I think it's going to come down to the Ohio game no matter what.
Someone correct me if I am wrong, but even if we happen to have a 1 game better record than then going into that game, it won't matter because if they win against us, they'll own the tiebreaker. That really is the game of the season. The bye week so late kind of sucks due to injury circumstances, but on the other side it is nice that it is the week before that game.