South Point Classic, Las Vegas

[lance99]

A 30-3 record is more impressive than a 26-7 record. Also, the Zips OOC schedule this season, despite not being all that great, was superior to that 06-07 OOC schedule.

That's fair. A record does not mean anything anymore due to when the College of Charleston won 30 games (if I remember correctly) and still got only a 8th seed.

Go on a super-strong long win streak, and you will be on the mix.

[LZIp]

That 30-3 Stephen F Austin team didn't get an at-large did they?

[skip-zip]

If College of Charleston won 30 games and was an 8 seed, that means they were regarded much higher by the committee than the last of the At-Large teams they would have admitted. So, 30 wins, even with the schedule they play, easily put them in the field, even if they were not a conference champ.

This is simple:

1) 30 wins would ABSOLUTELY put us in the field.

2) Winning every remaining game is unbelievably improbable.

If we're still winning in about mid-February, the odds of it happening probably become remotely possible enough to warrant a discussion.

[ZachTheZip]

RPIforecast.com has a list of probabilities for all possible regular season records Akron can achieve. Winning out is listed as 0.34%, and losing one more game is listed as 2.05%, which is actually fairly reasonable. Right now, they have Akron as most likely to end up between 22 and 25 D-I wins (Plus Hiram).

But they also predict the RPI for each of those win totals. If we won all remaining games, our RPI would be around 19 (but would change after MAC tournament games). In fact, Akron can win two more games (against good competition like Can't or EMU) and still have an RPI in the top-30, which puts us on the bubble at least.

Edited December 27, 2015 by ZachTheZip

[skip-zip]

Good find, Zach.

So basically, 50 to 1 chance that we lose only one more game, and 300 to 1 that we win out.

Makes sense.

I think maybe the toughest part of all of this is that we're talking about the possibility of winning 30 games when we've already maxed out the number of losses we can take in that scenario. Maybe it would get more serious consideration if we were sitting at 11-0 right now.

[kreed5120]

Good find, Zach.

So basically, 50 to 1 chance that we lose only one more game, and 300 to 1 that we win out.

Makes sense.

I think maybe the toughest part of all of this is that we're talking about the possibility of winning 30 games when we've already maxed out the number of losses we can take in that scenario. Maybe it would get more serious consideration if we were sitting at 11-0 right now.

I feel it's been a general consensus that a 30-3 record really isn't a realistic expectation. Akron's only good chance of getting into the tournament is winning the MAC tournament. All the other games just matter for MAC tournament and potential March Madness seeding. The MAC hasn't had an at large bid since 1999 and I don't see that changing this season.

[LoyalZIP]

I don't know, if you've seen how the rest of the MAC has played this year, 30-3 isn't as unrealistic as you'd think. It's likelihood is still astronomical, but everyone has been been either a) beating up on cupcakes b ) putting up poor performances against MAC level mid majors or c) both a and b.

When the marquee win for the conference is either Akron beating Arkansas or Ball State beating Valpo, it's probably a down year.

(Damn that Green Bay game)

Edited December 27, 2015 by LoyalZIP

[skip-zip]

Kreed....Do you really have to start the chatter about "the MAC will not get an at-large" and "the regular season is just practice for the MAC tournament" in December?

The MAC hasn't gotten an At-Large because nobody who's outside of the Tournament Champ has compiled a good enough resume for years. There's no way to know if anyone is worthy when there's almost 3 months left in the season. The only thing we know about Akron right now is that the Green Bay loss will not be looked upon very favorably if we end up with enough wins to be a serious contender.

Enjoy the REGULAR season.

[phil]

What is the harm about dreaming about an at large big. We have these discussions every season and we hope for the best although the chances of it happening are extremely slim. Early in the season we do it with the Indians and the Browns, so why not the Zips?

That being said, KD has built a winning program based upon a good team and a weak out of conference home schedule. Every time the Zips are on TV we hear about the consecutive 20 win seasons. Even ranked teams play against weak competition early in the season. The weak competition gives the Zips an opportunity to win even when they are not playing their best basketball and still trying to figure out the rotation. KD always indicates early in the season in this post game that the Zips are not playing their best ball. The weaker competition gives Robotham an opportunity to play himself into shape. It gives Josh Williams an opportunity to learn that college ball is a lot quicker than high school ball. It gives Aron Jackson and Jimond an opportunity to contribute even when they are the 9th and 10th players on the team.

But the weak competition early in the season does nothing to help our chances of getting an at large bid. Other teams build their at large resume by playing against ranked competition during league play. We play in the MAC and now there is no bracketbuster. We will not play a ranked team the rest of the season. Our best chance of getting into the tournament and winning a game in the tournament is to play our best ball at the end of the season, win the MAC, and then upset a team as a 12th or 13th seed in the NCAA tournament.

[morris buttermaker]

I heard Lipscomb is now too scared to come here

[kreed5120]

Kreed....Do you really have to start the chatter about "the MAC will not get an at-large" and "the regular season is just practice for the MAC tournament" in December?

The MAC hasn't gotten an At-Large because nobody who's outside of the Tournament Champ has compiled a good enough resume for years. There's no way to know if anyone is worthy when there's almost 3 months left in the season. The only thing we know about Akron right now is that the Green Bay loss will not be looked upon very favorably if we end up with enough wins to be a serious contender.

Enjoy the REGULAR season.

I'm not saying the MAC is destined for eternity to be a 1 bid conference. I just don't see anything changing this year. That Miami team beat Notre Dame, Tennessee, and Dayton in OOC play (ironically it lost to Green Bay). I just don't see any team in the MAC this season with that kind of OOC resume.

Perhaps Akron runs off 28-29 wins to enter bubble consideration and finds itself getting in as an at-large. If that happens, I'll be the 1st to admit that I was wrong. That doesn't mean that I won't enjoy the regular season.

[ace]

That 30-3 Stephen F Austin team didn't get an at-large did they?

No, they didn't, but they won their conference tournament. One could make the argument that they would've had a shot at an at-large, even with an SOS in the 300s, had they not won the conference tourney

[K92]

Nobody and I mean nobody gets their cart ahead of their horse more than Zips basketball posters.

God bless you and have a happy new year!

[zipnetter51]

I started tis whole 30 win discussion In a prior post-what I said is that the zips will be favored in every remaining game and I believe they will. That being said,when you look at our wins over Iona (26 win team last season and UCSB(a19 win team with virtually their whole team returning) running the table doesn't seem so implausible. I believe that both of those teams would easily be in the upper half of the MAC and we beat both by 14 pts on a neutral court. So keep believing-sometimes dreams do come true.

[LoyalZIP]

Nobody and I mean nobody gets their cart ahead of their horse more than Zips basketball posters.

God bless you and have a happy new year!

Nobody is saying that it's going to happen. The only thing being discussed is what needs to happen in order to get the at large.

[GJGood]

I have always felt that the MAC does not get the respect it deserves but that it also is not among the very least respected conferences either. Therefore, I don't think any MAC squad with three or four in conference losses will get at-large consideration unless they had a strong OOC with some big wins. I do think that a MAC team that goes 17-1 and then loses in Cleveland could be in the NCAA at-large mix. There really hasn't been a team in recent years that could test my theory though.

[skip-zip]

I noticed that at least one poster brought up the 26-7 team from 2007, and how they didn't get an at large bid.

Look at it in a little more detail. Most of the OOC games will seem similar, with the exception of the return bracket-buster game against #25 Nevada. Maybe pulling out that win could have had a greater impact. But, the losses to Illinois-Chicago and Arkansas-Little Rock were surely the nail in the coffin.

I think there is enough of a correlation with today's schedule to tell us that 26 wins still isn't enough. I'd say that the target, with this schedule, should be about 28 wins. That should put us in the mix. At 29 or 30, it would seem that we'd be very hard to pass up.

[RowdyZip]

If the Zips can continue to win into the first half of the MAC season, especially at Buffalo and at Toledo (two places we struggle, regardless of the strength of the opponent), then I'll start talking 30 wins.

That being said, if the Zip are in the 29-30 win area, they're not getting passed up. With a winning streak of that magnitude, they're in the teens of the top 25 and would be an at-large lock.

[ZippyRulz]

I'm not saying the MAC is destined for eternity to be a 1 bid conference. I just don't see anything changing this year. That Miami team beat Notre Dame, Tennessee, and Dayton in OOC play (ironically it lost to Green Bay).

I wonder if Green Bay would consider going FBS in football. If we could get them in the MAC it would really raise the bar for the conference.

[zippyman23]

We haven't blown Daniel's redshirt

He's already appeared in two games so he has blown his redshirt.

[zippy5]

He's already appeared in two games so he has blown his redshirt.

That's not how it works

[zippyman23]

That's not how it works

That is exactly how it works. One second of one game counts as a year of participation.

[Hilltopper]

You guys just need to trust KD on using Utomi. He knows what he is doing.

[g-mann17]

That is exactly how it works. One second of one game counts as a year of participation.

Right, but he could be redshirted for any single season, doesn't have to be the Freshman season.

[zippyman23]

Right, but he could be redshirted for any single season, doesn't have to be the Freshman season.

Never meant to imply otherwise.