Yeah it'll be tough. More likely 3-4. However, falling one or two wins short of whatever baseline you think there should be (while still trending upward) isn't worth blowing it up if its believed there is potential for the program to keep improving. And if you are able to show improvement year over year, I'm not sure why anyone would think we can't keep improving until proven otherwise. The goal in my mind is sustainable competitiveness. If he can't compete in year 4 when he has a team filled with all his players, they're experienced, and with 2 more years to fix issues, then its time to shake things up.
We should all be looking at the patience shown to Chuck Martin and Mike Neu. It took them a while, but they got the ball rolling and their programs look like they'll be competitive for the foreseeable future. It can pay off.