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2015 Bowl Thread


LZIp

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I don't have much to do today since I don't have the Browns to disappoint me, so I wanted to do some digging into bowl outlook and maybe create some good karma! Me and a buddy have already said we are attending the bowl game if the Zips make one regardless of where its at. I've never really thought about it before, but as pointed out by Dr. Z I believe, it probably is really good for the program to have an extra month of practice regardless of the outcome of any game, not to mention a step forward for the program and an added recruiting point.

So I want to start by looking at the Zips remaining schedule. The Zips are currently 4-5. One would think we probably need to win out to get an invite, but I'll take a closer look at that below. The Zips currently have Miami, Buffalo, and Can't St left. Even as a Zips fan, I have to consider Miami a gimme. Miami is 2-8 with a win over Presbyterian and a 2 score win over EMU. They played Cinci surprisingly close, but on the other hand, got blown out by Ohio and about every other decent team (MAC-wise) they've played. There are only 6 teams in FBS that score less points that Miami. Their offense mixed with our defense smells like a recipe for success to me. Next is Buffalo. Buffalo is a game that can go either way. They are probably the closest equivalent to us in the conference program wise. This game will probably be critical for both us to get a bowl bid. On one hand, they have blow Ohio out and played BG close. On the other, they barely beat Miami and Can't St and got embarrassed by CMU. Finally, Can't State. Remember that poor Miami offense I pointed out above? Well Can't St's is even worse. Only 3 teams in FBS score less ppg than Can't. They've done pretty much what you'd expect out of them. A few wins over the MAC bottom dwellers and getting killed by any team that has actual talent. That coupled along with them against us at home, for the wagon-wheel, and a bowl bid on the line, I expect a W.

In this section, I'm going to take a look at the MAC bowl tie ins/current teams I'd expect to get a bid. The MAC has 5 primary bowl tie-ins: The GoDaddy bowl, Bahamas bowl, Boca Raton Bowl, Camellia Bowl, and Idaho Potato bowl. Just looking at primary ties in and assuming the Zips are bowl eligible, I'd expect these spots to be filled by Toledo, WMU, NIU, BG, and CMU. These teams are the clear cream of the crop in the MAC and will certainly earn bowl bids, IMO. This leaves us fighting with OU and Buffalo for any secondary tie-in bowl bid spots the conference may get. This is where it starts to get a little fuzzy. Based on what I have found, the MAC has a secondary tie in to the Poinsettia bowl if Army fails to be bowl eligible. Well, as of yesterday, it is impossible for Army to become bowl eligible. Ohio has Can't, Ball St, and NIU left. They are going to be bowl eligible. 6-6 at worst. If they are 6-6 and we are 7-5, I don't see how we would get a bowl bid over them based on them beating us, but its hard to understand a bowl committee's logic sometimes. Assuming all of the above comes to fruition, it looks like it will be between Buffalo and Akron looking for any scraps.

As other have pointed out on this board, as of now, there *looks* to be a shortage of bowl eligible teams this season.

This updated projection has us in the Independence bowl as a replacement (against ULL of all teams who would also be a replacement team). If it came down to us/ULL to take a replacement spot, I'd hope our convincing win over them at their place would be good enough to get the nod over them. http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/11/8/9691220/bowl-game-projections-2015-ncaa-football-playoff

This one has us in the Military bowl vs Navy http://www.si.com/college-football/2015/11/03/college-football-bowl-projections-week-9-playoff

Something I've noticed is that in both of these projections, it seems like the ACC will have difficulty filling its slots. Better yet in regards to the Military bowl, it looks like if Navy wins out, they will earn a spot in a New Years day bowl as the highest ranked G5 team.

Bottom line: It looks like if we take care of business, we will get that elusive bowl bid, but we do need things to go how they should. I'd argue that a loss to Buffalo would be more devastating than a loss to Miami or Can't, since it appears we will be fighting with them for a bowl spot. Based on projections (which I don't put a lot of stock in), it appears there is expected to be a shortage of bowl eligible teams, even though I can't find any documentation on it. However, it looks like that is the only way Akron is going to get a bowl bid.

Please share projections/anything related to Akron's chances of getting a bowl bid in this thread. Looking forward to a trip down south (or even Idaho) in December!

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http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

This updated bowl prediction by CBS has CMU as a replacement in the Cactus bowl, OU as a replacement in the Heart of Dallas bowl, Akron in the Bahamas bowl vs Marshall, and Buffalo as a replacement in the Cure bowl. A total of 8 MAC teams getting a bowl invite. That would mean 6-6 would get the job done regardless of who we lose to.

I also found this by Stewart Mandel talking about there most likely not being enough teams bowl eligible. Note that it isn't updated for this week, but still has Akron in the Cure bowl in Orlando before the win. It does seem like 6-6 will get the job done.

http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/bowl-projections-2015-cotton-orange-peach-fiesta-rose-sugar-college-football-playoff-chart-110315

Edited by LZip
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Thanks for doing the research, LZip.

I say 7-5 for sure gets us a spot (probably, based on my own speculation) in the Camellia bowl and 6-6 is a 50-50 chance of going bowling. I say the Camellia because the folks in Montgomery are fond of Bowden.

http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/story/sports/2014/12/12/terry-fills-spot-bobby-bowden-qb-club-meeting/20300825/

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I heard an ESPN radio talk show host say that "there will be lots of 5-win teams in bowls this year". If that is the case, does it mean there is no rule (or no enforcement of the rule) requiring all 7 and 6-win teams to be bowling before any 5-win teams are chosen? If not, then look for LOTS of P-5 conference schools stealing bowls from lower conferences, like...the MAC!

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I heard an ESPN radio talk show host say that "there will be lots of 5-win teams in bowls this year". If that is the case, does it mean there is no rule (or no enforcement of the rule) requiring all 7 and 6-win teams to be bowling before any 5-win teams are chosen? If not, then look for LOTS of P-5 conference schools stealing bowls from lower conferences, like...the MAC!

Don't get too worked up. 6 win teams will get it before any 5 win team.
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I heard an ESPN radio talk show host say that "there will be lots of 5-win teams in bowls this year". If that is the case, does it mean there is no rule (or no enforcement of the rule) requiring all 7 and 6-win teams to be bowling before any 5-win teams are chosen? If not, then look for LOTS of P-5 conference schools stealing bowls from lower conferences, like...the MAC!

There was a rule a few years ago that stated a team with a winning record had to be taken ahead of a six win team when there were at-large spots open because conferences could not fill their tie-ins. That rule was dropped, likely because they didn't want 7-5 MAC and Sun Belt teams having to be taken ahead of 6-6 power conference schools. I hate that they dropped that rule.

When talking about 6-win teams versus 5-win teams though you are talking about teams that are bowl-eligible versus bowl-ineligible teams grabbed up to fill slots. Dipping into the otherwise ineligible pool will only be allowed to happen after all eligible (6+ wins) teams are taken.

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Regardless of the location, I pray this team doesn't get matched against a Navy or Boise State. Please give us a ODU or a Middle Tennessee -- SOMEONE we have a chance of beating!

Beggars can't be choosers. Would we rather lose to Buffalo and Can't to avoid a tough bowl matchup? I think not.

Edited by ZippyRulz
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So, looking at the bowl picture as of this moment there are:

80 bowl spots

61 eligible teams

35 ineligible teams

That's 31 teams fighting for 18 spots. Many of them play each other in the coming weeks. It's going to be a close finish to see if there are enough eligible teams.

(edited now that all games for the week are done)

Edited by ZachTheZip
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Even if you get waxed?

Yeah. Know why? Because you're in a bowl. Something Akron has only ever done once, and that was ten years ago. And it sends a message that the team is a bowl team, not a perpetual 1-11 team, like most around the country simply assume we are. If you told most college football fans around the country that Akron is one win away from a bowl game, you'll get lots of funny looks, because the perception of the program hasn't changed yet. A bowl game, even one where you're waxed, is the single best way to shift that perception.

Plus, you get an extra month of practice. That's absolutely invaluable.

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