away from that godawful court of theirs

Ball State - Similar to BG, I just expect us to win

Miami - have had a couple of outlier good games

Western - Hawk's team is mediocre this year

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1 hour ago, RowdyZip said:

does the NIT auto bid follow the MAC tie breakers? 

 

Is there such a thing as an NIT Autobid?  I wasn't aware that was the case....

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3 minutes ago, ZipsVoice said:

Is there such a thing as an NIT Autobid?  I wasn't aware that was the case....

Yes, any team that wins their regular season conference title, but doesn't make the tournament gets an auto-bid to the NIT. The change came in 2017.

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1 hour ago, RowdyZip said:

Should we lose to BG and end up tied in overall MAC standings, does the NIT auto bid follow the MAC tie breakers? 

 

Also, my fear of facing rankings:

Buffalo - have had our number the last couple years. Still a lot of talent there.

EMU - ugly basketball.  Anyone's game.

OU - Have some talent, not enough.  Boals will have them good soon.

Toledo - Have had our number lately.  At the JAR, baskets looked like hula hoops to them.
Kent - Rivalry

CMU - A lot of offense.  Our stellar D from last year has to show up.

BG - With the last decade of history, I just expect us to win when we play them

NIU - No problems away from that godawful court of theirs

Ball State - Similar to BG, I just expect us to win

Miami - have had a couple of outlier good games

Western - Hawk's team is mediocre this year

Nailed it.

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Buffalo is probably the team that scares me the most. I feel they just match up really well against the Zips. We have absolutely no bigs with the size, speed, strength combination to match up against M'Balla. There are other teams that could beat Akron in a 1 game format, but none of them in particular scare me like Buffalo. 

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6 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

Yes, any team that wins their regular season conference title, but doesn't make the tournament gets an auto-bid to the NIT. The change came in 2017.

I was really surprised that this rule change was not made until 2017.  I remember the 2006-2007 Akron team that won 27 games and lost in the MAC finals on a 35 foot bank shot.  I watched the NIT selection show to see who Akron would play and they showed a clip of the Akron team and then did not select them for the NIT.  Akron had a great team that was left out of the post season.  I read that ESPN had the nit pick large conference teams in order to boost tv ratings and that was why Akron was not selected.  It made national news that we got screwed that year.

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42 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

Buffalo is probably the team that scares me the most. I feel they just match up really well against the Zips. We have absolutely no bigs with the size, speed, strength combination to match up against M'Balla. There are other teams that could beat Akron in a 1 game format, but none of them in particular scare me like Buffalo. 

Buffalo #1 in rebounding.  Akron is low in that category. 

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44 minutes ago, 1981 grad said:

I was really surprised that this rule change was not made until 2017.  I remember the 2006-2007 Akron team that won 27 games and lost in the MAC finals on a 35 foot bank shot.  I watched the NIT selection show to see who Akron would play and they showed a clip of the Akron team and then did not select them for the NIT.  Akron had a great team that was left out of the post season.  I read that ESPN had the nit pick large conference teams in order to boost tv ratings and that was why Akron was not selected.  It made national news that we got screwed that year.

 

Yeah, that Akron team being left out was a catalyst for either the CIT or CBI tournament to be created. I can't remember which.

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I clicked around on the tournament simulator and can only find one extreme scenario that puts the Zips outside the top 4 seeds.  Eastern Michigan and Ohio look like locks for 8 and 9.

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The BUGS game is pretty much for the number one seed. If the Zips win this game BUGS would have to win all of their remaining games and the Zips could still go 1-2 and get the #1 seed. Buffalo could still get the one seed in that case too but they would have to win all of their games. And still fun to see things like this. I'd love to draw Auburn. 

Screenshot_20200223-232658.png

Edited by MDZip

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Kittens and Eagles certainly helped out the Zips.  But this thing is wide open with advantage to BG.  

Edit:  EMU blew it again and Toledo went off on CMU.

Edited by NWAkron

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27 minutes ago, NWAkron said:

Kittens and Eagles certainly helped out the Zips.  But this thing is wide open with advantage to BG.  

Edit:  EMU blew it again and Toledo went off on CMU.

We should actually be cheering for CMU to win out. After the head-to-head tie-breaker, the next tie-breaker is record vs ranked MAC team. Meaning for example Buffalo finishes #3 and both BG & Akron went 1-1 they would move to the 4th team. If that 4th team is CMU, which we beat and BG lost to, we'd win head-to-head tie-breaker.

Edited by kreed5120

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3 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

We should actually be cheering for CMU to win out. After the head-to-head tie-breaker, the next tie-breaker is record vs ranked MAC team. Meaning for example Buffalo finishes #3 and both BG & Akron went 1-1 they would move to the 4th team. If that 4th team is CMU, which we beat and BG lost to, we'd win head-to-head tie-breaker.

I don't expect anything at this point.  be fun to see Eastern knock out BG in a second round game.

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