I was under the impression that the first round matchups are based off of preseason projections, not last year results.
That said, with roster turnover as rampant as it is I'm not even going to dive in to attempt to determine who will be and won't be good in the SunBelt. I follow the MAC more closely than most and I would struggle to rank them 1-12 with any confidence. No chance I could do it with the SB.